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Quinn: You Can’t Escape The Fourth Turning’s Winter Of Death

Quinn: You Can’t Escape The Fourth Turning’s Winter Of Death

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“Reflect on what happens…

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Quinn: You Can't Escape The Fourth Turning's Winter Of Death

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance.

“Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

It was less than a year ago on December 16, 2021 when our dementia patient in chief was instructed by his handlers to lie, obfuscate and demonize critical thinking Americans who refused to become victims of the Big Pharma, Fauci promoted, untested, unsafe, ineffective gene therapy by declaring “we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death for the unvaccinated — for themselves, their families and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm”. Biden’s vaccine mandates were overturned in the courts. The unvaccinated did not die from Covid. Very few people died from Covid. Some really old and infirm people on death’s doorstep died with Covid. Some very unhealthy obese people died with Covid. But even 95% of the old and unhealthy survived Covid.

Virtually no one under 70 years old died from Covid. Biden was lying. Fauci was lying. Walensky was lying. Gates was lying. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla was lying. Their paid-off medical industry was lying. Their highly compensated corporate legacy media talking heads were lying. Captured politicians were lying. The entire Covid scheme was nothing more than weaponizing the annual flu through fear propaganda, a billion-dollar advertising campaign, and enacting totalitarian measures on the world as part of the Great Reset Build Back Better New World Order plot orchestrated by our globalist oligarch overlords.

Every Fourth Turning has its own dynamics, chaotic current, political nuances, general confusion, antagonists, and event driven upheaval. We are currently in the 14th year of this Crisis and Biden’s predicted winter of death for the unvaccinated didn’t happen and death and illness is striking down the vaxxed in far greater numbers than the unvaxxed. The perpetrators of the pandemic exercise to see how far people of the developed world could be pushed, abused, and turned into subservient vassals of the state are now demanding amnesty for themselves and their co-conspirators, as the consequences of their murderous escapades become impossible to cover-up and conceal.

Real data from the real world, not from their skewed manipulated models, is piling up, and despite the media’s tireless efforts to ignore, censor, and misinform, the truth is seeping out through the diligent digging of those who were right from the very outset of this scamdemic.

The complete and utter failure of these so-called vaccines has been evident from the very outset, as infections, hospitalizations, and deaths increased after the vaccines were rolled out as the savior of all mankind. The vaccines performed so atrociously the CDC had to change the definition of vaccine in order to obscure what a failure they proved to be. The narrative police can obfuscate and attempt to revise history, but the lies are all documented and available for anyone to see and hear.

Fauci said masks don’t work. Fauci said the vaccines would keep you from getting Covid, transmitting Covid, being hospitalized from Covid, and dying from Covid. Walensky, Birx, Biden, Trump, and a slew of other “medical experts”, Hollywood stars, famous athletes, journalists, and Sesame Street characters all mouthed the same “safe and effective” tripe non-stop about a vaccine that is provably not safe and not effective. The few brave medical professionals who dared question the narrative and provide alternative treatments (ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine) were censored, scorned, ridiculed, banned, de-licensed, de-platformed, and had their careers destroyed.

The initial anecdotal evidence about the vaccines being useless in protecting anyone from the flu is now backed up by hundreds of real scientific studies (not fake studies bought by Big Pharma) showing boosters having negative efficacy as these multiple shots degrade people’s immune systems, just as doctors like Korry, Malone, McCullough, Vanden Bosche, Cole, Zelenko, and many others warned would happen. Anti-dependent Enhancement (ADE) is now happening in millions of those who have gotten vaxxed. Young people dying suddenly from heart attacks, myocarditis now becoming common in young men, athletes collapsing, cancer being activated by the spike protein, and the all-cause mortality skyrocketing across the world can no longer be denied.

Last week Service Corp Intl., the largest funeral home operator in the world, reported earnings far higher than they expected because non-Covid deaths were much higher than expected. The CEO said they expected 1% growth over the 3rd quarter of 2019 and ended up with 15% unexpected growth. Lincoln National, one of the largest life insurance companies in the country, reported terrible financial results as life insurance payouts on those between 18 and 64 years old soared 163%. Both companies said these were virtually all non-Covid deaths.

As these horrific trends continue, the true impact of these Big Pharma multi-billion-dollar profit potions of death will become unequivocally apparent. Biden will get his winter of death, but it won’t be the unvaxxed dying. With 250 million Americans and another 5 billion people around the world having their immune systems weakened by the Big Pharma gene altering money makers, the coming winter months will be problematic for millions of the duped. Expect hospitals to be overwhelmed and the media to remain silent about the true cause. As more children start dying suddenly, retribution against the murderers Fauci, Bourla, Walensky and a passel of pernicious pandemic protagonists will be on the minds of those who have lost children, spouses, and other loved ones.

