Connect with us

Random Thoughts – After the Crisis, Opportunity

The pandemic crisis has created the opportunity for an economic and social reset. The question is whether politicians will grasp it. Are we too focused on repairing yesterday’s world rather than building tomorrow? The biggest danger is being short on…

Published

on

pandemic Crisis loose monetary policy Coronavirus stimulus checks calculator Coronavirus stimulus check send

The pandemic crisis has created the opportunity for an economic and social reset. The question is whether politicians will grasp it. Are we too focused on repairing yesterday’s world rather than building tomorrow? The biggest danger is being short on effective action. The risk is not on the left or the right – it’s inaction.

Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Pandemic Crisis

Covid-19 has changed the trajectory of three big forces that are shaping the modern world. Globalization took a hit. The digital revolution has been radically accelerated. And the geopolitical rivalry between America and China has intensified.

The pandemic crisis has compressed years’ worth of transformation into months, bringing with it a dramatic shake-up in how people live, what they buy and where they work. Fortunately the Internet we have is just good enough to make it happen. It’s not perfect, it’s not great, but just good enough to make it work. I don’t think we could have handled it as well five or ten years ago. With everyone on Zoom and Netflix at the same time, the whole world would have broken.

China

The Sino-American rivalry will continue. I don’t think Biden is in a rush to removed the tariffs imposed by the previous administration. The United-States and the world is suspicious of China. Despite for all its “vaccine diplomacy”, China inspire fear and suspicion. That means once again America will have disproportionate ability to shape the post-pandemic world. The world is splitting in two parts. One American led, the other Chinese dominated. The digital world and supply chain is designed by these two countries.

How should the US approach China? First, through diplomacy. The US need to strike a bargain with Europe (+Canada and Oceania) and form a new global alliance, binding Asian democracies into the Western coalition to counter China. Second, the U.S. and China need to send their top three diplomats on an island and workout a deal.

What’s next?

All these predictions about what the world would like post-Covid, as usual, is all nonsense. It’s just filler material. Nobody really knows. Some say we will return, eventually, to what we were before. Others say no way, we are not going back into offices and stores. But the truth will be somewhere in between.

Vaccine

The good news: We will have many more vaccines in the next six months to complement the successful candidate from Pfizer-BioNTech. That is the testament to the power of scientific collaboration. Vaccines used to take 10-20 years to create, but today there are more than 320 projects, including dozens in advanced clinical trials. As teams attack the virus from different angles the work yield considerable advances in vaccine research.

The bad news: The distribution is an absolute mess. We can’t get it to people. For a world that desperately needs to be vaccinated, looking into this is a frustration trigger.

I don’t pretend to know all the answers but I can point in the right direction: Israel. From the start they administered over 150,000 shots a day, multiple more than any other countries on earth. Let’s take what they do right and apply it.

A big difference is in their approach and attitude. Israel is in a constant war state. Their government in collaboration with the military are drilled in getting things done. Because they are surrounded by people that wants them dead for the last 70 years, they have a constant war mentality mindset. We should adapt a similar approach. Getting things done. Let’s make vaccination a giant national effort project. Let’s pool our resources in getting this done. Vaccinate day and night, weekends, including Valentine’s day, like thousand of lives depend on that effort. Our economy will come back and so are jobs. It can’t be worse than how it’s done now.

Covid-19 will not disappear but it will start to fade in the background. I’m optimistic that we will get through. Most likely a muddle through. That means getting through many obstacles but we will get there.

Stock Market

The biggest question I get is: Are we in a bubble? Well actually no ask me anymore, they just tell me we are one. There are a lot of evidences that is pointing to bubble activity (SPACs, GME, Bitcoin, Robinhoodies, Tesla, real estate etc…) So sure they are certain sectors that are absolutely mad crazy. If a 20-30-40% correction happened tomorrow I wouldn’t be surprised. Anything could trigger that. Nobody is saying it’s a good idea to buy GameStop at $150 a share.

But overall, you could argue that we are not in a bubble. Sure stocks and assets are not cheap but some stuff looks reasonable. Look at it this way. Interest rates are almost at zero. Real interest rates are negative. Central banks have indicated they are not going anywhere anytime soon. There is no where else to put your money. And on the top of that, you have the world governments going full gun blazing on the money printing press. There is so much money in the system and more is coming. It’s pointing one way: up.

Inflation

Will inflation start to kick in?

https://www.corona-stocks.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/33e4903e2c4c1a4f95a676824d7d0e7a.png

We have been lucky not to have a lot of inflation in the last thirty years (~2% official numbers). With all the money printing you would expect higher inflation and eventually higher interest rates. Anyway that’s the conventional textbook thinking. But we have been printing money for a long time without having signification inflation. Commodity prices are on the rise as the table above demonstrate.

It seems that inflation via excess money creation is coming our way. It doesn’t mean it will, but there are credible reasons to believe it will. Will it go up long term? Or is this just a short-term bump?

The best paper and book I’ve read on inflation and prices is not from an economist, but from two historians, Paul Schmelzing and David Hackett Fisher. Paul Schmelzing looked at eight centuries of interest rate in his paper: Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018 and David Hackett Fisher with his book The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History Their work puts the present day in a historical perspective encompassing many centuries.
We normally look at the demand side, but there is a supply side too. Events, like war, famine, and epidemics destroy capital and led to inflation. Human capital is the most important. Now we have a pandemic crisis but we also have mass money flooding the system. We are currently writing the book on how this will work out. Maybe understanding the past can teach us to avoid disaster.

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin is becoming more accepted. Bitcoin is not the most technology sound currency, but it’s the one most people believe in. A lot of professional investors have changed their tunes on Bitcoin and cryptos in the last couple of years. It’s becoming more widely accepted. I took a crypto deep dive during the 2017 bubble. I get it. It’s not simple but there’s something there but we are not there yet. The technology/infrastructure/legal framework to support crypto currencies as mainstream currencies is not there yet. I think in the future there will be higher crypto currency penetration in the economy. I guess we are all waiting for that “killer” app to force adaption. Nobody knows where it will come from or which currency will win (doesn’t have to be just one). My prediction: Cryptocurrency adoption through mass teenagers on some kind of wallet app with a closed system (where the app keeps the money instead of sending it to the bank) where they can cryptocurrency among themselves outside the banking system.. The catalyst could be a game like Fortnite where all the kids hangout and want to trade stuff.

My Crypto Fail Story

I got into crypto trading during the 2017 bubble. I was fascinated by the space and to really learn about cryptos you really need to get your hands dirty. So I opened an account (complicated back then) and invested speculated a little bit of money just to see what would happen.

I opened an account with Coinbase at first. It was the most accessible in Canada but it had drawbacks. Fees were expensive and you didn’t have access to most cryptos. There was Bitcoin and another one back then. I’m sure it’s different now. I made a little bit of money with Bitcoin and then transferred to an exchange called QuadrigaCX. It was highly recommended in Canada. Fees were lower, better relations with bank, and access to many different type of cryptos. I sold Bitcoin and bought some Ethereum and triple my money in a month. And that’s the last good part of that story because it all south from here.

I eventually got bored and moved on to other stuff. Then the bubble burst and I lost 75% of my value. Mistake #1: when you are up in gambling take you gains. Mistake #2: because my Ethereum were basically worthless at the time I didn’t care much and left them on the exchange instead of having it on a drive. The exchange, QuadrigaCX, bankrupted and the founder allegedly die in India. He used the company/money/crypto as a personal expense vehicle and was living it up. His wife says that everything was on his laptop and she doesn’t have the password. And without a key you don’t have access to the cryptos. The whole story is very controversial and is still under investigation.

The kick a guy when he’s down part: Ethereum is about 10x when where I bough it and I can’t have them. Coinbase is still around and filing for an IPO soon.
Anyway if somebody sees the QuadrigaCX founder please let me know, I would like a chat.

Super Bowl LV

Is this going to be the greatest Super Bowl ever? The expectations are going to be high. As Super Bowl matchups go, it doesn’t get much better than Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes. The GOAT vs the Kid. One is 43 and the other is 25 years old. That’s a 18 year gap. That’s like 6 average NFL career. It’s also weird that the Patriots are not there.

I’m going with the Chiefs. The line is 3 points and Chiefs are favorite. The over/under is 56.5.

Tom Brady

This is Tom Brady’s 10th Super Bowl appearance and this time on a different team at 43 years old. Just writing that was weird. The guy still competes at the highest level. It seems like he’s getting better. How is the even possible? I mean aren’t you tired of getting sacked by monsters? He should be broken.

NHL

Hockey is back and Canada has its own division, the North. Montreal Canadiens will grab the top spot.

Article by Brian Langis

The post Random Thoughts – After the Crisis, Opportunity appeared first on ValueWalk.

Read More

Continue Reading

Spread & Containment

The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

Published

on

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

Published

on

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

Published

on

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending