Government
Stocks Are “Overbought And Frothy” Warns Wall Street’s Most Accurate Analyst
Stocks Are "Overbought And Frothy" Warns Wall Street’s Most Accurate Analyst
Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/03/2020 – 12:01
Two weeks ago we dubbed Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, the bank’s chief US equity strategist, Wall Street’s most…

Two weeks ago we dubbed Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, the bank's chief US equity strategist, Wall Street's most accurate forecaster. Here's why:
Over the past year, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson has done something virtually none of his colleague have been able to do: he called market moves correctly before they happened and also timed the market's inflection points with uncanny precision: turning bullish at the depths of the March crisis, when most of his peers were apocalyptic, then remaining bullish until just over a month ago, when he warned "brace for a very difficult trading environment over the next five weeks" - which followed with the early September tech dump - and then two weeks after he again correctly predicted that US stocks were due for their second 10% correction in as many months as "investors were a bit too complacent on the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome, unlikely passage of a fiscal stimulus before the election and second wave of Covid-19", the S&P 500 has indeed fallen 9% while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have fallen 10% and 7%, respectively.
He was, again, right.
Then, at the start of November, he reversed his bearish bias, when as we reported he predicted that "the correction we expected is now mostly finished and adding to equities on further weakness this week is recommended."
Since then, the S&P is up +13.5% to a new all time high, the Nasdaq is up +10.8% also to a record high, and after today's Pfizer news, the Russell has exploded 16% higher.
In short, he was right again.
As we also pointed out, just ahead of the "Pfizer vaccine" news, Wilson said he remained a "committed bull" even though the S&P had broken above his price range of 3,150 to 3,550, it appeared clear that most of the "good news" associated with a covid vaccine has been priced in. That did not prevent stocks from continuing to rise as they shifted their attention away from covid vaccines to the fiscal stimulus debate in Congress where a targeted deal now appears imminent.
Wilson, however, was not impressed, and cautioned that in the last few remaining weeks of 2020 he saw the risk of yet another drawdown in stocks, which would be the third 10% correction since September. This will be catalyzed by the market's realization of the "bad news" that "the vaccine won’t be ready for mass distribution for another 3-4 months as case counts and deaths increase." Still, once this small correction is in the rearview mirror, which perhaps may even trigger additional Fed easing during the Dec FOMC meeting when the Fed is expected to extend the maturity of its TSY purchases, Wilson remains "a steadfast bull on a 12-month view in terms of both the earnings outlook and the market."
Wilson's most important point, as we discussed two weeks ago, is not that stocks may or many not dip before grinding higher, but his conviction that rising 10Y yields will hit tech stocks and other equities with record-high duration, while propping up cyclical and value names...
... to wit: "With our economists forecasting 7.5% nominal US GDP growth next year, a 1% 10-year Treasury bond looks awfully mispriced on a 12-month view. This has implications for equity valuations, especially longer-duration ones like the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Conversely, shorter-duration cyclical stocks should get a boost from better growth and higher interest rates – hence the rotation we have been witnessing in the equity markets from the Nasdaq to the small-cap Russell 2000 over the past few months as markets contemplate a full reopening of the economy. We think this rotation has further to go if we are right about the economy and rates."
Since then the 10Y has continued to rise, with the 10Y briefly hitting a post Nov high of 0.96% yesterday before easing modestly on Thursday even as sticky breakevens remained at the highest level in 18 months.
This dynamic, which is precisely what Wilson warned about a month ago, is why the Morgan Stanley strategist appeared on BBG TV overnight, again warning that equities are overbought and at risk of a correction after their recent surge.
And as he did a month ago, Wilson said that one key risk that most people are overlooking is that Treasury yields continue to march higher, which could create jitters that send stocks lower.
"The market is overbought and the market is probably a little bit overvalued quite frankly because interest rates are finally now starting to catch up," Wilson said on Bloomberg TV adding that "the risk in the market now is that as 10-year yields finally start catching up, we have a valuation reset because stocks are a long duration asset, particularly the U.S. stock market."
Needless to say, so far stocks are ignoring his warning and the risk that higher rates will hit long duration equities and even the Nasdaq is up 25bps this morning. We expect that to change as soon as the 10Y rises above 1.0% in the next few days/weeks.
