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The Lindy effect and how it presents itself in Web3

The corporate world is filled with the carcasses of companies (and cryptos) who found out too late that the Lindy effect could not save them.



The corporate world is filled with the carcasses of companies (and cryptos) who found out too late that the Lindy effect could not save them.

If you ask people if they think that companies that have been around for many decades (even more than a hundred years) versus a startup would have a better chance of making it through hard economic times like a recession, most people would say the older company has the edge.

Likewise in the crypto sphere, the longer that Bitcoin, Ethereum or other altcoins grow and persist, people say it’s been around a while, and so it begins to enter the mainstream and be thought of as something that will last a while.

The Lindy effect is a term used to denote the increased likelihood of survival of an older venture (or even in crypto) that has done much work over time versus a new untested one. It came from the Lindy delicatessen in New York City and was subsequently popularized by people like author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and a 1964 New Yorker article entitled Lindy’s Law. 

The Lindy effect argument is that a product, company, service, fashion, fad, technology and others build up their tradition and culture over time, which helps to convince their management, employees, fans and supporters to stick together and not quit in the face of adversity. It has also been used to justify the future success or failure of comedians, published books and even Bitcoin and crypto.

However, the Lindy effect is not an excuse to avoid adapting to changes in the business environment, technology and social norms. The world is littered with old companies like Sears, Firestone, Pan Am, McDonnell Douglas, Credit Suisse, Barclays Bank and others that had a long successful history, but did not make it to the present. Using the Lindy effect in a hubris manner with no realistic assessment of the threats only benefits the ego of the company.

Take for example Blockbuster, which ruled the Eighties with rented DVDs and videocassette movie rentals. A startup called Netflix wanted Blockbuster to acquire them, but Blockbuster executives were skeptical and did not consider the deal. Blockbuster has been replaced by Netflix, which is now a global streaming and moviemaking behemoth.

Another is Nokia, which ruled the analog cellphone world along with competitors like Motorola and Sony Ericsson. Although these companies still have current smartphones, they have been upstaged by new competitors like Apple, Samsung and Google (through Android). Again, it was a matter of failing to adapt to new global changes in tech, social and economic developments.

Sometimes the dynamics of the world change drastically, and decades of prior different conditions may have contributed to the success of a company. In the tech world, this happens often. For example, prior to the advent of high-speed microprocessors, the IBM mainframe ruled the business world. Now laptops, desktops and servers form the backbone of most corporate IT systems, and it may change in the future and bring new tech leaders to replace the old stalwarts. Cellphones replaced payphones and pagers, and laptops replaced many desktops. 

Bitcoin’s continued strength since 2008, and the way it keeps recovering from painful crashes, has been used as a Lindy effect example by many of its supporters and some pundits. Ethereum is starting to be a part of that camp as well. One can also argue that Solana has risen from an almost fatal experience after being associated with FTX and is now doing quite well.

But what about other altcoins and crypto-related projects? One can never tell but the high-flying tokens of a few years ago are now no longer with us — at least in the top 100. Only time will tell, but having strong community support is a big part of their success.

Some new tokens, on the other hand, are tempting fate with too much hubris. A common example of this is how some tokens allude to airdrops just so they can get the support of thousands of early adopters. Then, they suddenly rug-pull those supporters by announcing that there is no airdrop. Creating enemies and losing a large part of their early community when young through what turns out to be non-incentivized testnets (for example) is not a plan for success, but some projects seem to think so. 

When you see the word “scam” or similar words on crypto Twitter, you know these tokens have angered their early users who were hoping for a nice airdrop. The worst ones are the real scams, as these sell their tokens during their IDO, but then they rug on their community and disappear with the buyer’s money, only to reappear as something else again. Unfortunately, these scammers seem to also have the Lindy effect with them.

If the Lindy effect acts as the little white lie that helps a Web3 team or a company believe that it can make it, given that everyone does their job, then it is useful. It is like a pep talk to one’s self prior to a sporting event. Pride helps bring a company or community together through a sense of solidarity in accomplishing their corporate mission and vision. The hurdles that they went through over time also act as a binding force between them.

