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Spray Tanning Machines Market to grow by USD 1.80 Bn by 2026, Segmented by Application and Geography – Technavio

Spray Tanning Machines Market to grow by USD 1.80 Bn by 2026, Segmented by Application and Geography – Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Nov. 7, 2022

NEW YORK, Nov. 7, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — The spray tanning machines market is expected to grow by USD1…

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Spray Tanning Machines Market to grow by USD 1.80 Bn by 2026, Segmented by Application and Geography - Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Nov. 7, 2022

NEW YORK, Nov. 7, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The spray tanning machines market is expected to grow by USD1.80 billion at a CAGR of 6.6% during the forecast period of 2021-2026. 32% of the growth originates from APAC. Technavio report is compiled on research from a mix of primary interviews and secondary research, along with analytical tools used to build the forecast and predictive models. Request Free Sample Report.

Spray Tanning Machines Market - Vendor Analysis

The global spray tanning machines market is fragmented due to the presence of multiple established players. The key players compete on factors such as price, quality, brand, and variety. Several companies are adopting different marketing strategies to increase their market share. The acquisition of new brands and several partnerships will provide an opportunity for the leading competitors to maintain their dominance in the market in focus during the forecast period. Many global players are expected to expand their presence worldwide during the forecast period. Competition among key players will lead to the introduction of many innovative ways of producing spray tanning machines, fueling further growth of the market in focus during the forecast.

Spray Tanning Machines Market Vendor Offerings

  • Aviva Labs Inc: The company offers spray tanning machines such as oil-based, aloe vera-based, and fragrance-based solutions.
  • Brand Architects Group PLC: The company offers spray tanning machines such as tan handy portable spray tan guns.
  • GloBody Inc: The company offers spray tanning machines such as winterglo and natural glow.
  • Kahuna Bay Spray Tan LLC: The company offers spray tanning machines such as artesian blend airbrush spray tanning solution 1 gal 128oz and artesian blend dark spray tanning solution quart 34oz.
  • NUDA: The company offers spray tanning machines such as solo tan machines with tan7350 and studio tan machines with tan7350.

Find additional highlights on the growth strategies adopted by vendors and their product offerings, Download Free Sample Report.

Spray Tanning Machines Market- Segmentation Analysis

  • By Application
    • Home use 
      • During the anticipated period, the market share rise of spray tanning devices for home use will be high. The spray tanning machine market for homes was the most significant and fastest-growing application sector in 2021. The home use segment is growing rapidly due to the expensive cost of spray tanning in salons and the use of chemicals such as docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), which requires close care when applied to body regions. Therefore, the market in focus is expected to grow during the forecast period.
    • Professional use
  • By Geography
    • APAC
      • APAC will account for 32% of market growth. China and India are the two most important markets in APAC for spray tanning devices. The market in this region will expand more quickly than the market in other regions. The growing number of salons and spas, as well as rising customer concerns about skin tones, will aid the expansion of the spray tanning machines market in APAC throughout the forecast period.
    • North America
    • Europe
    • Middle East and Africa
    • South America

To know additional highlights and key points on various market segments and their impact in coming years, Get Free Sample Report.

Imperative Insights on the following aspects:

  • What was the size of the global spray tanning machines industry by value?
  • What will be the size of the global spray tanning machines industry in 2026?
  • What factors are affecting the strength of competition in the global spray tanning machines industry?
  • How has the industry performed over the last five years?
  • What are the main segments that make up the global spray tanning machines market?

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Spray Tanning Machines Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

120

Base year

2021

Forecast period

2022-2026

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 6.6%

Market growth 2022-2026

$1.80 billion

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth (%)

6.2

Regional analysis

North America, Europe, APAC, Middle East and Africa, and South America

Performing market contribution

APAC at 32%

Key consumer countries

US, Canada, China, India, Germany, and Italy

Competitive landscape

Leading companies, competitive strategies, consumer engagement scope

Companies profiled

Apollo Sprayers International Inc, Aviva Labs Inc, Brand Architekts Group PLC, Fake Bake LLC, Fuji Industrial Spray Equipment Ltd., GloBody Inc, Kahuna Bay Spray Tan LLC, Maximist, Million Dollar Tan, MineTan, NUDA, Oztan Cosmetics, ProSun International LLC, PZ Cussons Plc, Sjolie Inc, Spray Tan Cubicle Company Ltd, Sun Laboratories, SunFX, Sunless Inc, and Tampa Bay Tan

Market Dynamics

Parent market analysis, Market growth inducers and obstacles, Fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and future consumer dynamics, and market condition analysis for the forecast period.

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Table of Content:

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market overview
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Application
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem
    • Exhibit 09: Parent market
    • Exhibit 10: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market definition
    • Exhibit 11: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 12: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2021
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 13: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 14: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 15: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 16: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)

4 Five Forces Analysis

  • 4.1 Five forces summary
    • Exhibit 17: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2021 and 2026
  • 4.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 18: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2021 and 2026
  • 4.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 19: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
  • 4.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 20: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
  • 4.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 21: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
  • 4.6 Threat of rivalry
    • Exhibit 22: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2021 and 2026
  • 4.7 Market condition
    • Exhibit 23: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2021 and 2026

5 Market Segmentation by Application

  • 5.1 Market segments
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Application - Market share 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 25: Data Table on Application - Market share 2021-2026 (%)
  • 5.2 Comparison by Application 
    • Exhibit 26: Chart on Comparison by Application
    • Exhibit 27: Data Table on Comparison by Application
  • 5.3 Home use - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 28: Chart on Home use - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 29: Data Table on Home use - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 30: Chart on Home use - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 31: Data Table on Home use - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 5.4 Professional use - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 32: Chart on Professional use - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 33: Data Table on Professional use - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 34: Chart on Professional use - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 35: Data Table on Professional use - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 5.5 Market opportunity by Application 
    • Exhibit 36: Market opportunity by Application ($ million)

6 Customer Landscape

  • 6.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 37: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

7 Geographic Landscape

  • 7.1 Geographic segmentation 
    • Exhibit 38: Chart on Market share by geography 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 39: Data Table on Market share by geography 2021-2026 (%)
  • 7.2 Geographic comparison 
    • Exhibit 40: Chart on Geographic comparison
    • Exhibit 41: Data Table on Geographic comparison
  • 7.3 North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 42: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 43: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 44: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 45: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 7.4 Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 46: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 47: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 48: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 49: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 7.5 APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 50: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 51: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 52: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 53: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 7.6 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 54: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 55: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 56: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 57: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 7.7 South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 58: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 59: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 60: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 61: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 7.8 US - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 62: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 63: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 64: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 65: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 7.9 China - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 66: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 67: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 68: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 69: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 7.10 Germany - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 70: Chart on Germany - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 71: Data Table on Germany - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 72: Chart on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 73: Data Table on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 7.11 Italy - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 74: Chart on Italy - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 75: Data Table on Italy - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 76: Chart on Italy - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 77: Data Table on Italy - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 7.12 Canada - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 78: Chart on Canada - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 79: Data Table on Canada - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 80: Chart on Canada - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 81: Data Table on Canada - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 7.13 India - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 
    • Exhibit 82: Chart on India - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 83: Data Table on India - Market size and forecast 2021-2026 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 84: Chart on India - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
    • Exhibit 85: Data Table on India - Year-over-year growth 2021-2026 (%)
  • 7.14 Market opportunity by geography 
    • Exhibit 86: Market opportunity by geography ($ million)

8 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 8.1 Market drivers
  • 8.2 Market challenges
  • 8.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 87: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2021 and 2026
  • 8.4 Market trends

9 Vendor Landscape

  • 9.1 Overview
  • 9.2 Vendor landscape
    • Exhibit 88: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 9.3 Landscape disruption
    • Exhibit 89: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 9.4 Industry risks
    • Exhibit 90: Impact of key risks on business

10 Vendor Analysis

  • 10.1 Vendors covered
    • Exhibit 91: Vendors covered
  • 10.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 92: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 10.3 Aviva Labs Inc
    • Exhibit 93: Aviva Labs Inc - Overview
    • Exhibit 94: Aviva Labs Inc - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 95: Aviva Labs Inc - Key offerings
  • 10.4 Brand Architekts Group PLC 
    • Exhibit 96: Brand Architekts Group PLC - Overview
    • Exhibit 97: Brand Architekts Group PLC - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 98: Brand Architekts Group PLC - Key offerings
  • 10.5 GloBody Inc
    • Exhibit 99: GloBody Inc - Overview
    • Exhibit 100: GloBody Inc - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 101: GloBody Inc - Key offerings
  • 10.6 Kahuna Bay Spray Tan LLC 
    • Exhibit 102: Kahuna Bay Spray Tan LLC - Overview
    • Exhibit 103: Kahuna Bay Spray Tan LLC - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 104: Kahuna Bay Spray Tan LLC - Key offerings
  • 10.7 NUDA
    • Exhibit 105: NUDA - Overview
    • Exhibit 106: NUDA - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 107: NUDA - Key offerings
  • 10.8 PZ Cussons Plc
    • Exhibit 108: PZ Cussons Plc - Overview
    • Exhibit 109: PZ Cussons Plc - Business segments
    • Exhibit 110: PZ Cussons Plc - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 111: PZ Cussons Plc - Segment focus
  • 10.9 Spray Tan Cubicle Company Ltd 
    • Exhibit 112: Spray Tan Cubicle Company Ltd - Overview
    • Exhibit 113: Spray Tan Cubicle Company Ltd - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 114: Spray Tan Cubicle Company Ltd - Key offerings
  • 10.10 Sun Laboratories
    • Exhibit 115: Sun Laboratories - Overview
    • Exhibit 116: Sun Laboratories - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 117: Sun Laboratories - Key offerings
  • 10.11 SunFX
    • Exhibit 118: SunFX - Overview
    • Exhibit 119: SunFX - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 120: SunFX - Key offerings
  • 10.12 Tampa Bay Tan
    • Exhibit 121: Tampa Bay Tan - Overview
    • Exhibit 122: Tampa Bay Tan - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 123: Tampa Bay Tan - Key offerings

11 Appendix

  • 11.1 Scope of the report
  • 11.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 124: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 125: Exclusions checklist
  • 11.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 126: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 11.4 Research methodology
    • Exhibit 127: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 128: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 129: Information sources
  • 11.5 List of abbreviations 
    • Exhibit 130: List of abbreviations
  • in manufacturing industry: Market dynamics in some major processes and discrete industries are changing drastically, and manufacturers are gradually feeling the brunt of excessive demand fluctuations. The fluctuating prices of oil and gas and metals in the global market and the shortage of a skilled workforce worldwide have directly affected the profitability of manufacturing companies. A sudden and unexpected shift in market dynamics can drastically impact manufacturing processes and investments in capital goods.
  • slowdown in the automotive industry: High motorization rates in North America and Europe, the increase in tariffs on imported vehicles in the US and China, and the global economic slowdown are likely to reduce vehicle sales in the coming years. Anticipating a decline in vehicle sales, several vehicle manufacturers are halting their vehicle production. For instance, in March 2019, Ford announced the shutdown of its three vehicle-manufacturing sites in Russia. Similarly, in August 2019, Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd. stopped vehicle production at its manufacturing units in India for 8-14 days. During the same month, Maruti Suzuki announced that it had cut its vehicle production for the sixth consecutive month in 2019. In August 2019, Honda announced a halt in car production at its Argentina-based manufacturing plants. Such a slowdown in the automotive industry is expected to hamper the growth of the market during the forecast period.
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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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1 day ago

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March 9, 2024

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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2 days ago

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March 8, 2024

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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2 days ago

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March 8, 2024

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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