In a previous post, I presented forecasts of recession based on probit models using term spread plus short rate, and term spread plus short rate, foreign...
Here Is What Stops, And What Doesn't, When The Government Shuts Down This Weekend Last week we laid out what the economic consequences of...
Remember those warnings of an economic apocalypse in Seattle as the minimum wage was raised up to $15-16 per hour? Mark J. Perry was at the...
Back in March 2022, Toby Roberts advocated for a dollar cost averaging approach to investing. Considering that The Montgomery Small Companies Fund has...
Nestle CFO Says "People Are Consuming Less" As Food & Beverage Demand Wanes A top executive at Nestlé, the world's largest and most diversified...
Credit Risk Heightens As Equity Gamma Flips Negative Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, Credit spreads are vulnerable to...
Poverty in the U.S. is a choice directly reflecting federal, state, and local policies. The expansion of safety net programs in response to the pandemic-driven...
The argument over trade is one that has been foisted back onto America by the likes of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. While most hold to...
A perfect storm may be brewing for the bond market as a combination of factors drive yields higher. Exhibit A is the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield,...
- by New Deal democratInitial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 211,000. The 4 week moving average declined -6,250 to 211,000. With a one week...
Americans Aren't Buying The "Great Economy" Narrative Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com, The Fed people insist the economy...
What's Behind The Record Divergence Between GDP and GDI, And Why Tomorrow The US Economy Will Be Revised Sharply Lower Tomorrow morning years...
The Great Demoralization Commentary by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), On March 6, 2020, the mayor of Austin, Texas,...
The Issue: For the first time ever in March of 2023, the share of Black Americans employed was greater than the percentage of white Americans with...
Coming tomorrow morning – the revisions to GDP over the last five years incorporating lots of new source data may change substantially our understanding...
We started this year looking at the monthly charts and the 2 moving averages that depict business cycles.Back in February, we wrote:All in all, the key...
Shutdown: Toward The Brink (Or Why This Time Might Be Different) Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com, Should market participants...
German Institutes see 2025 GDP at 1.5% Germany GfK consumer confidence hit lowest since Apr 2023 Euro Zone M3 money supply posts worst drop on record...
Peter Schiff: It's The Beginning Of The End Of This Whole Phony Economy Via SchiffGold.com, Interest rates continue to push relentlessly...
They Courted Chinese Investment. Now They're Running For President Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Wire, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie...
Rabo: "Public Opinion Seems To Be Shifting Behind The Striking Workers" By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank The Beatings...
Credit Card Losses Are Surging At The Fastest Pace Since The Global Financial Crisis One month ago we warned that the toxic cocktail of Volcker-esque...
Is Fed speak weighing on market sentiment? Uncertainty could mount if US government shuts down US30 breaks below 200-day SMA Equity markets are pretty...
New Zealand Business Confidence expected to rebound The New Zealand dollar is slightly lower on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5937 in the North American...
Central banks balance different factors when raising rates – or not – including inflation and the labour market. But what other countries are doing...
Quick Take As a looming recession and potential stagflationary environment draw nearer, CryptoSlate’s analysis reveals the deepening wealth generational...
The current Treasury bear market has been impressive, and unfortunately for the bond bulls, there is no valuation reason for it to stop. For example, the...
American stocks have come under intense pressure in the past few weeks as the fear and greed index is nearing the extreme fear zone of 25....
American stocks have retreated in the past few months, ending the strong momentum that happened earlier this year. The closely-watched Invesco QQQ has...
60% Of US Population Growth Since The Pandemic Is Age 65+ Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Here are some interesting demographic...