But if it is used as a source of false confidence and hubris that is not backed up by the work required to be up to date with current business needs, then it is a rule of thumb that shouldn’t be relied upon. 

The corporate world is filled with the carcasses of companies (and cryptos) who found out too late that the Lindy effect could not save them.

Zain Jaffer is the CEO of Zain Ventures focused on investments in Web3 and real estate.

This article was published through Cointelegraph Innovation Circle, a vetted organization of senior executives and experts in the blockchain technology industry who are building the future through the power of connections, collaboration and thought leadership. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Cointelegraph.

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US Dollar Index Higher on JOLTs Data

Hiring was unchanged at around 5.9m (3.7%); total separations, which, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), include quits, layoffs, discharges…



Hiring was unchanged at around 5.9m (3.7%); total separations, which, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), include quits, layoffs, discharges and other separations, was also little changed at 5.7m (3.6%). The quit rate came in at 3.6m and was almost the same as the previous month at 2.3%. The BLS noted that the number of quits increased in accommodation and food services, finance and insurance, as well as state and local government.


Markets were not totally reactive on the back of this release. However, it did initially guide major US equity indices lower and lift the US Dollar Index to fresh YTD pinnacles, pulling price action to within striking distance of resistance on the daily timeframe at 107.61. The release also sent the USD/JPY beyond the ¥150.00 handle for the first time since October 2022 and weighed on the EUR/USD further under monthly support at $1.0516.


As seen from the monthly and daily charts below, the US Dollar Index demonstrates room to continue exploring higher levels.














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The post US Dollar Index Higher on JOLTs Data appeared first on LeapRate.

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Crypto Ponzi scheme AirBit: All but one exec now sentenced

AirBit Club co-founder Dos Santos is now the last AirBit defendant not yet sentenced but is scheduled to learn his fate on Oct. 4, 2023.



AirBit Club co-founder Dos Santos is now the last AirBit defendant not yet sentenced but is scheduled to learn his fate on Oct. 4, 2023.

The United States District Court for the Southern District of New York is progressing with the sentencing procedure of key individuals behind the cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme AirBit Club.

The office of the U.S. attorney for New York on Oct. 3 announced the sentencing of three of the five surviving defendants in the AirBit case, including Scott Hughes, Cecilia Millan and Karina Chairez. The sentences came months after all three defendants pleaded guilty to money laundering and other charges in the AirBit case in early 2023.

Hughes, an attorney who allegedly laundered approximately $18 million in AirBit Club fraud proceeds, was sentenced to 18 months in prison. Millan, a senior-level promoter of AirBit Club, was sentenced to five years in prison. Chairez, another senior-level promoter of AirBit Club, was sentenced to one year and one day in prison.

Additionally, Hughes was sentenced to three years of supervised release. Millan and Chairez were also sentenced to three years and three months of supervised release, respectively.

The AirBit Club scheme was launched in late 2015 and was promoted as a “multi-level marketing club” in the cryptocurrency industry. The defendants provided promising presentations to trick investors into thinking that AirBit Club had guaranteed daily returns from crypto mining and trading. But instead of funding AirBit’s promoted crypto operations — which in fact had never been the case — $100 million of investors’ money went to the pockets of its founders and promoters.

Despite some users complaining about withdrawal delays and hidden fees in early 2016, the AirBit Club scheme managed to maintain its fraudulent activity until 2020.

AirBit Club presentation by Cecilia Millan from 2019. Source: YouTube

Announcing the sentences, U.S. attorney Damian Williams stressed that Hughes, Millan and Chairez each played a key role in perpetuating the AirBit Club pyramid scheme.

Related: 5 highlights of Sam Bankman-Fried’s first day of trial

“At the top-tier of promoters, Millan and Chairez for years aggressively solicited investments from and misled hardworking and unsophisticated investors to line their own pockets,” Williams said, adding:

“Today’s sentences send a message that anyone who facilitates cryptocurrency investment schemes — not only those at the very top of the pyramid — will face serious consequences for such crimes.

This comes after AirBit Club co-founder Pablo Rodriguez was sentenced to 12 years in prison in late September 2023. Dos Santos, another co-founder who has pleaded guilty to charges including wire fraud conspiracy, money laundering and bank fraud conspiracy, is scheduled to be sentenced on Oct. 4, 2023.

