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U.S. inflation breaks 40-year record: Can Bitcoin serve as a hedge asset?

Many have likened BTC’s anti-inflation properties to those of gold, but there are important differences between the two assets.
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Many have likened BTC’s anti-inflation properties to those of gold, but there are important differences between the two assets.

On Feb. 9, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index, a key measure capturing the change in how much Americans pay for goods and services, has increased by 7.5% compared to the same time last year, marking the greatest year-on-year rise since 1982. In 2019, before the global COVID-19 pandemic broke out, the indicator stood at 1.8%. Such a sharp rise in inflation makes more and more people consider the old question: Could Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, become a hedge asset for high-inflation times?

What’s up with the inflation spike?

Ironically, the fundamental reason behind the unprecedented inflation spike is the U.S. economy’s strong health. Immediately after the COVID-19 crisis, when 22 million jobs were slashed and national economic output saw a massive decrease, the American economy kickstarted a massive recovery on the heels of the relative success of the vaccination campaign. However, supply chains appeared to be unprepared for such a rapid return of business activity and consumer demand.

The rebound was fueled by the Biden administration’s grandiose $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package, with the majority of American households receiving thousands of dollars in direct support by the federal government. Tom Siomades, chief investment officer at AE Wealth Management, believes that the stimulus was excessive, given the overall financial conditions of U.S. households. Speaking to Cointelegraph, he remarked:

“The $1.9 trillion CARES act in March, when Americans were already saving at a 20% rate, put more money into the economy than it could bear. That money allowed people who would otherwise have returned to work to rethink their options. This created a worker shortage, which in turn led to demand for higher wages, which meant higher costs and prices.”

Some economists point out a more subtle factor: an alarming exercise of corporate pricing power by U.S. businesses. “Now producers know people can pay more, and will be unwilling to accept lower prices for their products,” Siomades explains.

Now that inflation has become a major political problem for the Democratic Party, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s efforts to solve it. The inflation wave is likely to gradually fade, if not to pre-pandemic levels, then to at least more moderate levels by the end of the year. Nevertheless, as rising prices are becoming a matter of increasing public concern, private citizens and investment professionals alike begin to look around searching for a safe haven for their funds — and here’s where Bitcoin comes in.

Bitcoin as the “new gold”

With every year that Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency sector become more mainstream, the frequency of comparisons with gold in terms of reserve-asset potential multiplies. Many observers suggest that Bitcoin could even be more attractive than the precious metal in this regard. In November 2021, the preeminent cryptocurrency was up by 133% year-on-year against gold’s mere 4%.

As Todd Ault of investment company Ault Global Holdings observed, in the last 13 years, Bitcoin has massively outdone U.S. inflation thanks in no small part to the asset’s deflationary properties. He commented to Cointelegraph:

“What makes it a great store of value and inflation hedge is: there’s a cost associated with mining it; there will only be $21 million Bitcoin. Meaning, there is a finite amount of Bitcoin to be mined [...] Really, it’s still a standard hedge people traditionally think about; there’s limited supply, and even in the current financial climate, it will continue to be in demand.”

Unlike gold, Bitcoin lacks the key features of a predictable, low-volatility asset. Maybe this doesn’t pose as much of a problem for a faithful, diamond-hands hodler who believes in Bitcoin’s ultimate monetary dominance, but for someone who has invested a significant share of their personal savings as a shield from inflation, the unpredictability could be unnerving. In some sense, Bitcoin’s price swings strongly contrast the relative stability of gold, which serves not as a wealth multiplier, but as a preserver of purchasing power.

“In theory, Bitcoin should make for a good inflation hedge because there’s a limited supply of tokens that can be mined. That creates a form of scarcity, which could help it hold its value over time compared to fiat currencies,” as Katie Brockman, analyst at investment advising firm The Motley Fool, explained to Cointelegraph. However, Bitcoin can only be a store of value if a significant number of people find it valuable. Brockman added:

“It doesn’t appear that Bitcoin has reached that stage. While inflation has soared, the price of Bitcoin has plummeted in recent months. It has also fallen at roughly the same rate as meme tokens like Dogecoin, suggesting that many investors perceive Bitcoin as simply another cryptocurrency rather than a store of value.”

However, just because Bitcoin is an imperfect hedge against inflation right now doesn’t necessarily mean it will never be a dominant store of value. But if the currency is to become inflation-proof, it will need to gain both widespread acceptance and a robust mainstream reputation.

Hedge over time

Bitcoin’s status will also depend on how investors choose to use it. If people are holding their BTC bags as a hedge against inflation, it may not be subject to the same volatility cycles as equity markets. But if most investors are trading Bitcoin like they would stocks, the asset’s price could be more correlated with the market’s fluctuations.

The future looks bright for the top cryptocurrency, although the timeline is less clear. Ault believes the volatility may stop at the price of about $2 million per BTC. He added:

“In the process, Bitcoin is expected to become a multi-trillion-dollar asset class. That doesn’t make it a direct hedge, but rather a hedge over time.”

One problem that could become more pronounced in the future is uneven distribution of crypto wealth. As the interest in BTC grows in waves and the entry cost for investment grows rapidly, it is inevitable that large chunks of its monetary stock will concentrate among a limited number of wallets.

That brings us to Bitcoin’s paradox. It seems that to become the “new gold” in terms of conservative inflation hedging, the original cryptocurrency needs to outgrow its speculative attractiveness and become a broadly (and, perhaps, more evenly) dispersed mass of money. A sound regulatory framework for crypto is one thing that could definitely help the asset class achieve these goals.

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Pharma industry reputation remains steady at a ‘new normal’ after Covid, Harris Poll finds

The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45%…

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The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45% of US respondents in 2023, according to the latest Harris Poll data. That’s exactly the same as the previous year.

Pharma’s highest point was in February 2021 — as Covid vaccines began to roll out — with a 62% positive US perception, and helping the industry land at an average 55% positive sentiment at the end of the year in Harris’ 2021 annual assessment of industries. The pharma industry’s reputation hit its most recent low at 32% in 2019, but it had hovered around 30% for more than a decade prior.

Rob Jekielek

“Pharma has sustained a lot of the gains, now basically one and half times higher than pre-Covid,” said Harris Poll managing director Rob Jekielek. “There is a question mark around how sustained it will be, but right now it feels like a new normal.”

The Harris survey spans 11 global markets and covers 13 industries. Pharma perception is even better abroad, with an average 58% of respondents notching favorable sentiments in 2023, just a slight slip from 60% in each of the two previous years.

Pharma’s solid global reputation puts it in the middle of the pack among international industries, ranking higher than government at 37% positive, insurance at 48%, financial services at 51% and health insurance at 52%. Pharma ranks just behind automotive (62%), manufacturing (63%) and consumer products (63%), although it lags behind leading industries like tech at 75% positive in the first spot, followed by grocery at 67%.

The bright spotlight on the pharma industry during Covid vaccine and drug development boosted its reputation, but Jekielek said there’s maybe an argument to be made that pharma is continuing to develop innovative drugs outside that spotlight.

“When you look at pharma reputation during Covid, you have clear sense of a very dynamic industry working very quickly and getting therapies and products to market. If you’re looking at things happening now, you could argue that pharma still probably doesn’t get enough credit for its advances, for example, in oncology treatments,” he said.

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Spread & Containment

I created a ‘cosy game’ – and learned how they can change players’ lives

Cosy, personal games, as I discovered, can change the lives of the people who make them and those who play them.

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Cosy games exploded in popularity during the pandemic. Takoyaki Tech/Shutterstock

The COVID pandemic transformed our lives in ways many of us are still experiencing, four years later. One of these changes was the significant uptake in gaming as a hobby, chief among them being “cosy games” like Animal Crossing: New Horizons (2020).

