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Stock Market Weekly Wrap Up: The Charts You Need To Have On Your Radar Now

As Q3 and a dismal September end, some interesting dynamics are playing out in the stock market.You can blame higher interest rates for some of the disjuncture…

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2 weeks ago

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As Q3 and a dismal September end, some interesting dynamics are playing out in the stock market.

You can blame higher interest rates for some of the disjuncture that's going on. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) is relatively low, yet the percentage of stocks trading below their 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages is relatively low. Here's the market in a nutshell:

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is trading below its 200-day moving average. 
  • The S&P 500 ($SPX) is trading below its 100-day moving average.
  • The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) is trading below its 100-day moving average. 
  • The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) is relatively low, at less than 18.
  • Year to date, Communication Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary are the three leading sectors. 

We saw a similar scenario unfold in 2005, but there are stark differences between then and now. In 2005, Energy was the leading sector for the year, with Utilities in second place. Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary were the two sectors in negative territory.

The Big Picture

Although history is known to repeat itself, each time, it's still somewhat different. This year, investors are uncertain about inflation and interest rates. Plus, there is the possibility of a US government shutdown that could weave its way into the stock market. As Q3 ends and we gear up for Q4, it's important to have the bigger picture in mind.

Let's start with market breadth.

The chart below gives a good picture of the overall market breadth. The NYSE new 52-week highs ($NYHGH) are slowly rising. The new 52-week lows spiked, but they're slowing down. And if you look at the high/low ratio, it's pretty flat.

CHART 1: S&P 500 AND MARKET BREADTH. If there was one word to sum up the performance of the stock market, it would be "meh!" There's not much momentum in either direction.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The market seems to be lacking momentum. Sometimes, it looks like it will move up, but sellers come in and cap the move. Similarly, when the market looks like it's going to sink, buyers prop it up. So what catalyst will move the market in either direction? Will it be earnings, or something else?

The general thinking among Wall Street analysts is that Q4 will see strong earnings, which could be the catalyst the market is waiting for. But, on the flip side, Treasury yields are high. And higher yields haven't been great for growth stocks.

The chart below shows the relationship between the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury Yield Index ($TNX). In the last half of September, the two diverged significantly.

CHART 2: S&P 500 VS. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS. Rising yields generally hurt growth stocks, as is evidenced in this chart. As yields were rising, the S&P 500 was moving lower.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Yields have reached levels they haven't seen since 2007, and let's hope the market doesn't perform the way it did in 2007. The circumstances are indeed different this time. We don't have the high levels of mortgage debt like we did then. There's a chance that interest rates may be close to a peak, although the Fed could still hike once more this year. So, that may mean yields could stay higher for longer. And it's the "higher for longer" regime that could be causing hesitancy among investors.

The bigger question is if stocks can perform well while interest rates are high. The dominant seasonality narrative of Q4 being strong could unfold. But if the large mega-cap stocks lead in Q4, could higher interest rates act as headwinds? If they are, it could make for relatively muted growth in Q4. But there's a chance that other asset classes could dominate. How will the last three months of 2023 shape up?

The Bottom Line

It all depends on what interest rates do. The market could go either way. It could turn around and go higher, or could fall even further before moving higher. Keep an eye on market breadth, because it can reveal what's brewing underneath the price bars.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

US equity indexes mixed; volatility up

  • $SPX down 0.27% at 4288.05, $INDU down 0.47% at 33507.50; $COMPQ up 0.14% at 13219.32
  • $VIX up 1.04% at 17.52
  • Best performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Utilities
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Super Micro Computer (SMCI); Dell Technologies (DELL); Palantir Technologies (PLTR); Splunk Inc. (SPLK); Jabil, Inc. (JBIL).

