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“To The Moon”: Rise In Trans-Pacific Spot Rates Is Relentless – And Accelerating

"To The Moon": Rise In Trans-Pacific Spot Rates Is Relentless – And Accelerating

By Greg Miller, of FreightWaves,

The trajectory of trans-Pacific spot rates brings to mind the catchphrase "to the moon.|

Carriers implemented general rate.

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"To The Moon": Rise In Trans-Pacific Spot Rates Is Relentless - And Accelerating

By Greg Miller, of FreightWaves,

The trajectory of trans-Pacific spot rates brings to mind the catchphrase "to the moon.|

Carriers implemented general rate increases (GRIs) on June 1. Spot rates rose. They enacted more GRIs on Tuesday. Rates jumped again. Another wave of GRIs is set for July 1. Add fallout from China port congestion to the mix, and it’s a recipe for rates to keep climbing.

“Despite record highs, rate levels continue to sharply increase,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of consultancy Vespucci Maritime. Past predictions on spot rates have been repeatedly proved wrong — and far too conservative.

Last September, carriers met with Chinese regulators, who reportedly told them: You’re making a lot of money on the trans-Pacific, so don’t push it too high. For the following three months, rates did seem to plateau at around $3,800 per FEU on the Asia-West Coast route and around $4,700 per FEU on Asia-East Coast.

Current rates to the West and East coasts are 75% and 110% above those levels, respectively. If Chinese regulators did apply pressure to temper rate growth in Q4 2020, they definitely took their foot off the brake in 2021.

Then came the full-year guidance from ocean carriers, released in early 2021. Analysts noted that carriers’ initial guidance implied that H2 2021 spot rates would fall materially versus rates in H2 2020.

The beginning of the second half is now less than two weeks away. Given current rate trends and the imminent onset of peak-season demand, those earlier carrier spot-rate assumptions look increasingly implausible, barring an unforeseen event that causes a precipitous drop in U.S. demand.

New high for Asia-East Coast

On Tuesday, the day carrier GRIs were implemented, the Freightos Baltic Index daily assessment for Asia-East Coast rose 7% compared to Monday, to $9,889 per FEU, a fresh all-time high. Its Wednesday assessment was unchanged and was up 224% year on year (y/y).

S&P Global Platts provides daily assessments of Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates. Its North Asia-East Coast FAK assessment was $7,100 per FEU on Wednesday. Drewry released its weekly rate assessment for the Shanghai-New York route on Thursday: $8,017 per FEU, up 195% y/y.

Index moves offer guidance on the trend in the supply-demand balance, but amid current market conditions, they’re much less reflective of actual costs. Not only are different indexes reporting widely varying numbers, but these assessments do not include premium charges that are often required to get cargo loaded. Those charges can reportedly reach as high as 10,000 per FEU.

American Shipper was told that a carrier just quoted an all-in Asia-East Coast rate of $19,990 per FEU (which seems to include a $10 “discount” to avert the $20,000 threshold).

New high for Asia-West Coast

The Freightos Baltic Index daily assessment for Asia-West Coast jumped 9% on Tuesday compared to Monday, to $6,829 per FEU, another record high. On Wednesday, Freightos’ rate estimate pulled back slightly, to $6,614 per FEU, up 175% y/y.

Drewry’s weekly rate for Shanghai-Los Angeles was $6,358 per FEU, up 197% y/y. S&P Global Platts’ daily North Asia-West Coast FAK assessment for Wednesday was $5,800 per FEU.

Escalating Yantian fallout

It’s not just GRIs and U.S. import demand driving rates higher, it’s COVID-induced logjams in the Chinese ports of Yantian, Shekou and Nansha. While productivity in Yantian began gradually recovering this week, knock-on effects will continue. Cargo delayed by the outbreak should start arriving at U.S. ports en masse in July.

According to Marine Strategies International, “Yantian handles a quarter of China’s shipments to the U.S. The impact of the congestion is clearly reflected in the freight markets and is expected to be worse than what was seen post-Suez accident.”

S&P Global Platts provides daily assessments of Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates. Its North Asia-East Coast FAK assessment was $7,100 per FEU on Wednesday.

Jensen commented, “Yantian is on a slow path towards a beginning recovery. But that does not mean normal shipping service levels are resuming anytime soon. Both HMM and Maersk show extensive vessel omissions for the rest of June on their mainline services.”

