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Tverberg: The World Has A Major Crude Oil Problem; Expect Conflict Ahead

Tverberg: The World Has A Major Crude Oil Problem; Expect Conflict Ahead

Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

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Tverberg: The World Has A Major Crude Oil Problem; Expect Conflict Ahead

Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

Media outlets tend to make it sound as if all our economic problems are temporary problems, related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In fact, world crude oil production has been falling behind needed levels since 2019. This problem, by itself, encourages the world economy to contract in unexpected ways, including in the form of economic lockdowns and aggression between countries. This crude oil shortfall seems likely to become greater in the years ahead, pushing the world economy toward conflict and the elimination of inefficient players.

To me, crude oil production is of particular importance because this form of oil is especially useful. With refining, it can operate tractors used to cultivate crops, and it can operate trucks to bring food to stores to sell. With refining, it can be used to make jet fuel. It can also be refined to make fuel for earth moving equipment used in road building. In recent years, it has become common to publish “all liquids” amounts, which include liquid fuels such as ethanol and natural gas liquids. These fuels have uses when energy density is not important, but they do not operate the heavy machinery needed to maintain today’s economy.

In this post, I provide an overview of the crude oil situation as I see it. In my analysis, I utilize crude oil production data by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) that has only recently become available for the full year of 2021. In some exhibits, I also make estimates for the first quarter of 2022 based on preliminary information for this period.

[1] World crude oil production grew marginally in 2021.

Figure 1. World crude oil production based on EIA international data through December 31, 2021.

Crude oil production for the year 2021 was a disappointment for those hoping that production would rapidly bounce back to at least the 2019 level. World crude oil production increased by 1.4% in 2021, to 77.0 million barrels per day, after a decrease of -7.5% in 2020. If we look back, we can see that the highest year of crude oil production was in 2018, not 2019. Oil production in 2021 was still 5.9 million barrels per day below the 2018 level.

With respect to the overall increase in crude oil production of 1.4% in 2021, OPEC helped bring this average up with an increase of 3.0% in 2021. Russia also helped, with an increase of 2.5%. The United States helped pull the world crude increase down, with a decrease in production of -1.1% in 2021. In Section [5], more information will be provided with respect to crude production for these groupings.

[2] The growth in world crude oil production shows an amazingly steady relationship to the growth in world population since 1991. The major exception is the decrease in consumption that took place in 2020, with the lockdowns that changed consumption patterns.

Figure 2. World per capita crude oil production based on EIA international data through December 31, 2021, together with UN 2019 population estimates. The UN’s estimated historical amounts were used through 2020; the “low growth” estimate was used for 2021.

Figure 2 indicates that, up through 2018, each person in the world consumed an average of around 4.0 barrels of crude oil. This equates to 168 US gallons or 636 liters of crude per year. Much of this crude is used by businesses and governments to produce the basic goods we expect from our economy, including food and roads.

A big downshift occurred in 2020 with the COVID lockdowns. Many people began working from home; international travel was scaled back. The reduction of these uses of oil helped bring down total world usage. Changes such as these explain the big dip in crude oil production (and consumption) in 2020, which continued into 2021.

Even in 2019, the world economy was starting to scale back. Beginning in early 2018, China banned the importation of many types of materials for recycling, and other countries soon followed suit. As a result, less oil was used for transporting materials across the ocean for recycling. (Subsidies for recycling were helping to pay for this oil.) Loss of recycling and other cutbacks (especially in China and India) led to fewer people in these countries being able to afford automobiles and smartphones. Lower production of these devices contributed to the lower use of crude oil.

On Figure 2, there is a slight year-to-year variation in crude oil per capita. The single highest year over the time period shown is 2005, with 2004 not far behind. This was about the time many people think that conventional oil production “peaked,” reducing the availability of inexpensive-to-produce oil.

[3] Crude oil prices dropped dramatically when economies were shut in, beginning in March 2020. Prices began spiking the summer and fall of 2021, as the world economy attempted to open up. This pattern suggests that the real problem is tight crude oil supply when the economy is not artificially constrained by COVID restrictions.

Figure 3. Average weekly Brent oil price in chart prepared by EIA, through April 8, 2022. Amounts are not adjusted for inflation.

An analysis of price trends suggests that most of the recent spike in crude prices is due to the tightness of the crude oil supply, rather than the Ukraine conflict. The Brent oil price dropped to an average of $14.24 in the week ending April 24, 2020, not long after COVID restrictions were enacted. When the economy started to reopen, in the week ending July 2, 2021, the average price rose to $76.26. By the week ending January 28, 2022, the average price had risen to $90.22.

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The Brent spot price on February 23, 2022, was $99.29. Brent prices briefly spiked higher, with weekly average prices rising as high as $123.60, for the week ending March 25, 2022. The current Brent oil price is about $107. If we compare the current price to the price the day before the invasion began, the price is only $8 higher. Even compared to the January 28 weekly average of $90.22, the current price is $17 higher.