Anyone expecting the domestic or international environment to improve in the near future are foolish and living in a state of denial. Fourth Turnings have ebbs and flows, but the intensity never diminishes until distinct winners and losers are patently unmistakable. Think Yorktown, Appomattox, and Hiroshima. All three previous American Fourth Turnings ended after all-out war, bloody conflict, and death on a grand scale. There is absolutely nothing going on the world today indicating we are not headed for a similar bloody outcome of death on an epic magnitude.

Biden’s handlers have him conducting a proxy war in the Ukraine against Russia, blowing up their pipelines, bridges, and war ships. Funneling $80 billion, with more on the way, to Zelensky and the most corrupt country on the planet is an act of war. At the same time, Biden’s amateur hour advisors continue to instigate China by actively supporting Taiwan independence. Alienating countries constituting half the population of earth is a recipe for global conflict.

The blowing up of the Nordstream pipeline by the U.S. and their U.K. co-conspirators has sentenced Germany to a winter of deprivation and desperation. German citizens will die this winter due to the actions of an American Empire thrashing about in its final death throes of debt, deception, degradation, and denial. This man made global catastrophe of supply chain calamity, raging inflation, energy crisis, and food shortages has been purposefully initiated by malevolent men who treat mankind like pawns in their game of global chess. The global reset is real.

Schwab, Gates, Soros, Obama, Biden, Clinton, and their cohort of Davos billionaires, Wall Street shysters, and satanic legions will stop at nothing to implement their agenda of turning the world into a techno-gulag where they control the population through social credit systems, human microchips, 24/7 surveillance, and central bank digital currencies. The peasants will own nothing and eat bugs, told they are happy under threat of the truncheon, while their overlords fly private jets, eat, and live like kings, owning everything and gleeful at their ability to control the world through psychological and technological manipulation of the willfully ignorant masses.

Domestically, the U.S. is contending with raging inflation, particularly in food, energy, shelter, and medical care – just the things needed by the middle class and poor to live their lives. The reported inflation of 7% to 8% is a lie and everyone knows it, even if they are unaware of the Fed/BLS bullshit “adjustments” which purposely reduce the true level of inflation by 5% to 8%. The manipulation of the data is to hide the truth from the masses.

Inflation is actually higher than it was in the early 1980’s when Volker needed to jack the Fed Funds rate to 18% to tame the raging inflation. Tough guy Powell, described by the feckless mainstream media as the new Volker, currently has the Fed Funds rate at 3.75%. Hysterically, the corrupt politicians and Wall Street cabal are demanding a halt to these “devastating” interest rate increases. And their demands will be met in 2023.

Our empire of debt ($31.2 trillion and rising by $6 billion per day) can’t handle much higher rates. Interest on the national debt was $399 billion in FY22, up from under $300 billion in FY16, and is now on track to exceed $700 billion in FY24. Powell and the Fed are now trapped by their own reckless kowtowing to their Wall Street owners and spineless political hack swamp rats in D.C.

They unleashed this inflationary wave across the globe purposely, while Biden and his handlers have exacerbated it with their green new deal and sanctions on Russian fuel, food, and fertilizer, leading to a looming global disaster on our doorstep. When people in 3rd world countries can’t afford food, they storm presidential palaces and hang their leaders. Revolutions have already begun across the world.

The middle and lower classes in the U.S. have already depleted their savings and maxed out their credit cards. They now need to choose whether they can eat, pay the utility bill, or pay for their prescription. Many have lived above their means, with McMansions “bought” with a $600,000 mortgage, $70,000 vehicles leased or financed over 7 years, and luxurious vacations on one of their 10 credit cards.

The poor didn’t benefit from the good times, but they are bearing the major burden of the food and energy inflation. The chickens have now come home to roost, and the wave of foreclosures, auto repossessions and credit card defaults will begin in earnest this winter as corporations across the land begin laying off millions. The downward spiral has begun and can’t be reversed.

The mid-term elections, which will go on until the democrat party of chaos is able to manufacture enough votes to retain the House, is being used as another psy-op to demoralize the masses, produce more civil strife and chaos, while ensuring the continued destruction of our society by the left-wing radicals relentlessly inflicting their lawless, immoral, communistic agenda upon a nation too cowardly, indoctrinated, and apathetic to fight back. Throughout history the president’s party ALWAYS loses a significant number of seats in the House and Senate during midterm elections.

The Bushes, Clinton, Obama, and Trump all lost a significant number of seats after their 1st two years in office. We have a dementia patient in chief with an approval rating below 40%, the worst inflation in 40 years, 75% of the country saying the country is on the wrong track, and politicians, generals, and media talking heads blustering about nuclear war, but we are being told by our overlords Biden’s party supposedly has picked up a seat in the Senate and has broken even in the House. It’s so laughable only a liberal arts graduate or MSNBC bimbo talking head would believe it.

