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“The Correction Has Further Room To Go”: Futures Recover Early Losses As European Markets Jump

"The Correction Has Further Room To Go": Futures Recover Early Losses As European Markets Jump

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"The Correction Has Further Room To Go": Futures Recover Early Losses As European Markets Jump Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2020 - 08:36

While the US is celebrating Labor Day and enjoying the last days of summer, markets started the Asia session with a selloff, extending last week’s decline amid disappointment that Tesla wasn’t added to the S&P 500. E-mini futures fell as much as 1.1%, before eventually recovering all losses and turning slightly green.

Even though futures managed to recover from a sharp early loss, valuation is emerging as a concern for U.S. investors and there’s also nervousness about extreme positions in technology stocks now that it has emerged that the August ramp had nothing to do with fundamentals, technicals, outlooks, etc but was the byproduct of one man with more money than brains, buying up every call option he could find and creating the biggest "gamma squeeze" in history.

The exclusion of Tesla from a group of companies that were being added to the S&P 500 weighed on the electric car maker's Frankfurt-listed shares, which were last down 3%.

Meanwhile, world shares rose 0.2% after hitting a record high last week as central bank stimulus drove asset valuations to heady levels, but the rally has since cooled as tech stocks sold off while worries over patchy economic recovery dogged investors. Sharp sell-offs have recovered quickly in recent months though analysts expect further downside to this leg due to rising cross-asset volatility. “Our risk indices have begun to turn from their euphoria highs,” Jefferies said, adding that it was switching its weighting on MSCI All World index to “tactically bearish” in the short term. “On the balance of probabilities, last week’s correction has further room to go.”

European stocks rose extended early gains in a broad rally led by autos, industrials and health-care stocks. The Stoxx 600 rose as much as 1.5%, trimming last week’s losses while the auto sector index gained 2.2%, hitting highest level since Feb. 27, while banks underperformed, with the SX7P index up 0.2%. UK stocks, meanwhile, climbed 2% helped by a falling pound with Brexit talks plunging into crisis following Britain’s threat to override its EU divorce deal. Sterling fell around half a percent against the dollar and euro on Monday. “It is almost inevitable that the perceived probability of ‘no deal’ will escalate over the coming weeks,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note.

Earlier, Asian stocks fell: the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was last down 0.2% after two straight days of losses toppled it from a 2-1/2-year peak last week. The drop was led by communications and consumer staples, after falling in the last session. Markets in the region were mixed, with Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index falling, and South Korea's Kospi Index and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rising. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.5% with SoftBank coming under heavy selling following media reports it has spent at least $4 billion buying call options on listed U.S. technology stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 1.9%, with Advanced Micro-Fab and NINGBO MENOVO posting the biggest slides. China's country's largest and leading homegrown chipmaker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) tumbled on speculation the company may be added to Trump's sanctions list.

Overnight we got the latest trade data out of China, where exports accelerated to 9.5% yoy in August from +7.2% yoy in July - rising to the third-highest level on record, due to demand for medical goods, electronics, and the effects of major trading partners gradually resuming business activities. The jump was also helped by a low base (exports fell 2.7% mom sa in August 2019) and slightly above consensus expectations, with sequential growth down to +0.2% month-on-month (sa non-annualized) in August (vs. +5.9% in July). In contrast, imports shrank 2.1% yoy in August, down further from a decline of 1.4% yoy in July, slightly below consensus expectations with traders eyeing an unexpected second consecutive drop in oil imports. In month-over-month terms, exports slowed to +0.2% sa non-annualized in August (vs. +5.9% in July). Imports resumed a decline of 0.2% sa non-annualized in August (vs. -1.2% in July). China's trade surplus remained strong at US$58.9bn in August, though down from US$62.3bn in July.

As Goldman notes, China's export growth remained strong in August in year-on-year terms although as the bank notes, "in coming months, slower growth of exports related to COVID-19 and relatively high base could weigh on headline exports growth, though a rebound in global growth could provide support." For major commodity imports, in value terms, copper imports slowed to 67.2% yoy in August (vs. 72.0% yoy in July); iron ore imports decelerated to -4.9% yoy in August (vs. +10.6% yoy in July); crude oil imports continued to fall on a year-over-year basis (-24.6% in August, vs. -26.8% yoy in July). In volume terms, copper imports growth moderated to 67.1% yoy in August (vs. +81.5% yoy in July); iron ore imports decelerated to 5.8% yoy in August (vs. +23.8% yoy in July); crude oil imports increased 12.6% yoy in August (vs. +25.0% yoy in July).

Global equities fell the most since June last week as doubt crept into investors minds about whether equities have risen too quickly and valuations are reaching extremes according to Bloomberg. US technology shares, which have seen a powerful rally through the depths of the pandemic, showed signs of buckling at the end of the week amid reports that huge options bets were fanning their gains. The roller coaster ensnared SoftBank Group Corp., which tumbled 7% after the market caught up with what Zero Hedge readers knew since last Thursday, that the Japanese conglomerate had made massive bets on tech-linked options trades.

"I don’t think this is a start of a downturn in asset prices," said Robert Greil, chief strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers AG in Munich. "We’re only in the first phase of the economic recovery, which makes a major downturn unlikely. Naturally, setbacks are buying opportunities in such an environment."

In currency markets, the dollar steadied in holiday-thinned trade on Monday, while traders shifted their focus to the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. Most analysts don’t expect a change in policy stance. The message the ECB will deliver on its inflation forecasts is likely to set the direction for the euro, which has surged in the past few months. The dollar was flat against the yen at 106.28 ahead of a heavy week of macroeconomic data with figures on household spending, current account and gross domestic product due on Tuesday.

In commodities, oil prices hit their lowest since July, after Saudi Arabia made the deepest monthly price cuts for supply to Asia in five months. U.S. crude fell 1.26% to $39.19 a barrel. Brent crude skidded to $42.11. As Bloomberg reports, "oil extended its retreat drop $40 a barrel after Saudi Arabia cut pricing for October crude sales, as demand struggles to fully recover from the coronavirus outbreak." Futures in New York dropped 1.7% after Saudi Aramco reduced its key Arab Light grade by a larger-than-expected amount for shipments to Asia in a sign that fuel demand in the largest oil-importing region is wavering. The company also lowered prices to the U.S. for the first time in six months. Eslewhere, Chinese crude imports fell for a second month in August, and the world’s biggest importer is expected to purchase much less in September and October than it did in May and June as independent refiners run out of quota after a buying binge earlier this year.

