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Quinn: You Can’t Escape The Fourth Turning’s Winter Of Death

Quinn: You Can’t Escape The Fourth Turning’s Winter Of Death

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“Reflect on what happens…

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Quinn: You Can't Escape The Fourth Turning's Winter Of Death

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance.

“Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

It was less than a year ago on December 16, 2021 when our dementia patient in chief was instructed by his handlers to lie, obfuscate and demonize critical thinking Americans who refused to become victims of the Big Pharma, Fauci promoted, untested, unsafe, ineffective gene therapy by declaring “we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death for the unvaccinated — for themselves, their families and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm”. Biden’s vaccine mandates were overturned in the courts. The unvaccinated did not die from Covid. Very few people died from Covid. Some really old and infirm people on death’s doorstep died with Covid. Some very unhealthy obese people died with Covid. But even 95% of the old and unhealthy survived Covid.

Virtually no one under 70 years old died from Covid. Biden was lying. Fauci was lying. Walensky was lying. Gates was lying. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla was lying. Their paid-off medical industry was lying. Their highly compensated corporate legacy media talking heads were lying. Captured politicians were lying. The entire Covid scheme was nothing more than weaponizing the annual flu through fear propaganda, a billion-dollar advertising campaign, and enacting totalitarian measures on the world as part of the Great Reset Build Back Better New World Order plot orchestrated by our globalist oligarch overlords.

Every Fourth Turning has its own dynamics, chaotic current, political nuances, general confusion, antagonists, and event driven upheaval. We are currently in the 14th year of this Crisis and Biden’s predicted winter of death for the unvaccinated didn’t happen and death and illness is striking down the vaxxed in far greater numbers than the unvaxxed. The perpetrators of the pandemic exercise to see how far people of the developed world could be pushed, abused, and turned into subservient vassals of the state are now demanding amnesty for themselves and their co-conspirators, as the consequences of their murderous escapades become impossible to cover-up and conceal.

Real data from the real world, not from their skewed manipulated models, is piling up, and despite the media’s tireless efforts to ignore, censor, and misinform, the truth is seeping out through the diligent digging of those who were right from the very outset of this scamdemic.

The complete and utter failure of these so-called vaccines has been evident from the very outset, as infections, hospitalizations, and deaths increased after the vaccines were rolled out as the savior of all mankind. The vaccines performed so atrociously the CDC had to change the definition of vaccine in order to obscure what a failure they proved to be. The narrative police can obfuscate and attempt to revise history, but the lies are all documented and available for anyone to see and hear.

Fauci said masks don’t work. Fauci said the vaccines would keep you from getting Covid, transmitting Covid, being hospitalized from Covid, and dying from Covid. Walensky, Birx, Biden, Trump, and a slew of other “medical experts”, Hollywood stars, famous athletes, journalists, and Sesame Street characters all mouthed the same “safe and effective” tripe non-stop about a vaccine that is provably not safe and not effective. The few brave medical professionals who dared question the narrative and provide alternative treatments (ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine) were censored, scorned, ridiculed, banned, de-licensed, de-platformed, and had their careers destroyed.

The initial anecdotal evidence about the vaccines being useless in protecting anyone from the flu is now backed up by hundreds of real scientific studies (not fake studies bought by Big Pharma) showing boosters having negative efficacy as these multiple shots degrade people’s immune systems, just as doctors like Korry, Malone, McCullough, Vanden Bosche, Cole, Zelenko, and many others warned would happen. Anti-dependent Enhancement (ADE) is now happening in millions of those who have gotten vaxxed. Young people dying suddenly from heart attacks, myocarditis now becoming common in young men, athletes collapsing, cancer being activated by the spike protein, and the all-cause mortality skyrocketing across the world can no longer be denied.

Last week Service Corp Intl., the largest funeral home operator in the world, reported earnings far higher than they expected because non-Covid deaths were much higher than expected. The CEO said they expected 1% growth over the 3rd quarter of 2019 and ended up with 15% unexpected growth. Lincoln National, one of the largest life insurance companies in the country, reported terrible financial results as life insurance payouts on those between 18 and 64 years old soared 163%. Both companies said these were virtually all non-Covid deaths.

As these horrific trends continue, the true impact of these Big Pharma multi-billion-dollar profit potions of death will become unequivocally apparent. Biden will get his winter of death, but it won’t be the unvaxxed dying. With 250 million Americans and another 5 billion people around the world having their immune systems weakened by the Big Pharma gene altering money makers, the coming winter months will be problematic for millions of the duped. Expect hospitals to be overwhelmed and the media to remain silent about the true cause. As more children start dying suddenly, retribution against the murderers Fauci, Bourla, Walensky and a passel of pernicious pandemic protagonists will be on the minds of those who have lost children, spouses, and other loved ones.

Anyone expecting the domestic or international environment to improve in the near future are foolish and living in a state of denial. Fourth Turnings have ebbs and flows, but the intensity never diminishes until distinct winners and losers are patently unmistakable. Think Yorktown, Appomattox, and Hiroshima. All three previous American Fourth Turnings ended after all-out war, bloody conflict, and death on a grand scale. There is absolutely nothing going on the world today indicating we are not headed for a similar bloody outcome of death on an epic magnitude.

Biden’s handlers have him conducting a proxy war in the Ukraine against Russia, blowing up their pipelines, bridges, and war ships. Funneling $80 billion, with more on the way, to Zelensky and the most corrupt country on the planet is an act of war. At the same time, Biden’s amateur hour advisors continue to instigate China by actively supporting Taiwan independence. Alienating countries constituting half the population of earth is a recipe for global conflict.

The blowing up of the Nordstream pipeline by the U.S. and their U.K. co-conspirators has sentenced Germany to a winter of deprivation and desperation. German citizens will die this winter due to the actions of an American Empire thrashing about in its final death throes of debt, deception, degradation, and denial. This man made global catastrophe of supply chain calamity, raging inflation, energy crisis, and food shortages has been purposefully initiated by malevolent men who treat mankind like pawns in their game of global chess. The global reset is real.

Schwab, Gates, Soros, Obama, Biden, Clinton, and their cohort of Davos billionaires, Wall Street shysters, and satanic legions will stop at nothing to implement their agenda of turning the world into a techno-gulag where they control the population through social credit systems, human microchips, 24/7 surveillance, and central bank digital currencies. The peasants will own nothing and eat bugs, told they are happy under threat of the truncheon, while their overlords fly private jets, eat, and live like kings, owning everything and gleeful at their ability to control the world through psychological and technological manipulation of the willfully ignorant masses.

Domestically, the U.S. is contending with raging inflation, particularly in food, energy, shelter, and medical care – just the things needed by the middle class and poor to live their lives. The reported inflation of 7% to 8% is a lie and everyone knows it, even if they are unaware of the Fed/BLS bullshit “adjustments” which purposely reduce the true level of inflation by 5% to 8%. The manipulation of the data is to hide the truth from the masses.

Inflation is actually higher than it was in the early 1980’s when Volker needed to jack the Fed Funds rate to 18% to tame the raging inflation. Tough guy Powell, described by the feckless mainstream media as the new Volker, currently has the Fed Funds rate at 3.75%. Hysterically, the corrupt politicians and Wall Street cabal are demanding a halt to these “devastating” interest rate increases. And their demands will be met in 2023.

Our empire of debt ($31.2 trillion and rising by $6 billion per day) can’t handle much higher rates. Interest on the national debt was $399 billion in FY22, up from under $300 billion in FY16, and is now on track to exceed $700 billion in FY24. Powell and the Fed are now trapped by their own reckless kowtowing to their Wall Street owners and spineless political hack swamp rats in D.C.

They unleashed this inflationary wave across the globe purposely, while Biden and his handlers have exacerbated it with their green new deal and sanctions on Russian fuel, food, and fertilizer, leading to a looming global disaster on our doorstep. When people in 3rd world countries can’t afford food, they storm presidential palaces and hang their leaders. Revolutions have already begun across the world.

The middle and lower classes in the U.S. have already depleted their savings and maxed out their credit cards. They now need to choose whether they can eat, pay the utility bill, or pay for their prescription. Many have lived above their means, with McMansions “bought” with a $600,000 mortgage, $70,000 vehicles leased or financed over 7 years, and luxurious vacations on one of their 10 credit cards.

The poor didn’t benefit from the good times, but they are bearing the major burden of the food and energy inflation. The chickens have now come home to roost, and the wave of foreclosures, auto repossessions and credit card defaults will begin in earnest this winter as corporations across the land begin laying off millions. The downward spiral has begun and can’t be reversed.

The mid-term elections, which will go on until the democrat party of chaos is able to manufacture enough votes to retain the House, is being used as another psy-op to demoralize the masses, produce more civil strife and chaos, while ensuring the continued destruction of our society by the left-wing radicals relentlessly inflicting their lawless, immoral, communistic agenda upon a nation too cowardly, indoctrinated, and apathetic to fight back. Throughout history the president’s party ALWAYS loses a significant number of seats in the House and Senate during midterm elections.

The Bushes, Clinton, Obama, and Trump all lost a significant number of seats after their 1st two years in office. We have a dementia patient in chief with an approval rating below 40%, the worst inflation in 40 years, 75% of the country saying the country is on the wrong track, and politicians, generals, and media talking heads blustering about nuclear war, but we are being told by our overlords Biden’s party supposedly has picked up a seat in the Senate and has broken even in the House. It’s so laughable only a liberal arts graduate or MSNBC bimbo talking head would believe it.