On the Radar Next Week

  • September ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • Fed speeches
  • ISM Services PMI
  • September non-farm payrolls

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Rational design of mRNA nanovaccine for cancer immunotherapy

Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines are revolutionizing the therapy of cancer. It can be flexibly developed in a short period of time, allowing transient expression…

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October 16, 2023

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Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines are revolutionizing the therapy of cancer. It can be flexibly developed in a short period of time, allowing transient expression of multiple antigens for safe and efficient immunization. A diversity of mRNA vaccines is being explored in clinic to benefit patients with cancer. However, the translation of mRNA vaccines is still hampered by multistage delivery barriers before initiating strong immunity, including rapid clearance, poor targeting to lymphoid organs and dendritic cells, catalytic hydrolysis and weak capability to pass through phospholipid bilayers. Besides, vaccination with mRNA alone can barely induce strong immune responses in the absence of adjuvants. It remains challenging to improve cytosolic delivery of mRNA and promote its in vivo vaccination efficacy in combination with adjuvants.

Credit: ©Science China Press

Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines are revolutionizing the therapy of cancer. It can be flexibly developed in a short period of time, allowing transient expression of multiple antigens for safe and efficient immunization. A diversity of mRNA vaccines is being explored in clinic to benefit patients with cancer. However, the translation of mRNA vaccines is still hampered by multistage delivery barriers before initiating strong immunity, including rapid clearance, poor targeting to lymphoid organs and dendritic cells, catalytic hydrolysis and weak capability to pass through phospholipid bilayers. Besides, vaccination with mRNA alone can barely induce strong immune responses in the absence of adjuvants. It remains challenging to improve cytosolic delivery of mRNA and promote its in vivo vaccination efficacy in combination with adjuvants.

In past decades, a huge number of nanocarriers have been reported to promote transfection efficacy of nucleic acid drugs or deliver drugs to lymph nodes. These studies provide valuable features including size, surface charge, modification, responsiveness, components and cytotoxicity to achieve the goal for lymph nodes drainage or cytosolic access. Machine learning techniques provide powerful tools for exploring the physicochemical characteristics and biological features of these nanoparticles, and facilitate the design of nanocarriers with high efficiency. Commonly, machine learning models were trained, selected and optimized with high quality and massive datasets from computations and high-throughput experimental data, and in turn guide the rational design, screening and optimization of nanocarriers. By leveraging existing nanocarriers’ databases, machine learning may provide insights into rational design of nanovaccines with high efficiency.

In a new research article published in the Beijing-based National Science Review, scientists from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Shanghai Jiao Tong University used machine learning to guide the rationalized design of mRNA nanovaccines. This study identified the key parameters of nanovaccines for efficient delivery of mRNA and cGAMP based on a machine learning model from the Nanocarrier Database (2010-2021, web of science). The mRNA/cGAMP nanocomplexes based on phenylboronic acid grafted polyethyleneimine were prepared and further encapsulated with anionic lipids to obtain the nanovaccine. (1) The negative surface charge of the nanovaccine reduces the interaction with negatively charged glycosaminoglycans in matrix and improves accumulation in the lymph nodes. (2) The nanovaccine, after being internalized by the antigen-presenting cells (APCs) in the lymph nodes, promotes the release of mRNA and cGAMP from the endosomes to the cytoplasm, which activates the STING pathway and induces the presentation of tumor antigens. (3) The activation of STING pathway promotes the release of IFN-I, which activates T cell immune response to kill tumor cells and inhibit tumor growth and metastasis. Compared with the mRNA alone, the therapeutic strategy based on this nanovaccine demonstrated stronger anti-tumor effects in melanoma and colorectal cancer models.