Saying that the Ukraine invasion is causing the current high price is mostly a convenient excuse, suggesting that the high prices will suddenly disappear if this conflict disappears. The sad truth is that depletion is causing the cost of extraction to rise. Governments of oil exporting countries also need high prices to enable high taxes on exported oil. We are increasingly experiencing a conflict between the prices that the customers can afford and the prices that those doing the extraction require. In my view, most oil exporting countries need a price in excess of $120 per barrel to meet all of their needs, including reinvestment and taxes. Consumers would prefer oil prices under $50 per barrel to keep the price of food and transportation low.

[4] Food prices tend to rise when oil prices are high because products made from crude oil are used in the production and transport of food.

History shows that bad things tend to happen when food prices are very high, including riots by unhappy citizens. This is a major reason that high oil prices tend to lead to conflict.

Figure 4. FAO inflation-adjusted monthly food price index. Source.

[5] Quarterly crude oil data suggests that few opportunities exist to raise crude oil production to the level needed for the world economy to operate at the level it operated at in 2018 or 2019.

Figure 5 shows quarterly world crude oil production broken down into four groupings: OPEC, US, Russia, and “All Other.”

Figure 5. Quarterly crude oil production through first quarter of 2022. Amounts through December 2021 are EIA international estimates. Increase in OPEC first quarter of 2022 production is estimated based on OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, April 2022. US crude oil production for first quarter of 2022 estimated based on preliminary EIA indications. Russia and All Other production for first quarter of 2022 are estimated based on recent trends.

Figure 5 shows four very different patterns of past growth in crude oil supply. The All Other grouping is generally trending a bit downward in terms of quantity supplied. If world per capita crude oil production is to stay at least level, the total production of the other three groupings (OPEC, US, and Russia) needs to be rising to offset this decline. In fact, it needs to rise enough that overall crude production growth keeps up with population growth.

Russian Crude Oil Production

The data underlying Figure 5 shows that up until the COVID restrictions, Russia’s crude oil production was increasing by 1.4% per year between early 2005 and early 2020. During the same period, world population was increasing by about 1.2%. Thus, Russia’s oil production has been part of what has helped keep world crude production about level, on a per capita basis. Also, Russia seems to have made up most of its temporary decrease in production related to COVID restrictions by the first quarter of 2022.

US Crude Oil Production

Growth in US crude oil production has been more of a “feast or famine” situation. This can be seen both in Figure 5 above and in Figure 6 below.

Figure 6. US crude oil production based on EIA data. First quarter of 2022 amount is estimated based on EIA weekly and monthly indications.

US crude oil production spurted up rapidly in the 2011 to 2014 period, when oil prices were high (Figure 3). When oil prices fell in late 2014, US crude production fell for about two years. US oil production began to rise again in late 2016, as oil prices rose again. By early 2019 (when oil prices were again lower), US crude oil growth began to slow down.

In early 2020, COVID lockdowns brought a 15% drop in crude oil production (considering quarterly production), most of which has not been made up. In fact, growth after the lockdowns has been slow, similar to the level of growth during the “growth slowdown” circled in Figure 6. We hear reports that the sweet spots in shale formations have largely been drilled. This leaves mostly high-cost areas left to drill. Also, investors would like better financial discipline. Ramping up greatly, and then cutting back, is no way to operate a successful company.

Thus, while growth in US crude oil production greatly supported world growth in crude oil production in the 2009 to 2018 period, it is impossible to see this pattern continuing. Getting crude oil production back up to the level of 12 million barrels a day where it was before the COVID restrictions would be extremely difficult. Further production growth, to support the growing needs of an expanding world population, is likely impossible.

OPEC Crude Oil Production

Figure 7 shows EIA crude oil production estimates for the total group of countries that are now members of OPEC. It also shows crude oil production excluding the two countries which have recently been subject to sanctions: Iran and Venezuela.

Figure 7. OPEC crude oil production to December 31, 2021, based on EIA data. Estimates for first quarter of 2022 based on indications from OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, April 2022.

If Iran and Venezuela are removed, OPEC’s long-term production is surprisingly “flat.” The “peak” period of production is the fourth quarter of 2018. The fourth quarter of 2018 was the time when the OPEC countries were producing as much oil as they could, to get their production quotas as high as possible after the planned cutbacks that took effect at the beginning of 2019.

Strangely, EIA data indicates that production didn’t fall very much for this group of countries (OPEC excluding Iran and Venezuela), starting in early 2019. The 2019 cutback seems mostly to have affected the production of Iran and Venezuela. It was only later, in the first three quarters of 2020, when COVID restrictions were affecting worldwide production, that crude oil production for OPEC excluding Iran and Venezuela fell by 4 million barrels per day. Production for this group then began to rise, leaving a shortfall of about 900,000 barrels a day, relative to where it had been before the 2020 lockdowns.