Players sought comfort in these wholesome virtual worlds, many of which allowed them to socialise from the safety of their homes. Cosy games, with their comforting atmospheres, absence of winning or losing, simple gameplay, and often heartwarming storylines provided a perfect entry point for a new hobby. They also offered predictability and certainty at a time when there wasn’t much to go around.

Cosy games are often made by small, independent developers. “Indie games” have long been evangelised as the purest form of game development – something anyone can do, given enough perseverance. This means they can provide an entry point for creators who hadn’t made games before, but were nevertheless interested in it, enabling a new array of diverse voices and stories to be heard.

In May 2020, near the start of the pandemic, the small poetry game A Solitary Spacecraft, which was about its developer’s experience of their first few months in lockdown, was lauded as particularly poignant. Such games showcase a potential angle for effective cosy game development: a personal one.

Personal themes are often explored through cosy games. For instance, Chicory and Venba (both released in 2023) tackle difficult topics like depression and immigration, despite their gorgeous aesthetics. This showcases the diversity of experiences on display within the medium.

However, as the world emerges from the pandemic’s shadow, the games industry is facing significant challenges. Economic downturns and acquisitions have caused large layoffs across the sector.

Historically, restructurings like these, or discontent with working conditions, have led talented laid-off developers to create their own companies and explore indie development. In the wake of the pandemic and the cosy game boom, these developers may have more personal stories to tell.

Making my own cosy game

I developed my own cosy and personal game during the pandemic and quickly discovered that creating these games in a post-lockdown landscape is no mean feat.

What We Take With Us (2023) merges reality and gameplay across various digital formats: a website, a Discord server that housed an online alternate reality game and a physical escape room. I created the game during the pandemic as a way to reflect on my journey through it, told through the videos of game character Ana Kirlitz.

The trailer for my game, What We Take With Us.

Players would follow in Ana’s footsteps by completing a series of ten tasks in their real-world space, all centred on improving wellbeing – something I and many others desperately needed during the pandemic.

But creating What We Take With Us was far from straightforward. There were pandemic hurdles like creating a physical space for an escape room amid social distancing guidelines. And, of course, the emotional difficulties of wrestling with my pandemic journey through the game’s narrative.

The release fared poorly, and the game only garnered a small player base – a problem emblematic of the modern games industry.

These struggles were starkly contrasted by the feedback I received from players who played the game, however.

This is a crucial lesson for indie developers: the creator’s journey and the player’s experience are often worlds apart. Cosy, personal games, as I discovered, can change the lives of those who play them, no matter how few they reach. They can fundamentally change the way we think about games, allow us to reconnect with old friends, or even inspire us to change careers – all real player stories.

Lessons in cosy game development

I learned so much about how cosy game development can be made more sustainable for creators navigating the precarious post-lockdown landscape. This is my advice for other creators.

First, collaboration is key. Even though many cosy or personal games (like Stardew Valley) are made by solo creators, having a team can help share the often emotional load. Making games can be taxing, so practising self-care and establishing team-wide support protocols is crucial. Share your successes and failures with other developers and players. Fostering a supportive community is key to success in the indie game landscape.

Second, remember that your game, however personal, is a product – not a reflection of you or your team. Making this distinction will help you manage expectations and cope with feedback.

Third, while deeply considering your audience may seem antithetical to personal projects, your game will ultimately be played by others. Understanding them will help you make better games.

The pandemic reignited the interest in cosy games, but subsequent industry-wide troubles may change games, and the way we make them, forever. Understanding how we make game creation more sustainable in a post-lockdown, post-layoff world is critical for developers and players alike.

For developers, it’s a reminder that their stories, no matter how harrowing, can still meaningfully connect with people. For players, it’s an invitation to embrace the potential for games to tell such stories, fostering empathy and understanding in a world that greatly needs it.


