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There is Only ONE Guaranteed Way to Financial Success

“Any earner who earns more than he can spend is automatically an investor.” — Gerald Loeb (“Maxims of Wall Street” p. 21) Last week, I gave…

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“Any earner who earns more than he can spend is automatically an investor.” — Gerald Loeb (“Maxims of Wall Street” p. 21)

Last week, I gave a series of lectures at Wabash College, the all-male school in Indiana, and The Citadel, the mostly male military academy in South Carolina.

   
Prof. Richard Ebeling and Mark Skousen at The Citadel.

My topic was “What Drives the Economy: Consumer Spending, Business Investment or Government Stimulus?”

What really caught the attention of the students was when I talked about the theme, “What is the key to your personal financial success?” Nothing gets the attention of students more than their own prosperity after they graduate.

Does Consumer Spending Drive Economic Growth?

I gave them three choices.

  1. “Spend all you can.” Is the key to financial success a big mortgage, a car payment and an outstanding credit card bill?

Most rejected the “big spending” philosophy of life, and rightly so. Yet, isn’t this exactly what the government does — overspend and run up huge debts?

Earlier, I debunked the idea that “consumer spending drives the economy.” High levels of consumption are actually the consequence of profitable businesses. It is known as “Say’s Law”: consumer spending is the effect, not the cause of prosperity.

And yet, there are businesspeople out there who are enamored with the Keynesian mindset that “what goes around comes around.” If you spend enough money, somehow it will come back to you. But it seldom happens. Don’t think you can spend your way to prosperity, either as an individual or as a nation. I’ve met a few businessmen who are big spenders — they usually end up bankrupt.

Will a Big Salary or High Profits Guarantee You Success?

  1. “Earn all you can.” When I suggested this second choice, many students raised their hands and supported the thesis that earning more money was the key to success. Having a hard time making ends meet? The solution? Earn more money! A raise or a salary bonus gives you the chance to buy a new car, a new home, a family vacation or put your kids through college.

But I shook my head. Earning more money does not guarantee you success. There are plenty of stories about millionaires who went bankrupt because they spent all their gains and went into debt to the point of no return. Sports figures and entertainers, in particular, are famous for going bankrupt. People such as Mike TysonWayne Newton, Michael JacksonLarry King and Cyndi Lauper.

If you don’t live within your means, you can run into trouble.

The Real Key: Productive Saving!

  1. “Save all you can and invest it productively.” The only real way to get ahead and stay ahead is to live within your means, save regularly and invest those savings productively — either in a successful business, the stock market or other investment programs.


Mark Skousen, Kevin O’Leary and Alex Green at FreedomFest.

Kevin O’Leary of Shark Tank fame said it best: “Getting rich is easy if you follow three rules: spend less, save more and invest the rest” (“Maxims of Wall Street” p. 26).

The students all took notes. Their question was, “Where to invest one’s savings?”

You have several choices. You can invest your savings in a bank account, but that’s not going to earn you much.

You can invest in a new business venture — many members of the 400 richest people in America got started that way. But it’s high risk. Over 90% of all small businesses fail within five years.

You can invest in specialty areas such as rental properties, collectibles or penny stocks with various levels of risk.

Or you can invest regularly in the stock market, buying individual stocks or a stock index fund, depending on your level of risk taking.

I’ve tried all these formulas for financial success, and each one may appeal to you. But for the majority of savers/investors, perhaps investing your 401k or IRA in a stock index fund may be the safest way to earn a fortune.

Start by Becoming Educated

I recommend you invest some time in educating yourself in the business of investing. A good starting point is to read “The Richest Man in Babylon,” by George Clason. 

I quote it on p. 24 of “Maxims.”

“In old Babylon there once lived a certain very rich man named Arkad. Far and wide he was famed for his great wealth. Also, was he famed for his liberality. He was generous with his charities. He was generous with his family. He was liberal in his own expenses. But nevertheless, each year his wealth increased more rapidly than he spent it.”

Why? Because, Arkad said, ‘A part of all you earn is yours to keep.’”

Then start investing — you’ll learn fast what to do and what not to do.

Second Book to Read: The Maxims of Wall Street

The second book to read is “The Maxims of Wall Street”, my collection of all the great sayings, adages and worldly wisdom by the financial gurus.

Every subscriber should have a copy. The price is only $20, a bargain (the retail price is $24.95). And I make it easy to buy additional copies for your friends and family members. Only $10 to buy another copy or two. Some even buy an entire box of 32 copies — the price is only $300. I pay postage if mailed in the United States.

By the way, I’m being forced to raise the price of the next edition due to increased costs of printing and postage. So, if you want a copy of the 10th anniversary edition, now is the time to buy it. Go to www.skousenbooks.com.

Good investing, AEIOU,

Mark Skousen

Upcoming Conferences

Orlando MoneyShow, Oct. 29-31, Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate, Florida: On Sunday, Oct. 29, I’ll be the keynote speaker at the Orlando MoneyShow. My topic is “Adam Smith Makes Two Prophecies about America: One Bullish and One Bearish,” followed by a breakout session, “The Fed Disaster Plan: Beating Tight Money in 2023 with My Five Favorite Growth and Income Investments.” Other speakers include Charles Payne (Fox Business), Jon and Pete Najarian (CNBC), Steve Moore, George Gilder, Bryan Perry, and Dave Phillips. My subscribers can get 20% off the registration at www.moneyshow.com or by calling 1-800-970-4355. Be sure to reference my discount code, SPKR20.

You Nailed it!

‘The Funding Founder’ Richard Viguerie Turns 90!

“It is incredible the quantity of good that may be done in a country by a single man who will make a business of it.” — Benjamin Franklin

Last week, I attended a gala celebration of an old friend, Richard Viguerie, the founder and chairman of the American Targeting Association, who turned 90 years old on Saturday, Sept. 23.

He is best known as the premier promoter of direct-mail advertising for politically “conservative” causes.

We share common interests in politics, religion and direct-mail advertising, which has gradually shifted to online advertising.

In his remarks, Richard acknowledged his “co-producer” since the inception of his direct-mail operation: Benjamin Franklin, who was, of course, the first Postmaster General, and my direct descendant!

Several years ago, I sent Richard one of my favorites of Franklin’s quotes, “It is incredible the quantity of good that may be done in a country by a single man who will make a business of it.”

He is also a fan of Franklin’s motto, “Early to bed, early to rise, makes a man healthy, wealthy and wise.”

Richard has even written a book on healthy living, and he tries his best to stay active through exercise and diet.

His goal is to imitate the Old Testament prophet Moses: “And Moses was a hundred and twenty years old when he died: his eye was not dim, nor his natural force abated.” — Deuteronomy 34:7

If anyone can do it, Richard can. He wakes up every morning ready to go.

The post There is Only ONE Guaranteed Way to Financial Success appeared first on Stock Investor.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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