Connect with us

Government

The Fallacy That Rules The World

The Fallacy That Rules The World

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Smart people know to avoid fallacies.

One of them is known…

Published

on

The Fallacy That Rules The World

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Smart people know to avoid fallacies.

One of them is known as the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc.

It’s Latin for “after this, therefore because of this.”

The classic example concerns the rooster and the sunrise.

Every morning before the sun comes up, the rooster does his crazy crowing routine, waking up everyone around. Shortly after, the light begins to appear on the horizon.

If you knew nothing else, and you watched this happen over and over, you might conclude that the rooster is causing the sun to rise.

Of course, this is testable. You could kill the rooster and see what happens. The sun still comes up. But wait just a moment. Just the fact that this one rooster is dead doesn’t mean that all roosters are gone. Some rooster somewhere is crowing and causing the sun to rise. So your little experiment doesn’t disprove the theory.

What a conundrum, right?

If someone is convinced that a bird is controlling the sun, there is probably no way to convince him otherwise.

We can laugh at this example. How can someone be so dumb? Actually, this basic fallacy affects all science in all times, all places, and all subjects. The presumption that a regular pattern showing something happens and then something else happens with regularity implies causation is baked into human thinking. Now and always.

It’s a fallacy, meaning that it is not necessarily true. It could be true, however, subject to serious investigation. And therein lies the real problem. We need to figure out what causes what. But discerning causal agents from accidental ones is the biggest issue in all thinking.

The need to know is baked into what it means to be a rational creature. We just cannot help ourselves. That’s why this fallacy persists everywhere.

There is also the famous case of malaria. It was once believed that infections were worse at nightfall, so the theory was that it was caused by cold air at night. Not crazy, right? Except that the real reason was that the mosquitoes came out in the evenings. They were the real culprit. But a bad theory based on fallacy prevented many people from seeing it.

My goodness, we were overwhelmed by this during the COVID-19 experience. The fake science was overwhelming.

Day after day, we saw loads of fake science of this sort being dumped on the world.

Look, California’s cases are down and California bans gatherings, therefore coercive measures are controlling virus spread!

Not so fast.

These factors could be completely unrelated. We might not even have good data on infections at all. Those are subject to testing (accurate or not) and might be completely wrong on a population level. Even if the data were correct, the low infections could be caused by weather, prior immunity, or something else that we have not considered.

Early on, I can recall looking at these amazing real-time charts of infections and deaths and believing that I had a window into reality. Several times, I even posted things along the lines of “See, Arizona has achieved herd immunity,” without understanding that the data were wildly inaccurate and subject to testing, reporting, and a host of other factors. Even the data were suspect: Misclassification was rampant.

And here too, the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc bit everyone extremely hard. But most of us went along with it.

So crazy did it all become that people including bureaucrats at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention started inventing nutty theories such as that masking protects against virus spread, which science had long proven to be untrue. It became even crazier: You can sit without a mask but walking and standing causes viruses to spread, so that’s when you have to wear a mask!

Absolutely nuts!

It was the same after vaccination.

Countless famous people took to social media to announce they had COVID-19 but it was a mild case thanks to the vaccine. There is simply no way they could know that. They knew for sure that they had the vaccine and they knew for sure that their case of COVID-19 was mild. But believing that one caused the other was simply a matter of faith. It might have been mild regardless. It might have been milder. As time went on, we encountered many studies showing that more vaccination was associated with more infection. Did one cause the other? It’s hard to say.

And yet vast numbers of vaccine studies in the past several years have been affected by this problem. Particularly vexing is the problem of the “healthy user bias,” which is that people who were vaccinated tend to be more compliant and conscientious in other ways too, which meant that initially, it seemed like they had better health outcomes from COVID-19 vaccination, but the results were actually attributable to this bias.

This was revealed in later studies. But the problem of discerning cause and effect from random noise still persists.

The field of medicine has long dealt with this problem. We are mortified that the practice of bleeding patients persisted for centuries even up to the 19th century. How could they have been so stupid? Well, they had a theory that disease was caused by bad humors in the blood so it needed to be drained. Then they observed that the patient got better.

