Seasonal cooling, cost strains bring housing market closer to 'normal'
PR Newswire
SEATTLE, Jan. 19, 2023
Lower mortgage rates bring monthly costs down, but the housing market is still reeling from affordability problems
The share of homes sold above list price fell to 28%, the lowest rate since June 2020.
Monthly mortgage costs have fallen more than $100 from peak as rates have relaxed, but are still nearly double what they were in 2019.
It takes about 30 days to sell a home, compared to six in April 2022 and 43 in 2019.
SEATTLE, Jan. 19, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The housing market continued its return back to earth in December as affordability challenges kept demand in check, the latest Zillow® data shows. Falling mortgage rates lowered costs slightly, and a number of key indicators inched closer to seasonal norms during what is typically the slowest time of year.
Buyers should appreciate that list prices are once again roughly indicative of the sale price and even slightly aspirational on the part of sellers. Just over a quarter (28%) of homes nationwide sold above their first list price in November (the most recent data).
That's the lowest portion since June 2020, when the housing market was just getting over the initial shock of COVID-19 and starting to heat up, but it's still higher than the 21% sold above list price in November 2019. Metros with the highest share of homes selling above list price are relatively affordable: Buffalo (63%), Hartford (57%) and Milwaukee (48%).
"The housing market ended 2022 in a deep freeze, but there are some green shoots pushing up," said Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow. "The recent thaw in mortgage rates has begun to attract some renewed interest from buyers, and home sales are climbing again compared to last year. If rates continue to march down this spring and sellers return in seasonal force, the housing market just might get to have a normal — maybe even boring — year."
Typical time on market — how long a listing waits before going pending — is now up to 30 days. It's a far less frenzied environment than last December's 13 days till pending and the low of just six days that was seen in the past two springs, but still considerably faster than the 43 days to pending before the pandemic, in December 2019.
Homes in Western metros that were white hot in 2021 are now taking the longest to sell: 68 days in Austin, 57 days in Las Vegas and 55 days in Phoenix. Meanwhile, the fastest-moving markets are more affordable; Hartford, Cincinnati, Kansas City and Columbus all saw median listings go pending in two weeks or less.
Monthly mortgage costs are now just under $1,800 for a typically valued home after a 20% down payment, a decline of more than $100 from the peak in October. But payments are still 62% higher than last December and are $875 higher than in December 2019. These affordability challenges are dragging demand down from the lofty heights seen earlier in the pandemic. Sales in November measured by Zillow's nowcast were down 33% year over year and 16% compared to 2019.
Total inventory is declining roughly in line with pre-pandemic seasonal norms and is gaining ground over last year, rising from a 26% annual deficit in January 2022 to now standing at 16% above the previous year.
But the recovery of inventory is being driven by falling sales, not the addition of new listings. Still high yet falling mortgage rates may be convincing current homeowners to hold on to their property until the spring selling season. December is usually the slowest time of year for sellers to list, but new additions in December were significantly lower than in 2019, and new for-sale listing levels have lost ground to the previous year for eight consecutive months.
Typical rents nationwide slid for three straight months to close out 2022, but at $1,981, they are still up 7.4% year over year.
Zillow will roll out a new Zillow Home Value Index, based on the more accurate neural Zestimate® model, in next month's report.
Metropolitan Area*
December Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) (Raw)
Monthly Mortgage Cost (at 20% Down)
Monthly Mortgage Cost Change, Year over Year (YoY)
Monthly Mortgage Cost Change, Month over Month
Total Inventory Change, YoY
Median Days on Market Change, YoY
Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI)
United States
$356,819
$1,795
62.5 %
-0.7 %
15.9 %
17
$1,981
New York, NY
$619,155
$3,105
58.4 %
-0.5 %
-8.7 %
4
$3,062
Los Angeles, CA
$893,468
$4,512
52.4 %
-1.0 %
22.9 %
21
$2,917
Chicago, IL
$307,549
$1,552
57.8 %
-0.8 %
-12.5 %
12
$1,839
Dallas–Fort Worth, TX
$382,179
$1,944
66.9 %
-1.1 %
11.9 %
13
$1,802
Philadelphia, PA
$344,532
$1,724
60.9 %
-0.1 %
-5.3 %
7
$1,777
Houston, TX
$311,338
$1,573
64.4 %
-0.8 %
23.0 %
22
$1,654
Washington, DC
$551,067
$2,770
55.0 %
-0.5 %
-0.4 %
17
$2,198
Miami–Fort Lauderdale, FL
$476,860
$2,391
79.9 %
-0.4 %
22.7 %
17
$2,771
Atlanta, GA
$380,619
$1,916
65.6 %
-0.8 %
21.3 %
26
$1,953
Boston, MA
$642,106
$3,230
56.2 %
-0.9 %
8.3 %
10
$2,874
San Francisco, CA
$1,348,952
$6,832
47.2 %
-1.5 %
19.6 %
25
$3,100
Detroit, MI
$238,838
$1,198
57.0 %
-0.5 %
13.8 %
13
$1,421
Riverside, CA
$570,580
$2,888
58.1 %
-1.0 %
39.7 %
29
$2,514
Phoenix, AZ
$437,703
$2,225
53.1 %
-1.5 %
40.4 %
40
$1,882
Seattle, WA
$725,882
$3,761
54.4 %
-2.1 %
75.5 %
35
$2,166
Minneapolis– St. Paul, MN
$370,054
$1,862
53.8 %
-0.7 %
5.9 %
18
$1,614
San Diego, CA
$865,499
$4,392
55.5 %
-1.4 %
32.9 %
23
$2,991
St. Louis, MO
$245,958
$1,236
60.2 %
-0.4 %
2.4 %
9
$1,291
Tampa, FL
$387,110
$1,951
75.4 %
-0.8 %
57.0 %
24
$2,093
Baltimore, MD
$378,283
$1,903
57.2 %
-0.5 %
-6.5 %
10
$1,764
Denver, CO
$614,979
$3,107
56.2 %
-1.1 %
61.0 %
31
$1,970
Pittsburgh, PA
$209,325
$1,050
51.5 %
-0.5 %
3.0 %
9
$1,328
Portland, OR
$556,622
$2,816
53.3 %
-1.1 %
29.0 %
32
$1,875
Charlotte, NC
$384,179
$1,936
69.0 %
-0.8 %
5.3 %
20
$1,781
Sacramento, CA
$582,243
$2,950
51.4 %
-1.3 %
33.2 %
25
$2,264
San Antonio, TX
$336,791
$1,703
63.6 %
-1.0 %
47.8 %
29
$1,481
Orlando, FL
$398,331
$2,008
74.4 %
-0.8 %
37.8 %
23
$1,996
Cincinnati, OH
$267,706
$1,338
62.0 %
-0.2 %
-7.8 %
5
$1,516
Cleveland, OH
$219,740
$1,101
60.8 %
-0.4 %
0.2 %
9
$1,331
Kansas City, MO
$293,088
$1,469
61.9 %
-0.1 %
10.0 %
9
$1,356
Las Vegas, NV
$418,083
$2,101
57.2 %
-1.6 %
59.0 %
47
$1,800
Columbus, OH
$304,421
$1,522
62.4 %
-0.6 %
14.1 %
9
$1,409
Indianapolis, IN
$273,939
$1,378
65.0 %
-0.6 %
26.6 %
15
$1,443
San Jose, CA
$1,521,049
$7,724
50.9 %
-2.0 %
-11.0 %
6
$3,216
Austin, TX
$531,197
$2,700
47.2 %
-1.9 %
53.7 %
46
$1,869
Virginia Beach, VA
$336,585
$1,687
61.2 %
-0.4 %
-9.4 %
7
$1,629
Nashville, TN
$446,141
$2,254
68.4 %
-1.2 %
69.0 %
33
$1,856
Providence, RI
$446,479
$2,250
58.1 %
-0.8 %
-6.9 %
8
$1,899
Milwaukee, WI
$275,271
$1,371
60.0 %
0.2 %
-34.4 %
0
$1,194
Jacksonville, FL
$374,244
$1,884
72.7 %
-0.9 %
56.9 %
34
$1,757
Memphis, TN
$237,529
$1,192
65.0 %
-0.5 %
15.7 %
17
$1,481
Oklahoma City, OK
$226,242
$1,132
65.4 %
-0.1 %
22.5 %
14
$1,306
Louisville, KY
$245,203
$1,231
59.9 %
-0.4 %
0.6 %
10
$1,281
Hartford, CT
$326,038
$1,628
62.1 %
0.1 %
-20.4 %
3
$1,667
Richmond, VA
$347,267
$1,739
62.7 %
-0.4 %
7.9 %
9
$1,548
New Orleans, LA
$266,726
$1,343
56.1 %
-0.8 %
52.1 %
28
$1,525
Buffalo, NY
$247,238
$1,234
59.7 %
-0.1 %
4.9 %
8
$1,218
Raleigh, NC
$433,424
$2,205
62.7 %
-1.9 %
46.0 %
$1,744
Birmingham, AL
$252,018
$1,259
62.1 %
-0.3 %
29.0 %
18
$1,293
Salt Lake City, UT
$569,969
$2,901
53.5 %
-1.5 %
90.8 %
34
$1,751
*Table ordered by market size
About Zillow Group Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make it easier to unlock life's next chapter. As the most visited real estate website in the United States, Zillow® and its affiliates offer customers an on-demand experience for selling, buying, renting, or financing with transparency and ease.
Zillow Group's affiliates and subsidiaries include Zillow®; Zillow Premier Agent®; Zillow Home Loans™; Zillow Closing Services™; Trulia®; Out East®; StreetEasy®; HotPads®; and ShowingTime+™, which houses ShowingTime®, Bridge Interactive®, and dotloop®. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).
Meet the Bitcoinetas, a fleet of transformative vehicles on a mission to spread the bitcoin message everywhere they go. From Argentina to South Africa,…
You may have seen that picture of Michael Saylor in a bitcoin-branded van, with a cheerful guy right next to the car door. This one:
That car is the Bitcoineta European Edition, and the cheerful guy is Ariel Aguilar. Ariel is part of the European Bitcoineta team, and has previously driven another similar car in Argentina. In fact, there are currently five cars around the world that carry the name Bitcoineta (in some cases preceded with the Spanish definite article “La”).
Argentina: the original La Bitcoineta
The story of Bitcoinetas begins with the birth of 'La Bitcoineta' in Argentina, back in 2017. Inspired by the vibrancy of the South American Bitcoin community, the original Bitcoineta was conceived after an annual Latin American Conference (Labitconf), where the visionaries behind it recognized a unique opportunity to promote Bitcoin education in remote areas. Armed with a bright orange Bitcoin-themed exterior and a mission to bridge the gap in financial literacy, La Bitcoineta embarked on a journey to bring awareness of Bitcoin's potential benefits to villages and towns that often remained untouched by mainstream financial education initiatives. Operated by a team of dedicated volunteers, it was more than just a car; it was a symbol of hope and empowerment for those living on the fringes of financial inclusion.
Ariel was part of that initial Argentinian Bitcoineta team, and spent weeks on the road when the car became a reality. The original dream to bring bitcoin education even to remote areas within Argentina and other South American countries came true, and the La Bitcoineta team took part in dozens of local bitcoin meetups in the subsequent years.
One major hiccup came in late 2018, when the car was crashed into while parked in Puerto Madryn. The car was pretty much destroyed, but since the team was possessed by a honey badger spirit, nothing could stop them from keeping true to their mission. It is a testament to the determination and resilience of the Argentinian team that the car was quickly restored and returned on its orange-pilling quest soon after.
Over the more than 5 years that the Argentinian Bitcoineta has been running, it has traveled more than 80,000 kilometers - and as we’ll see further, it inspired multiple similar initiatives around the world.
In early 2021, the president of El Salvador passed the Bitcoin Law, making bitcoin legal tender in the country. The Labitconf team decided to celebrate this major step forward in bitcoin adoption by hosting the annual conference in San Salvador, the capital city of El Salvador. And correspondingly, the Argentinian Bitcoineta team made plans for a bold 7000-kilometer road trip to visit the Bitcoin country with the iconic Bitcoin car.
However, it proved to be impossible to cross so many borders separating Argentina and Salvador, since many governments were still imposing travel restrictions due to a Covid pandemic. So two weeks before the November event, the Labitconf team decided to fund a second Bitcoineta directly in El Salvador, as part of the Bitcoin Beach circular economy. Thus the second Bitcoineta was born.
The eye-catching Volkswagen minibus has been donated to the Bitcoin Beach team, which uses the car for the needs of its circular economy based in El Zonte.
Late 2021 saw one other major development in terms of grassroots bitcoin adoption. On the other side of the planet, in South Africa, Hermann Vivier initiated the Bitcoin Ekasi project. “Ekasi” is a colloquial term for a township, and a township in the South African context is an underdeveloped urban area with a predominantly black population, a remnant of the segregationist apartheid regime. Bitcoin Ekasi emerged as an attempt to introduce bitcoin into the economy of the JCC Camp township located in Mossel Bay, and has gained a lot of success on that front.
Bitcoin Ekasi was in large part inspired by the success of the Bitcoin Beach circular economy back in El Salvador, and the respect was mutual. The Bitcoin Beach team thus decided to pass on the favor they received from the Argentinian Bitcoineta team, and provided funds to Bitcoin Ekasi for them to build a Bitcoineta of their own.
Bitcoin Ekasi emerged as a sister organization of Surfer Kids, a non-profit organization with a mission to empower marginalized youths through surfing. The Ekasi Bitcoineta thus partially serves as a means to get the kids to visit various surfer competitions in South Africa. A major highlight in this regard was when the kids got to meet Jordy Smith, one of the most successful South African surfers worldwide.
Coincidentally, South African surfers present an intriguing demographic for understanding Bitcoin due to their unique circumstances and needs. To make it as a professional surfer, the athletes need to attend competitions abroad; but since South Africa has tight currency controls in place, it is often a headache to send money abroad for travel and competition expenses. The borderless nature of Bitcoin offers a solution to these constraints, providing surfers with an alternative means of moving funds across borders without any obstacles.
Photo taken at the South African Junior Surfing Championships 2023. Back row, left to right:
Mbasa, Chuma, Jordy Smith, Sandiso. Front, left to right: Owethu, Sibulele.
To find out more about Bitcoineta South Africa and the non-profit endeavors it serves, watch Lekker Feeling, a documentary by Aubrey Strobel:
The European Bitcoineta started its journey in early 2023, with Ariel Aguilar being one of the main catalysts behind the idea. Unlike its predecessors in El Salvador and South Africa, the European Bitcoineta was not funded by a previous team but instead secured support from individual donors, reflecting a grassroots approach to spreading financial literacy.
The European Bitcoineta is a Mercedes box van adorned with a prominent Bitcoin logo and inspiring messages, and serves as a mobile hub for education and discussion at numerous European Bitcoin conferences and local meetups. Inside its spacious interior, both notable bitcoiners and bitcoin plebs share their insights on the walls, fostering a sense of camaraderie and collaboration.
Introduced in December 2023 at the Africa Bitcoin Conference in Ghana, the fifth Bitcoineta was donated to the Ghanaian Bitcoin Cowries educational initiative as part of the Trezor Academy program.
Bitcoineta West Africa was funded by the proceeds from the bitcoin-only limited edition Trezor device, which was sold out within one day of its launch at the Bitcoin Amsterdam conference.
With plans for an extensive tour spanning Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, and potentially other countries within the ECOWAS political and economic union, Bitcoineta West Africa embodies the spirit of collaboration and solidarity in driving Bitcoin adoption and financial inclusion throughout the Global South.
All the Bitcoineta cars around the world share one overarching mission: to empower their local communities through bitcoin education, and thus improve the lives of common people that might have a strong need for bitcoin without being currently aware of such need. As they continue to traverse borders and break down barriers, Bitcoinetas serve as a reminder of the power of grassroots initiatives and the importance of financial education in shaping a more inclusive future. The tradition of Bitcoinetas will continue to flourish, and in the years to come we will hopefully encounter a brazenly decorated bitcoin car everywhere we go.
If the inspiring stories of Bitcoinetas have ignited a passion within you to make a difference in your community, we encourage you to take action! Reach out to one of the existing Bitcoineta teams for guidance, support, and inspiration on how to start your own initiative. Whether you're interested in spreading Bitcoin education, promoting financial literacy, or fostering empowerment in underserved areas, the Bitcoineta community is here to help you every step of the way. Together, we will orange pill the world!
This is a guest post by Josef Tetek. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution…
Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites.
“Such is unsurprising, given that retail investors often fall victim to the psychological behavior of the “fear of missing out.” The chart below shows the “dumb money index” versus the S&P 500. Once again, retail investors are very long equities relative to the institutional players ascribed to being the “smart money.””
“The difference between “smart” and “dumb money” investors shows that, more often than not, the “dumb money” invests near market tops and sells near market bottoms.”
That enthusiasm has increased sharply since last November as stocks surged in hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. As noted by Sentiment Trader:
“Over the past 18 weeks, the straight-up rally has moved us to an interesting juncture in the Sentiment Cycle. For the past few weeks, the S&P 500 has demonstrated a high positive correlation to the ‘Enthusiasm’ part of the cycle and a highly negative correlation to the ‘Panic’ phase.”
That frenzy to chase the markets, driven by the psychological bias of the “fear of missing out,” has permeated the entirety of the market. As noted in “This Is Nuts:”
“Since then, the entire market has surged higher following last week’s earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA). The reason I say “this is nuts” is the assumption that all companies were going to grow earnings and revenue at Nvidia’s rate. There is little doubt about Nvidia’s earnings and revenue growth rates. However, to maintain that growth pace indefinitely, particularly at 32x price-to-sales, means others like AMD and Intel must lose market share.”
Of course, it is not just a speculative frenzy in the markets for stocks, specifically anything related to “artificial intelligence,” but that exuberance has spilled over into gold and cryptocurrencies.
Birds Of A Feather
There are a couple of ways to measure exuberance in the assets. While sentiment measures examine the broad market, technical indicators can reflect exuberance on individual asset levels. However, before we get to our charts, we need a brief explanation of statistics, specifically, standard deviation.
“Like a rubber band that has been stretched too far – it must be relaxed in order to be stretched again. This is exactly the same for stock prices that are anchored to their moving averages. Trends that get overextended in one direction, or another, always return to their long-term average. Even during a strong uptrend or strong downtrend, prices often move back (revert) to a long-term moving average.”
The idea of “stretching the rubber band” can be measured in several ways, but I will limit our discussion this week to Standard Deviation and measuring deviation with “Bollinger Bands.”
“Standard Deviation” is defined as:
“A measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is calculated as the square root of the variance.”
In plain English,this meansthat the further away from the average that an event occurs, the more unlikely it becomes. As shown below, out of 1000 occurrences, only three will fall outside the area of 3 standard deviations. 95.4% of the time, events will occur within two standard deviations.
A second measure of “exuberance” is “relative strength.”
“In technical analysis, the relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can read from 0 to 100.
Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.” – Investopedia
With those two measures, let’s look at Nvidia (NVDA), the poster child of speculative momentum trading in the markets. Nvidia trades more than 3 standard deviations above its moving average, and its RSI is 81. The last time this occurred was in July of 2023 when Nvidia consolidated and corrected prices through November.
Interestingly, gold also trades well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI reading of 75. Given that gold is supposed to be a “safe haven” or “risk off” asset, it is instead getting swept up in the current market exuberance.
The same is seen with digital currencies. Given the recent approval of spot, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the panic bid to buy Bitcoin has pushed the price well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI of 73.
In other words, the stock market frenzy to “buy anything that is going up” has spread from just a handful of stocks related to artificial intelligence to gold and digital currencies.
It’s All Relative
We can see the correlation between stock market exuberance and gold and digital currency, which has risen since 2015 but accelerated following the post-pandemic, stimulus-fueled market frenzy. Since the market, gold and cryptocurrencies, or Bitcoin for our purposes, have disparate prices, we have rebased the performance to 100 in 2015.
Gold was supposed to be an inflation hedge. Yet, in 2022, gold prices fell as the market declined and inflation surged to 9%. However, as inflation has fallen and the stock market surged, so has gold. Notably, since 2015, gold and the market have moved in a more correlated pattern, which has reduced the hedging effect of gold in portfolios. In other words, during the subsequent market decline, gold will likely track stocks lower, failing to provide its “wealth preservation” status for investors.
The same goes for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is substantially more volatile than gold and tends to ebb and flow with the overall market. As sentiment surges in the S&P 500, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies follow suit as speculative appetites increase. Unfortunately, for individuals once again piling into Bitcoin to chase rising prices, if, or when, the market corrects, the decline in cryptocurrencies will likely substantially outpace the decline in market-based equities. This is particularly the case as Wall Street can now short the spot-Bitcoin ETFs, creating additional selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Just for added measure, here is Bitcoin versus gold.
Not A Recommendation
There are many narratives surrounding the markets, digital currency, and gold. However, in today’s market, more than in previous years, all assets are getting swept up into the investor-feeding frenzy.
Sure, this time could be different. I am only making an observation and not an investment recommendation.
However, from a portfolio management perspective, it will likely pay to remain attentive to the correlated risk between asset classes. If some event causes a reversal in bullish exuberance, cash and bonds may be the only place to hide.
BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals.
Credit: Impact Journals
BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals.
Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”
Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Agingteam.
About Aging-US:
Agingpublishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.
Agingis indexed and archived byPubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed Central, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).
Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com and connect with us:
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