Project44 released data on Thursday showing the extent of the disruption. In the first half of June, 298 container vessels with a total capacity of over 3 million twenty-foot equivalent units skipped calls in Yantian, according to project44. Even in a best-case scenario, “it could take weeks to process backlogged containers and shippers should expect serious delays,” it said.

“Dwell times at YICT [Yantian International Container Terminals] also paint a grim picture,” added project44. Over the past two weeks, the seven-day average of median dwell times for export containers doubled, to 23.06 days as of Tuesday.

Retail sales still exceptionally strong

Ultimately, spot rates won’t fall until demand pulls back. It has been widely hypothesized that Americans will spend less on goods as more are vaccinated and they spend more money on services (restaurants, travel, etc.).

Both The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal partly attributed May’s seasonally adjusted 1.3% drop in retail sales versus April to a shift in consumer spending to services from goods.

However, a far better gauge for container shipping is non-seasonally adjusted retail sales excluding vehicles and parts, given that vehicles are not shipped in boxes and that the automotive industry is being impacted by a chip shortage.

According to this dataset — provided to American Shipper by Jason Miller, associate professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business — May spending related to containerized imports increased. 

May’s number, $429.1 billion, was up 3.6% from April’s and up 17.5% from May 2019, prior to COVID. It was the highest monthly total of 2021 and second only to December 2020 overall.

Autumn import decline?

The National Retail Federation (NRF) foresees a moderation of containerized imports during the fall season. Consultancy Hackett Associates and the NRF produce the monthly Global Port Tracker report. The latest edition forecasts that U.S. containerized imports in October will fall 10% versus a peak hit in May.

An import decline caused by congestion would not decrease spot rates. But rates would theoretically decline if there were a decrease in demand caused by a shift in consumer spending away from goods toward services, and/or if future demand fell because it had been pulled forward.

Asked by American Shipper for the rationale behind the lower October forecast compared to the May estimate, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold replied, “The numbers we’re seeing now are high because there has been so much pent-up demand and more vaccines mean people are finally getting out of the house to shop again. Retailers have had to import record amounts of merchandise to keep up.

“We expect consumer demand to remain strong, but with the ongoing supply chain disruptions and port congestion we’ve seen for months now, many retailers are moving up their holiday imports to be sure that holiday merchandise arrives in time,” said Gold. “That means the peak season that would traditionally come in October will likely come sooner this year, and much of the holiday merchandise will already be here by October.”

But in general, forecasting future import flows has proved extremely challenging in the pandemic era, given the lack of precedent. Case in point: At this time last year, Global Port Tracker forecast total volume for the five months from June-October 2020 of 8.28 million TEUs. The final number for those months came in at 9.95 million TEUs — 20% higher.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/19/2021 - 18:30

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United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

Shutterstock

United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

More Travel:

"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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Walmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program

The retail superstore is adding a new feature to its Walmart+ plan — and customers will be happy.

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It's just been a few days since Target  (TGT)  launched its new Target Circle 360 paid membership plan. 

The plan offers free and fast shipping on many products to customers, initially for $49 a year and then $99 after the initial promotional signup period. It promises to be a success, since many Target customers are loyal to the brand and will go out of their way to shop at one instead of at its two larger peers, Walmart and Amazon.

Related: Walmart makes a major price cut that will delight customers

And stop us if this sounds familiar: Target will rely on its more than 2,000 stores to act as fulfillment hubs. 

This model is a proven winner; Walmart also uses its more than 4,600 stores as fulfillment and shipping locations to get orders to customers as soon as possible.

Sometimes, this means shipping goods from the nearest warehouse. But if a desired product is in-store and closer to a customer, it reduces miles on the road and delivery time. It's a kind of logistical magic that makes any efficiency lover's (or retail nerd's) heart go pitter patter. 

Walmart rolls out answer to Target's new membership tier

Walmart has certainly had more time than Target to develop and work out the kinks in Walmart+. It first launched the paid membership in 2020 during the height of the pandemic, when many shoppers sheltered at home but still required many staples they might ordinarily pick up at a Walmart, like cleaning supplies, personal-care products, pantry goods and, of course, toilet paper. 

It also undercut Amazon  (AMZN)  Prime, which costs customers $139 a year for free and fast shipping (plus several other benefits including access to its streaming service, Amazon Prime Video). 

Walmart+ costs $98 a year, which also gets you free and speedy delivery, plus access to a Paramount+ streaming subscription, fuel savings, and more. 