Well, the patient might have gotten better anyway and even faster without bleeding. But it took many centuries to finally realize that. Many non-allopathic medicine people had been screaming about this issue for a long time, but they were ignored as cranks. That’s because bleeding was a conventional practice endorsed by the people with the most professional prestige.

Once you see this fallacy at work, you cannot unsee it. It’s everywhere in medicine but also in economics, health, horticulture, law and sociology, and all the physical world sciences. The gun debate is a good example. There is high crime and there are lots of guns, so people conclude that the guns cause the crime, whereas the presence of guns might simply be a response to crime and a means of protection. Without them, the crime would be far worse.

The fallacy in question drives vast amounts of politics today. There is a tendency to blame any existing president for all existing economic conditions, but the real cause might date further back in time. Still, nearly every debate follows the same lines: This happened; therefore, his actions or inactions caused it. It could be true or it might be the same as the rooster and the sunrise.

We flatter ourselves now that we are beyond such fallacies. They belong only to the superstition-ridden ages of the past. That’s complete nonsense. We are probably more inundated by this fallacy now than ever. Whatever it is that people trust and believe in at any particular time is what people identify as the key to curing whatever malady is around.

Today, people believe in pharmaceuticals. Whatever the issue is, it can be solved by a new lab-created potion. As a result, we are soaked as a society in these, even though the evidence for many of them is scant. The more you look at, for example, the effect of psychiatric drugs, the less it becomes clear whether and to what extent these help or actually may worsen the real problem.

It’s even true with antibiotics. All parents use amoxicillin on childhood ear infections today. But my grandmother swore by putting warm mineral oil in the ear and avoiding conventional meds completely. It took me only a few minutes to discover a 2003 study that randomized whether kids got herbal oils with or without antibiotics. Results: no difference.

The implications are profound. We are so attached to pharma and allopathic strategies that we might be overlooking vast naturopathic and homeopathic methods that work better.

Seizing on one solution and sticking with it prevents the human mind from being creative about other possible and better solutions. Generations can go by in which fallacies rule the day. We can laugh about roosters and sun, bleeding and disease, dances and rain, but how many times do we commit these fallacies in our world today but our dogmatic attachments prevent us from seeing them?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 18:25

Read More

Continue Reading

International

How visas for social care workers may be exacerbating exploitation in the sector

An independent report details ‘shocking’ Home Office mishandling of the visas.

Published

on

By

Ground Picture/Shutterstock

The health and social care visa route was introduced in August 2020 as a response to labour shortages after Brexit and the COVID pandemic. Now, the independent chief inspector of borders and immigration has found that the Home Office’s “limited understanding of the sector” has put care workers at risk of exploitation.

An independent report, published in March, details the Home Office’s “shocking” mishandling of the visas. It highlights problems in the way that the system to give social care providers the ability to sponsor workers from abroad operates. In one case, “275 certificates of sponsorship [were] granted to a care home that did not exist”.

The Home Office responded that this incident involved “a licence granted in the name of a real care home without their knowledge … obtained using false information/evidence”. It has accepted the chief inspector’s recommendations to improve the system, and said that many of these improvements were already underway.

The report details how the Home Office system has buckled under unforeseen demand for visas. The number of registered sponsors tripled from 30,730 organisations in 2019 to 94,704 by the end of November 2023, putting considerable pressure on the officials responsible for checking compliance with UK employment law and preventing migrants from working illegally. These issues are particularly acute in the care sector due to low pay and poor working conditions.

According to the inspector’s report, these weaknesses have created a scenario that puts large numbers of care workers at risk of exploitation. And the nature of restrictive visas, where your legal immigration status is tied to your role at a specific employer, means that care workers are discouraged from raising concerns about pay and conditions out of fear of losing their status.

Exploitation in the care sector

Exploitation in the care sector, including forced labour (a type of modern slavery), has been a concern for years. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation highlighted these issues in a report more than a decade ago. But figures have spiked alarmingly in recent years, according to the charity Unseen, which runs the UK’s modern slavery helpline.

In 2022, the year that the new health and care visa was added to the UK’s shortage occupation list, Unseen recorded a year-on-year increase of 606% in cases reported by care workers. Calls from potential victims of modern slavery from the care sector rose from 708 potential victims in 2022 to 918 in 2023.

My own research shows that care worker exploitation usually falls into one of four areas: debt bondage, recruitment, pay and substandard working practices. Live-in care workers are particularly vulnerable. Migrants may seek out live-in care jobs because accommodation is included.

Workers may become indebted to a recruitment agency, loan shark or members of their own family to secure a visa, only to then find that this is almost impossible to pay off from their wages. They may be deceived by the sponsoring organisation into paying extortionate visa costs – illegal recruitment fees of between £2,000 and £18,000 have been reported. And when they arrive in the UK, some find the job they expected fails to materialise. At least one local authority has identified a small number of such cases of organised immigration crime.

Close up of a care worker holding the hands of a woman.
The visa was introduced to cope with a care worker shortage. Yuri A/Shutterstock

There have also been reports of “clawback clauses” in care workers’ contracts. Some of these clauses require care workers to forego their final month’s salary and to pay back training and immigration costs to their employer. While proportionate repayments are legal, there is little guidance on the exact amounts that can be reclaimed. There have been reports of exit penalties amounting to between £1,300 and £11,500.

Transparency in supply chains

The Modern Slavery Act requires large commercial organisations to publish details of how they are preventing exploitation. But this does not currently apply to the majority of smaller providers or the local authorities who commission social care. The government has yet to make good on its 2019 promise to extend the transparency in supply chains duty to public authorities.

An encouraging number of local authorities have participated voluntarily, and have added their statements to a repository run by the Local Government Association.

But the government should be doing more to require transparency, given the level of exploitation still in the sector. The introduction of sanctions on all organisations who fail to publish annually could also encourage compliance and, as in other countries, provide valuable compensation funds for survivors.

At Nottingham University’s Rights Lab, I have worked with three English local authorities and the Local Government Association, to publish a set of guidelines for social care commissioners. These guidelines, which build on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Responsible Business Conduct framework, encourage local authorities to shore up worker protection in their social care contracts.

The UK needs social care workers, and visas for them, but even with planned changes to the sponsorship rules, it seems the risk of exploitation among care workers will remain.

Caroline Emberson works for the University of Nottingham. She has received funding for her research from the University of Nottingham, the UKs Economic and Social Research Council and the charitable foundation Trust for London.

Read More

Continue Reading

International

Fauci To Testify In Public Hearing On COVID-19 Response, Origins

Fauci To Testify In Public Hearing On COVID-19 Response, Origins

Authored by Stephen Katte via The Epoch Times,

Dr. Anthony Fauci is locked…

Published

on

Fauci To Testify In Public Hearing On COVID-19 Response, Origins

Authored by Stephen Katte via The Epoch Times,

Dr. Anthony Fauci is locked in to testify before the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic on June 3, his first public hearing since retiring as the president’s chief medical advisor in 2022.

Subcommittee Chair Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) announced in an April 24 press release that Dr. Fauci agreed to appear late last year.

“Retirement from public service does not excuse Dr. Fauci from accountability to the American people,” Mr. Wenstrup said.

“On June 3, Americans will have an opportunity to hear directly from Dr. Fauci about his role in overseeing our nation’s pandemic response, shaping pandemic-era policies, and promoting singular questionable narratives about the origins of COVID-19.”

Dr. Fauci testified in a closed door hearing in January.

According to Mr. Wenstrup, Dr. Fauci has already admitted “to serious systemic failures in our public health system,” which he says deserves “further investigation.”

Mr. Wenstrup says among other revelations, Dr. Fauci has said the six feet apart social distancing guidance, recommended by federal health officials and used to shut down small businesses across the country, “’sort of just appeared,” and was likely not based on scientific data.

During the two-day January hearing, Dr. Fauci revealed he signed off on every foreign and domestic NIAID grant without personally reviewing the proposals.

He also admitted that America’s vaccine mandates, which he promoted, could increase the public’s vaccine hesitancy in the future.

Lab Leak—Not So Far-Fetched

At the same time, Dr. Fauci said the lab leak hypothesis around COVID-19’s origins might not be a conspiracy theory, despite his previous very public assertions that it was.

The lab leak theory claims that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was developed at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and was accidentally leaked. In the years since COVID first appeared, this hypothesis has been gaining steam, with even the former head of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) saying it can’t be ruled out as an option.

Mr. Wenstrup claimed that during the previous hearing, Dr. Fauci said he “did not recall” specific COVID-19 information and conversations relevant to the Select Subcommittee’s investigations over 100 times.

A full transcript is expected to be released before the public hearing in June.

Mr. Wenstrup believes the testimony shared so far “raises significant concerns about public health officials and the validity of their policy recommendations during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

“We also learned that he believes the lab leak hypothesis he publicly downplayed should not be dismissed as a conspiracy theory,” he said.

“As the face of America’s public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic, these statements raise serious questions that warrant public scrutiny,” Mr. Wenstrup added.

Following Dr. Fauci’s hearing, the select subcommittee will also hold a public hearing with EcoHealth Alliance president Dr. Peter Daszak on May 1.

Mr. Wenstrup said it “will serve as a crucial component of our investigation into the origins of COVID-19 and provide essential background ahead of Dr. Fauci’s public hearing.”

“We look forward to both Dr. Fauci’s and Dr. Daszak’s forthcoming and honest testimonies, and appreciate their willingness to voluntarily appear before the Select Subcommittee for public hearings.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 15:05

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Sixth Time The Charm? Meet The ZiG: Zimbabwe’s New ‘Gold-Backed’ Currency

Sixth Time The Charm? Meet The ZiG: Zimbabwe’s New ‘Gold-Backed’ Currency

Authored by Peter C. Earle via The American Institute for Economic…

Published

on

Sixth Time The Charm? Meet The ZiG: Zimbabwe's New 'Gold-Backed' Currency

Authored by Peter C. Earle via The American Institute for Economic Research,

Zimbabwe’s historical relationship with money has been inundated with mistakes, recklessness, and hardship. During the peak of its 2008 hyperinflation, the nation experienced a catastrophic economic downturn, characterized by the issuance of billion- and trillion-dollar banknotes that were, despite their nominal enormity, virtually worthless. Recent economic challenges have revived painful memories of that era with the resurgence of inflation (currently at 55 percent), a return to the US dollar, euro, and South African Rand as de facto currencies, and the necessity of using large physical stacks of bills to purchase basic commodities like bread and eggs.

On April 5, a new currency was announced.

Later this month, the ZiG (Zimbabwe Gold) will replace the current monetary unit, the Zimbabwean Real Time Gross Settlement dollar (RTGS). The ZiG marks a sixth attempt by the Zimbabwean government and central bank to introduce a currency unit that sets its monetary house in order. 

Upon declaring independence in 1980, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) issued the original Zimbabwe dollar (ZWD) to replace the Rhodesian dollar at par (1:1). Over the subsequent two decades, the money supply expanded amid fiscal mismanagement, policy errors, and authoritarian governance. Denominations of the ZWD grew from two, five, and 10 ZWD denominations into bills marking hundreds, thousands, and millions of units, each with precipitously dissipating purchasing power. 

In August 2006, the first attempt to reform the original ZWD was undertaken.

The RBZ recalled outstanding currency notes, replacing them with redenominated notes of one one-thousandth the value of the previous notes by slashing three decimal places.

Roughly two years later, in August 2008, a second redenomination marked the third ZWD reissue, this time slashing ten decimal places.

By this point, prices were at least doubling on a daily basis. Thus did each ten billion ZWD note become one ZWD to address the increasingly unwieldy terms of face-to-face market transactions. The apex of the hyperinflation was reached with the issue of the 100 trillion ZWD banknote, after which in February 2009 — barely six months later the previous redenomination — twelve zeros had to be removed from currency units. This was the fourth ZWD issue. By this point, the 1980 ZWD had been whittled down to one-sextillionth (0.000000000000000000001) of its initial value. Errors in simple transactions became commonplace, with both calculators and computers unable to handle fundamental accounting operations. Agriculture, a difficult commercial undertaking even with a stable currency, is all the more challenging when consummated in units usually reserved for astronomers.

By the end of 2008, 28 years of inflation topped a total 231 million percent.

The ZWD was demonetized in 2009, with the Euro, the South African Rand, and the US dollar as well as smaller, regional currencies supplanting it.

In 2015, that process was completed, with every 35 quadrillion ZWD presented at a bank being retired for a single US dollar.