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See the article:

STING agonist-boosted mRNA immunization via intelligent design of nanovaccines for enhancing cancer immunotherapy

https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwad214

Journal

National Science Review

DOI

10.1093/nsr/nwad214

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Can ChatGPT diagnose your condition? Not yet

A research group led by Tokyo Medical and Dental University (TMDU) finds that when common orthopedic symptoms are given, ChatGPT’s diagnosis and recommendations…

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October 16, 2023

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A research group led by Tokyo Medical and Dental University (TMDU) finds that when common orthopedic symptoms are given, ChatGPT’s diagnosis and recommendations are inconsistent

Credit: Division of Medical Design Innovations, TMDU

A research group led by Tokyo Medical and Dental University (TMDU) finds that when common orthopedic symptoms are given, ChatGPT’s diagnosis and recommendations are inconsistent

Tokyo, Japan – ChatGPT, a sophisticated chatbot driven by artificial intelligence (AI) technology, has been increasingly used in health care contexts, one of which is assisting patients in self-diagnosing before seeking medical help. Although it seems very useful at first glance, AI may cause more harm than good to the patient if it is not accurate in its diagnosis and recommendations. A research team from Japan and the United States recently found that the precision of ChatGPT’s diagnoses and the degree to which it recommends medical consultation require further development.

In a study published in September, the multi-institutional research team led by Tokyo Medical and Dental University (TMDU) evaluated the accuracy (percentage of correct responses) and precision of ChatGPT’s response to five common orthopedic diseases (including carpal tunnel syndrome, cervical myelopathy, and hip osteoarthritis) because orthopedic complaints are very common in clinical practice and comprise up to 26% of the reasons why patients seek care. Over a 5-day course, each of the study researchers submitted the same questions to ChatGPT. The reproducibility between days and researchers was also calculated, and the strength of the recommendation that the patient seek medical attention was evaluated.

“We found that accuracy and reproducibility of ChatGPT’s diagnosis are not consistent over the five conditions. ChatGPT’s diagnosis was 100% accurate for carpal tunnel syndrome, but only 4% for cervical myelopathy,” says lead author Tomoyuki Kuroiwa. Additionally, reproducibility between days and researchers varied from “poor” to “almost perfect” among the five conditions even though researchers entered the same questions every time.

ChatGPT was also inconsistent in recommending medical consultation. Although almost 80% of ChatGPT’s answers recommended medical consultation, only 12.8% included a strong recommendation as set by the study standards. “Without direct language, it is possible that the patient is left confused after self-diagnosis, or worse, experience harm from a misdiagnosis,” says Kuroiwa.

This is the first study to evaluate the reproducibility and degree of the medical consultation recommendation of ChatGPT’s ability to self-diagnose. “In its current form, ChatGPT is inconsistent in both accuracy and precision to help patients diagnose their disease,” explains senior author Koji Fujita. “Given the risk of error and potential harm from misdiagnosis, it is important for any diagnostic tool to include clear language alerting patients to seek expert medical opinions for confirmation of a disease.”

The researchers also note some limitations of the study including the use of questions simulated by the research team and not patient-derived questions; focusing on only five orthopedic diseases; and using only ChatGPT. While it is still too early to use AI intelligence for self-diagnosis, the training of ChatGPT on diseases of interest could change this. Future studies can help shed light on the role of AI as a diagnostic tool.

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The article, “The potential of ChatGPT as a self-diagnostic tool in common orthopedic diseases: exploratory study,” was published in Journal of Medical Internet Research at DOI: 10.2196/47621

Journal

Journal of Medical Internet Research

DOI

10.2196/47621

Article Title

The Potential of ChatGPT as a Self-Diagnostic Tool in Common Orthopedic Diseases: Exploratory Study

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Ancient Egypt had far more venomous snakes than the country today, according to our new study of a scroll

Ancient texts are still teaching us new things about the prevalence of wildlife.

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58 mins ago

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October 16, 2023

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How much can the written records of ancient civilisations tell us about the animals they lived alongside? Our latest research, based on the venomous snakes described in an ancient Egyptian papyrus, suggests more than you might think. A much more diverse range of snakes than we’d imagined lived in the land of the pharaohs – which also explains why these Egyptian authors were so preoccupied with treating snakebites!

Like cave paintings, texts from early in recorded history often describe wild animals the writers knew. They can provide some remarkable details, but identifying the species involved can still be hard. For instance, the ancient Egyptian document called the Brooklyn Papyrus, dating back to around 660-330BC but likely a copy of a much older document, lists different kinds of snake known at the time, the effects of their bites, and their treatment.

As well as the symptoms of the bite, the papyrus also describes the deity associated with the snake, or whose intervention might save the patient. The bite of the “great snake of Apophis” (a god who took the form of a snake), for example, was described as causing rapid death. Readers were also warned that this snake had not the usual two fangs but four, still a rare feature for a snake today.

The venomous snakes described in the Brooklyn Papyrus are diverse: 37 species are listed, of which the descriptions for 13 have been lost. Today, the area of ancient Egypt is home to far fewer species. This has led to much speculation among researchers as to which species are being described.

The four-fanged snake

For the great snake of Apophis, no reasonable contender currently lives within ancient Egypt’s borders. Like most of the venomous snakes that cause the majority of the world’s snakebite deaths, the vipers and cobras now found in Egypt have just two fangs, one in each upper jaw bone. In snakes, the jaw bones on the two sides are separated and move independently, unlike in mammals.

The nearest modern snake that often has four fangs is the boomslang (Disopholidus typus) from the sub-Saharan African savannas, now only found more than 400 miles (650km) south of present-day Egypt. Its venom can make the victim bleed from every orifice and cause a lethal brain haemorrhage. Could the snake of Apophis be an early, detailed description of a boomslang? And if so, how did the ancient Egyptians encounter a snake that now lives so far south of their borders?

Representation of Apep (Apophis) in Ancient Egyptian wall painting. Note resemblance to boomslang (above).

To find out, our masters student Elysha McBride used a statistical model called climate niche modelling to explore how the ranges of various African and Levantine (eastern Mediterranean) snakes have changed through time.

Niche modelling reconstructs the conditions in which a species lives, and identifies parts of the planet that offer similar conditions. Once the model has been taught to recognise places that are suitable today, we can add in maps of past climate conditions. It then produces a map showing all the places where that species might have been able to live in the past.

On the trail of ancient snakes

Our study shows the much more humid climates of early ancient Egypt would have supported many snakes that don’t live there today. We focused on ten species from the African tropics, the Maghreb region of north Africa and the Middle East that might match the papyrus’s descriptions. These include some of Africa’s most notorious venomous snakes such as the black mamba, puff adder and boomslang.

We found that nine of our ten species could probably once have lived in ancient Egypt. Many could have occupied the southern and southeastern parts of the country as it then was - modern northern Sudan and the Red Sea coast. Others might have lived in the fertile, vegetated Nile valley or along the northern coast. For instance, boomslangs might have lived along the Red Sea coast in places that 4,000 years ago would have been part of Egypt.

Similarly, one entry of the Brooklyn Papyrus describes a snake “patterned like a quail” that “hisses like a goldsmith’s bellows”. The puff adder (Bitis arietans) would fit this description, but currently lives only south of Khartoum in Sudan and in northern Eritrea. Again, our models suggest that this species’ range would once have extended much further north.

Read more: Wildlife wonders of Britain and Ireland before the industrial revolution – my research reveals all the biodiversity we've lost

Since the period we modelled, a lot has changed. Drying of the climate and desertification had set in about 4,200 years ago, but perhaps not uniformly. In the Nile valley and along the coast, for instance, farming and irrigation might have slowed the drying and allowed many species to persist into historical times. This implies that many more venomous snakes we only know from elsewhere might have been in Egypt at the time of the pharaohs.

Our study shows how enlightening it can be when we combine ancient texts with modern technology. Even a fanciful or imprecise ancient description can be highly informative. Modelling modern species’ ancient ranges can teach us a lot about how our ancestors’ ecosystems changed as a result of environmental change. We can use this information to understand the impact of their interactions with the wildlife around them.

Wolfgang Wüster receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust.

Isabelle Catherine Winder does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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