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Raymond James: These 3 Stocks Are Poised to Surge by at Least 50%

In a recent note on the state of the stock markets, Raymond James equity strategist Tavis McCourt points out a series of policy factors that are playing a role in
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In a recent note on the state of the stock markets, Raymond James equity strategist Tavis McCourt points out a series of policy factors that are playing a role in the current market volatility; the situation is more complex, perhaps, than most of us have been willing to admit. McCourt notes permutations of the SLR rule, political dynamics on the Senate Banking Committee, and the regulatory atmosphere towards potential capital return are all influencing the Fed’s moves and the market reactions.

“We believe the Fed will do everything they can to ensure orderly trading in US Treasuries and does not want to see the volatility and liquidity concerns that have occurred in the last week/over the course of the pandemic. We also believe that the Fed is not interested in having a spike in yields as Treasury seeks to finance the next round of stimulus," McCourt opined.

The strategist added, "While the SLR conversation is a political and market issue for the Fed, we believe that any Treasury and/or equity market sell-off tied to the debate is transitory and overblown. We are more focused on the improving economic environment, vaccine distribution, and reflation."

Bearing this in mind, our focus turned to three stocks backed by Raymond James, with the firm’s analysts noting that each could soar over 50% from current levels. Running the tickers through TipRanks’ database, we found out that the rest of the Street is also on board, as each boasts a Moderate or Strong Buy consensus rating.

Orasure Technologies (OSUR)

We’ll start in the medical industry, a field that has seen gains through the pandemic year. Orasure, through its subsidiaries, is a producer of medical diagnostic tests, and is known for developing rapid test kits for HIV, HEP-C, and Ebola. In the past year, the company created over 150 jobs at its Bethlehem, Pennsylvania facilities as part of an effort to develop fast, at-home, COVID test kits. The company’s product line has a wide range of uses, and is marketed to clinical labs, hospitals, physician practices, and public health agencies world-wide.

As can be imagined, Orasure has seen a quick recovery from a 1H20 revenue dip followed by strong gains. Q4 top-line revenues hit $62.9 million, for a 27% year-over-year gain. This was driven by product and services revenues, which grew 28% to reach $60.4 million. EPS was positive, at 3 cents per share, which was a good turnaround from negative results in the first half of the year – but was down 25% from 4Q19.

For the full year, Orasure reported $172 million in net revenues, an 11% yoy gain. Of this total, $50 million came from sales of oral fluid collection devices (mouth swabs) for COVID-19 test kits. In addition, the company reported continued progress on its COVID-19 rapid antigen test, and plans to submit prescription self-tests and professional-grade tests for EUA (Emergency Use Authorization) by the FDA by the end of the first quarter.

Analyst Andrew Cooper, in his coverage on the stock for Raymond James, saw plenty to like, ticking off the factors by the numbers: “What we liked: 1) Almost every revenue result. Orasure topped consensus sales estimates by 10%... 2) Concrete antigen EUA submission timeline. There is no misunderstanding an expected submission this month, with studies completed and only more administrative type work remaining... 3) More capacity expansion. Existing capacity timelines are on track, but management now intends to add another 50M of annual antigen capacity...”

To this end, Cooper puts a $16 price target on the stock, implying a 52% one-year upside, and rates OSUR an Outperform (i.e. Buy). (To watch Cooper’s track record, click here)

A solid reputation in the field, and clear path forward are sure to attract positive sentiment – and three Wall Street analysts have put Buy ratings on Orasure, making the analyst consensus a Strong Buy. Shares are priced at $10.49, and the $18.67 average price target is even more bullish than Coopers, suggesting a 78% upside for the next 12 months. (See OSUR stock analysis on TipRanks)

Sol-Gel Technologies (SLGL)

Sticking to the medical field, we’ll switch focus to a clinical stage pharmaceutical company. Sol-Gel is a biopharma with an interesting niche, developing topical medications for the treatment of skin diseases.

The company’s pipeline includes two proprietary formulations based on benzoyl peroxide, both creams: Epsolay, which is a treatment for papulopustular rosacea, and Twyneo, a treatment for acne. Both medications had their NDAs (New Drug Applications) filed with the FDA, and final approval decision is expected in April and August of this year, respectively.

Sol-Gel has, in addition, three other drug candidates in early stages of the pipeline process. Two are still in the research phase, while SGT-210 is in Phase I trial, with results due in 1H21. SGT-210 is a potential treatment for palmoplantar keratoderma, a thickening of the skin on the palms of the hands and feet which is sometimes seen as a symptom of several rare conditions.

Furthermore, Sol-Gel is working in collaboration with Perrigo as the US manufacturer of generic labels of that company’s brand-name products. In 2020, the two companies signed four agreements, and now have 12 total collaboration projects.

Among the fans is Raymond James analyst Elliot Wilbur who writes, "Given the large market opportunity in key pipeline products, coupled with recent acceptance of NDA submissions, we maintain our Strong Buy rating on SLGL shares, as we remain optimistic surrounding near-term growth prospects and financial positioning."

The Strong Buy rating comes with a $23 price target, suggesting SLGL has room to grow an impressive 156% in the year ahead. (To watch Wilbur’s track record, click here)

Small-cap biopharmas don’t always get a lot of analyst attention – they tend to fly under the radar. However, there are two reviews on file here and both are to Buy, making the consensus rating a Moderate Buy. SLGL shares are priced at $9, with an average price target of $22 indicating a runway toward ~145% upside for 2021. (See SLGL stock analysis on TipRanks)

PAE (PAE)

Let’s switch gears, and look at government support services. It’s no secret that governments are huge users of contract service companies, and PAE is a major provider of contract services for US government and defense agencies. PAE has operations on every continent and in 60 countries, providing a range of services, including analysis and training, intelligence, infrastructure operations, management and maintenance, logistic and material support, and information optimization.

Until recently, PAE was a privately held company, but in February last year it was merged with Gores Holdings III in a SPAC transaction. The transaction brought PAE shares onto the NASDAQ exchange on February 10, 2020.

2021 has started with some changes in PAE’s contracts with the US government. At the end of January, the company lost a bid to renew a $125 million contract it had held with Customs and Border Patrol since 2009 – but earlier that same month, PAE was awarded a $3.3. billion contract with the US State Department. The contract with State involve consular operations at diplomatic facilities in 120 countries.

5-star analyst Brian Gesuale, in his coverage of PAE for Raymond James, notes the change in contracts, and does not believe it should trouble PAE.

“PAE’s qualified pipeline still sits around $40B and pending awards north of $6B, which when combined with the company’s 2020 recompete win rate of 93% provides us confidence that CBP contract can be adequately replaced,” Gesuale commented.

Turning to specifics on the State contract, Gesuale adds, “…this contract win could add upwards to $110 to $125 million of high-margin annual revenue to the 2022 model. Overall our estimates are going higher, and we continue to view PAE as one of the more compelling opportunities in the Government IT Services space. While we expect the group will face decelerating fundamentals and a potentially meaningful re-rating lower from near historically high valuations PAE should fare differently as it accelerates organic growth…”

In line with these comments, the analyst puts an Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating on the stock, and his $15 price target implies a 77% one-year upside. (To watch Gesuale’s track record, click here)

PAE stock has a resounding “yes” on Wall Street. TipRanks analytics show that out of 3 analysts, all 3 are bullish. The average price target of $12.67 shows a potential upside of about 50%. (See PAE stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

The post Raymond James: These 3 Stocks Are Poised to Surge by at Least 50% appeared first on TipRanks Financial Blog.

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Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges

Here’s what could happen to Apple shares next.

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They said it was bound to happen.

It was Jan. 11, 2024 when software giant Microsoft  (MSFT)  briefly passed Apple  (AAPL)  as the most valuable company in the world.

Microsoft's stock closed 0.5% higher, giving it a market valuation of $2.859 trillion. 

It rose as much as 2% during the session and the company was briefly worth $2.903 trillion. Apple closed 0.3% lower, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.886 trillion. 

"It was inevitable that Microsoft would overtake Apple since Microsoft is growing faster and has more to benefit from the generative AI revolution," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said at the time, according to Reuters.

The two tech titans have jostled for top spot over the years and Microsoft was ahead at last check, with a market cap of $3.085 trillion, compared with Apple's value of $2.684 trillion.

Analysts noted that Apple had been dealing with weakening demand, including for the iPhone, the company’s main source of revenue. 

Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country's economy makes a slow recovery from the pandemic and competition from Huawei.

Sales in China of Apple's iPhone fell by 24% in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to research firm Counterpoint, as the company contended with stiff competition from a resurgent Huawei "while getting squeezed in the middle on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi," said senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang.

“Although the iPhone 15 is a great device, it has no significant upgrades from the previous version, so consumers feel fine holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now," he said.

A man scrolling through Netflix on an Apple iPad Pro. Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Future Publishing/Getty Images

Big plans for China

Counterpoint said that the first six weeks of 2023 saw abnormally high numbers with significant unit sales being deferred from December 2022 due to production issues.

Apple is planning to open its eighth store in Shanghai – and its 47th across China – on March 21.

Related: Tech News Now: OpenAI says Musk contract 'never existed', Xiaomi's EV, and more

The company also plans to expand its research centre in Shanghai to support all of its product lines and open a new lab in southern tech hub Shenzhen later this year, according to the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Apple announced changes to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which went into effect last week, Reuters reported on March 12.

Beginning this spring, software developers operating in Europe will be able to distribute apps to EU customers directly from their own websites instead of through the App Store.

"To reflect the DMA’s changes, users in the EU can install apps from alternative app marketplaces in iOS 17.4 and later," Apple said on its website, referring to the software platform that runs iPhones and iPads. 

"Users will be able to download an alternative marketplace app from the marketplace developer’s website," the company said.

Apple has also said it will appeal a $2 billion EU antitrust fine for thwarting competition from Spotify  (SPOT)  and other music streaming rivals via restrictions on the App Store.

The company's shares have suffered amid all this upheaval, but some analysts still see good things in Apple's future.

Bank of America Securities confirmed its positive stance on Apple, maintaining a buy rating with a steady price target of $225, according to Investing.com

The firm's analysis highlighted Apple's pricing strategy evolution since the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007, with initial prices set at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB model.

BofA said that Apple has consistently launched new iPhone models, including the Pro/Pro Max versions, to target the premium market. 

Analyst says Apple selloff 'overdone'

Concurrently, prices for previous models are typically reduced by about $100 with each new release. 

This strategy, coupled with installment plans from Apple and carriers, has contributed to the iPhone's installed base reaching a record 1.2 billion in 2023, the firm said.

More Tech Stocks:

Apple has effectively shifted its sales mix toward higher-value units despite experiencing slower unit sales, BofA said.

This trend is expected to persist and could help mitigate potential unit sales weaknesses, particularly in China. 

BofA also noted Apple's dominance in the high-end market, maintaining a market share of over 90% in the $1,000 and above price band for the past three years.

The firm also cited the anticipation of a multi-year iPhone cycle propelled by next-generation AI technology, robust services growth, and the potential for margin expansion.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said they believed that the sell-off in the iPhone maker’s shares may be “overdone.”

The firm said that investors' growing preference for AI-focused stocks like Nvidia  (NVDA)  has led to a reallocation of funds away from Apple. 

In addition, Evercore said concerns over weakening demand in China, where Apple may be losing market share in the smartphone segment, have affected investor sentiment.

And then ongoing regulatory issues continue to have an impact on investor confidence in the world's second-biggest company.

“We think the sell-off is rather overdone, while we suspect there is strong valuation support at current levels to down 10%, there are three distinct drivers that could unlock upside on the stock from here – a) Cap allocation, b) AI inferencing, and c) Risk-off/defensive shift," the firm said in a research note.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Major typhoid fever surveillance study in sub-Saharan Africa indicates need for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high…

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There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Credit: IVI

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

 

The findings from this 4-year study, the Severe Typhoid in Africa (SETA) program, offers new typhoid fever burden estimates from six countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria, with four countries recording more than 100 cases for every 100,000 person-years of observation, which is considered a high burden. The highest incidence of typhoid was found in DRC with 315 cases per 100,000 people while children between 2-14 years of age were shown to be at highest risk across all 25 study sites.

 

There are an estimated 12.5 to 16.3 million cases of typhoid every year with 140,000 deaths. However, with generic symptoms such as fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain, and the need for blood culture sampling to make a definitive diagnosis, it is difficult for governments to capture the true burden of typhoid in their countries.

 

“Our goal through SETA was to address these gaps in typhoid disease burden data,” said lead author Dr. Florian Marks, Deputy Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). “Our estimates indicate that introduction of TCV in endemic settings would go to lengths in protecting communities, especially school-aged children, against this potentially deadly—but preventable—disease.”

 

In addition to disease incidence, this study also showed that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Salmonella Typhi, the bacteria that causes typhoid fever, has led to more reliance beyond the traditional first line of antibiotic treatment. If left untreated, severe cases of the disease can lead to intestinal perforation and even death. This suggests that prevention through vaccination may play a critical role in not only protecting against typhoid fever but reducing the spread of drug-resistant strains of the bacteria.

 

There are two TCVs prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and available through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. In February 2024, IVI and SK bioscience announced that a third TCV, SKYTyphoid™, also achieved WHO PQ, paving the way for public procurement and increasing the global supply.

 

Alongside the SETA disease burden study, IVI has been working with colleagues in three African countries to show the real-world impact of TCV vaccination. These studies include a cluster-randomized trial in Agogo, Ghana and two effectiveness studies following mass vaccination in Kisantu, DRC and Imerintsiatosika, Madagascar.

 

Dr. Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Associate Director General at IVI and Head of the Real-World Evidence Department, explains, “Through these vaccine effectiveness studies, we aim to show the full public health value of TCV in settings that are directly impacted by a high burden of typhoid fever.” He adds, “Our final objective of course is to eliminate typhoid or to at least reduce the burden to low incidence levels, and that’s what we are attempting in Fiji with an island-wide vaccination campaign.”

 

As more countries in typhoid endemic countries, namely in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, consider TCV in national immunization programs, these data will help inform evidence-based policy decisions around typhoid prevention and control.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that is recently pre-qualified by WHO.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, a Country Office in Austria, and Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

CONTACT

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int


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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC’s…

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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever... And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC's Brian Sullivan took a horse dose of Red Pills when, about six months after our readers, he learned that the US is issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, which prompted him to rage tweet, (or rageX, not sure what the proper term is here) the following:

We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.   

Maybe it will never matter.   Maybe MMT is real.   Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.

I have no idea.  Only time will tell.   But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."

According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.

The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...

... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.

The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.

And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.

But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).

And it gets even worse, because we are now in the ponzi finance stage of the Minsky cycle, with total interest on the debt annualizing well above $1 trillion, and rising every day

... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.

We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...

.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:

The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.

Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.

That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.

No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.

Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 18:40

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