Santos will be the last defendant to be sentenced out of a total six defendants behind AirBit Club. Jackie Aguilar, who pled guilty in February 2023, reportedly passed away in May, a few weeks prior to sentencing.

Magazine: Blockchain detectives — Mt. Gox collapse saw birth of Chainalysis

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Here’s how Bitcoin investors can trade amid tension surrounding a US gov’t shutdown

Rumors of a U.S. government shutdown impact asset prices, including Bitcoin. Here’s how BTC options traders can capitalize on the 45 day funding deadline….



Rumors of a U.S. government shutdown impact asset prices, including Bitcoin. Here’s how BTC options traders can capitalize on the 45 day funding deadline.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price bullish action toward $28,000 on Oct. 1 was partially fueled by the uncertainty regarding the United States debt limit. However, United States President Joe Biden signed the spending bill just hours before the Sept. 30 deadline, avoiding a government shutdown.

Investors now question whether the momentum remains favorable for cryptocurrencies, given that the worst-case political-economic scenario is no longer on the table. However, it is worth noting that this bill merely provides extra funding for the next 45 days, giving more time for the House and Senate to work on their funding plans for 2024.

At first glance, it might be tempting for investors to use futures contracts to go long on Bitcoin. However, there’s a significant risk of getting liquidated if the price suddenly drops, and it’s impossible to predict whether a successful budget discussion down the road will benefit cryptocurrencies.

With the current extension in place, lawmakers now need to find a solution before Nov. 17. According to Margaret Spellings, president and CEO of the Bipartisan Policy Center:

“We can’t continue postponing our fiscal health and negotiating on the brink of government shutdowns and debt defaults.”

There’s no doubt that, despite narrowly avoiding a crisis, the overall risk of an economic recession remains. The U.S. Federal Reserve is grappling with persistent inflation and rising energy prices, factors that have driven the S&P 500 to its lowest point in 110 days and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to levels not seen since October 2007.

Additionally, oil prices have surged to $90, marking a 27.5% gain in just three months. This upward pressure on inflation is expected to further constrain economic activity.

On Sept. 27, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed uncertainty about whether interest rates have been raised sufficiently to combat this price growth.

Bitcoin’s initial reaction does not guarantee bullish momentum

Amid all this turmoil, Bitcoin has increased in value, breaking through the $28,000 resistance on Oct. 2. This performance prompted investors to anticipate heightened volatility for the cryptocurrency as the upcoming debt ceiling decision approaches.

Professional traders will avoid directional risk, given the uncertain outcome of the political debate, and opt for the reverse (short) iron butterfly, a limited-risk, limited-profit trading strategy.

Profit/loss estimate. Source: Deribit Position Builder

The prices mentioned were accurate as of Oct. 2, with Bitcoin trading at $28,326. All options listed expire on Oct. 27, but this strategy can also be adapted for different time frames. It’s essential to remember that options have a set expiry date, meaning that the price increase must occur during the defined period.

The recommended neutral-market strategy involves selling 5.4 contracts of $26,000 put options while simultaneously selling 5.4 call options with a $30,000 strike. To complete the trade, one should buy 5.8 contracts of $28,000 call options and an additional five contracts of $28,000 put options.

While a call option grants the buyer the right to acquire an asset, the contract seller assumes a potential negative exposure. To fully shield against market fluctuations, an investor must deposit 0.253 BTC (approximately $7,170), representing the maximum potential loss.

Conviction in volatility is essential, as the risk-reward is reversed

For this investor to profit, Bitcoin’s price must be below $26,630 on Oct. 27 (a decrease of 6%) or above $29,280 (an increase of 3.4%). In essence, the trade offers a potentially substantial profit zone, but losses are 90% higher than potential gains if Bitcoin remains stagnant.

The maximum payout is 0.133 BTC (roughly $3,770). However, if a trader believes that volatility is imminent, a 6% movement within 24 days appears achievable.

It’s important to note that investors have the option to reverse the operation before the options expire, preferably after a substantial Bitcoin price movement. To do this, they should repurchase the two options they had initially sold and sell the two options they had originally bought.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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