An employee at a Merida, Mexico, Walmart. (Photo by Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Jeff Greenberg/Getty Images

If that's not enough to tempt you, however, Walmart+ just added a new benefit to its membership program, ostensibly to compete directly with something Target now has: ultrafast delivery. 

Target Circle 360 particularly attracts customers with free same-day delivery for select orders over $35 and as little as one-hour delivery on select items. Target executes this through its Shipt subsidiary.

We've seen this lightning-fast delivery speed only in snippets from Amazon, the king of delivery efficiency. Who better to take on Target, though, than Walmart, which is using a similar store-as-fulfillment-center model? 

"Walmart is stepping up to save our customers even more time with our latest delivery offering: Express On-Demand Early Morning Delivery," Walmart said in a statement, just a day after Target Circle 360 launched. "Starting at 6 a.m., earlier than ever before, customers can enjoy the convenience of On-Demand delivery."

Walmart  (WMT)  clearly sees consumers' desire for near-instant delivery, which obviously saves time and trips to the store. Rather than waiting a day for your order to show up, it might be on your doorstep when you wake up. 

Consumers also tend to spend more money when they shop online, and they remain stickier as paying annual members. So, to a growing number of retail giants, almost instant gratification like this seems like something worth striving for.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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President Biden Delivers The “Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President”

President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through…

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President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through the State of The Union, President Biden can go back to his crypt now.

Whatever 'they' gave Biden, every American man, woman, and the other should be allowed to take it - though it seems the cocktail brings out 'dark Brandon'?

Tl;dw: Biden's Speech tonight ...

  • Fund Ukraine.

  • Trump is threat to democracy and America itself.

  • Abortion is good.

  • American Economy is stronger than ever.

  • Inflation wasn't Biden's fault.

  • Illegals are Americans too.

  • Republicans are responsible for the border crisis.

  • Trump is bad.

  • Biden stands with trans-children.

  • J6 was the worst insurrection since the Civil War.

(h/t @TCDMS99)

Tucker Carlson's response sums it all up perfectly:

"that was possibly the darkest, most un-American speech given by an American president. It wasn't a speech, it was a rant..."

Carlson continued: "The true measure of a nation's greatness lies within its capacity to control borders, yet Bid refuses to do it."

"In a fair election, Joe Biden cannot win"

And concluded:

“There was not a meaningful word for the entire duration about the things that actually matter to people who live here.”

Victor Davis Hanson added some excellent color, but this was probably the best line on Biden:

"he doesn't care... he lives in an alternative reality."

*  *  *

Watch SOTU Live here...

*   *   *

Mises' Connor O'Keeffe, warns: "Be on the Lookout for These Lies in Biden's State of the Union Address." 

On Thursday evening, President Joe Biden is set to give his third State of the Union address. The political press has been buzzing with speculation over what the president will say. That speculation, however, is focused more on how Biden will perform, and which issues he will prioritize. Much of the speech is expected to be familiar.

The story Biden will tell about what he has done as president and where the country finds itself as a result will be the same dishonest story he's been telling since at least the summer.

He'll cite government statistics to say the economy is growing, unemployment is low, and inflation is down.

Something that has been frustrating Biden, his team, and his allies in the media is that the American people do not feel as economically well off as the official data says they are. Despite what the White House and establishment-friendly journalists say, the problem lies with the data, not the American people's ability to perceive their own well-being.

As I wrote back in January, the reason for the discrepancy is the lack of distinction made between private economic activity and government spending in the most frequently cited economic indicators. There is an important difference between the two:

  • Government, unlike any other entity in the economy, can simply take money and resources from others to spend on things and hire people. Whether or not the spending brings people value is irrelevant

  • It's the private sector that's responsible for producing goods and services that actually meet people's needs and wants. So, the private components of the economy have the most significant effect on people's economic well-being.

Recently, government spending and hiring has accounted for a larger than normal share of both economic activity and employment. This means the government is propping up these traditional measures, making the economy appear better than it actually is. Also, many of the jobs Biden and his allies take credit for creating will quickly go away once it becomes clear that consumers don't actually want whatever the government encouraged these companies to produce.

On top of all that, the administration is dealing with the consequences of their chosen inflation rhetoric.

Since its peak in the summer of 2022, the president's team has talked about inflation "coming back down," which can easily give the impression that it's prices that will eventually come back down.

But that's not what that phrase means. It would be more honest to say that price increases are slowing down.

Americans are finally waking up to the fact that the cost of living will not return to prepandemic levels, and they're not happy about it.