Anyone who argues these results were legitimately achieved are either brainless twits or part of the election stealing scheme. The polls, which always skew positively for democrats, showed republicans leading in all the major swing state races. Overall, the republicans received 7% more national votes than they did in 2020, but somehow managed to lose every contested Senate seat and squander most of the contested House seats in swing states.

They are trying to convince me Americans voted for inflation, recession, war, CRT in our schools, gender fluidity, mutilating children, pedophilia, open borders, masking and vaxxing children, lockdowns, mandates, dead guys, and brain damaged commies. That is not what happened. They just used the exact same methods in the key races in the key states they used in 2020 to steal the elections. Why change if it works?

In the State of Florida, which implemented rational voting procedures and limited mail-in ballots, Ron DeSantis, who won in 2018 by 32,000 votes over a black, criminal, drug addict, deviant, won re-election by 1.5 million votes last week. After two years of torturing our children, encouraging murder, rape, robbery, and destroying our economy, the Democrats should have experienced massive losses in the mid-terms.

In my home state of Pennsylvania, the polls showed a clearly brain damaged stroke victim, John Fetterman, losing by 2% to TV doctor Oz after a disastrous debate performance that proved beyond a doubt the guy should be in a medical facility and not in the Senate. He cannot string ten words together in a coherent sentence. In addition to his brain damage, he ran on freeing more criminals onto the killing field streets of Philly, eliminating fracking and coal jobs, and aborting babies up until the time of birth. Somehow this freak ended up winning by 4%, according to those who control the vote count.

The mail-in ballot scam used in 2020 due to the “Covid emergency” was kept in place, even though there is no emergency, because that is how Democrats can guarantee victory forever. Over 1.2 million mail-in ballots were cast, with almost 70% from democrats and 20% from republicans. It’s a two-pronged strategy. In the corrupt urban ghettos of Philly and Pittsburgh, the mail-in votes are “harvested” by Soros paid “activists” who fill out the ballots on behalf of the busy crackheads and fentanyl fiends and do mass dumps of ballots into conveniently located lockboxes. Who knows how many vagrants, illegals, and ne’er-do-wells are paid and transported to voting sites in Philly by the democrat machine, in addition to the dead voters casting ballots.

In the suburbs you have the left-wing soccer moms and cat ladies filling out the mail-in ballots for their basement dwelling prodigy too busy gaming and watching porn to actually vote. Fetterman won this mail-in vote by over 500,000 and won the overall election by 234,000. This same formula was duplicated in Georgia, Arizona, New York, Nevada, California, and other Democrat run states. This is why they are desperate to keep Kari Lake from winning in Arizona, as she will dismantle their cheating operation.

Those in control of this entire rigged system, including republicans like McConnell and Graham, don’t want anything to change, as they enrich themselves and their globalist benefactors no matter who is elected/selected. This country and the world have become nothing more than a skimming operation, based on a Ponzi scheme, with the military as enforcers, media as propagandists, and alphabet agencies as the secret police eliminating dissenters. All voting “irregularities” will be met with silence by the captured legacy media and all who question the results will be declared crazy conspiracy theorists by the totalitarians committing the atrocities. The truth doesn’t matter, but silence about the truth does.

The globalists calling the shots want you demoralized, indebted, fearful, freezing, starving, and angry at each other, as they methodically implement their Great Reset agenda without fear of retribution or even comprehension of what their diabolical scheme entails. The chaos, uncertainty, anger, deviant behavior, and military conflict all dovetail nicely into the waning years of this Fourth Turning.

Domestic conflict which has for the most part played out in the media and political arena thus far, threatens to turn hot, as government agencies and media stoke the flames of discontent, resentment, and rage bubbling just below the surface of our civil society. There is only so far good men can be pushed before they respond with an unanticipated level of violence against their antagonists. Once this response is triggered a grim determination will engulf the land, as a fight to the finish mentality will have been initiated. Men who didn’t ask for this fight will be ready to die for their cause.

The debt, civic decay, and global disorder which catalyzed this Fourth Turning in 2008 have only grown larger and more untenable in 2022. The initial volcanic eruption of the Fed/Wall Street induced global financial crisis continues to flow along the predicted channels of distress. The economic distress is palpable, as raging inflation is destroying the standard of living for most Americans and working people across the globe. Both government and consumer debts are mounting as interest rates are rising. Financial markets have become extremely volatile, with a downward bias.

The 2023 recession will trigger much higher unemployment and crashing stock, real estate, and bond markets. This economic tsunami will exacerbate the already intense levels of social distress, as unemployed, broke, and angry Americans turn their wrath on the illegal hordes crossing our border and the politicians encouraging this invasion. Biden’s incessant demagoguery against white MAGA supporters will ultimately achieve the pushback he is instigating, and it won’t be pretty. This absurd woke agenda of glorifying deviancy and abnormality will fall by the wayside as people will be forced to worry about survival as opposed to this trivial nonsense.

The political distress we’ve been experiencing since the 2020 election shows no signs of subsiding. Our governmental institutions have lost all credibility and appearance of serving justice. The FBI and CIA have become the surveillance state arms of the Democrat party, conducting a coup against a sitting president, and falsely imprisoning protestors, journalists, and dissenters from the approved government narrative. The stealing of the last two elections has created animosity on a grand scale between opposing political factions on the local, state, and federal level.

Biden has now twice used a bait and switch maneuver of overstepping his authority and the Constitution. He and his handlers knew a national vaccine mandate was un-Constitutional, but declared it so, and intimidated employers across the country to force a medical procedure on their employees as a requirement of employment. Many were fired and many more have been injured or killed due to this false mandate. The Courts were always going to overturn this executive order, and the tyrants knew it, but did it anyway.

The latest bait and switch came to fruition on the day after the election. What a coincidence. Biden declared he was writing off $500 billion of student loan debt by transferring the burden from gender studies college graduates to plumbers, landscapers, electricians, truck drivers and other hard-working Americans. Pelosi is on tape saying Biden didn’t have the authority, but he did it anyway in a blatant illegal manner to curry the votes of the dumb indoctrinated youth. And it worked. So now that the courts have ruled it un-Constitutional, the dumb remain in debt.

The purposefully instigated feud between Trump and DeSantis is designed to spur further discord in the political arena. This is being cheered on by the left-wing media as they try to destroy republican chances to win the presidency in 2024. The real distress in politics is having a bumbling, senile, child sniffing moron as president, cackling clown as vice president, and a cadre of low IQ seditious boobs in positions of power, all on the puppet strings of Obama, Soros, and their traitorous cabal.

If there has ever been a more recklessly irresponsible and incompetent group of dullards in control of a flailing empire, I would love to know about them. If any group of imbeciles were capable of accidently triggering World War III through sheer hubris, lack of strategic foresight, inability to comprehend the consequences of their actions and sheer madness, it is those currently steering the U.S. Titanic into a global war iceberg of Russia and China. They seem determined to have the American Empire go out with a bang rather than a whimper.

With all the nuclear posturing, supplying weapons to countries provoking Russia and China, ongoing NATO proxy war with Russia, and the Middle East powder keg poised to explode if Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, or Turkey make the wrong move, the threat of a global conflagration has not been higher since World War II. One misstep by someone could create a cascade of events which could end the world as we know it.

We are all stuck in this Fourth Turning and there is no escape, except through death. Our society will be reshaped, the death of the existing social order and rebirth of a new social order might be better or worse depending upon the decisions we make as individuals and as a nation. The outcome is unknown and future uncertain. All roads appear to be leading to a real winter of death in 2023.

Most of the squalls which will coalesce into a perfect storm of death and destruction over the next few years have been set in motion and nothing any of us can do on an individual basis can reverse the course of these events. Putting our faith in political figureheads as saviors who will fight our battles is a forlorn hope. Voting has not and will not change the course we are on, which was charted by decisions and choices made since the start of this century. Individual and community efforts at preparation for the coming storm and what follows is all we can do at this point.

As Strauss & Howe cogently point out, history offers no guarantees and things could go horribly wrong in a hurry. Do not be fooled by the narratives being spun by those controlling the media messaging. The stock market going up, GDP being reported as positive, BLS telling you inflation has dropped all the way to 7.7%, Ukraine is winning, vaccines are safe, and our elections are fair and honest, is nothing more than Bernaysian propaganda designed to control and manipulate you. There are bad people doing bad things to the people of this world and only good people can defeat them.

You need to find people you can trust and make plans to help each other through the coming winter of death. Being a loner during a Fourth Turning is not ideal. If you can’t raise your own food, befriend a farmer. Make sure you are sufficiently armed and do not trust anyone from the government or beholden to the government for their living. Become physically and mentally prepared for what is coming. Reduce your taxable footprint and help starve the machine.

Keep everything in perspective and decide what is really important. Biden, Gates, Soros, and Schwab are nothing more than human flesh. They will die and meet their maker, just as we all will. Act as if the decisions and deeds you take in the next few years will determine how your children and their children will view your legacy. Will you make them proud or ashamed?

The choice is yours. There is a foreboding chill in the air as the storm clouds gather.

“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 11/16/2022 - 16:20

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Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says “Copper’s Time Is Now”

Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says "Copper’s Time Is Now"

After languishing for the past two years in a tight range despite recurring…

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Copper Soars, Iron Ore Tumbles As Goldman Says "Copper's Time Is Now"

After languishing for the past two years in a tight range despite recurring speculation about declining global supply, copper has finally broken out, surging to the highest price in the past year, just shy of $9,000 a ton as supply cuts hit the market; At the same time the price of the world's "other" most important mined commodity has diverged, as iron ore has tumbled amid growing demand headwinds out of China's comatose housing sector where not even ghost cities are being built any more.

Copper surged almost 5% this week, ending a months-long spell of inertia, as investors focused on risks to supply at various global mines and smelters. As Bloomberg adds, traders also warmed to the idea that the worst of a global downturn is in the past, particularly for metals like copper that are increasingly used in electric vehicles and renewables.

Yet the commodity crash of recent years is hardly over, as signs of the headwinds in traditional industrial sectors are still all too obvious in the iron ore market, where futures fell below $100 a ton for the first time in seven months on Friday as investors bet that China’s years-long property crisis will run through 2024, keeping a lid on demand.

Indeed, while the mood surrounding copper has turned almost euphoric, sentiment on iron ore has soured since the conclusion of the latest National People’s Congress in Beijing, where the CCP set a 5% goal for economic growth, but offered few new measures that would boost infrastructure or other construction-intensive sectors.

As a result, the main steelmaking ingredient has shed more than 30% since early January as hopes of a meaningful revival in construction activity faded. Loss-making steel mills are buying less ore, and stockpiles are piling up at Chinese ports. The latest drop will embolden those who believe that the effects of President Xi Jinping’s property crackdown still have significant room to run, and that last year’s rally in iron ore may have been a false dawn.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, on Friday there were fresh signs that weakness in China’s industrial economy is hitting the copper market too, with stockpiles tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange surging to the highest level since the early days of the pandemic. The hope is that headwinds in traditional industrial areas will be offset by an ongoing surge in usage in electric vehicles and renewables.

And while industrial conditions in Europe and the US also look soft, there’s growing optimism about copper usage in India, where rising investment has helped fuel blowout growth rates of more than 8% — making it the fastest-growing major economy.

In any case, with the demand side of the equation still questionable, the main catalyst behind copper’s powerful rally is an unexpected tightening in global mine supplies, driven mainly by last year’s closure of a giant mine in Panama (discussed here), but there are also growing worries about output in Zambia, which is facing an El Niño-induced power crisis.

On Wednesday, copper prices jumped on huge volumes after smelters in China held a crisis meeting on how to cope with a sharp drop in processing fees following disruptions to supplies of mined ore. The group stopped short of coordinated production cuts, but pledged to re-arrange maintenance work, reduce runs and delay the startup of new projects. In the coming weeks investors will be watching Shanghai exchange inventories closely to gauge both the strength of demand and the extent of any capacity curtailments.

“The increase in SHFE stockpiles has been bigger than we’d anticipated, but we expect to see them coming down over the next few weeks,” Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone. “If the pace of the inventory builds doesn’t start to slow, investors will start to question whether smelters are actually cutting and whether the impact of weak construction activity is starting to weigh more heavily on the market.”

* * *

Few have been as happy with the recent surge in copper prices as Goldman's commodity team, where copper has long been a preferred trade (even if it may have cost the former team head Jeff Currie his job due to his unbridled enthusiasm for copper in the past two years which saw many hedge fund clients suffer major losses).

As Goldman's Nicholas Snowdon writes in a note titled "Copper's time is now" (available to pro subscribers in the usual place)...

... there has been a "turn in the industrial cycle." Specifically according to the Goldman analyst, after a prolonged downturn, "incremental evidence now points to a bottoming out in the industrial cycle, with the global manufacturing PMI in expansion for the first time since September 2022." As a result, Goldman now expects copper to rise to $10,000/t by year-end and then $12,000/t by end of Q1-25.’

Here are the details:

Previous inflexions in global manufacturing cycles have been associated with subsequent sustained industrial metals upside, with copper and aluminium rising on average 25% and 9% over the next 12 months. Whilst seasonal surpluses have so far limited a tightening alignment at a micro level, we expect deficit inflexions to play out from quarter end, particularly for metals with severe supply binds. Supplemented by the influence of anticipated Fed easing ahead in a non-recessionary growth setting, another historically positive performance factor for metals, this should support further upside ahead with copper the headline act in this regard.