Finally, as in November, Wilson remains bullish and said any selloff in stocks may be a buying opportunity. "It’s gotten a little frothy here in the last couple of weeks,” he said. Any correction would be welcome, "because it would make me more comfortable putting additional capital to work."
Government
Pablo Torre is upending the norms of sports media
Torre was with Sports Illustrated and ESPN before partnering with his friend Dan Le Batard.

Pablo Torre launched his new sports show on Sept. 5, two days before the first NFL game of the season.
Placing his show’s debut so close to the NFL opener was a pragmatic decision. ESPN, Torre’s former full-time employer, divides its work calendar to address the wave of sports coverage that begins during NFL Kickoff, and it chose the same week to have Shannon Sharpe make his debut on its flagship morning debate show ‘First Take.’
Torre’s launch was timely, but the show’s content was peculiar. The premier episode of ‘Pablo Torre Finds Out’ (PTFO) — a sports audio and video show by Meadowlark Media available on the DraftKings Network — wasn’t about football. It was an episode exposing his friend and new boss, Dan Le Batard, one of sports media’s most outspoken voices when it comes to politics, for giving a platform to Donald Trump back when Le Batard’s show was still on ESPN Radio.
The second and third episodes of PTFO — which sandwiched the NFL's season opener — actually touched on the league, but still didn’t focus on the major events shaping the start of the 2023 season. Even when the show covered Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, it was weeks after the romance took over the NFL news cycle.
Pablo Torre Finds Out - YouTube
But PTFO has charted as high as third on Apple and Spotify among sports podcasts, competing with the likes of other flagship shows in the space including his boss’ ‘The Dan Le Batard Show.’
Torre has incorporated a recipe that combines the counter-intuitiveness of dodging major news with an ingredient that’s worked for Le Batard and other outlets like The Ringer with ‘The Bill Simmons Podcast’ or even ESPN with ‘The Pat McAfee Show’ — banking that fans will follow the media personality and care about what they care about.
It’s the whole premise of his show — aptly named after his interest in finding out new things.
“99.9% of sports media is reacting to the biggest story of the week, like the Cowboys won or lost. We're sort of reverse engineering the algorithm,” Torre told TheStreet. “It's going to be different from everybody else, because it's, by definition, personal and human.”
Torre has found his true peace at Meadowlark Media
Torre, who is the son of Filipino immigrants, was the first of his family born in the U.S. The idea of a career in media, particularly in sports, wasn’t on his or his parents’ minds. The endgame of his parents’ global uproot and his Harvard University degree was supposed to be for him to become a lawyer.

Courtesy: Pablo Torre
“I considered the LSAT to be the entire reason why my family came to this country,” Torre, who is 38 years old, said in an April episode of Le Batard’s ‘South Beach Sessions.’
But Torre said the pressure got to him and he “bombed” the LSAT. He shifted his focus to an internship with Sports Illustrated, which he turned into a full-time job as a fact checker. But his parents didn’t consider it to be a “real job."
Torre became what Le Batard jokingly described as the “ambitious, overzealous, overachieving fact checker,” which helped him build a presence as a staff writer on Sports Illustrated. He parlayed that into making on-air appearances when networks needed a representative from SI.
He moved to ESPN in 2012, first as a writer and then eventually into on-air roles such as hosting shows like ‘Highly Questionable’ and ‘ESPN Daily.’

Courtesy: Pablo Torre
But even as his star rose, Torre’s work with SI and ESPN still came with a scent of adherence to the safer career choices that he and his parents imagined for him. These were legacy companies in sports media that, for the most part, provided a safety net in a turbulent industry.
“I’ve only felt confident in terms of job security by working for a big company,” Torre said in April. “I replaced ... law school and that trajectory that I had sketched out and studied, I replaced it with this other trajectory.”
The dependence on his career trajectory peaked when on Feb. 24, 2020, the ESPN show he hosted called ‘High Noon’ was canceled on the same day his daughter was born.
“My insecurity was born alongside my daughter,” Torre said on the podcast.