The president has made some clumsy attempts at damage control, such as a Super Bowl Sunday video attacking food companies for "shrinkflation"—selling smaller portions at the same price instead of simply raising prices.

In his speech Thursday, Biden is expected to play up his desire to crack down on the "corporate greed" he's blaming for high prices.

In the name of "bringing down costs for Americans," the administration wants to implement targeted price ceilings - something anyone who has taken even a single economics class could tell you does more harm than good. Biden would never place the blame for the dramatic price increases we've experienced during his term where it actually belongs—on all the government spending that he and President Donald Trump oversaw during the pandemic, funded by the creation of $6 trillion out of thin air - because that kind of spending is precisely what he hopes to kick back up in a second term.

If reelected, the president wants to "revive" parts of his so-called Build Back Better agenda, which he tried and failed to pass in his first year. That would bring a significant expansion of domestic spending. And Biden remains committed to the idea that Americans must be forced to continue funding the war in Ukraine. That's another topic Biden is expected to highlight in the State of the Union, likely accompanied by the lie that Ukraine spending is good for the American economy. It isn't.

It's not possible to predict all the ways President Biden will exaggerate, mislead, and outright lie in his speech on Thursday. But we can be sure of two things. The "state of the Union" is not as strong as Biden will say it is. And his policy ambitions risk making it much worse.

*  *  *

The American people will be tuning in on their smartphones, laptops, and televisions on Thursday evening to see if 'sloppy joe' 81-year-old President Joe Biden can coherently put together more than two sentences (even with a teleprompter) as he gives his third State of the Union in front of a divided Congress. 

President Biden will speak on various topics to convince voters why he shouldn't be sent to a retirement home.

According to CNN sources, here are some of the topics Biden will discuss tonight:

  • Economic issues: Biden and his team have been drafting a speech heavy on economic populism, aides said, with calls for higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy – an attempt to draw a sharp contrast with Republicans and their likely presidential nominee, Donald Trump.

  • Health care expenses: Biden will also push for lowering health care costs and discuss his efforts to go after drug manufacturers to lower the cost of prescription medications — all issues his advisers believe can help buoy what have been sagging economic approval ratings.

  • Israel's war with Hamas: Also looming large over Biden's primetime address is the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has consumed much of the president's time and attention over the past few months. The president's top national security advisers have been working around the clock to try to finalize a ceasefire-hostages release deal by Ramadan, the Muslim holy month that begins next week.

  • An argument for reelection: Aides view Thursday's speech as a critical opportunity for the president to tout his accomplishments in office and lay out his plans for another four years in the nation's top job. Even though viewership has declined over the years, the yearly speech reliably draws tens of millions of households.

Sources provided more color on Biden's SOTU address: 

The speech is expected to be heavy on economic populism. The president will talk about raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. He'll highlight efforts to cut costs for the American people, including pushing Congress to help make prescription drugs more affordable.

Biden will talk about the need to preserve democracy and freedom, a cornerstone of his re-election bid. That includes protecting and bolstering reproductive rights, an issue Democrats believe will energize voters in November. Biden is also expected to promote his unity agenda, a key feature of each of his addresses to Congress while in office.

Biden is also expected to give remarks on border security while the invasion of illegals has become one of the most heated topics among American voters. A majority of voters are frustrated with radical progressives in the White House facilitating the illegal migrant invasion. 

It is probable that the president will attribute the failure of the Senate border bill to the Republicans, a claim many voters view as unfounded. This is because the White House has the option to issue an executive order to restore border security, yet opts not to do so

Maybe this is why? 

While Biden addresses the nation, the Biden administration will be armed with a social media team to pump propaganda to at least 100 million Americans. 

"The White House hosted about 70 creators, digital publishers, and influencers across three separate events" on Wednesday and Thursday, a White House official told CNN. 

Not a very capable social media team... 

The administration's move to ramp up social media operations comes as users on X are mostly free from government censorship with Elon Musk at the helm. This infuriates Democrats, who can no longer censor their political enemies on X. 

Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers tell Axios that the president's SOTU performance will be critical as he tries to dispel voter concerns about his elderly age. The address reached as many as 27 million people in 2023. 

"We are all nervous," said one House Democrat, citing concerns about the president's "ability to speak without blowing things."

The SOTU address comes as Biden's polling data is in the dumps

BetOnline has created several money-making opportunities for gamblers tonight, such as betting on what word Biden mentions the most. 

As well as...

We will update you when Tucker Carlson's live feed of SOTU is published. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 07:44

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