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Adam Jerrett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Government

The SNF Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research announces new advisory board

From identifying the influenza virus that caused the pandemic of 1918 to developing vaccines against pneumococcal pneumonia and bacterial meningitis in…

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From identifying the influenza virus that caused the pandemic of 1918 to developing vaccines against pneumococcal pneumonia and bacterial meningitis in the 1970s, combating infectious disease has a rich history at Rockefeller. That tradition continues as the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research at Rockefeller University (SNFiRU) caps a successful first year with the establishment of a new advisory board.

Credit: Lori Chertoff/The Rockefeller University

From identifying the influenza virus that caused the pandemic of 1918 to developing vaccines against pneumococcal pneumonia and bacterial meningitis in the 1970s, combating infectious disease has a rich history at Rockefeller. That tradition continues as the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research at Rockefeller University (SNFiRU) caps a successful first year with the establishment of a new advisory board.

This international advisory board was created in part to give guidance on how to best use SNFiRU’s resources, as well as bring forward innovative ideas concerning new avenues of research, public education, community engagement, and partnership projects.

SNFiRU was established to strengthen readiness for and response to future health crises, building on the scientific advances and international collaborations forged in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Launched with a $75 million grant from the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (SNF) as part of its Global Health Initiative (GHI), the institute provides a framework for international scientific collaboration to foster research innovations and turn them into practical health benefits.

SNFiRU’s mission is to better understand the agents that cause infectious disease and to lower barriers to treatment and prevention globally. To speed this work, the institute launched numerous initiatives in its inaugural year. For instance, SNFiRU awarded 31 research projects in 29 different Rockefeller laboratories for over $5 million to help get collaborative new research efforts off the ground. SNFiRU also supports the Rockefeller University Hospital, where clinical studies are conducted, and brought on board its first physician-scientist through Rockefeller’s Clinical Scholars program. “One of the surprises was the scope of interest from Rockefeller scientists in using their talents to tackle important infectious disease problems,” says Charles M. Rice, Maurice R. and Corinne P. Greenberg Professor in Virology at Rockefeller and director of SNFiRU. “The research topics range from the biology of infectious agents to the dynamics of the immune response to pathogens, and also include a number of infectious disease-adjacent studies.”

In the past 12 months, SNFiRU often brought together scientists studying different aspects of infectious disease as a way to spur new collaborations. In addition to hosting its first annual day-long symposium, SNFiRU initiated a Young Scientist Forum for students and post-doctoral fellows to meet regularly, facilitating cross-laboratory thinking. A bimonthly seminar series has also been established on campus.

Another aim of SNFiRU is to develop relationships with community-based organizations, as well as design and participate in community-engaged research, with a focus on low-income and minority communities. To that end, SNFiRU is helping develop a research project on Chagas disease, a tropical parasitic infection prevalent in Latin America that can cause congestive heart failure and gastrointestinal complications if left untreated. The project will bring together clinicians practicing at health centers in New York, Florida, Texas, and California and basic scientists from multiple institutions to help the communities that are most impacted.

“The SNFiRU international advisory board convenes globally recognized leaders with distinguished biomedical expertise, unrivalled experience in pandemic preparedness and response, and a shared commitment to translating scientific advancements into equitably distributed benefits in real-world settings,” says SNF Co-President Andreas Dracopoulos. “The advisory board will advance the institute’s indispensable mission, which SNF is proud to support as a key part of our Global Health Initiative, and we look forward to seeing breakthroughs in the lab drive better outcomes in lives around the globe.”

The new advisory board will hold its first meeting on April 11th, 2024, following the second annual SNF Institute for Global Infectious Disease Research Symposium at Rockefeller.

Its members are: Rafi Ahmed of Emory University School of Medicine, Cori Bargmann of The Rockefeller University, Yasmin Belkaid of the Pasteur Institute, Anthony S. Fauci, the former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Peter Hotez of Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development, Esper Kallas of of the Butantan Institute, Sharon Lewin of the University of Melbourne Doherty Institue, Carl Nathan of Weill Cornell Medicine, Rino Rappuoli of Fondazione Biotecnopolo di Siena and University of Siena, and Herbert “Skip” Virgin of Washington University School of Medicine and UT Southwestern Medical Center.


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