Related: ESPN doubles down on women's basketball with new deal
Torre would take over ‘ESPN Daily’ months later and find his niche again in the company.
Then this past February, two months before Torre’s ESPN contract expired, Le Batard, Skipper, and Meadowlark CEO Bimal Kapadia gave Torre an offer that would allow him to discover his genuine desire.
“[They] approached me and said, ‘What do you want to do? Here’s a blank piece of paper — design the show you want to make,’” Torre told TheStreet. “I just felt a degree of autonomy and responsibility and trust that I had never been offered so bluntly before … It was also exactly what I had been waiting for my whole life. … I realized if someone else got this opportunity to make something in their own image from scratch, I would be jealous of that person. And so why aren't I sprinting towards this opportunity? And so in the end, I did.”
‘Pablo Torre Finds Out’ is, for better or worse, made in his image

Courtesy: Pablo Torre
In March, months before PTFO was born, Torre began to blatantly advertise his Substack website “www.Pablo.Show” whenever he was on ESPN. The deliberate promotion towed the line between charming and even brilliant versus obnoxious and desperate.
But in his promotion, Torre was already showcasing the tone of his in utero show — an oxymoron of high-level journalism meets psychedelic oddball. The description to his show even reads as, “Award-winning journalist/gasbag Pablo Torre is finally free to f*** around.”
PTFO has three types of shows every week: a deep dive feature, an interview, and ‘Share & Tell’ with people he describes as “friends of the show.” In just a month since PTFO’s premiere, the show has already done a story about transgender athletes in women’s sports, a mysterious failed bidder for the NFL’s Washington Commanders, and a reveal of the alleged trash talk that led to Draymond Green punching Jordan Poole before the 2022-23 NBA season — topics that showcase why Torre won journalism awards while at Harvard and Sports Illustrated.
Related: Transgender high school athlete speaks out in honest interview
Other episodes are whimsical, like uncovering the mystery behind the U.S. Open tennis court with a weed stench or the story of the man who fought Mark Zuckerberg in Brazilian jiu jitsu. Or even having humanizing conversations with no relation to sports like when he spoke about being a parent with Le Batard and their friend and ESPN reporter Mina Kimes.
There’s a contrast between PTFO and Torre’s 700+ episodes at ‘ESPN Daily.’ His past work featured a blend of current news and feature stories, but he said the grind of the daily show took a physical and mental toll on him.
“I took such great pride in ‘ESPN Daily,’ but I always felt like ‘ESPN Daily’ was a sort of case study in how to make a really good show under some absurd constraints, such as you need to make a show every day, you need to respond to the news of that week, and sometimes there are stories that just are going to demand coverage that you're not actually interested in,” Torre said.
Many of his ideas for PTFO have come from the notes app on his phone where he’s consistently, but privately, placed many of his ideas over the years. And he’s finally let them out now because he’s been given the freedom to — and he’s trusting that his curiosity is what allows him to find his place in the saturated sports content machine.
Related: Ex-ESPN host Pablo Torre gets in a strange feud with Vivek Ramaswamy
“I was like, ‘What if I could build an audio and video magazine in which I find stories spurred on by my own curiosity that are not something that anybody else is doing that week?' And I find my way in that way,” Torre said.
Torre received a small stake in Meadowlark Media, which likely made the move to a start-up more palatable. He’s also been granted the flexibility to work with other media outlets — a trend many sports media personalities like Sharpe or Shams Charania have embraced in recent years. He consistently appears on ESPN’s ‘Around The Horn’ and ‘Pardon The Interruption.' In September, he started appearing on MSNBC’s ‘Morning Joe.’
The range of his jobs, which also includes seeding the culture of his new team while balancing fatherhood, has separated this stage of his life from any other. And he said he’s having more fun than he ever has had in his career.
“I should just say that I have no idea what I'm doing — you caught me at a time of great optimism,” Torre said. “I just want to make clear that I, in no way, am somebody who has the secret. I just know that I have a better sense now, and it's more clear than ever of what I’m interested in. And that's all I'm really following.”
It’s no surprise then, that despite all the success, his mom still asks him to clarify his job status.
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Carnival Cruise Line enforces a key main dining room rule
Cruisers love to debate every aspect of eating in the main dining room, but Carnival has drawn a line in the sand on one key issue.

For most people on a Carnival, Royal Caribbean, MSC, or Norwegian (NCLH) - Get Free Report cruise the main dining room serves as a gathering and reset point.
During the day families and friends may go off in different directions, but on most nights they gather in the main dining room for a multicourse dinner experience that generally takes about 90 minutes.
Cruise lines have more small tables, so in many cases you're not sitting with strangers as often as you would have been in the past, but dinners in the main dining room remain an important part of cruising.
Dinner brings everyone on a trip together and creates shared memories even when days are spent in different places.
Related: Carnival Cruise Line CEO openly talks about adding unpopular fee
The main dining room , of course, is not the only option. You can opt for specialty dining or the buffet, or you can just grab a pizza. Still, with the capacity to serve the entire ship across multiple seatings, the main dining room dinners remain a crucial part of the cruise experience on Carnival, Royal Caribbean (RCL) - Get Free Report, MSC, and Norwegian sailings.
Cruisers, of course, love to debate any changes and rules that are enforced or not enforced in the main dining room. Thousands of social-media posts argue how and whether each cruise line enforces its dress code, with some people wanting to wear shorts, hats or flip-flops while others lament that passengers no longer wear tuxedos on formal nights.
Carnival Cruise Line (CCL) - Get Free Report Brand Ambassador John Heald recently touched off a debate, however, when he outlined on his Facebook page one rule that Carnival does enforce.
The Arena Media Brands, LLC and respective content providers to this website may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website.
Image source: Nora Tam/South China Morning Post via Getty
Don't be late for your Carnival main dining room time
Heald spends most days answering questions from Carnival's customers. Sometimes he shares notes that have been sent to him and solicits public response.
BOOK YOUR CRUISE NOW: Plan a dream cruise vacation at the best possible price.
In this case, he shared what happened to one family when it arrived 40 minutes late to its designated meal time.
On our recent Pride cruise from Rome, we had a table of 10. After long days in port, we did not always make it on time for early seating and came into the main dining room at intervals. This really threw our servers off and therefore, OUR service suffered. One evening, we were all 40 minutes late That is all.. The restaurant manager told us we had to eat at the buffet or come back to see if there was a table available at the late seating.
Carnival, like most cruise lines, offers early and late seatings as well as "anytime" dining options. People who have a specific seating will eat at the same table every night, while people with flexible time seating will eat in a different dining room.
The family that arrived late shared more info with Heald.
That is not acceptable with teenagers. If Carnival puts a cruise together with long stays in ports then expect many to be late. We were punished for being 30 mins late. Unacceptable !!! You are monsters!
Carnival's brand ambassador tried to be understanding but also backed the main dining room management's decision.
I also understand as a parent myself that getting a family ready for dinner on time is not easy, especially after a long day in port. However, the waiter has not just this table to serve but others and moving back to serving appetisers while everyone else is about to be served their main course really can cause a massive dollop of stress for the waiter. If perhaps they had Your Time Dinning or late seating it might have been manageable but early seating, nope, I support what the Maitre D did by asking them to use the Lido or come back later for a table
Heald also posted a poll asking his followers to vote on whether directing guests who were 40 minutes late to their seating to the buffet was a correct choice.
His followers overwhelmingly agreed with the cruise line: 97% agreed with the decision and 3% said the cruise line should have tried to accommodate the family.
SAVE MONEY ON YOUR CRUISE: Let our travel experts get you booked and sailing.
A comment from Pam Miller Downey seemed to illustrate how most people felt about the issue.
"They were late...that means not on time..that means they eat somewhere else. Most people who are 40 minutes late wouldn't even dream of going to the MDR. They would automatially go to Lido or one of the other eateries," she wrote.
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Undeniable Toxic Ingredients In HPV Vaccines
Undeniable Toxic Ingredients In HPV Vaccines
Authored by Yuhong Dong via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
In the series, "The HPV Vaccine:…

Authored by Yuhong Dong via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
In the series, "The HPV Vaccine: A Double-Edged Sword?" we will provide documented evidence of death and severe injuries linked with Gardasil, analyze the root cause of its harm, and offer solutions.
The Gardasil vaccine is linked to undeniable death and undeniable severe injuries as previously reported in this series of reports. An ingredient in Gardasil may contribute to these harms.
Let's shift the lens to the beautiful Pyrenees in Europe where sheep were cherished for their wool, nourishment, and companionship. However, a mysterious sheep illness occurred around a decade ago.
Mysterious Post-Vaccine Sheep Illness
In August 2006, an outbreak of bluetongue disease quickly spread to European countries causing a state of emergency.
Bluetongue disease, caused by bluetongue virus (BTV), affects ruminants, mainly sheep, with symptoms of fever, hemorrhages, depression, edemas, and generalized cyanosis, easily observed on the tongue, which explains the disease name.
The totally unexpected outbreak caused by a newly emerged BTV serotype led to a massive compulsory European vaccination campaign implemented between 2007 and 2010. The administered vaccine contained a new ingredient not used in previous BTV vaccines—aluminum (Al)—with 2.08 milligrams per milliliter as the adjuvant, in addition to inactivated BTV.

The campaign seemed to effectively halt viral spreading, however, during the same vaccination period, a series of previously unreported severe diseases emerged in France, Germany, Switzerland, the UK, and Spain, featuring weakness and various neurological symptoms. Veterinarians were stumped, as no known disease explained the tragedy.
Sheep Study Identifies the Problem
Dr. Lluis Lujan, an associate professor of veterinary pathology at the University of Zaragoza in Spain, conducted a sheep study to determine the cause of the unusual diseases.
A total of 21 sheep were assigned into three groups (red, yellow, and green) with seven in each group as follows:
- The red group received commercial sheep vaccines containing aluminum hydroxide.
- The yellow group received the equivalent dose of aluminum dissolved in water (Alhydrogel®, an aluminum-based adjuvant).
- The green group was administered a neutral saltwater solution.
Surprisingly, both the animals from the red and yellow groups became significantly more aggressive and showed more stereotypes and higher stress.

The detected level of aluminum found in the lymph nodes in the lumbar spinal cord was much higher in both the aluminum-only (yellow) and the vaccine group (red) compared with the control group, indicating that aluminum created an extra burden needing to be processed by the sheep.
This explained the phenomenon that the sheep illness occurred only after the aluminum was added to the vaccine as an adjuvant. "So for me, yes—the reason why the animals get sick after vaccination is how the body deals with aluminum," Dr. Lujan stated in a documentary film "Under the Skin," available on Epoch TV.
The idea is not only about sheep. We are looking for something that could be happening in humans.
'Placebo' Trial Participant Had 40+ Symptoms
The Phase 3 clinical trial for Gardasil (FUTURE II study) began in 2002. A particularly large number of participants were recruited in Denmark.
Gardasil clinical trial participant, Sesilje Petersen, developed severe fatigue and a total of 40 symptoms after the second and third shots.
"It was the biggest problem because I was a student at the university and it was very difficult for me to attend the classes as I fell asleep almost daily," Sesilje said. "I wrote a list with all my symptoms—there were more than 40 symptoms, and some of them had been severe. I had a tumor on my pituitary gland."
"I received a letter and was invited to this study and it sounded very interesting. So I decided to participate," recalled Sesilje.
Sesilje kept the information brochure that the participants received at the beginning of the study. It said that the vaccination had already been carefully tested for safety and did not have any serious side effects.
The information about the placebo turned out to be a lie. "It says here that the placebo was saline—the Danish word for saltwater," she said.
Aluminum: A Toxin in Vaccines for 90 Years
Sesilje's "saline" placebo contained something highly unusual—aluminum (Al), an adjuvant commonly used in modern vaccines.
She was obviously misinformed about the study design and was unaware of what she was receiving. Prior to participating in the Gardasil study, Sesilje knew that she could not tolerate deodorants containing aluminum.
"We were not informed about the use of aluminum. The word aluminum was not given to us either in the procedure or in their phone consent form." Sesilje said.
In fact, a study by Doshi et al. found that participants in the Gardasil trials were not adequately informed that the placebo was amorphous aluminum hydroxyphosphate sulfate (AAHS). The trial participants were told they could receive a "placebo" without being informed of noninert ingredients (AAHS). This raises serious ethical concerns about the trial conduct.
Aluminum was first used in human vaccines in 1932 and was the only adjuvant used in licensed vaccines for approximately 70 years. This controversial compound is still used as an adjuvant in vaccines, however, what is its actual role?
Aluminum is the third most abundant metal in the earth’s crust and is widely present in the environment—in plants, soil, water, air, food, and pharmaceuticals. It is present in an ionic form as Al3+.
The absorption of aluminum depends on several factors such as the pH level and the presence of organic acids (citrate, lactate). It is absorbed in a proportion of only 0.1 to 0.3 percent by the gastrointestinal tract in the upper intestine.
However, when aluminum is injected into our muscles in the formulation of a vaccine, it is nearly 100 percent absorbed. It then travels and crosses the blood-brain barrier and accumulates in our brain and other organs.
Aluminum is especially harmful to our brain and nerves, as it plays multiple roles in the clumping of harmful substances (β-amyloid, tau protein) in the brain, leads to the death of brain-protective cells called astrocytes, and disrupts the "protective wall" around the brain resulting in more vulnerability to harmful substances.
Christopher Exley, an English professor of bioinorganic chemistry, is one of the most knowledgeable and widely-cited aluminum researchers in the world, with over 200 peer-reviewed scientific papers published on aluminum and over 12,000 citations.
Renal failure patients dialyzed have developed encephalitis linked to excessive brain buildup of aluminum. Those who passed away had a tenfold higher level of aluminum in gray matter, leading to fatal brain diseases in 30 to 50 percent of cases. Their brain symptoms were correlated with their blood aluminum levels, including issues of speech, coordination, cognition, and fatal seizures.
As a potent toxin, aluminum can severely harm multiple human body systems. Aluminum's toxic effects on our nerves, lungs, muscles, gut, kidneys, and liver have been well documented.
Dietary absorbed ionic aluminum can leave our body through the kidneys, however, most antigen-aluminum mixtures in vaccines are too large for the kidneys to expel out of our body. Accordingly, vaccine aluminum exposure poses a much higher safety risk than dietary aluminum.
According to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), a placebo is defined as "an inactive pill, liquid, or powder that has no treatment value." The well-established toxic properties of aluminum therefore suggest that aluminum cannot constitute a valid placebo.
Toxicity Makes Aluminum an Adjuvant
Almost all modern diseases have their origin in a disturbed immune system. No other drug intervenes in the immune system as intensively as vaccines. The role of vaccine components in human immunity is discussed without taboos in the scientific community.
The gold standard to evaluate the effectiveness of a vaccine is based on the antibody level generated. In the beginning, people were not satisfied with a pure inactivated virus to provoke an immune response and wanted to find a substance to help boost immunity and generate a more robust response with longer-sustained antibodies—that is the adjuvant.
Aluminum was found to be a strong adjuvant.
According to Mr. Exley, "The known toxicity of aluminum is almost certainly a contributor to the success of aluminum-based salts as adjuvants."
A 2016 Nature study provided insight into the cellular toxicity induced by aluminum used as an adjuvant in clinically-approved human vaccinations.
When we inject a vaccine with aluminum into the muscle, we can only imagine what physical and chemical reactions will be triggered. At the very beginning, there may be little response at the injection site. The only reaction may be due to the damage caused by the needle.
"When the vaccine is injected deeply into the muscle tissue, aluminum ions begin to dissolve and start attacking the surrounding cells," Mr. Exley stated in the documentary "Under the Skin."
"So depending upon that rate of dissolution, you will get the degree of cytotoxicity—cell toxicity," he said.
The aluminum ions kill our normal healthy cells and as those cells die, they release chemical messengers, which call for help from the other immune cells.
Immune cells react immediately and start to attack anything suspicious at the vaccination site. A fierce battle takes place.
It is only in the course of this inflammation triggered by aluminum that the silent antigens are now also taken seriously and are transported away by specialized immune cells. Those silent viral proteins are also identified by immune cells as enemies and specific antibodies are produced to bind them.

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