Markets activity will remain subdued on Monday with the U.S. closed for the Labor Day holiday.

A quick look around global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equity markets began the week indecisively as the region reflected on Friday’s varied US jobs release and the continued tech-related losses on Wall St, with mixed Chinese trade data and ongoing tensions with the US adding to the cautious approach. ASX 200 (Unch.) traded choppy following the 2-week extension of level 4 lockdown restrictions in Victoria state although strength in the mining-related sectors and financials had initially propped up the index, whilst some economists also hopeful of a further loosening of RBA policy within the next 2 months according to a latest survey. Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) was restricted amid an uneventful currency and notable losses in SoftBank shares which slumped over 7% with investors disturbed by the Co.’s recent aggressive US tech derivatives bets, despite the Co. reportedly sitting on USD 4bln of profit from the options trades. Hang Seng (Unch.) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) also swung between gains and losses amid mixed Chinese trade data which showed a surprise contraction in imports which underscored weakening internal demand. Furthermore, the US is said to mull whether to include China's top chipmaker SMIC to a trade blacklist, which subsequently saw shares in the Co. drop around 20%, while sentiment in Hong Kong was also mired after protests resumed on Sunday in which nearly 300 were arrested.

European equity futures kick the week off firmer across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%) as the region deviates from the mostly softer APAC lead and downbeat Wall Street performance on Friday. Further divergence is experienced between European and US equity futures, with the latter softer as US stimulus talks are seemingly making no progress, whilst US participants enjoy a long weekend due to Labor Day market holiday (desk schedule available on the headline feed). Back to Europe, UK’s FTSE 100 (+1.5%) narrowly outperforms peers with the aid of a favorable currency, whilst broad-based gains are seen across the EU. Sectors in the region are all in positive territory with no clear risk profile to be derived. Energy and Telecoms underperform with the former due to lower oil prices and the latter amid reports that Samsung has signed a USD 6.6bln 5G contract with Verizon, reportedly syphoning a portion of 5G radio contracts from Nokia (-0.4%). To the upside, Autos, and Financials are among the top performers, with the former propped up by Renault (+2.9%) after the group appointed Nicolas Maure as the head of ensuring the group’s turnaround, whilst shares also benefit from JPMorgan Chase reiterating the stock with “Overweight”. Banks saw tailwinds at the cash open from the last week’s Bankia/Caixabank merger talks, raising prospect for European banking consolidation. In terms of other individual movers. Airbus (+2.7%) is supported as sources noted that global fleets back in service in July rose to 60-65% from April’s 25%. Roche (+0.8%) holds onto gains after receiving FDA approval for Gavetro in the treatment of adults with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer. Separately, COVID-19 home antibody tests produced by the Co. are once again available for sale in the UK after validating the test in August; following a temporary UK ban in May.

 

In FX, sterling stands as the G10 laggard in early trade in light of a slew of Brexit developments over the weekend which added to the pessimism on an agreement reached with the EU ahead of the October deadline. First, PM Johnson  brough forward the touted deadline to October 15th from the prior October 31st in order for a deal to be effective by year-end (a change EU sources are brushing off), but more notably the PM is said to be planning a new legislation to override the withdrawal agreement signed last October, in a move that threatens upcoming negotiations and unsurprisingly received backlash from Brussels. Meanwhile, Brexit negotiator Frost also reaffirmed the government’s stance that the UK does not fear a no-deal Brexit. Furthermore, on the pandemic-front, UK reported 2,988 cases on Sunday vs. 1,813 infections on Saturday, the largest increase since 23rd May and a development that sparked concern in the Health Ministry. Cable has breached the figure to the downside before taking out its 21 DMA at 1.3184 and dipping below Friday's low at 1.3177. Meanwhile, aside from the commencement of the latest Brexit negotiation round, BoE’s Haskel is on the docket for a speech at the European Commission’s programme on 'Moving the Frontier of Macroeconomic Modelling of Research & Innovation'.

  • DXY, EUR - The Dollar index remains caged within a tight range just sub-93.000 (92.816-92.982), with most of the overnight action derived from the softer Pound amidst a lack of Dollar-specific catalyst, and with US players away on account of Labor Day Holiday. In terms of upside levels, DXY sees the 3rd Sept high at 93.074 followed by last week’s peak at 93.242, whilst Friday’s low (92.770) could prove to be mild support. Elsewhere, the single currency has been moving at the whim of the Buck, but EUR/USD also remains contained withing a narrow 1.1825-50 band and with little immediate reaction seen upon the early release of an improved EZ Sentix index and in the run-up to this week’s ECB policy decision and forecasts. In terms of pertinent FX option expiries, today’s NY cut sees EUR 2bln rolling off between 1.1800-10.
  • AUD, NZD, CAD - The high-beta non-US Dollar show varying performances, with the Aussie faring somewhat better than its Kiwi and Loonie counterparts. CAD sees pressure amid lower oil prices with Saudi’s oil giant Aramco hinting to softer demand via OSP cuts across all grades to the US and Far East. USD/CAD meanders around the 1.3100 mark (vs. low ~1.3050) ahead of its 21 DMA at 1.3167. The Kiwi saw some weekend comments from RBNZ Governor Orr who reiterated that the central bank is actively preparing a package of additional monetary policy tools to support the economy if required, including negative wholesale interest rates and direct funding to banks. The governor also noted that the MPC agreed that a ‘least regrets’ policy response was to ease monetary conditions significantly. NZD/USD hovers on either side of 0.6700 with little in the way of technical levels ahead of the mid-psychological levels at 0.6650 and 0.6750.  The Aussie trades sideways amid a mixed bag of Chinese trade data which saw a wider than forecast trade balance, but imports showed surprise contractions. AUD/USD seems to get gleaning more support from the AUD/NZD cross which holds above 1.0850.
  • JPY, CHF - Both relatively flat and moving in tandem with the Dollar amidst a lack of fresh fundamental newsflow and the US market holiday. USD/JPY holds its head above 106.00 (106.14-38 range), with the NY eyeing USD 1.2bln in option expires at strikes 106.00-15. Meanwhile, USD/CHF retains a 0.9100+ status in a 20-or-so pip parameter at the time of writing, whilst Swiss sights deposits remain elevated heading into this month’s quarterly SNB meeting.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures saw pressure at the reopen and remain subdued as Saudi Aramco cut its October official selling price (OSPs) across all grades for the Far East and US, in a sign the group sees a pullback in demand against the backdrop of rising global COVID-19 cases. Aside from that, news-flow today has been light. Reminder, WTI futures will not see a settlement today on account of US Labor Day holiday. WTI October hovers around USD 39/bbl (vs. low 38.58/bbl) whilst Brent November trades on either side of USD 42/bbl. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver mirror Dollar action, with the former around USD 1930/oz having had found a mild base at 1928/oz, whilst the latter languishes around USD 28.75/oz. Finally, Shanghai copper was supported by firm export numbers from China, albeit upside was capped by lower than expected imports, whilst iron ore imports fell some 10.9% in July due to falling shipments and COVID-19 related restrictions.

US Event Calendar:

  • Labor Day Holiday

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As a heads up, tomorrow we will publish our latest annual long-term study. This year’s is entitled “The Age of Disorder”. It’s a big document but there is an 8-page executive summary that covers the whole piece. So please can I book at least 20 minutes of all your time from tomorrow lunchtime to read the exec summary. If you’re hooked feel free to read more!!!

Today should in theory be quiet-ish due to the US Labor Day holiday. However the market will be trying to come to terms with last week’s late tech rout that at one point saw the NASDAQ down c.10% in little over 24 hours between the open on Thursday and early trading on Friday. There had been bubbling speculation about a big option buyer in US stocks through August and the FT unmasked this as being SoftBank on Friday.

The story suggested they had been buying single stock call options on tech companies in large sizes and that overall volumes of calls on individual US stocks was more than triple the last 3 year average over the prior two weeks. This volume was causing dealers to hedge the contract exposure by buying stock and driving the underlying tech stocks even higher.

To be fair retail investors have also played their part in this. The fevered option activity might explain why August saw the S&P 500 (+7%) and NASDAQ (+9.6%) up aggressively but with the VIX also +2 points higher on the month. The VIX almost always moves in the opposite direction to the market so the best August for US equities for over 30 years would have normally brought about a notable drop in vol. Now that these trades have been uncovered they are likely to continue to influence trading so expect a bumpy ride ahead as we find an equilibrium and traders look to exploit their new found knowledge. Experience tells you we haven’t heard the last of this story and that unintended consequences often happen around these type of events. I remember back in 1998 when LTCM was unraveling one of the big trades that unwound was the U.K. swaps market as there was a levered convergence trade on between the U.K. and Europe that needed to be liquidated. We’re nowhere near this stage but just a warning if the rout intensifies.

Asian markets have started the week on a mixed footing with the Nikkei -0.20%, Asx -0.14% and the Shanghai Comp -0.16% all down while the Hang Seng +0.05% and Kospi +0.70% are up. Outperformance of the Kospi this morning may be on the back of the continued decline in new COVID-19 infections since the second wave began (more below). In FX, one of the big movers is the British pound which is trading down -0.34% at 1.3235 ahead of negative news (see below) on the fresh Brexit talks that start this week. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading down -0.31% and -1.11% respectively. However, in Europe futures on the Stoxx 50 and Dax are both up +1.02% and +1.03% respectively. Elsewhere oil prices are trading down c. -1% this morning. In terms of data, China’s August exports grew 9.5% yoy (vs. 7.5% yoy expected) while imports came in at -2.1% yoy (vs. +0.2% yoy expected) bringing the August month trade balance to $59.9bn (vs. $49.7bn expected).

Brexit is returning to the headlines as the latest round of negotiations between the UK and the EU takes place on their future relationship. The probability of a deal seems to be reducing with state aid the surprising current sticking point. Britain which traditionally relies on this far less than Europe seems to be intent on giving itself maximum flexibility on this going forward. We will see if attitudes soften. Last night the FT reported that the U.K. is looking to legislate the rolling back of some of the withdrawal agreement, including on areas such as state aid and Northern Ireland. This has certainly raised the stakes at a fraught time in talks. The U.K. seem to be briefing hard in the media that they are quite prepared to walk away from talks if no progress is made.

Onto coronavirus numbers from the weekend now. These highlighted that the virus is continuing its spread in Europe with the UK reporting 2,987 cases over the past 24 hours, the most in more than three months while France also reported another 7,071 cases yesterday after reporting 8,550 cases the day before. France’s health ministry said yesterday that the pandemic is continuing to progress at a “worrying” pace and added, “The virus circulation is particularly active among young adults,” probably for lack of social distancing. That being said, case numbers in Germany are coming down again as the country reported only 670 new infections in the past 24 hours and Italy, the hotspot for Europe in the first wave, reported a relatively modest 1,296 new cases. Across the other side of world, India has become the second most infected country as it recorded 90k+ infections in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile South Korea reported 119 new cases, the fewest new infections in three weeks. Elsewhere the State of Victoria in Australia announced only a gradual easing of lockdown restrictions with residents still to face restrictions on when they can leave home until October 26, or until there are fewer than 5 new Covid-19 cases a day. The state has also said office staff will be told to work from home until at least November 23.

Moving on, in terms of the planned events over this week, we start to enter Central Bank meeting season with the Bank of Canada (Wednesday) and the ECB (Thursday) coming before the Fed next week who incidentally are now in their media blackout period.

On the ECB our European economists have written (link here ) that there are perhaps two ways that this meeting could go. Either the ECB could seek to buy time through a resolutely dovish message while they await further clarity on the outlook. Or they could take immediate action, perhaps justified through a downward revision to the weak inflation outlook. While a further deposit facility rate cut has not been ruled out, and stronger forward guidance is possible, the Asset Purchase Programme is the primary policy contender if the ECB did act again.

The data calendar is fairly light this week following a number of top-tier releases in the week just gone by. The main highlight will probably come from the US on Friday with the CPI reading for August. For the full week ahead see the day by day calendar at the end.

Reviewing a turbulent last week now. Global equity markets fell sharply as technology stocks took heavy losses for the first time since early in the summer. US stocks ended at two week lows following large selloffs on Thursday and Friday, though some late session buying on Friday kept stocks off their worst levels.

The S&P 500 dropped -2.31% (-0.81% Friday) on the week, only the second weekly loss over the last 10 weeks and the largest weekly drop since the last week of June. As noted the brunt of the selling came from US tech stocks and the Nasdaq massively underperformed this week, falling -3.27% (-1.27% Friday). The early week rally hides some of the late week losses, but from Wednesday’s peak to Friday’s intraday trough the Nasdaq lost -9.9%. In all, it was the worst week for the index since the week ending 20 March, at the depths of the pandemic selling. Though that said, for context, it still finished last week 2pts higher than it closed two Friday’s back on 21 Aug. With US equities plunging, the VIX rose over 30 for the first time since June and the volatility index had its largest one week move (+7.8pts) since the second week of June.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 ended the week -1.86% lower as weekly coronavirus caseloads in France, Spain and the UK are all approaching 3-4 month highs. The DAX (-1.46%) and CAC (-0.76%) outperformed the STOXX 600, while other major European bourses were all lower on the week with the FTSE 100 (-2.76%), IBEX (-2.01%) and FTSE MIB (-2.27%) losing ground.

Core sovereign bonds rose on the week as risk sentiment soured. US 10yr Treasury yields only saw a small weekly change (falling -0.3bps), after bonds sold off sharply on Friday (yields rose +8.3bps) to finish at 0.718%. 10yr Bund yields were down -6.3bps (+1.6bps Friday) to -0.47%. The drop in risk did not affect high yield fixed income as much with European HY cash spreads tightening by -16bps (-1bps Friday) while US HY cash spreads widened just +1bps (+3bps Friday). Peripheral sovereign debt moved lower as risk sentiment waned with Spanish (+3.6bps), Italian (+3.6bps), Portuguese (+3.7bps) and Greek (+10.2bps) 10yr bonds widening to bunds.

The US jobs report showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 1.37 million (vs. 1.35m expected) in August, rebounding for a fourth month in a row. The unemployment rate fell by more than expected to 8.4%, consensus was at 9.8%. One troubling aspect from the report was that the number of permanent job losers rose by more than half a million to 3.41 million, after being little changed in July. The overall strong report elicited positive feedback from Senate Majority Leader McConnell, who indicated that he could not promise additional fiscal aid. This is one to watch, as the US data improves it could harm chances of a compromise on fiscal stimulus.

 

 

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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Another beloved brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The beer industry has been devastated by covid, changing tastes, and maybe fallout from the Bud Light scandal.

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Before the covid pandemic, craft beer was having a moment. Most cities had multiple breweries and taprooms with some having so many that people put together the brewery version of a pub crawl.

It was a period where beer snobbery ruled the day and it was not uncommon to hear bar patrons discuss the makeup of the beer the beer they were drinking. This boom period always seemed destined for failure, or at least a retraction as many markets seemed to have more craft breweries than they could support.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The pandemic, however, hastened that downfall. Many of these local and regional craft breweries counted on in-person sales to drive their business. 

And while many had local and regional distribution, selling through a third party comes with much lower margins. Direct sales drove their business and the pandemic forced many breweries to shut down their taprooms during the period where social distancing rules were in effect.

During those months the breweries still had rent and employees to pay while little money was coming in. That led to a number of popular beermakers including San Francisco's nationally-known Anchor Brewing as well as many regional favorites including Chicago’s Metropolitan Brewing, New Jersey’s Flying Fish, Denver’s Joyride Brewing, Tampa’s Zydeco Brew Werks, and Cleveland’s Terrestrial Brewing filing bankruptcy.

Some of these brands hope to survive, but others, including Anchor Brewing, fell into Chapter 7 liquidation. Now, another domino has fallen as a popular regional brewery has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Overall beer sales have fallen.

Image source: Shutterstock

Covid is not the only reason for brewery bankruptcies

While covid deserves some of the blame for brewery failures, it's not the only reason why so many have filed for bankruptcy protection. Overall beer sales have fallen driven by younger people embracing non-alcoholic cocktails, and the rise in popularity of non-beer alcoholic offerings,

Beer sales have fallen to their lowest levels since 1999 and some industry analysts

"Sales declined by more than 5% in the first nine months of the year, dragged down not only by the backlash and boycotts against Anheuser-Busch-owned Bud Light but the changing habits of younger drinkers," according to data from Beer Marketer’s Insights published by the New York Post.

Bud Light parent Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD) faced massive boycotts after it partnered with transgender social media influencer Dylan Mulvaney. It was a very small partnership but it led to a right-wing backlash spurred on by Kid Rock, who posted a video on social media where he chastised the company before shooting up cases of Bud Light with an automatic weapon.

Another brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Gizmo Brew Works, which does business under the name Roth Brewing Company LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 8. In its filing, the company checked the box that indicates that its debts are less than $7.5 million and it chooses to proceed under Subchapter V of Chapter 11. 

"Both small business and subchapter V cases are treated differently than a traditional chapter 11 case primarily due to accelerated deadlines and the speed with which the plan is confirmed," USCourts.gov explained. 

Roth Brewing/Gizmo Brew Works shared that it has 50-99 creditors and assets $100,000 and $500,000. The filing noted that the company does expect to have funds available for unsecured creditors. 

The popular brewery operates three taprooms and sells its beer to go at those locations.

"Join us at Gizmo Brew Works Craft Brewery and Taprooms located in Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Find us for entertainment, live music, food trucks, beer specials, and most importantly, great-tasting craft beer by Gizmo Brew Works," the company shared on its website.

The company estimates that it has between $1 and $10 million in liabilities (a broad range as the bankruptcy form does not provide a space to be more specific).

Gizmo Brew Works/Roth Brewing did not share a reorganization or funding plan in its bankruptcy filing. An email request for comment sent through the company's contact page was not immediately returned.

 

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Government

Students lose out as cities and states give billions in property tax breaks to businesses − draining school budgets and especially hurting the poorest students

An estimated 95% of US cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors, taking billions away from schools.

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Exxon Mobil Corp.'s campus in East Baton Rouge Parish, left, received millions in tax abatements to the detriment of local schools, right. Barry Lewis/Getty Images, Tjean314/Wikimedia

Built in 1910, James Elementary is a three-story brick school in Kansas City, Missouri’s historic Northeast neighborhood, with a bright blue front door framed by a sand-colored stone arch adorned with a gargoyle. As bustling students and teachers negotiate a maze of gray stairs with worn wooden handrails, Marjorie Mayes, the school’s principal, escorts a visitor across uneven blue tile floors on the ground floor to a classroom with exposed brick walls and pipes. Bubbling paint mars some walls, evidence of the water leaks spreading inside the aging building.

“It’s living history,” said Mayes during a mid-September tour of the building. “Not the kind of living history we want.”

The district would like to tackle the US$400 million in deferred maintenance needed to create a 21st century learning environment at its 35 schools – including James Elementary – but it can’t. It doesn’t have the money.

Property tax redirect

The lack of funds is a direct result of the property tax breaks that Kansas City lavishes on companies and developers that do business there. The program is supposed to bring in new jobs and business but instead has ended up draining civic coffers and starving schools. Between 2017 and 2023, the Kansas City school district lost $237.3 million through tax abatements.

Kansas City is hardly an anomaly. An estimated 95% of U.S. cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors. The upshot is that billions have been diverted from large urban school districts and from a growing number of small suburban and rural districts. The impact is seen in districts as diverse as Chicago and Cleveland, Hillsboro, Oregon, and Storey County, Nevada.

The result? A 2021 review of 2,498 financial statements from school districts across 27 states revealed that, in 2019 alone, at least $2.4 billion was diverted to fund tax incentives. Yet that substantial figure still downplays the magnitude of the problem, because three-quarters of the 10,370 districts analyzed did not provide any information on tax abatement agreements.

Tax abatement programs have long been controversial, pitting states and communities against one another in beggar-thy-neighbor contests. Their economic value is also, at best, unclear: Studies show most companies would have made the same location decision without taxpayer subsidies. Meanwhile, schools make up the largest cost item in these communities, meaning they suffer most when companies are granted breaks in property taxes.

A three-month investigation by The Conversation and three scholars with expertise in economic development, tax laws and education policy shows that the cash drain from these programs is not equally shared by schools in the same communities. At the local level, tax abatements and exemptions often come at the cost of critical funding for school districts that disproportionately serve students from low-income households and who are racial minorities.

In Missouri, for example, in 2022 nearly $1,700 per student was redirected from Kansas City public and charter schools, while between $500 and $900 was redirected from wealthier, whiter Northland schools on the north side of the river in Kansas City and in the suburbs beyond. Other studies have found similar demographic trends elsewhere, including New York state, South Carolina and Columbus, Ohio.

The funding gaps produced by abated money often force schools to delay needed maintenance, increase class sizes, lay off teachers and support staff and even close outright. Schools also struggle to update or replace outdated technology, books and other educational resources. And, amid a nationwide teacher shortage, schools under financial pressures sometimes turn to inexperienced teachers who are not fully certified or rely too heavily on recruits from overseas who have been given special visa status.

Lost funding also prevents teachers and staff, who often feed, clothe and otherwise go above and beyond to help students in need, from earning a living wage. All told, tax abatements can end up harming a community’s value, with constant funding shortfalls creating a cycle of decline.

Incentives, payoffs and guarantees

Perversely, some of the largest beneficiaries of tax abatements are the politicians who publicly boast of handing out the breaks despite the harm to poorer communities. Incumbent governors have used the incentives as a means of taking credit for job creation, even when the jobs were coming anyway.

“We know that subsidies don’t work,” said Elizabeth Marcello, a doctoral lecturer at Hunter College who studies governmental planning and policy and the interactions between state and local governments. “But they are good political stories, and I think that’s why politicians love them so much.”

Academic research shows that economic development incentives are ineffective most of the time – and harm school systems.

While some voters may celebrate abatements, parents can recognize the disparities between school districts that are created by the tax breaks. Fairleigh Jackson pointed out that her daughter’s East Baton Rouge third grade class lacks access to playground equipment.

The class is attending school in a temporary building while their elementary school undergoes a two-year renovation.

The temporary site has some grass and a cement slab where kids can play, but no playground equipment, Jackson said. And parents needed to set up an Amazon wish list to purchase basic equipment such as balls, jump ropes and chalk for students to use. The district told parents there would be no playground equipment due to a lack of funds, then promised to install equipment, Jackson said, but months later, there is none.

Cement surface surrounded by a fence with grass beyond. There's no playground equipment..
The temporary site where Fairleigh Jackson’s daughter goes to school in East Baton Rouge Parish lacks playground equipment. Fairleigh Jackson, CC BY-ND

Jackson said it’s hard to complain when other schools in the district don’t even have needed security measures in place. “When I think about playground equipment, I think that’s a necessary piece of child development,” Jackson said. “Do we even advocate for something that should be a daily part of our kids’ experience when kids’ safety isn’t being funded?”

Meanwhile, the challenges facing administrators 500-odd miles away at Atlanta Public Schools are nothing if not formidable: The district is dealing with chronic absenteeism among half of its Black students, many students are experiencing homelessness, and it’s facing a teacher shortage.

At the same time, Atlanta is showering corporations with tax breaks. The city has two bodies that dole them out: the Development Authority of Fulton County, or DAFC, and Invest Atlanta, the city’s economic development agency. The deals handed out by the two agencies have drained $103.8 million from schools from fiscal 2017 to 2022, according to Atlanta school system financial statements.

What exactly Atlanta and other cities and states are accomplishing with tax abatement programs is hard to discern. Fewer than a quarter of companies that receive breaks in the U.S. needed an incentive to invest, according to a 2018 study by the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a nonprofit research organization.

This means that at least 75% of companies received tax abatements when they’re not needed – with communities paying a heavy price for economic development that sometimes provides little benefit.

In Kansas City, for example, there’s no guarantee that the businesses that do set up shop after receiving a tax abatement will remain there long term. That’s significant considering the historic border war between the Missouri and Kansas sides of Kansas City – a competition to be the most generous to the businesses, said Jason Roberts, president of the Kansas City Federation of Teachers and School-Related Personnel. Kansas City, Missouri, has a 1% income tax on people who work in the city, so it competes for as many workers as possible to secure that earnings tax, Roberts said.

Under city and state tax abatement programs, companies that used to be in Kansas City have since relocated. The AMC Theaters headquarters, for example, moved from the city’s downtown to Leawood, Kansas, about a decade ago, garnering some $40 million in Promoting Employment Across Kansas tax incentives.

Roberts said that when one side’s financial largesse runs out, companies often move across the state line – until both states decided in 2019 that enough was enough and declared a cease-fire.

But tax breaks for other businesses continue. “Our mission is to grow the economy of Kansas City, and application of tools such as tax exemptions are vital to achieving that mission, said Jon Stephens, president and CEO of Port KC, the Kansas City Port Authority. The incentives speed development, and providing them "has resulted in growth choosing KC versus other markets,” he added.

In Atlanta, those tax breaks are not going to projects in neighborhoods that need help attracting development. They have largely been handed out to projects that are in high demand areas of the city, said Julian Bene, who served on Invest Atlanta’s board from 2010 to 2018. In 2019, for instance, the Fulton County development authority approved a 10-year, $16 million tax abatement for a 410-foot-tall, 27,000-square-foot tower in Atlanta’s vibrant Midtown business district. The project included hotel space, retail space and office space that is now occupied by Google and Invesco.

In 2021, a developer in Atlanta pulled its request for an $8 million tax break to expand its new massive, mixed-use Ponce City Market development in the trendy Beltline neighborhood with an office tower and apartment building. Because of community pushback, the developer knew it likely did not have enough votes from the commission for approval, Bene said. After a second try for $5 million in lower taxes was also rejected, the developer went ahead and built the project anyway.

Invest Atlanta has also turned down projects in the past, Bene said. Oftentimes, after getting rejected, the developer goes back to the landowner and asks for a better price to buy the property to make their numbers work, because it was overvalued at the start.

Trouble in Philadelphia

On Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023, an environmental team was preparing Southwark School in Philadelphia for the winter cold. While checking an attic fan, members of the team saw loose dust on top of flooring that contained asbestos. The dust that certainly was blowing into the floors below could contain the cancer-causing agent. Within a day, Southwark was closed – the seventh Philadelphia school temporarily shuttered since the previous academic year because of possible asbestos contamination.

A 2019 inspection of the John L Kinsey school in Philadelphia found asbestos in plaster walls, floor tiles, radiator insulation and electrical panels. Asbestos is a major problem for Philadelphia’s public schools. The district needs $430 million to clean up the asbestos, lead, and other environmental hazards that place the health of students, teachers and staff at risk. And that is on top of an additional $2.4 billion to fix failing and damaged buildings.

Yet the money is not available. Matthew Stem, a former district official, testified in a 2023 lawsuit about financing of Pennsylvania schools that the environmental health risks cannot be addressed until an emergency like at Southwark because “existing funding sources are not sufficient to remediate those types of issues.”

Meanwhile, the city keeps doling out abatements, draining money that could have gone toward making Philadelphia schools safer. In the fiscal year ending June 2022, such tax breaks cost the school district $118 million – more than 25% of the total amount needed to remove the asbestos and other health dangers. These abatements take 31 years to break even, according to the city’s own scenario impact analyses.

Huge subsets of the community – primarily Black, Brown, poor or a combination – are being “drastically impacted” by the exemptions and funding shortfalls for the school district, said Kendra Brooks, a Philadelphia City Council member. Schools and students are affected by mold, asbestos and lead, and crumbling infrastructure, as well as teacher and staffing shortages – including support staff, social workers and psychologists.

More than half the district’s schools that lacked adequate air conditioning – 87 schools – had to go to half days during the first week of the 2023 school year because of extreme heat. Poor heating systems also leave the schools cold in the winter. And some schools are overcrowded, resulting in large class sizes, she said.

Front of a four-story brick school building with tall windows, some with air-conditioners
Horace Furness High School in Philadelphia, where hot summers have temporarily closed schools that lack air conditioning. Nick-philly/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Teachers and researchers agree that a lack of adequate funding undermines educational opportunities and outcomes. That’s especially true for children living in poverty. A 2016 study found that a 10% increase in per-pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public schooling results in nearly one-third of a year of more education, 7.7% higher wages and a 3.2% reduction in annual incidence of adult poverty. The study estimated that a 21.7% increase could eliminate the high school graduation gap faced by children from low-income families.

More money for schools leads to more education resources for students and their teachers. The same researchers found that spending increases were associated with reductions in student-to-teacher ratios, increases in teacher salaries and longer school years. Other studies yielded similar results: School funding matters, especially for children already suffering the harms of poverty.

While tax abatements themselves are generally linked to rising property values, the benefits are not evenly distributed. In fact, any expansion of the tax base due to new property construction tends to be outside of the county granting the tax abatement. For families in school districts with the lost tax revenues, their neighbors’ good fortune likely comes as little solace. Meanwhile, a poorly funded education system is less likely to yield a skilled and competitive workforce, creating longer-term economic costs that make the region less attractive for businesses and residents.

“There’s a head-on collision here between private gain and the future quality of America’s workforce,” said Greg LeRoy, executive director at Good Jobs First, a Washington, D.C., advocacy group that’s critical of tax abatement and tracks the use of economic development subsidies.

Three-story school building with police officers out front and traffic lights in the foreground
Roxborough High School in Philadelphia. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

As funding dwindles and educational quality declines, additional families with means often opt for alternative educational avenues such as private schooling, home-schooling or moving to a different school district, further weakening the public school system.

Throughout the U.S., parents with the power to do so demand special arrangements, such as selective schools or high-track enclaves that hire experienced, fully prepared teachers. If demands aren’t met, they leave the district’s public schools for private schools or for the suburbs. Some parents even organize to splinter their more advantaged, and generally whiter, neighborhoods away from the larger urban school districts.

Those parental demands – known among scholars as “opportunity hoarding” – may seem unreasonable from the outside, but scarcity breeds very real fears about educational harms inflicted on one’s own children. Regardless of who’s to blame, the children who bear the heaviest burden of the nation’s concentrated poverty and racialized poverty again lose out.

Rethinking in Philadelphia and Riverhead

Americans also ask public schools to accomplish Herculean tasks that go far beyond the education basics, as many parents discovered at the onset of the pandemic when schools closed and their support for families largely disappeared.

A school serving students who endure housing and food insecurity must dedicate resources toward children’s basic needs and trauma. But districts serving more low-income students spend less per student on average, and almost half the states have regressive funding structures.

Facing dwindling resources for schools, several cities have begun to rethink their tax exemption programs.

The Philadelphia City Council recently passed a scale-back on a 10-year property tax abatement by decreasing the percentage of the subsidy over that time. But even with that change, millions will be lost to tax exemptions that could instead be invested in cash-depleted schools. “We could make major changes in our schools’ infrastructure, curriculum, staffing, staffing ratios, support staff, social workers, school psychologists – take your pick,” Brooks said.

Other cities looking to reform tax abatement programs are taking a different approach. In Riverhead, New York, on Long Island, developers or project owners can be granted exemptions on their property tax and allowed instead to shell out a far smaller “payment in lieu of taxes,” or PILOT. When the abatement ends, most commonly after 10 years, the businesses then will pay full property taxes.

At least, that’s the idea, but the system is far from perfect. Beneficiaries of the PILOT program have failed to pay on time, leaving the school board struggling to fill a budget hole. Also, the payments are not equal to the amount they would receive for property taxes, with millions of dollars in potential revenue over a decade being cut to as little as a few hundred thousand. On the back end, if a business that’s subsidized with tax breaks fails after 10 years, the projected benefits never emerge.

And when the time came to start paying taxes, developers have returned to the city’s Industrial Development Agency with hat in hand, asking for more tax breaks. A local for-profit aquarium, for example, was granted a 10-year PILOT program break by Riverhead in 1999; it has received so many extensions that it is not scheduled to start paying full taxes until 2031 – 22 years after originally planned.

Kansas City border politics

Like many cities, Kansas City has a long history of segregation, white flight and racial redlining, said Kathleen Pointer, senior policy strategist for Kansas City Public Schools.

James Elementary in Kansas City, Mo. Danielle McLean, CC BY-ND

Troost Avenue, where the Kansas City Public Schools administrative office is located, serves as the city’s historic racial dividing line, with wealthier white families living in the west and more economically disadvantaged people of color in the east. Most of the district’s schools are located east of Troost, not west.

Students on the west side “pretty much automatically funnel into the college preparatory middle school and high schools,” said The Federation of Teachers’ Roberts. Those schools are considered signature schools that are selective and are better taken care of than the typical neighborhood schools, he added.

The school district’s tax levy was set by voters in 1969 at 3.75%. But successive attempts over the next few decades to increase the levy at the ballot box failed. During a decadeslong desegregation lawsuit that was eventually resolved through a settlement agreement in the 1990s, a court raised the district’s levy rate to 4.96% without voter approval. The levy has remained at the same 4.96% rate since.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is still distributing 20-year tax abatements to companies and developers for projects. The district calculated that about 92% of the money that was abated within the school district’s boundaries was for projects within the whiter west side of the city, Pointer said.

“Unfortunately, we can’t pick or choose where developers build,” said Meredith Hoenes, director of communications for Port KC. “We aren’t planning and zoning. Developers typically have plans in place when they knock on our door.”

In Kansas City, several agencies administer tax incentives, allowing developers to shop around to different bodies to receive one. Pointer said he believes the Port Authority is popular because they don’t do a third-party financial analysis to prove that the developers need the amount that they say they do.

With 20-year abatements, a child will start pre-K and graduate high school before seeing the benefits of a property being fully on the tax rolls, Pointer said. Developers, meanwhile, routinely threaten to build somewhere else if they don’t get the incentive, she said.

In 2020, BlueScope Construction, a company that had received tax incentives for nearly 20 years and was about to roll off its abatement, asked for another 13 years and threatened to move to another state if it didn’t get it. At the time, the U.S. was grappling with a racial reckoning following the murder of George Floyd, who was killed by a Minneapolis police officer.

“That was a moment for Kansas City Public Schools where we really drew a line in the sand and talked about incentives as an equity issue,” Pointer said.

After the district raised the issue – tying the incentives to systemic racism – the City Council rejected BlueScope’s bid and, three years later, it’s still in Kansas City, fully on the tax rolls, she said. BlueScope did not return multiple requests for comment.

Recently, a multifamily housing project was approved for a 20-year tax abatement by the Port Authority of Kansas City at Country Club Plaza, an outdoor shopping center in an affluent part of the city. The housing project included no affordable units. “This project was approved without any independent financial analysis proving that it needed that subsidy,” Pointer said.

All told, the Kansas City Public Schools district faces several shortfalls beyond the $400 million in deferred maintenance, Superintendent Jennifer Collier said. There are staffing shortages at all positions: teachers, paraprofessionals and support staff. As in much of the U.S., the cost of housing is surging. New developments that are being built do not include affordable housing, or when they do, the units are still out of reach for teachers.

That’s making it harder for a district that already loses about 1 in 5 of its teachers each year to keep or recruit new ones, who earn an average of only $46,150 their first year on the job, Collier said.

East Baton Rouge and the industrial corridor

It’s impossible to miss the tanks, towers, pipes and industrial structures that incongruously line Baton Rouge’s Scenic Highway landscape. They’re part of Exxon Mobil Corp.’s campus, home of the oil giant’s refinery in addition to chemical and plastics plants.

Aerial view of industrial buildings along a river
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Baton Rouge campus occupies 3.28 square miles. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Sitting along the Mississippi River, the campus has been a staple of Louisiana’s capital for over 100 years. It’s where 6,000 employees and contractors who collectively earn over $400 million annually produce 522,000 barrels of crude oil per day when at full capacity, as well as the annual production and manufacture of 3 billion pounds of high-density polyethylene and polypropylene and 6.6 billion pounds of petrochemical products. The company posted a record-breaking $55.7 billion in profits in 2022 and $36 billion in 2023.

Across the street are empty fields and roads leading into neighborhoods that have been designated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture as a low-income food desert. A mile drive down the street to Route 67 is a Dollar General, fast-food restaurants, and tiny, rundown food stores. A Hi Nabor Supermarket is 4 miles away.

East Baton Rouge Parish’s McKinley High School, a 12-minute drive from the refinery, serves a student body that is about 80% Black and 85% poor. The school, which boasts famous alums such as rapper Kevin Gates, former NBA player Tyrus Thomas and Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Gardner C. Taylor, holds a special place in the community, but it has been beset by violence and tragedy lately. Its football team quarterback, who was killed days before graduation in 2017, was among at least four of McKinley’s students who have been shot or murdered over the past six years.

The experience is starkly different at some of the district’s more advantaged schools, including its magnet programs open to high-performing students.

Black-and-white outline of Louisiana showing the parishes, with one, near the bottom right, filled in red
East Baton Rouge Parish, marked in red, includes an Exxon Mobil Corp. campus and the city of Baton Rouge. David Benbennick/Wikimedia

Baton Rouge is a tale of two cities, with some of the worst outcomes in the state for education, income and mortality, and some of the best outcomes. “It was only separated by sometimes a few blocks,” said Edgar Cage, the lead organizer for the advocacy group Together Baton Rouge. Cage, who grew up in the city when it was segregated by Jim Crow laws, said the root cause of that disparity was racism.

“Underserved kids don’t have a path forward” in East Baton Rouge public schools, Cage said.

A 2019 report from the Urban League of Louisiana found that economically disadvantaged African American and Hispanic students are not provided equitable access to high-quality education opportunities. That has contributed to those students underperforming on standardized state assessments, such as the LEAP exam, being unprepared to advance to higher grades and being excluded from high-quality curricula and instruction, as well as the highest-performing schools and magnet schools.

“Baton Rouge is home to some of the highest performing schools in the state,” according to the report. “Yet the highest performing schools and schools that have selective admissions policies often exclude disadvantaged students and African American and Hispanic students.”

Dawn Collins, who served on the district’s school board from 2016 to 2022, said that with more funding, the district could provide more targeted interventions for students who were struggling academically or additional support to staff so they can better assist students with greater needs.

But for decades, Louisiana’s Industrial Ad Valorem Tax Exemption Program, or ITEP, allowed for 100% property tax exemptions for industrial manufacturing facilities, said Erin Hansen, the statewide policy analyst at Together Louisiana, a network of 250 religious and civic organizations across the state that advocates for grassroots issues, including tax fairness.

The ITEP program was created in the 1930s through a state constitutional amendment, allowing companies to bypass a public vote and get approval for the exemption through the governor-appointed Board of Commerce and Industry, Hansen said. For over 80 years, that board approved nearly all applications that it received, she said.

Since 2000, Louisiana has granted a total of $35 billion in corporate property tax breaks for 12,590 projects.

Louisiana’s executive order

A few efforts to reform the program over the years have largely failed. But in 2016, Gov. John Bel Edwards signed an executive order that slightly but importantly tweaked the system. On top of the state board vote, the order gave local taxing bodies – such as school boards, sheriffs and parish or city councils – the ability to vote on their own individual portions of the tax exemptions. And in 2019 the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board exercised its power to vote down an abatement.

Throughout the U.S., school boards’ power over the tax abatements that affect their budgets vary, and in some states, including Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey and South Carolina, school boards lack any formal ability to vote or comment on tax abatement deals that affect them.

Edwards’ executive order also capped the maximum exemption at 80% and tightened the rules so routine capital investments and maintenance were no longer eligible, Hansen said. A requirement concerning job creation was also put in place.

Concerned residents and activists, led by Together Louisiana and sister group Together Baton Rouge, rallied around the new rules and pushed back against the billion-dollar corporation taking more tax money from the schools. In 2019, the campaign worked: the school board rejected a $2.9 million property tax break bid by Exxon Mobil.

After the decision, Exxon Mobil reportedly described the city as “unpredictable.”

However, members of the business community have continued to lobby for the tax breaks, and they have pushed back against further rejections. In fact, according to Hansen, loopholes were created during the rulemaking process around the governor’s executive order that allowed companies to weaken its effectiveness.

In total, 223 Exxon Mobil projects worth nearly $580 million in tax abatements have been granted in the state of Louisiana under the ITEP program since 2000.

“ITEP is needed to compete with other states – and, in ExxonMobil’s case, other countries,” according to Exxon Mobil spokesperson Lauren Kight.

She pointed out that Exxon Mobil is the largest property taxpayer for the EBR school system, paying more than $46 million in property taxes in EBR parish in 2022 and another $34 million in sales taxes.

A new ITEP contract won’t decrease this existing tax revenue, Kight added. “Losing out on future projects absolutely will.”

The East Baton Rouge Parish School Board has continued to approve Exxon Mobil abatements, passing $46.9 million between 2020 and 2022. Between 2017 and 2023, the school district has lost $96.3 million.

Taxes are highest when industrial buildings are first built. Industrial property comes onto the tax rolls at 40% to 50% of its original value in Louisiana after the initial 10-year exemption, according to the Ascension Economic Development Corp.

Exxon Mobil received its latest tax exemption, $8.6 million over 10 years – an 80% break – in October 2023 for $250 million to install facilities at the Baton Rouge complex that purify isopropyl alcohol for microchip production and that create a new advanced recycling facility, allowing the company to address plastic waste. The project created zero new jobs.

The school board approved it by a 7-2 vote after a long and occasionally contentious board meeting.

“Does it make sense for Louisiana and other economically disadvantaged states to kind of compete with each other by providing tax incentives to mega corporations like Exxon Mobil?” said EBR School Board Vice President Patrick Martin, who voted for the abatement. “Probably, in a macro sense, it does not make a lot of sense. But it is the program that we have.”

Obviously, Exxon Mobil benefits, he said. “The company gets a benefit in reducing the property taxes that they would otherwise pay on their industrial activity that adds value to that property.” But the community benefits from the 20% of the property taxes that are not exempted, he said.

“I believe if we don’t pass it, over time the investments will not come and our district as a whole will have less money,” he added.

In 2022, a year when Exxon Mobil made a record $55.7 billion, the company asked for a 10-year, 80% property tax break from the cash-starved East Baton Rouge Parish school district. A lively debate ensued.

Meanwhile, the district’s budgetary woes are coming to a head. Bus drivers staged a sickout at the start of the school year, refusing to pick up students – in protest of low pay and not having buses equipped with air conditioning amid a heat wave. The district was forced to release students early, leaving kids stranded without a ride to school, before it acquiesced and provided the drivers and other staff one-time stipends and purchased new buses with air conditioning.

The district also agreed to reestablish transfer points as a temporary response to the shortages. But that transfer-point plan has historically resulted in students riding on the bus for hours and occasionally missing breakfast when the bus arrives late, according to Angela Reams-Brown, president of the East Baton Rouge Federation of Teachers. The district plans to purchase or lease over 160 buses and solve its bus driver shortage next year, but the plan could lead to a budget crisis.

A teacher shortage looms as well, because the district is paying teachers below the regional average. At the school board meeting, Laverne Simoneaux, an ELL specialist at East Baton Rouge’s Woodlawn Elementary, said she was informed that her job was not guaranteed next year since she’s being paid through federal COVID-19 relief funds. By receiving tax exemptions, Exxon Mobil was taking money from her salary to deepen their pockets, she said.

A young student in the district told the school board that the money could provide better internet access or be used to hire someone to pick up the glass and barbed wire in the playground. But at least they have a playground – Hayden Crockett, a seventh grader at Sherwood Middle Academic Magnet School, noted that his sister’s elementary school lacked one.

“If it wasn’t in the budget to fund playground equipment, how can it also be in the budget to give one of the most powerful corporations in the world a tax break?” Crockett said. “The math just ain’t mathing.”

Christine Wen worked for the nonprofit organization Good Jobs First from June 2019 to May 2022 where she helped collect tax abatement data.

Nathan Jensen has received funding from the John and Laura Arnold Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. He is a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center.

Danielle McLean and Kevin Welner do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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