Goldman then turns to what it calls China's "green policy put":

Much of the recent focus on the “Two Sessions” event centred on the lack of significant broad stimulus, and in particular the limited property support. In our view it would be wrong – just as in 2022 and 2023 – to assume that this will result in weak onshore metals demand. Beijing’s emphasis on rapid growth in the metals intensive green economy, as an offset to property declines, continues to act as a policy put for green metals demand. After last year’s strong trends, evidence year-to-date is again supportive with aluminium and copper apparent demand rising 17% and 12% y/y respectively. Moreover, the potential for a ‘cash for clunkers’ initiative could provide meaningful right tail risk to that healthy demand base case. Yet there are also clear metal losers in this divergent policy setting, with ongoing pressure on property related steel demand generating recent sharp iron ore downside.

Meanwhile, Snowdon believes that the driver behind Goldman's long-running bullish view on copper - a global supply shock - continues:

Copper’s supply shock progresses. The metal with most significant upside potential is copper, in our view. The supply shock which began with aggressive concentrate destocking and then sharp mine supply downgrades last year, has now advanced to an increasing bind on metal production, as reflected in this week's China smelter supply rationing signal. With continued positive momentum in China's copper demand, a healthy refined import trend should generate a substantial ex-China refined deficit this year. With LME stocks having halved from Q4 peak, China’s imminent seasonal demand inflection should accelerate a path into extreme tightness by H2. Structural supply underinvestment, best reflected in peak mine supply we expect next year, implies that demand destruction will need to be the persistent solver on scarcity, an effect requiring substantially higher pricing than current, in our view. In this context, we maintain our view that the copper price will surge into next year (GSe 2025 $15,000/t average), expecting copper to rise to $10,000/t by year-end and then $12,000/t by end of Q1-25’

Another reason why Goldman is doubling down on its bullish copper outlook: gold.

The sharp rally in gold price since the beginning of March has ended the period of consolidation that had been present since late December. Whilst the initial catalyst for the break higher came from a (gold) supportive turn in US data and real rates, the move has been significantly amplified by short term systematic buying, which suggests less sticky upside. In this context, we expect gold to consolidate for now, with our economists near term view on rates and the dollar suggesting limited near-term catalysts for further upside momentum. Yet, a substantive retracement lower will also likely be limited by resilience in physical buying channels. Nonetheless, in the midterm we continue to hold a constructive view on gold underpinned by persistent strength in EM demand as well as eventual Fed easing, which should crucially reactivate the largely for now dormant ETF buying channel. In this context, we increase our average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,090/toz to $2,180/toz, targeting a move to $2,300/toz by year-end.

Much more in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 14:25

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The millions of people not looking for work in the UK may be prioritising education, health and freedom

Economic inactivity is not always the worst option.

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Taking time out. pathdoc/Shutterstock

Around one in five British people of working age (16-64) are now outside the labour market. Neither in work nor looking for work, they are officially labelled as “economically inactive”.

Some of those 9.2 million people are in education, with many students not active in the labour market because they are studying full-time. Others are older workers who have chosen to take early retirement.

But that still leaves a large number who are not part of the labour market because they are unable to work. And one key driver of economic inactivity in recent years has been illness.

This increase in economic inactivity – which has grown since before the pandemic – is not just harming the economy, but also indicative of a deeper health crisis.

For those suffering ill health, there are real constraints on access to work. People with health-limiting conditions cannot just slot into jobs that are available. They need help to address the illnesses they have, and to re-engage with work through organisations offering supportive and healthy work environments.

And for other groups, such as stay-at-home parents, businesses need to offer flexible work arrangements and subsidised childcare to support the transition from economic inactivity into work.

The government has a role to play too. Most obviously, it could increase investment in the NHS. Rising levels of poor health are linked to years of under-investment in the health sector and economic inactivity will not be tackled without more funding.

Carrots and sticks

For the time being though, the UK government appears to prefer an approach which mixes carrots and sticks. In the March 2024 budget, for example, the chancellor cut national insurance by 2p as a way of “making work pay”.

But it is unclear whether small tax changes like this will have any effect on attracting the economically inactive back into work.

Jeremy Hunt also extended free childcare. But again, questions remain over whether this is sufficient to remove barriers to work for those with parental responsibilities. The high cost and lack of availability of childcare remain key weaknesses in the UK economy.

The benefit system meanwhile has been designed to push people into work. Benefits in the UK remain relatively ungenerous and hard to access compared with other rich countries. But labour shortages won’t be solved by simply forcing the economically inactive into work, because not all of them are ready or able to comply.

It is also worth noting that work itself may be a cause of bad health. The notion of “bad work” – work that does not pay enough and is unrewarding in other ways – can lead to economic inactivity.

There is also evidence that as work has become more intensive over recent decades, for some people, work itself has become a health risk.

The pandemic showed us how certain groups of workers (including so-called “essential workers”) suffered more ill health due to their greater exposure to COVID. But there are broader trends towards lower quality work that predate the pandemic, and these trends suggest improving job quality is an important step towards tackling the underlying causes of economic inactivity.

Freedom

Another big section of the economically active population who cannot be ignored are those who have retired early and deliberately left the labour market behind. These are people who want and value – and crucially, can afford – a life without work.

Here, the effects of the pandemic can be seen again. During those years of lockdowns, furlough and remote working, many of us reassessed our relationship with our jobs. Changed attitudes towards work among some (mostly older) workers can explain why they are no longer in the labour market and why they may be unresponsive to job offers of any kind.

Sign on railings supporting NHS staff during pandemic.
COVID made many people reassess their priorities. Alex Yeung/Shutterstock

And maybe it is from this viewpoint that we should ultimately be looking at economic inactivity – that it is actually a sign of progress. That it represents a move towards freedom from the drudgery of work and the ability of some people to live as they wish.

There are utopian visions of the future, for example, which suggest that individual and collective freedom could be dramatically increased by paying people a universal basic income.

In the meantime, for plenty of working age people, economic inactivity is a direct result of ill health and sickness. So it may be that the levels of economic inactivity right now merely show how far we are from being a society which actually supports its citizens’ wellbeing.

David Spencer has received funding from the ESRC.

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Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills

Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills

By Autumn Spredemann of The Epoch Times

Tens of thousands of illegal…

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Illegal Immigrants Leave US Hospitals With Billions In Unpaid Bills

By Autumn Spredemann of The Epoch Times

Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants are flooding into U.S. hospitals for treatment and leaving billions in uncompensated health care costs in their wake.

The House Committee on Homeland Security recently released a report illustrating that from the estimated $451 billion in annual costs stemming from the U.S. border crisis, a significant portion is going to health care for illegal immigrants.

With the majority of the illegal immigrant population lacking any kind of medical insurance, hospitals and government welfare programs such as Medicaid are feeling the weight of these unanticipated costs.

Apprehensions of illegal immigrants at the U.S. border have jumped 48 percent since the record in fiscal year 2021 and nearly tripled since fiscal year 2019, according to Customs and Border Protection data.

Last year broke a new record high for illegal border crossings, surpassing more than 3.2 million apprehensions.

And with that sea of humanity comes the need for health care and, in most cases, the inability to pay for it.

In January, CEO of Denver Health Donna Lynne told reporters that 8,000 illegal immigrants made roughly 20,000 visits to the city’s health system in 2023.

The total bill for uncompensated care costs last year to the system totaled $140 million, said Dane Roper, public information officer for Denver Health. More than $10 million of it was attributed to “care for new immigrants,” he told The Epoch Times.

Though the amount of debt assigned to illegal immigrants is a fraction of the total, uncompensated care costs in the Denver Health system have risen dramatically over the past few years.

The total uncompensated costs in 2020 came to $60 million, Mr. Roper said. In 2022, the number doubled, hitting $120 million.

He also said their city hospitals are treating issues such as “respiratory illnesses, GI [gastro-intenstinal] illnesses, dental disease, and some common chronic illnesses such as asthma and diabetes.”

“The perspective we’ve been trying to emphasize all along is that providing healthcare services for an influx of new immigrants who are unable to pay for their care is adding additional strain to an already significant uncompensated care burden,” Mr. Roper said.

He added this is why a local, state, and federal response to the needs of the new illegal immigrant population is “so important.”

Colorado is far from the only state struggling with a trail of unpaid hospital bills.

EMS medics with the Houston Fire Department transport a Mexican woman the hospital in Houston on Aug. 12, 2020. (John Moore/Getty Images)

Dr. Robert Trenschel, CEO of the Yuma Regional Medical Center situated on the Arizona–Mexico border, said on average, illegal immigrants cost up to three times more in human resources to resolve their cases and provide a safe discharge.

“Some [illegal] migrants come with minor ailments, but many of them come in with significant disease,” Dr. Trenschel said during a congressional hearing last year.

“We’ve had migrant patients on dialysis, cardiac catheterization, and in need of heart surgery. Many are very sick.”

He said many illegal immigrants who enter the country and need medical assistance end up staying in the ICU ward for 60 days or more.

A large portion of the patients are pregnant women who’ve had little to no prenatal treatment. This has resulted in an increase in babies being born that require neonatal care for 30 days or longer.

Dr. Trenschel told The Epoch Times last year that illegal immigrants were overrunning healthcare services in his town, leaving the hospital with $26 million in unpaid medical bills in just 12 months.

ER Duty to Care

The Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act of 1986 requires that public hospitals participating in Medicare “must medically screen all persons seeking emergency care … regardless of payment method or insurance status.”

The numbers are difficult to gauge as the policy position of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is that it “will not require hospital staff to ask patients directly about their citizenship or immigration status.”

In southern California, again close to the border with Mexico, some hospitals are struggling with an influx of illegal immigrants.

American patients are enduring longer wait times for doctor appointments due to a nursing shortage in the state, two health care professionals told The Epoch Times in January.

A health care worker at a hospital in Southern California, who asked not to be named for fear of losing her job, told The Epoch Times that “the entire health care system is just being bombarded” by a steady stream of illegal immigrants.

“Our healthcare system is so overwhelmed, and then add on top of that tuberculosis, COVID-19, and other diseases from all over the world,” she said.

A Salvadorian man is aided by medical workers after cutting his leg while trying to jump on a truck in Matias Romero, Mexico, on Nov. 2, 2018. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

A newly-enacted law in California provides free healthcare for all illegal immigrants residing in the state. The law could cost taxpayers between $3 billion and $6 billion per year, according to recent estimates by state and federal lawmakers.

In New York, where the illegal immigration crisis has manifested most notably beyond the southern border, city and state officials have long been accommodating of illegal immigrants’ healthcare costs.

Since June 2014, when then-mayor Bill de Blasio set up The Task Force on Immigrant Health Care Access, New York City has worked to expand avenues for illegal immigrants to get free health care.

“New York City has a moral duty to ensure that all its residents have meaningful access to needed health care, regardless of their immigration status or ability to pay,” Mr. de Blasio stated in a 2015 report.

The report notes that in 2013, nearly 64 percent of illegal immigrants were uninsured. Since then, tens of thousands of illegal immigrants have settled in the city.

“The uninsured rate for undocumented immigrants is more than three times that of other noncitizens in New York City (20 percent) and more than six times greater than the uninsured rate for the rest of the city (10 percent),” the report states.

The report states that because healthcare providers don’t ask patients about documentation status, the task force lacks “data specific to undocumented patients.”

Some health care providers say a big part of the issue is that without a clear path to insurance or payment for non-emergency services, illegal immigrants are going to the hospital due to a lack of options.

“It’s insane, and it has been for years at this point,” Dana, a Texas emergency room nurse who asked to have her full name omitted, told The Epoch Times.

Working for a major hospital system in the greater Houston area, Dana has seen “a zillion” migrants pass through under her watch with “no end in sight.” She said many who are illegal immigrants arrive with treatable illnesses that require simple antibiotics. “Not a lot of GPs [general practitioners] will see you if you can’t pay and don’t have insurance.”

She said the “undocumented crowd” tends to arrive with a lot of the same conditions. Many find their way to Houston not long after crossing the southern border. Some of the common health issues Dana encounters include dehydration, unhealed fractures, respiratory illnesses, stomach ailments, and pregnancy-related concerns.

“This isn’t a new problem, it’s just worse now,” Dana said.

Emergency room nurses and EMTs tend to patients in hallways at the Houston Methodist The Woodlands Hospital in Houston on Aug. 18, 2021. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Medicaid Factor

One of the main government healthcare resources illegal immigrants use is Medicaid.

All those who don’t qualify for regular Medicaid are eligible for Emergency Medicaid, regardless of immigration status. By doing this, the program helps pay for the cost of uncompensated care bills at qualifying hospitals.

However, some loopholes allow access to the regular Medicaid benefits. “Qualified noncitizens” who haven’t been granted legal status within five years still qualify if they’re listed as a refugee, an asylum seeker, or a Cuban or Haitian national.

Yet the lion’s share of Medicaid usage by illegal immigrants still comes through state-level benefits and emergency medical treatment.

A Congressional report highlighted data from the CMS, which showed total Medicaid costs for “emergency services for undocumented aliens” in fiscal year 2021 surpassed $7 billion, and totaled more than $5 billion in fiscal 2022.

Both years represent a significant spike from the $3 billion in fiscal 2020.

An employee working with Medicaid who asked to be referred to only as Jennifer out of concern for her job, told The Epoch Times that at a state level, it’s easy for an illegal immigrant to access the program benefits.

Jennifer said that when exceptions are sent from states to CMS for approval, “denial is actually super rare. It’s usually always approved.”

She also said it comes as no surprise that many of the states with the highest amount of Medicaid spending are sanctuary states, which tend to have policies and laws that shield illegal immigrants from federal immigration authorities.

Moreover, Jennifer said there are ways for states to get around CMS guidelines. “It’s not easy, but it can and has been done.”

The first generation of illegal immigrants who arrive to the United States tend to be healthy enough to pass any pre-screenings, but Jennifer has observed that the subsequent generations tend to be sicker and require more access to care. If a family is illegally present, they tend to use Emergency Medicaid or nothing at all.

The Epoch Times asked Medicaid Services to provide the most recent data for the total uncompensated care that hospitals have reported. The agency didn’t respond.

Continue reading over at The Epoch Times

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 09:45

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