It seems to me that, at most, production for the group of OPEC countries excluding Iran and Venezuela can be ramped up by 900,000 barrels a day, and even this is “iffy.” Iraq is reported to be having difficulty with its production; it needs more investment, or its production will fall. Nigeria is past peak, and it is also having difficulty with its production. The high reported crude oil reserves are meaningless; the question is, “How much can these countries produce when it is required?” It doesn’t look like production can be ramped up very much. Furthermore, we cannot count on continued long-term growth in production from these countries, such as would be needed to keep pace with rising world population.

Figure 8. Crude oil production indications for Iran and Venezuela, based on EIA data through December 31, 2021. Change in oil production for first quarter of 2021 is estimated based on OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, April 2022.

Figure 8 suggests that, indeed, Iran might be able to raise its production by perhaps 1.0 million barrels a day when sanctions are lifted.

Venezuela looks like a country whose crude oil production was already declining before sanctions were imposed. The cost of production there was likely far higher than the world oil price. Also, Venezuela has oil debts to China that it needs to repay. At most, we might expect that Venezuela’s production could be raised by 300,000 barrels per day in the absence of sanctions.

Putting the three estimates of amounts that crude oil production can perhaps be raised together, we have:

  • OPEC ex Iran and Venezuela: 900,000 bpd

  • Iran: 1,000,000 bpd

  • Venezuela: 300,000 bpd

  • Total: 2.2 million bpd

The shortfall of crude oil production in 2021, relative to 2018 production, was 5.9 million bpd, as mentioned in Section [1]. The 2.2 million barrels per day possibly available from this analysis gets us nowhere near the 2018 level. Furthermore, we have nowhere to go to obtain the rising crude oil production required to support the rising population with enough crude oil to supply food and industrial goods at today’s consumption level.

[6] Eliminating, or even reducing, Russia’s crude oil production is certain to have an adverse impact on the world economy.

Figure 9 shows the step-down in crude oil production that occurred in early 2020 and indicates that the world’s oil supply is having difficulty getting back up to pre-COVID levels. If Russia’s crude oil production were to be eliminated, it would make for another step-down of comparable magnitude. Major segments of the economy would likely need to be eliminated.

Figure 9. Quarterly crude oil production through first quarter of 2022 divided by world population estimates based on 2019 UN population estimates. Crude oil amounts through December 2021 are EIA estimates. Crude oil production estimates for first quarter 2022 are as described in the caption to Figure 5.

[7] When there isn’t enough crude oil to go around, the naive belief is that oil prices will rise and either more oil will be found, or substitutes will take its place. In fact, the result may be conflict and elimination of segments of the economy.

Our self-organizing economy will tend to adapt in its own way to inadequate crude oil supplies. Eventually, the economy may collapse completely, but before that happens, changes are likely to happen to try to preserve the “better functioning” parts of the economy. In this way, perhaps parts of the world economy can continue to function for a while longer while getting rid of less productive parts of the economy.

The following is a partial list of ways the economy might adapt:

  • Fighting may take place over the remaining crude oil supplies. This may be the underlying reason for the conflict between NATO and Russia, with respect to Ukraine.

  • COVID lockdowns indirectly reduce demand for crude oil. A person might wonder whether the current COVID lockdowns in China are partly aimed at preventing oil and other commodity prices from rising to absurd levels.

  • Some organizations may disappear from the world economy because of inadequate funding or lack of profitability.

  • Additional supply lines are likely to break, allowing fewer types of goods and services to be made.

  • The world economy may subdivide into multiple pieces, with each piece able to make a much more limited array of goods and services than is provided today. A shift toward the use of other currencies instead of the US dollar may be part of this shift.

  • World population may shrink for multiple reasons, including poor nutrition and epidemics.

  • The poor, the elderly and the disabled may be increasingly cut off from government programs, as total goods and services (including total food supplies) fall too low.

  • Europe could be cut off from Russian fossil fuel exports, leaving relatively more for the rest of the world.

[8] Countries that are major importers of crude oil and crude oil products would seem to be at significant risk of reduced supply if there is not enough crude oil to go around.

Figure 10 shows a rough estimate of the ratio of crude oil produced to crude oil products consumed in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. On an “All Liquids” basis, the US ratio of crude oil production to consumption would appear higher than shown on Figure 10 because of its unusually high share of natural gas liquids, ethanol, and “refinery gain” in its liquids production. If these types of production are omitted, the US still seems to have a deficit in producing the crude oil it consumes.

