S&P 500 Risk Profile: 14 June 2022
A common definition of a bear market is a 20% stock market decline. By that standard, the S&P 500 crossed that Rubicon yesterday (June 13) for the…

A common definition of a bear market is a 20% stock market decline. By that standard, the S&P 500 crossed that Rubicon yesterday (June 13) for the first time since the pandemic crash in March 2020 as the market’s drawdown reached nearly -22%.
Whatever you call, the market trend of late is clearly negative. But that’s old news. The S&P 500’s directional bias has been clearly pointing down for several months and so anyone who’s surprised by the recent tumble hasn’t been paying attention.
How close is the market to a bottom? That’s the critical question, as it always is when the market slides. But the standard answer still applies: no one knows in real time, although we can use some analytics to guesstimate how near we are to a bottom.
One way to estimate an answer is by monitoring an aggregate of several proxies via CapitalSpectator.com’s S&P 500 Sentiment Momentum Index (for details, see this summary). The index (cited in Z-scores) is currently posting its lowest reading since the pandemic initially triggered a sharp correction in the spring of 2020, leaving the index at roughly -2 standard deviations, twice as deep since our April update. It’s clear that the market is closer to a bottom. Whether this is the actual bottom, alas, can only be determined with hindsight. Keep in mind that the sentiment data below shows that while -2 is a relatively low mark, the S&P has managed to go deeper and so the potential for more selling can’t be dismissed. That said, it appears that the bulk of the downside is behind us. On the other hand, conservative investors may want to wait until we see some upside trending behavior to call a bottom. By that standard, it’s still too early to go fishing.

For another perspective on how the market correction stacks up vis-à-vis history, consider the drawdown chart below. The current peak-to-trough decline for the S&P 500 fell to nearly -22% yesterday. The slide is no longer a garden-variety correction, although we’re still well above the steepest drawdowns reached in the past 60-plus years. In other words, there’s still precedent for further deterioration.

Using a Hidden Markov model (HMM) clearly shows that the S&P 500 has entered bear-market terrain. This indicator has been hinting at no less recently, inching above the 50% probability mark (just barely) in early May, jumping to 59% by the end of last month, and then surging to 83% at yesterday’s close. (For some background on how the analytics are calculated in the chart below, see this primer.)

Applying another econometric model to estimate so-called bubble risk shows that this indicator started rebounding in April, effectively warning of a resumption in elevated crash risk. The indicated then jumped to a clear high alert last month, and remains so as of yesterday’s close. (See this 2014 post for some background on the methodology).

Unsurprisingly, the recent market decline has taken some of the froth off of valuation, although the S&P is still well above levels that can be considered reasonably valued, based on the CAPE ratio.

Finally, the ratio for a pair US equity ETFs continues to suggest that the recent return of risk-off sentiment for stocks continues. Comparing the relative performance of the S&P SPDR (SPY) to iShares MSCI Minimum Volatility (USMV) indicates that market sentiment remains defensive (ratio is falling). When this ratio begins to stabilize and turn higher that shift will provide a possible early sign that the tide is starting to turn in favor of the bulls again. For the moment, however, such a change is nowhere on the immediate horizon.

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Highlights of My Weekly Reading and Viewing
Timothy Taylor, “Some Economics of Pharmacy Benefit Managers,” The Conversable Economist, September 28, 2023. This is the nicest treatment of the facts…

Timothy Taylor, “Some Economics of Pharmacy Benefit Managers,” The Conversable Economist, September 28, 2023. This is the nicest treatment of the facts that I’ve seen. I confess that I’ve seen PBMs as something of a black box rather than doing the standard middleman treatment that Tim does.
Tim highlights the work of Matthew Fiedler, Loren Adler, and Richard G. Frank in “A Brief Look at Key Debates About Pharmacy Benefit Manufacturers,” Brookings Institution, September 7, 2023.
Ending paragraph:
As in most economic discussions about the role of middlemen, it’s important to remember that they (usually) don’t just sit around with their hands out, collecting money. Some entity needs to negotiate on behalf of health insurance companies with drug manufacturers and pharmacies. Some entity needs to process insurance claims for drug prices. I do not mean to defend the relatively high drug prices paid by American consumers compared to international markets, nor to defend the costs and requirements for developing new drugs, nor to defend some of the mechanisms used by drug companies to keep prices high. But while it might be possible to squeeze some money out of PBMs for slightly lower drug prices, and it’s certainly possible to mess up PBMs in a way that leads to higher drug prices, it doesn’t seem plausible that reform of PBMs is going to be a powerful lever for reducing drug prices.
Thomas W. Hazlett, “Maybe Google Is Popular Because It’s Good,” Reason, September 27, 2023. I think Hazlett is the best writer in economics. This piece is a good sample.
An excerpt:
The innovation was simple in design, complex in execution, and radical in result. The business achieved a rare triple play: First, a robust new web crawler devised a superior method for finding and tagging the world’s digital content, deploying cheap PCs linked in formations to achieve momentous computing power (Brin’s genius). Second, this more prolific database of global digital content was better cataloged. A clever “Page Rank” score evaluated keyword matches, countering the influence of scammers by scrutinizing the quality of their web page links (Page’s inspiration). Third, “intention-based advertising” displayed commercial messages to searchers self-identified as ready to buy. For instance, the internet user wondering about “coho salmon, Ketchikan, kids” gave Hank’s Family Fishing B&B in Alaska a digital target for its 10 percent off coupon, while signaling to Olay not to bother advertising its skin care products. This solved the famous marketing dilemma: “I know I’m wasting half my ad budget, I just don’t know which half.” Businesses loved these tiny slices of digital real estate, and Google mined gold.
Fiona Harrigan, “America’s Immigrant Brain Drain,” Reason, October 2023.
Excerpt:
In June, The Hechinger Report outlined how foreign governments are welcoming U.S.-trained international students. The United Kingdom offers a “high potential individual” visa, which authorizes a two-year stay and is available to “new graduates of 40 universities….21 of them in the United States.” Recruiters from Australia are “attending job fairs and visiting university campuses” in the United States. From 2017 to 2021, according to the Niskanen Center, a Washington-based think tank, Canada managed to attract almost 40,000 foreign-born graduates of American universities.
Most international students want to stay in the U.S. after graduating, but very few are able to do so. The U.S. does not have a dedicated postgraduate work visa. Canada and Australia, meanwhile, have streamlined the steps from graduation to employment to permanent residency. Graduates in the U.S. can complete Optional Practical Training, but it does not lead to permanent residency and lasts a maximum of three years.
Personal note: Actually the maximum of 3 years for Practical Training sounds good. When I took advantage of the F-1 Practical Training visa to be on the faculty of the University of Rochester, the max was only 18 months.
David Friedman, “Consequences of Climate Change,” September 24, 2023. David does his typical calm, clear, masterful job of laying out the facts. He takes the IPCC reports as given and then follows the implications, uncovering a lot of misleading claims in the process. While David takes as given that the earth will heat about another degree centigrade by about the end of the century, he lays out why we can’t be sure that the net effects are negative or positive. Watch about the first 35 minutes of his speech, before he gets to Q&A. I would point out highlights but there is zinger after zinger. And he references his blog and his substack where you can get details.
The pic above is of David Friedman giving his talk.
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Russia’s Military Budget Set To Rise By 70%
Russia’s Military Budget Set To Rise By 70%
Via Remix News,
Russian military spending is set to rise by almost 70 percent — to €106…

Russian military spending is set to rise by almost 70 percent — to €106 billion — by 2024, according to a Russian Finance Ministry document published Thursday, an increase that illustrates Moscow’s determination to continue its military intervention in Ukraine despite the human and economic costs.
According to the document, Russian defense spending will increase by 68 percent in 2024 compared to this year and will reach 10.8 trillion rubles (€106 billion).
As a result, the amount allocated to defense will represent about 30 percent of total federal spending in 2024 and 6 percent of GDP — a first in Russia’s modern history.
The budget for internal security is set to rise to 3.4 trillion rubles (€33 billion), almost 10 percent of annual federal spending.
The priorities for this budget are outlined as “strengthening the country’s defense capacity” and “integrating the new regions” of Ukraine whose annexation Moscow has demanded, as well as “social aid for the most vulnerable citizens,” just months ahead of the Russian presidential elections in spring 2024.
Conversely, total spending on education, healthcare and environmental protection accounts for barely a third of the defense budget, according to ministry figures. Overall, federal spending will total 36.7 trillion rubles (€359 billion), a dramatic 20 percent increase over 2023.
The government, however, has explained little about how it will finance this large increase, as Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Musustin said last Friday that revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons will be down sharply and will account for “a third of next year’s budget” in 2024, whereas before the invasion of Ukraine, they accounted for half the budget.
The sector used to drive Russia’s growth, hydrocarbon sales are declining due to international sanctions and the European Union’s determination to move away from energy dependence on Moscow.
One indication that the government expects a delicate month ahead for the Russian economy is that it has announced that it has based its budget forecast on the assumption of a dollar worth around 90 rubles, thus betting on a weakening of the national currency in the medium term. The draft budget law for 2024-2026 is due to be sent to the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, on Friday.
International
Atlantic Overfishing: Europe’s Worst Offenders
Atlantic Overfishing: Europe’s Worst Offenders
Each year, agriculture and fisheries ministers decide on total allowable catches (TACs) for…

Each year, agriculture and fisheries ministers decide on total allowable catches (TACs) for commercial fishing.
Scientific bodies, such as the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), provide information on the state of fish stocks around the world and recommend maximum catch levels per zone to ensure sustainable fishing.
However, this scientific advice is all too often ignored by the authorities, jeopardizing the sustainability of marine resources.
Statista's Martin Armstrong shows in the following infographic, based on the latest report from the New Economics Foundation, these European countries are the worst offenders for this, having on numerous occasions set their fishing quotas in the North-East Atlantic in excess of the sustainability recommendations in recent years.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Sweden exceeded its recommended TAC by almost 33 percent in 2020 (the latest year available), equivalent to 12,000 tonnes of fish, followed by Denmark (6 percent, 20,000 tonnes) and France (6 percent, 17,000 tonnes).
Ireland, Belgium, Spain and the UK all exceeded their targets by between 2 and 4 percent.
The year before, in 2019, the overshoot of the sustainable fishing threshold in the zone was even more pronounced: 7 percent of the recommended TAC for Spain, 9 percent for France, 10 percent for Belgium, 18 percent for Germany, 20 percent or more for Denmark, the United Kingdom and Ireland, and 52% for Sweden.
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