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Risk it for Bitcoin: Has $BTC Matured Enough to be a Safe Investment Play?

Institutional investors have arrived at the cryptocurrency table, but does that mean that Bitcoin has now become a safe investment?
Bitcoin has often been described as the “digital gold” of the 21st century, but is the cryptocurrency..

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This article was originally published by the Coin Telegraph.

Institutional investors have arrived at the cryptocurrency table, but does that mean that Bitcoin has now become a safe investment?

Bitcoin has often been described as the “digital gold” of the 21st century, but is the cryptocurrency truly reliable as a new safe haven against financial uncertainty and inflation? The question is a difficult one to answer, but the actions of a number of major institutions and the sentiments of some well-renowned investment managers suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) is becoming more attractive as a hedge against these fears.

Business analytics firm MicroStrategy has led the institutional charge into Bitcoin over the past six months, having purchased more than $1 billion worth of BTC after adopting the cryptocurrency as its primary treasury reserve asset. The company now holds approximately 70,784 BTC.

MicroStrategy’s CEO, Michael Saylor, has been abundantly clear in his assertion that the preeminent cryptocurrency is a superior store of value over fiat money, and he’s put his Bitcoin where his mouth is since August 2020.

Meanwhile, Grayscale Investments has been vacuuming up Bitcoin in recent months and has firmly established itself as the largest digital asset manager in the world. Grayscale’s Bitcoin holdings are a significant contributor to its overall portfolio, with its roughly 648,000 BTC valued at over $20 billion, according to the latest data from the firm.

Following in the footsteps of these proverbial Bitcoin trailblazers, SkyBridge Capital launched its own Bitcoin fund in December 2020. Skybridge was founded by American financier and former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci, who has delivered some very bullish statements about Bitcoin’s future as a safe-haven asset.

Scaramucci and SkyBridge executive Brett Messing penned an op-ed published by CNN that portrays BTC as an increasingly attractive option for long-term investors looking for shelter from inflation. The pair said that increased regulation, improved infrastructure and financial institutions offering exposure to cryptocurrencies have “made bitcoin investments as safe as owning bonds and commodities like gold, which are also used to balance portfolios.”

Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency space have been thrust into mainstream consciousness once again as BTC, Ether (ETH) and other altcoins have hit all-time highs over the past two months. What remains to be seen is if Bitcoin will indeed become less volatile and live up to the hopes of Scaramucci, Saylor and others who see the cryptocurrency becoming a new-age safe-haven asset.

Changing perceptions

There has been an overarching sentiment that the current cryptocurrency boom is inherently different from previous periods of considerable growth. Driven by a force of institutional interest, cryptocurrencies are seemingly becoming a more reputable investment for individuals and institutions alike.

Pavel Matveev, CEO of cryptocurrency payments firm Wirex, told Cointelegraph that the perception of Bitcoin may well be changing despite the fact that it still retains its notoriety for extreme price volatility.

Matveev said that the price of Bitcoin is still three times more volatile than the S&P 500 index, while more recent haywire movements in value have been driven by macroeconomic factors like the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting fiscal measures by governments to address the situation:

“The most volatile drivers of the BTC price have been its limited supply and its booming demand from institution-grade investors. That being said, the QE measures and the low to negative rates environment did increase liquidity to historical levels. Naturally, the choice for a company to allocate a small portion of treasury funds in a rallying Bitcoin when the value of the Greenback is collapsing is natural.”

A pertinent question for many is whether Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like Ether are now becoming more trustworthy, long-term investments amid continued economic uncertainty. Matveev noted that institutions, which are typically long-term holders, will have made informed decisions when looking to invest in BTC.

Bitcoin’s positive track record for long-term appreciation has been a driver of interest from institutions, and Matveev also noted that some publicly listed payments companies have committed to integrating Bitcoin into their core activities, which adds further credence to the performance of BTC’s price. However, he conceded that this “doesn’t change Bitcoin’s high market volatility in the short-term” but at least makes it an eligible investment.

Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com — an exchange and crypto card issuer — noted to Cointelegraph the impact that institutional investment is having on the cryptocurrency markets and suggested that their continued involvement could bring balance to the space: “Investing in Bitcoin today is different than it was in 2017, when it was primarily retail-led and thus prone to more dramatic market movements.” He added:

“Today we are seeing large investors like Michael Saylor at MicroStrategy who have taken large Bitcoin positions with a long-term thesis based approach. A large part of their thesis is that BTC is not only a hedge against inflation, but a better hedge than gold. Their size and thesis may bring more long-term stability to the Bitcoin market.”

Marszalek also highlighted the fact that some renowned traditional financial asset management firms like Fidelity and JPMorgan Chase have started to advocate for clients to have a 2% to 5% exposure to cryptocurrency in their portfolios. He believes it’s evidence that the tide is shifting: “There’s no doubt that perception of BTC has turned a corner. As a result BTC is safer than it used to be as a long-term hedge, but still carries risk like any other investment.”

Regulation plays a role

As interest in the space continues unabated, questions around regulation are still a prominent point of discussion in the potential long-term adoption and appreciation of cryptocurrencies. Wirex’s Matveev agreed that regulation could well have an influence on cryptocurrencies being considered conventional, long-term investments in the next few years, adding further:

“Like with all investments, there’s an element of risk so it wouldn’t be right to say that any investment is 100% safe as the markets are constantly changing, but I think public opinion is beginning to sway towards seeing crypto as a great alternative to regular payments.”

Renowned hedge fund manager Ray Dalio also waded into the Bitcoin conversation at the end of January in a personal post on LinkedIn. Dalio is well-known as a proponent for Gold as a long-term investment and store of value. In his essay which he penned in an effort to avoid ‘media misinterpretation’, Dalio described a number of reasons why he believes Bitcoin has become an “alternative gold-like asset”. At the same time, Dalio believes that the limited supply of Bitcoin is a point of contention, as other cryptocurrencies that fulfil a similar role could negate its finite supply.

While he noted the apparent success of Bitcoin as a new invention in the decade since its inception, Dalio also highlighted the fact that governments and banks will not simply let a competitive system upset their control on the global economy especially when it comes to the ‘privacy’ that Bitcoin affords users:

“It is hard for me to imagine that they would allow Bitcoin (or gold) to be an obviously better choice than the money and credit that they are producing. I suspect that Bitcoin’s biggest risk is being successful, because if it’s successful, the government will try to kill it and they have a lot of power to succeed.”

With his firm operating across multiple jurisdictions, Marszalek has direct experience working with regulators, and he highlighted its base in Malta as a prime example of the potential benefits of clear, fair regulatory parameters: “2020 was a year where regulation for cryptocurrencies advanced quite a lot. [...] Malta is one of the few jurisdictions in the EU that have developed a clear digital assets regulatory framework to protect investors.”

While the outlook for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies markets is in a very positive space, there are still prevailing risks associated with investing in the space. The cryptocurrency market is still in its infancy and, as highlighted above,  some areas still need to be addressed before Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies would truly become tried and trusted long-term investments.

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Government

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

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Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

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Government

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

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Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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