 

Figure 10. Rough estimate of ratio of crude oil produce to the quantity of crude oil products consumed, based on “Crude oil production” and “Oil: Regional consumption – by product group” in BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Russia+ includes Russia plus the other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Perhaps all that is needed is the general idea. If inadequate crude oil is available, all of the countries at the left of Figure 10 are quite vulnerable because they are very dependent on imports. Russia and the Middle East are prime targets for countries that are desperate for crude oil.

[9] Conclusion: We are likely entering a period of conflict and confusion because of the way the world’s self-organizing economy behaves when there is an inadequate supply of crude oil.

The issue of how important crude oil is to the world economy has been left out of most textbooks for years. Instead, we were taught creative myths covering several topics:

  • Huge amounts of fossil fuels will be available in the future

  • Climate change is our worst problem

  • Wind and solar will save us

  • A fast transition to an all-electric economy is possible

  • Electric cars are the future

  • The economy will grow forever

Now we are running into a serious shortfall of crude oil. We can expect a new set of problems, including far more conflict. Wars are likely. Debt defaults are likely. Political parties will take increasingly divergent positions on how to work around current problems. News media will increasingly tell the narrative that their owners and advertisers want told, with little regard for the real situation.

About all we can do is enjoy each day we have and try not to be disturbed by the increasing conflict around us. It becomes clear that many of us will not live as long or well as we previously expected, regardless of savings or supposed government programs. There is no real way to fix this issue, except perhaps to make religion and the possibility of life after death more of a focus.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/30/2022 - 20:30

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Economics

YTD 2022 saw dramatic slowdown in global IPO activity from a record year in 2021

YTD 2022 saw dramatic slowdown in global IPO activity from a record year in 2021
PR Newswire
LONDON, June 29, 2022

Global IPO volumes fell 46%, with proceeds down by 58% 1H year-over-year With global activity almost halved in YTD 2022, the Americas…

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YTD 2022 saw dramatic slowdown in global IPO activity from a record year in 2021

PR Newswire

  • Global IPO volumes fell 46%, with proceeds down by 58% 1H year-over-year
  • With global activity almost halved in YTD 2022, the Americas market recorded the biggest decline
  • Middle East and India were some of the rare bright spots amidst a bearish market

LONDON, June 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- IPO momentum continued to slow from Q1 into Q2, resulting in a considerable decline in both deal numbers and proceeds. Heightened volatility caused by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors, declining valuation and poor post-IPO share price performance led to the postponement of many IPOs during the quarter. The dramatic slowdown in IPO activity in YTD 2022 after a record year in 2021 was experienced across most major markets.

For Q2 2022, the global IPO market saw 305 deals raising US$40.6b in proceeds, a decrease of 54% and 65%, respectively, year-over-year (YOY). YTD 2022, there were a total of 630 IPOs raising US$95.4b in proceeds, reflecting decreases of 46% and 58%, respectively, YOY.

The 10 largest IPOs by proceeds raised US$40b, with energy dominating three of the top four deals, replacing the technology sector as the top IPO fund raiser. The technology sector continued to lead by number, but the average IPO deal size came down from US$293m to US$137m, whereas energy has overtaken to lead by proceeds with average deal size increasing from US$191m to US$680m YOY.

Special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPOs are significantly down in line with traditional IPO activity despite new markets joining. The SPAC market has been challenged this year as a result of broader market conditions, regulatory uncertainty and increased redemptions. A record number of existing SPACs are actively seeking targets with the majority of them facing potential expiration in the next year. However, market performance and regulatory clarity will likely drive future deal flow.

In line with the sharp decline in global IPO activity, there was a sizable fall in cross-border activity affected by geopolitical pressures and government policies on overseas listings. These and other findings were published in the EY Global IPO Trends Q2 2022.

Overall regional performance: investors are refocusing on fundamentals

The Americas region completed 41 deals in Q2 2022, raising US$2.5b in proceeds, a decline of 73% in the number of deals and a 95% fall in proceeds YOY. The Asia-Pacific region recorded 181 IPOs, raising US$23.3b in proceeds in Q2, a decline YOY of 37% for volume and 42% in proceeds. EMEIA market IPO activity in Q2 2022 reported 83 deals and raised US$14.8b in proceeds, a YOY decline of 62% and 44%, respectively.

Given the tightened market liquidity and significant decline in stock prices of many new economy companies that went public during the last two years, investors are becoming more selective and are refocusing on the companies' fundamentals instead of just "growth" stories and projections, e.g., sustainable profits and free cash flows.

Paul Go, EY Global IPO Leader, says:

"Any initial momentum carried from a record IPO year of 2021 was quickly lost in the face of increasing market volatility from rising geopolitical tensions, unfavorable macroeconomic factors, weakening stock market/valuation and disappointing post-IPO performance, which further deterred IPO investor sentiment. With tightening market liquidity, investors have become more selective and are refocusing on companies that demonstrate resilient business models and profitable growth, while embedding ESG [environmental, social and governance] as part of their core business values."

Americas saw notable slowdown in IPO activity

Overall, IPO activity in the Americas region saw the sharpest decline (among all regions) in Q2 2022 compared with Q2 2021, with deals down 73% (41 IPOs) and proceeds falling by 95% (US$2.5b). However, compared with Q1 2022, both number of deals and proceeds are up (14% and 6%, respectively).

In the US, an overwhelming majority of 2021 IPOs are trading below offer price, and average performance is trailing broader market declines, influencing investor appetite to participate in new transactions. Despite the much-reduced level of global cross-border IPO activity YTD 2022, the US remains the top cross-border destination.

In Canada, following a record-breaking 2021, one listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange in May 2022 broke the drought in IPO activity. Market turmoil and uncertainties had shut down the TSX's main market listings in 2022, but there are companies in the pipeline that will be able to take advantage of the opportunity once the markets reopen.

Brazil's IPO market slowed to a crawl at the start of 2022 as dozens of companies scrapped or postponed deals. This is the first time that Brazil experienced a dearth of IPOs in the first half of the year since 2016. Market volatility is expected to continue as high inflation persists and interest rates climb to double digits.

Rachel Gerring, EY Americas IPO Leader, says:

"IPO activity across the Americas remains muted amid macroeconomic headwinds that continue to impact performance and valuation. These headwinds have led to a 'wait-and-see' approach. When markets begin to recover and confidence steadies, the types of companies that will kickstart the IPO market will likely be profitable, cash flow-oriented and with meaningful scale. Once the IPO market reopens, companies that move quickly will be able to take advantage of the most opportune moment."

Asia-Pacific IPO market was weakened in 2022

The Asia-Pacific area finished the quarter with a 42% decline in proceeds and 37% decline in deals YOY. However, Asia-Pacific markets performed relatively better benefiting from the two largest global IPOs YTD. The region saw 181 IPOs raising US$23.3b in proceeds during Q2, and 367 IPOs raising US$66.0b in proceeds YTD 2022. In terms of sector activity YTD, materials led the way with 78 IPOs, closely followed by industrials with 77 IPOs. YTD, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had the highest number of deals with 82, constituting 13% of global IPOs. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Stock Exchange had the highest proceeds with US$32.8b, making up 34% of global IPOs YTD.

YTD 2022, Greater China saw a YOY decline of 36% in deals (191) and a 16% fall in proceeds (US$51.2b). A convergence of factors (COVID-19 restrictions, geopolitical unrest, weakened stock market, economic uncertainty and rising interest rates) had a negative impact on IPO activity in Hong Kong. With COVID-19 restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing lifting, along with the State Council's 33 stabilization policies and measures, China's economy is expected to rebound significantly in Q3 2022 and boost investor sentiment.

Japan saw 37 IPOs raise US$0.5b in total proceeds YTD, down 84% in proceeds and 31% in deals, YOY. Deteriorating investor sentiment is primarily driven by geopolitical conflicts, rising energy prices and depreciation of the Japanese yen. Tokyo Stock Exchange has been restructured into three new market segments – Prime, Standard, and Growth – to boost investor sentiment and gain global market share.

YOY, Australia and New Zealand IPO activity witnessed a modest YTD decline in number of IPOs (3%). However, the decline in proceeds was substantial (76%). It can be attributed to several big IPOs being deferred to 2022 Q3/Q4. While fundraising activities have slowed down mostly due to poor investor sentiment, there have been some M&A activities, including demerger and IPO transactions for carved-out businesses.

Ringo Choi, EY Asia-Pacific IPO Leader, says:

"A multitude of factors, from COVID-19 restrictions and war in Europe to rising inflation rates and US/China tensions, have weakened Asia-Pacific's IPO market in the first half of 2022. But a series of positive economic developments and new government policies in China should result in renewed optimism and a revival in IPO activity across the Asia-Pacific region for the remainder of the year."

EMEIA's IPO market continues to be affected by market volatility

In Q2, EMEIA remains the second largest IPO market after Asia-Pacific and saw 83 IPOs (a decline of 62% YOY) and proceeds raised were US$14.8b (a 44% decline YOY). YTD, there were 186 IPOs with US$24.4b in proceeds.

In the second quarter of 2022, deal numbers in Europe were 43 with proceeds of US$1.5b raised. Europe accounted for 15% of global IPO deals and 4% of proceeds in YTD 2022. Two European exchanges were among the top 12 exchanges by proceeds and one of them by number of deals.

During YTD 2022, India was the only region to witness a YOY rise in IPO activity, both by number of deals (18%) and proceeds (19%), with 32 IPOs in Q2 2022 comprising one of the largest ever IPOs in India that raised US$2.7b.