Alongside a wide array of currencies in use throughout the next few years were Zimbabwean government bond notes.

In 2019, the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) dollar was issued, but quickly ran into trouble — even before the COVID pandemic broke out. Inflation followed yet again, and the use of international currencies — which had been outlawed upon the introduction of the RTGS — was again legalized. When issued, the RTGS was set at an official exchange rate of 2.5 per US dollar. Since the start of 2024, though, it has lost 80 percent of its value, recently trading at 30,671 per US dollar. At this rate of inflation, an item that cost $100 US dollars in 1980 would have cost over $700 billion dollars by 2023. 

USD-ZIM/RTGS exchange rate (2022 – present)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

On April 30, 2024, RTGS units will be exchangeable for ZiG as the new coins and bills begin circulating. RBZ Governor John Mushayavanhu has announced the initial exchange rate for the ZiG at 13.56 per US dollar, with subsequent rates to be determined through interbank markets. Hopes for the success of the ZiG are underpinned by a reputed $185 million worth of gold and other reserves backing it. There are practical hurdles, though.

The sustainability of a gold-backed currency like ZiG is uncertain considering the limited extent of Zimbabwe’s physical gold reserves relative to the desired exchange rate. Moreover, the absence of concurrent measures from its trading partners leaves the new currency susceptible to fluctuations in gold prices. Black markets, which speak truth to a fault, are registering doubt.

And investors in the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange in Harare have made no secret whatsoever about their cynicism, sending stock prices down 99 percent in several hours after the ZiG announcement.

Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (Jan 2024 – present)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

Zimbabwe still relies upon printing money to finance its budget deficits. Although Mushayavanhu has adamantly pledged to avoid this practice, at the onset the ZiG faces an uphill battle to claim public trust, given nearly a half century of monetary disasters. Moreover, the government’s insistence on accepting payments for certain services exclusively in US dollars, such as road toll fees and passport processing, is undermining confidence in the new money even before it begins changing hands.

Reports indicating that the government will require tax payments in mixed currency are further dimming prospects for the ZiG’s acceptance and viability.

The Zimbabwean government has, in addition, associated the latest monetary project with the global dedollarization movement. While there remains a possibility for the ZiG to outperform its predecessors, the country’s tumultuous economic history, transitioning from hyperinflation to hyper-dollarization and currently grappling with double-digit inflation and interest rates, underscores deep-rooted issues beyond mere monetary policy, including governance deficiencies and corruption risks. Ruinous policies which have destroyed the productiveness of the nation’s economy, as well as the classic blame-mongering of businesses for the rising general price level (something Americans have borne witness to recently as well) have been commonplace. Without comprehensive fundamental reforms addressing these systemic challenges, Zimbabwe risks perpetuating its reliance on emigration as a coping mechanism alongside the enduring symbol of its economic turmoil, the multi trillion-dollar banknote. The efficacy of any monetary system, whether a commodity standard or any other, hinges singularly upon the integrity and competence of its custodians.

Dissipated Zimbabwean cash is thumbtacked to many a bulletin board, and fetches many more US dollars in exchange on eBay than it ever did in its circulatory prime. The trinketization of that money, however, has come at great human cost. According to the US Agency for International Development, a staggering 63 percent of Zimbabwean households endure poverty, with one in eight experiencing extreme deprivation. That juxtaposes with the nation’s abundant mineral resources, spanning over 40 distinct minerals: platinum group metals, gold, coal, lithium, and diamonds among others. Despite that potential wealth, the realization of economic advancement remains contingent upon substantive political reforms. 

Even the most faithfully implemented commodity-backed money standard is fundamentally predicated on the integrity and competence of its overseers. Successive waves of spectacular currency destruction speak to a deeper illness in economic and political institutions, strongly alluding to systemic vulnerabilities. One hopes, for the sake of the long-suffering citizens of Zimbabwe, that this time around the result of yet another monetary reconstitution is successful, fostering a stable general price level, a reliable monetary unit for saving and spending, and enhanced possibilities for economic calculation. Without fundamental changes guaranteeing private property protection, pro-market reforms, and safeguards against corruption, though, the ZiG is likely to retrace the unfortunate steps of its predecessors.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/25/2024 - 13:50

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending