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Terminally Online: Always Connected, Rarely Together

Terminally Online: Always Connected, Rarely Together

Authored by Jack Raines via YoungMoney.co,

Two weeks ago, I came across a Washington…

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Terminally Online: Always Connected, Rarely Together

Authored by Jack Raines via YoungMoney.co,

Two weeks ago, I came across Washington Post article discussing American loneliness, and I haven't been able to stop thinking about it since.

The tl;dr: Americans are spending more and more time alone than ever before.

Some shocking stats from this piece:

Similar declines can be seen even when the definition of “friends” is expanded to include neighbors, co-workers, and clients. The average American spent 15 hours per week with this broader group of friends a decade ago, 12 hours per week in 2019 and only 10 hours a week in 2021.

On average, Americans did not transfer that lost time to spouses, partners or children. Instead, they chose to be alone.

No single group drives this trend. Men and women, White and non-White, rich and poor, urban and rural, married and unmarried, parents and non-parents all saw proportionally similar declines in time spent with others. The pattern holds for both remote and in-person workers.

The percentage decline is also similar for the young and old; however, given how much time young people spend with friends, the absolute decline among Americans age 15 to 19 is staggering. Relative to 2010-2013, the average American teenager spent approximately 11 fewer hours with friends each week in 2021 (a 64 percent decline) and 12 additional hours alone (a 48 percent increase).

These new habits are startling — and a striking departure from the past. Just a decade ago, the average American spent roughly the same amount of time with friends as Americans in the 1960s or 1970s. But we have now begun to cast off our connections to each other.

Bryce Ward, Washington Post

You might be thinking, "Of course we spend more time alone. We've been in a pandemic for the last two years. But this isn't just a pandemic thing. This trend started in 2013.

As Ward noted, those lost hours aren't being redistributed to increase our time with different individuals. We are experiencing a net reduction in time spent with other humans across all relationship types.

So where is that time going?

Social media is a likely culprit. While time spent with others in-person has been on the decline since 2012, daily time spent on social media has increased by nearly a full hour over the last decade.

This isn't a shocking revelation. What is your default, go-to activity when you're bored? You probably refresh TikTok and Instagram over and over again. You might scroll through Twitter for an hour (my personal vice). Perhaps you dive down Reddit rabbit holes.

And there goes our time.

In the premier episode of the second season of popular dystopic Netflix show Black Mirror, our protagonist, Martha, is heartbroken after the death of her husband, Ash. At his funeral, Martha's friend Sarah suggests an online service that can create a virtual "Ash" from his social media profiles, videos, and audio recordings. Initially skeptical, Martha agrees after discovering that she is pregnant.

As time passes, Martha grows more and more comfortable communicating with her late husband's chatbot over text and phone conversations, so she decides to test out the service's newest experimental stage: an android programmed to look and act like Ash.

Her excitement wanes as she quickly realizes that while her lover's doppelgänger looks and sounds like its predecessor, it isn't quite him. It is missing the little quirks and mannerisms, that made Ash... well, Ash.

Bringing back a digital version of the dead seems morbid. Dystopic. Absurd, even. And yet, social media has us embracing digital versions of each other every single day.

As a terminally-online Twitter aficionado, I have a lot of Twitter friends. Folks with whom I have exchanged tweets, follows, and DMs. Maybe we have collaborated on projects or hopped on Zoom calls, but we don't really know each other. We just know the Twitter version of each other.

And the version of ourselves that we share online is far from the "real" us. It's refined, premeditated. You can't truly know someone through their online persona any more than an obsessed fan can love a celebrity that they have never met. You only know the idea of them. There are limits to the depths of these online relationships; they must break through the imprisonment of our phone screens in order to grow.

Moving to New York has been awesome because I have been able to turn some of these Twitter friendships into real friendships.

A few examples: Liam Killingstad and I were in the same Twitter Spaces chat ~6 months ago, and we liked each other's content. We hopped on a Zoom call in June to exchange pleasantries (read: take turns making fun of cringe folks that we saw on Twitter), but our relationship did not metamorphose into friendship until he texted me in August, offering to swing by and help me move in. Since then, we have been boys to the fullest extent in NYC.

Nathan Baugh and I connected over Twitter as well, but it wasn't until we met for coffee in Madrid last summer that we hatched the idea of working together on an online course.

Nick Maggiulli was the first established finance writer to take interest in my work, but our relationship was little more than that of two bloggers who respected each other's content until we grabbed drinks in January.

Morgan Housel has been my benchmark for success in finance writing for years, but it wasn't until we met in person that I realized he was a great, genuine dude as well.

This list goes on and on, but as with the android in the Black Mirror episode, there are limits to the relationships that we can develop through online channels alone. You can never really *know* someone until you meet them in person and stare them eye to eye.

And don't think romantic relationships have been spared of this technological perversion either. When you're out with friends, or at a party, or sitting in a coffee shop, or walking through the park, and someone catches your eye, and you want to make an impression, you have to talk to them.

And in order to talk to them, you have to make yourself vulnerable. You have to risk something, the possibility of rejection, in order to establish that connection.

And then you have to engage in a real conversation with this real person; you have to introduce yourself and ask about their life. You have to take a genuine interest in what they have to say, and you have to open up about yourself as well.

You have to follow real, subtle queues such as posture, eye contact, and all those little mannerisms that make you wonder, "Is she in to me?" And then if you want this coincidental meeting to turn into something more, you have to be proactive and ask them on a date.

Dating apps, on the other hand, have reduced living, breathing humans with dreams, goals, fears, aspirations, and stories to binary decisions based on six curated pictures and three prompts stating profound opinions such as "This year I want to TRAVEL."

Serendipitous encounters have been replaced by cheap dating app dopamine.

And no, our preexisting relationships aren't safe from the digitalization of everything either. Yeah, you can direct message, text, call, or facetime your friends. But there exists a crucial layer of intimacy that can only be unlocked when you are face to face.

Those text messages, DMs, and phone calls can't exchange handshakes, high-fives, hugs, and kisses. They don't facilitate those 3-drink-deep conversations filled with back-and-forth banter that spark tears of laughter from everyone at the table.

Facetimes and phone calls are great for recounting the past and planning the future, but you can't experience the present through that fluorescent light on your screen. A five-bar, 5G connection doesn't create new memories, it simply recites old ones.

Social media is the pornography of human interaction. A cheap substitute for an authentic experience that injects you with just enough dopamine to keep you crawling back. And it works so well because it feels so real. As "social" suggests, when you see your friends' pictures and text back and forth with your family, it certainly feels like you are socializing.

And it's so damn convenient, the ability to engage with the world from the comfort of your couch, that we just can't stop. And day by day, year by year, our authentic, face-to-face interactions have been replaced by the convenience of the supercomputers in our pockets.

Relationships built on these digital channels may sound and feel real, but, as Sarah learned with Ash's duplicate, they're missing that *something* that makes them authentic.

And so, despite our ever-increasing connectivity, we are more alone than ever.

My suggestion: stop replacing real life with social media, and start using social media to facilitate real life. The metaverse might sound cool, but I promise you'll have a better time kicking it with your real friends.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Tue, 12/13/2022 - 15:25

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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to star…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.
Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
There is much more in the article.

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Pharma industry reputation remains steady at a ‘new normal’ after Covid, Harris Poll finds

The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45%…

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The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45% of US respondents in 2023, according to the latest Harris Poll data. That’s exactly the same as the previous year.

Pharma’s highest point was in February 2021 — as Covid vaccines began to roll out — with a 62% positive US perception, and helping the industry land at an average 55% positive sentiment at the end of the year in Harris’ 2021 annual assessment of industries. The pharma industry’s reputation hit its most recent low at 32% in 2019, but it had hovered around 30% for more than a decade prior.

Rob Jekielek

“Pharma has sustained a lot of the gains, now basically one and half times higher than pre-Covid,” said Harris Poll managing director Rob Jekielek. “There is a question mark around how sustained it will be, but right now it feels like a new normal.”

The Harris survey spans 11 global markets and covers 13 industries. Pharma perception is even better abroad, with an average 58% of respondents notching favorable sentiments in 2023, just a slight slip from 60% in each of the two previous years.

Pharma’s solid global reputation puts it in the middle of the pack among international industries, ranking higher than government at 37% positive, insurance at 48%, financial services at 51% and health insurance at 52%. Pharma ranks just behind automotive (62%), manufacturing (63%) and consumer products (63%), although it lags behind leading industries like tech at 75% positive in the first spot, followed by grocery at 67%.

The bright spotlight on the pharma industry during Covid vaccine and drug development boosted its reputation, but Jekielek said there’s maybe an argument to be made that pharma is continuing to develop innovative drugs outside that spotlight.

“When you look at pharma reputation during Covid, you have clear sense of a very dynamic industry working very quickly and getting therapies and products to market. If you’re looking at things happening now, you could argue that pharma still probably doesn’t get enough credit for its advances, for example, in oncology treatments,” he said.

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Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt: I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened followi…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

A brief excerpt:
I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble). The two key reasons are mortgage lending has been solid, and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes..
...
And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q3 2023 (Q4 2023 data will be released in a two weeks).

This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 22.6% of loans are under 3%, 59.4% are under 4%, and 78.7% are under 5%.

With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

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