MENA IPO activity continues to look promising after a strong start to the year, despite uncertainties that are affecting the global IPO outlook. While there was a decline in terms of number of deals (54%), and with seven IPOs in Q2, several mega IPOs (IPOs with proceeds equal to or greater than US$1b) in the region led to a YOY increase of 382% in proceeds during YTD 2022, with 31 IPOs raising US$14.5b in proceeds. The region witnessed four of the top 10 global IPOs YTD.

In the UK, the slower pace of IPO activity was due to a dip in investor confidence from Q4 2021 that carried into 2022. YTD 2022 saw 13 IPOs (with 4 IPOs in Q2) with total proceeds of US$149m, a YOY decline of 71% by volume and 99% fall by proceeds. However, the UK markets regulator has set out plans to simplify listing on the London Stock Exchange to attract more fast-growing tech groups and start-ups in the face of increased competition from the US and the EU.

Dr. Martin Steinbach, EY EMEIA IPO Leader, says:

"Tough times and unusual uncertainties kept market volatility at elevated levels and led to subdued IPO activity. We are seeing investors being more selective and a shift to IPO stories related to energy transition and ESG."

Q3 2022 outlook: uncertainties and volatility are likely to remain

There were many mega IPOs postponed in the first half of 2022, which represent a healthy pipeline of deals that are likely to come to the market when the current uncertainties and volatility subside. However, strong headwinds from the current uncertainties and market volatility are likely to remain. These include geopolitical strains, macroeconomic factors, weak capital market performance and the impact from the lingering pandemic on global travel and related sectors.

The technology sector is likely to continue as the leading sector in terms of the number of deals coming to the market. However, with greater focus on renewable sources of energy in the face of increasing oil prices, the energy sector is expected to continue to lead by proceeds from bigger deals.

ESG will continue to be a sector-agnostic key theme for investors and IPO candidates. As global climate change and energy supply constraints intensify, companies that have embedded ESG into their core business values and operations should attract more investors and higher valuation.

Notes to editors

About EY

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Working across assurance, consulting, law, strategy, tax and transactions, EY teams ask better questions to find new answers for the complex issues facing our world today. 

EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals have under data protection legislation are available via ey.com/privacy. EY member firms do not practice law where prohibited by local laws. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. 

This news release has been issued by EYGM Limited, a member of the global EY organization that also does not provide any services to clients. 

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About EY Initial Public Offering Services

Going public is a transformative milestone in an organization's journey. As the industry-leading advisor in initial public offering (IPO) services, EY teams advise ambitious organizations around the world and helps equip them for IPO success. EY teams serve as trusted business advisors guiding companies from start to completion, strategically positioning businesses to achieve their goals over short windows of opportunity and preparing companies for their next chapter in the public eye. ey.com/ipo

About the data

The data presented here is available on ey.com/ipo/trends. Q2 2022 (i.e., January-June) is based on completed IPOs from 1 January 2022 to 21 June and expected IPOs by the end of June 2022. Data as of close of business 21 June UK time. All data contained in this document is sourced from Dealogic, CB Insights, Crunchbase, SPAC Insider and EY analysis unless otherwise noted. SPAC IPOs are excluded in all data included in this report, except where indicated. 

Second quarter IPO activity

Month/Quarter

Number of IPOs

Proceeds (US$b)

April 2020

54

$4.8

May 2020

44

$8.5

June 2020

101

$28.7

Q2 2020

199

$42.0

April 2021

204

$34.1

May 2021

175

$31.2

June 2021

280

$50.4

Q2 2021

659

$115.7

April 2022

109

$21.6

May 2022

83

$8.1

June 2022

113

$10.9

Q2 2022

305

$40.6

Source: EY, Dealogic

Appendix: Global IPOs by sector – 2022 YTD refers to priced IPOs from 1 January to 21 June 2022 and expected IPOs by the end of June.

Sectors - YTD

Number of
IPOs

Percentage of
global IPOs

Proceeds
(US$b)

Percentage of global
capital raised

Consumer products

37

5.9 %

$         1,221

1.3 %

Consumer staples

36

5.7 %

$         2,925

3.1 %

Energy

41

6.5 %

$       27,876

29.2 %

Financials

20

3.2 %

$         4,766

5.0 %

Health and life sciences

80

12.7 %

$         7,949

8.3 %

Industrials

109

17.3 %

$       12,051

12.6 %

Materials

116

18.4 %

$         8,487

8.9 %

Media and entertainment

12

1.9 %

$            444

0.5 %

Real estate

29

4.6 %

$         1,649

1.7 %

Retail

19

3.0 %

$         2,670

2.8 %

Technology

120

19.0 %

$       16,387

17.2 %

Telecommunications

11

1.8 %

$         8,975

9.4 %

Global total

630

100 %

$       95,400

100 %

Source: EY, Dealogic 

Figures may not total 100% due to rounding.

Lauren Mosery
EY Global Media Relations
+1 732 977 2063
lauren.mosery@ey.com

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ytd-2022-saw-dramatic-slowdown-in-global-ipo-activity-from-a-record-year-in-2021-301578376.html

SOURCE EY

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Economics

What Is the Great Resignation? Definition, Causes & Impact

What Is the Great Resignation (AKA the Big Quit)? The Great Resignation—also commonly called the Big Quit or the Great Reshuffle—is an ongoing phenomenon…

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Employees have been leaving their jobs in search of better prospects at a higher rate than usual since the drop in the quit rate during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

chayanuphol via Shutterstock; Canva

What Is the Great Resignation (AKA the Big Quit)?

The Great Resignation—also commonly called the Big Quit or the Great Reshuffle—is an ongoing phenomenon involving employees voluntarily leaving their jobs in unprecedented numbers. According to most, this phenomenon officially began around late 2020 or early 2021, after the quit rate (the number of monthly resignations divided by total employment) dropped sharply during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic due to a shortage of work as a result of large-scale shutdowns.

Once vaccines were rolled out and restrictions were loosened, many companies resumed business, and the number of job openings increased. At the same time, the quit rate nearly doubled from around 1.6% in early 2020 to about 3% by late 2021.

According to most pundits, this uptrend marked the start of the Big Quit, but the quit rate, which started being measured in 2000, tells a different story. A graph of the data shows a slow but steady uptrend since 2009 that is only interrupted by the work shortage caused by 2020’s shutdowns and resulting layoffs. When looked at from this perspective, the great resignation is a 10+ year-old phenomenon that has been gaining momentum for years.

Had it not been for the job shortage during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, the quit rate may have simply continued to rise at a steady pace. 

Bureau of Labor and Statistics via St. Louis FRED

What Conditions Led to 2021’s Great Resignation?

During the COVID-19 pandemic, so-called “essential workers” (e.g., those who worked at grocery and retail stores, hospitals, and restaurants) found themselves under-compensated and overworked by their employers, many of whom didn’t seem eager to reward the significant risks they were taking with anything more than shallow praise for keeping essential services available to the public.

Essential workers were commonly lauded as heroes, but few received the hazard pay one would expect to accompany such work. Because of this, many frontline workers felt like expendable cogs in an uncaring machine, and as more jobs became available in late 2020 and early 2021, workers left the retail, restaurant, grocery, and hospitality industries in record numbers.

During the COVID-19 shutdowns, many companies whose businesses weren’t based around manufacturing or customer service shifted toward remote work for office-type employees, and the office-based workforce realized that this could become the norm. Why spend money and time commuting to an office when the same work could be done at home? In many cases, remote work also meant that money could be saved on child and pet care.

As vaccines became widely available and shutdowns subsided in late 2020 and early 2021, an abundance of job openings meant workers had more options, and due to the high cost of living and the lifestyle changes brought about by the pandemic, many weren’t satisfied with jobs that didn’t offer living wages or flexible work environments.

Money from unemployment and federal stimulus payments also meant that some workers had enough cash on hand to search more thoroughly for positions that met their requirements rather than accepting less-than-ideal work in order to survive after quitting.

These and other factors contributed to low unemployment and high labor demand, which made for an environment that favors workers’ ability to resign and seek new prospects.

What Reasons Did Workers Give for Quitting Their Jobs?

According to surveys created by the Pew Research Center, “low pay (63%), no opportunities for advancement (63%), and feeling disrespected at work (57%)” were the top three reasons respondents cited for leaving their jobs during this particular wave of resignations. The study also showed that younger adults and those with lower incomes quit at higher rates than older adults and those with higher incomes.

What Did People Do After Resigning?

So, where did all these people go after resigning from their jobs? The answer is unsurprising—they got other jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, the quit rate and swap rate had a correlation of close to 100 percent. Workers weren’t resigning just to resign; they were resigning in order to leverage their labor and land themselves jobs with better pay, better benefits, and more flexibility.

With unemployment low and labor demand high, companies had to compete with one another for job seekers by providing incentives. According to the New York Times, “When workers switched jobs, they often increased their pay. Wages grew nearly 10 percent in leisure and hospitality [from May 2021 to May 2022] and more than 7 percent in retail,” two of the industries most heavily hit by the Big Quit.

In some cases, non-resigning workers were also able to leverage this shift in the labor market by demanding better pay and more flexible conditions. For many office workers, this often meant the ability to start (or keep) working remotely.

Do Workers Have More Bargaining Power Than They Did Before 2020?

In general, the conditions that existed during the Great Reshuffle shifted a degree of bargaining power from employers to workers. But will it stay that way? In general, the more demand there is for labor, and the lower the unemployment rate, the more bargaining power workers (and job seekers) have.

Interestingly, this shifting power dynamic seemed to bring about a resurgence in the labor movement, as a wave of unionization efforts followed the Great Resignation. These efforts were not, in most cases, welcomed by large employers, many of whom—such as Amazon and Starbucks—invested considerable capital into union-busting efforts and other (sometimes illegal) forms of retaliation. Nevertheless, unionization efforts continued. By May of 2022, 100 Starbucks stores had voted in favor of unionization.

Concurrently, many workers expressed their mutual solidarity in online communities. A subreddit called r/antiwork grew by over 900,000 members in 2021 and drew the ire of Fox News, a network that tends to be associated with right-wing, anti-labor-movement politics. Within the r/antiwork community, workers not only shared stories about low pay, horrible working conditions, and villainous bosses—they also shared legal information about workers’ rights and the unionization process.

Members encouraged each other to be transparent with their coworkers about pay and reminded one another that the prohibition of discussions of pay in the workplace by bosses and managers is against the law. The community continues to grow, and as of mid-2022, it had over 2 million members.

Is the Great Resignation Still Occurring?

The quit rate has fallen somewhat from its November 2021 peak, but as of late June 2022, it remains relatively high at about 2.9%. Unionization efforts are still on the rise, and workers are learning about their rights and collective power.

Given the Great Resignation’s generally upward trajectory since 2009, and the resurgence of the labor movement, it doesn’t appear as if the Big Quit is going anywhere anytime soon. According to Katherine Ross’ interview with ZipRecruiter CEO Ian Siegl, the “post-pandemic job-seeker” is here to stay. 

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Economics

Will Disney World Ever Sell Annual Passes Again?

The theme park has not sold annual passes for months, but that (briefly) changed this week.

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The theme park has not sold annual passes for months, but that (briefly) changed this week.

Annual passes have suffered during the pandemic at both Disneyland and Disney World. Walt Disney's  (DIS) - Get The Walt Disney Company Report California theme park actually cancelled its annual passholder plan early in the pandemic and replaced it with a new system, the Magic Key, many months later. Disney World suspended annual pass sales during the pandemic as well and made changes to its program (albeit less drastic ones).

This happened because covid-related rules and protocols forced the company to manage its crowds more than it ever has. Disney imposed a reservation system and capacity limits at all of its parks. A certain percentage of those reservations were set aside for passholders, but there were still days when demand exceeded supply.

That created a bad experience for passholders because what's the point of paying for unlimited access to the parks then being told you can't actually access the parks on the day you wanted to go?

This forced Disney to cut off sales of most annual passes at its Florida theme parks and all annual passes at Disneyland in California. Basically, the company still has to manage demand and that meant not allowing more people to buy annual passes than than the new capacity rules allowed.

That, as you might imagine, disappointed many fans who wanted to take part in the unlimited magic that comes with being an annual passholder. Disney has been very conscious of that and has put select passes on sale when capacities have allowed it.

The company appeared to do that for Disney World on June 28, but it turned out to be a giant mistake.

David McNew/Getty Images)

Disney World Puts Annual Passes on Sale (Whoops)

While Disneyland cancelled its annual pass program and then replaced it with something new, Disney World never did that. Instead, the Florida parks changed the names of its passes, making them more expensive, while also removing some benefits, but mostly keeping the program intact.

When Disney World resumed selling annual passes after reopening from its pandemic closure, they sold out quickly and the company stopped selling most of them. Currently, the company has suspended sales of the top-tier Incredi Pass, as well as the Sorcerer Pass, which is only offered to Disney Vacation Club members and Florida residents. It has also halted sales of the Pirate Pass, which only Florida residents can buy.

People who want these passes periodically check the Disney website because the company could bring them back without notice. That appeared to be what happened with the Sorcerer and Pirate Pass on June 28.

The passes were put on sale, but they were not actually available and Disney said that listing them being available was a mistake, WDWInfo.com reported. 

Disney is still selling its lowest-tier most-limited Pixie passes (no weekend access and many weekday blackouts) for Florida residents only. In addition, existing passholders can renew their annual passes.

Why Do Annual Passes Matter?

Before the pandemic, locals holding annual passes were an important revenue driver for Disneyland and Disney World. Back when the parks had higher capacity limits and no reservation system, locals popping in for a few hours produced incremental revenue that helped the theme parks.

Once capacity limits were put in place at the parks, Disney found that it did not have enough capacity to keep an unlimited amount of passholders happy. That forced the company to make drastic changes at Disneyland while cutting off sales at Disney World.

The reality is that the pandemic has taught Disney that it makes sense to cap crowds and essentially raise prices (although ticket prices have not increased) in order to deliver a better experience for guests. That's something the company will almost certainly continue in the post-pandemic world which makes passholders less important.

Disney will still sell passes to drive traffic to its less-visited parks in Florida on its slower days. Its likely, however, that opportunities to buy its top-tier passes will be very limited as the company continues to try to balance capacity and revenue. 

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