Anyone who argues these results were legitimately achieved are either brainless twits or part of the election stealing scheme. The polls, which always skew positively for democrats, showed republicans leading in all the major swing state races. Overall, the republicans received 7% more national votes than they did in 2020, but somehow managed to lose every contested Senate seat and squander most of the contested House seats in swing states.

They are trying to convince me Americans voted for inflation, recession, war, CRT in our schools, gender fluidity, mutilating children, pedophilia, open borders, masking and vaxxing children, lockdowns, mandates, dead guys, and brain damaged commies. That is not what happened. They just used the exact same methods in the key races in the key states they used in 2020 to steal the elections. Why change if it works?

In the State of Florida, which implemented rational voting procedures and limited mail-in ballots, Ron DeSantis, who won in 2018 by 32,000 votes over a black, criminal, drug addict, deviant, won re-election by 1.5 million votes last week. After two years of torturing our children, encouraging murder, rape, robbery, and destroying our economy, the Democrats should have experienced massive losses in the mid-terms.

In my home state of Pennsylvania, the polls showed a clearly brain damaged stroke victim, John Fetterman, losing by 2% to TV doctor Oz after a disastrous debate performance that proved beyond a doubt the guy should be in a medical facility and not in the Senate. He cannot string ten words together in a coherent sentence. In addition to his brain damage, he ran on freeing more criminals onto the killing field streets of Philly, eliminating fracking and coal jobs, and aborting babies up until the time of birth. Somehow this freak ended up winning by 4%, according to those who control the vote count.

The mail-in ballot scam used in 2020 due to the “Covid emergency” was kept in place, even though there is no emergency, because that is how Democrats can guarantee victory forever. Over 1.2 million mail-in ballots were cast, with almost 70% from democrats and 20% from republicans. It’s a two-pronged strategy. In the corrupt urban ghettos of Philly and Pittsburgh, the mail-in votes are “harvested” by Soros paid “activists” who fill out the ballots on behalf of the busy crackheads and fentanyl fiends and do mass dumps of ballots into conveniently located lockboxes. Who knows how many vagrants, illegals, and ne’er-do-wells are paid and transported to voting sites in Philly by the democrat machine, in addition to the dead voters casting ballots.

In the suburbs you have the left-wing soccer moms and cat ladies filling out the mail-in ballots for their basement dwelling prodigy too busy gaming and watching porn to actually vote. Fetterman won this mail-in vote by over 500,000 and won the overall election by 234,000. This same formula was duplicated in Georgia, Arizona, New York, Nevada, California, and other Democrat run states. This is why they are desperate to keep Kari Lake from winning in Arizona, as she will dismantle their cheating operation.

Those in control of this entire rigged system, including republicans like McConnell and Graham, don’t want anything to change, as they enrich themselves and their globalist benefactors no matter who is elected/selected. This country and the world have become nothing more than a skimming operation, based on a Ponzi scheme, with the military as enforcers, media as propagandists, and alphabet agencies as the secret police eliminating dissenters. All voting “irregularities” will be met with silence by the captured legacy media and all who question the results will be declared crazy conspiracy theorists by the totalitarians committing the atrocities. The truth doesn’t matter, but silence about the truth does.

The globalists calling the shots want you demoralized, indebted, fearful, freezing, starving, and angry at each other, as they methodically implement their Great Reset agenda without fear of retribution or even comprehension of what their diabolical scheme entails. The chaos, uncertainty, anger, deviant behavior, and military conflict all dovetail nicely into the waning years of this Fourth Turning.

Domestic conflict which has for the most part played out in the media and political arena thus far, threatens to turn hot, as government agencies and media stoke the flames of discontent, resentment, and rage bubbling just below the surface of our civil society. There is only so far good men can be pushed before they respond with an unanticipated level of violence against their antagonists. Once this response is triggered a grim determination will engulf the land, as a fight to the finish mentality will have been initiated. Men who didn’t ask for this fight will be ready to die for their cause.

The debt, civic decay, and global disorder which catalyzed this Fourth Turning in 2008 have only grown larger and more untenable in 2022. The initial volcanic eruption of the Fed/Wall Street induced global financial crisis continues to flow along the predicted channels of distress. The economic distress is palpable, as raging inflation is destroying the standard of living for most Americans and working people across the globe. Both government and consumer debts are mounting as interest rates are rising. Financial markets have become extremely volatile, with a downward bias.

The 2023 recession will trigger much higher unemployment and crashing stock, real estate, and bond markets. This economic tsunami will exacerbate the already intense levels of social distress, as unemployed, broke, and angry Americans turn their wrath on the illegal hordes crossing our border and the politicians encouraging this invasion. Biden’s incessant demagoguery against white MAGA supporters will ultimately achieve the pushback he is instigating, and it won’t be pretty. This absurd woke agenda of glorifying deviancy and abnormality will fall by the wayside as people will be forced to worry about survival as opposed to this trivial nonsense.

The political distress we’ve been experiencing since the 2020 election shows no signs of subsiding. Our governmental institutions have lost all credibility and appearance of serving justice. The FBI and CIA have become the surveillance state arms of the Democrat party, conducting a coup against a sitting president, and falsely imprisoning protestors, journalists, and dissenters from the approved government narrative. The stealing of the last two elections has created animosity on a grand scale between opposing political factions on the local, state, and federal level.

Biden has now twice used a bait and switch maneuver of overstepping his authority and the Constitution. He and his handlers knew a national vaccine mandate was un-Constitutional, but declared it so, and intimidated employers across the country to force a medical procedure on their employees as a requirement of employment. Many were fired and many more have been injured or killed due to this false mandate. The Courts were always going to overturn this executive order, and the tyrants knew it, but did it anyway.

The latest bait and switch came to fruition on the day after the election. What a coincidence. Biden declared he was writing off $500 billion of student loan debt by transferring the burden from gender studies college graduates to plumbers, landscapers, electricians, truck drivers and other hard-working Americans. Pelosi is on tape saying Biden didn’t have the authority, but he did it anyway in a blatant illegal manner to curry the votes of the dumb indoctrinated youth. And it worked. So now that the courts have ruled it un-Constitutional, the dumb remain in debt.

The purposefully instigated feud between Trump and DeSantis is designed to spur further discord in the political arena. This is being cheered on by the left-wing media as they try to destroy republican chances to win the presidency in 2024. The real distress in politics is having a bumbling, senile, child sniffing moron as president, cackling clown as vice president, and a cadre of low IQ seditious boobs in positions of power, all on the puppet strings of Obama, Soros, and their traitorous cabal.

If there has ever been a more recklessly irresponsible and incompetent group of dullards in control of a flailing empire, I would love to know about them. If any group of imbeciles were capable of accidently triggering World War III through sheer hubris, lack of strategic foresight, inability to comprehend the consequences of their actions and sheer madness, it is those currently steering the U.S. Titanic into a global war iceberg of Russia and China. They seem determined to have the American Empire go out with a bang rather than a whimper.

With all the nuclear posturing, supplying weapons to countries provoking Russia and China, ongoing NATO proxy war with Russia, and the Middle East powder keg poised to explode if Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, or Turkey make the wrong move, the threat of a global conflagration has not been higher since World War II. One misstep by someone could create a cascade of events which could end the world as we know it.

We are all stuck in this Fourth Turning and there is no escape, except through death. Our society will be reshaped, the death of the existing social order and rebirth of a new social order might be better or worse depending upon the decisions we make as individuals and as a nation. The outcome is unknown and future uncertain. All roads appear to be leading to a real winter of death in 2023.

Most of the squalls which will coalesce into a perfect storm of death and destruction over the next few years have been set in motion and nothing any of us can do on an individual basis can reverse the course of these events. Putting our faith in political figureheads as saviors who will fight our battles is a forlorn hope. Voting has not and will not change the course we are on, which was charted by decisions and choices made since the start of this century. Individual and community efforts at preparation for the coming storm and what follows is all we can do at this point.

As Strauss & Howe cogently point out, history offers no guarantees and things could go horribly wrong in a hurry. Do not be fooled by the narratives being spun by those controlling the media messaging. The stock market going up, GDP being reported as positive, BLS telling you inflation has dropped all the way to 7.7%, Ukraine is winning, vaccines are safe, and our elections are fair and honest, is nothing more than Bernaysian propaganda designed to control and manipulate you. There are bad people doing bad things to the people of this world and only good people can defeat them.

You need to find people you can trust and make plans to help each other through the coming winter of death. Being a loner during a Fourth Turning is not ideal. If you can’t raise your own food, befriend a farmer. Make sure you are sufficiently armed and do not trust anyone from the government or beholden to the government for their living. Become physically and mentally prepared for what is coming. Reduce your taxable footprint and help starve the machine.

Keep everything in perspective and decide what is really important. Biden, Gates, Soros, and Schwab are nothing more than human flesh. They will die and meet their maker, just as we all will. Act as if the decisions and deeds you take in the next few years will determine how your children and their children will view your legacy. Will you make them proud or ashamed?

The choice is yours. There is a foreboding chill in the air as the storm clouds gather.

“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 11/16/2022 - 16:20

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EY Eyes Comeback for Biopharma M&A

EY noted that the total value of biopharma M&A in 2022 was $88 billion, down 15% from $104 billion in 2021. The $88 billion accounted for most of the…

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A recent trickle of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) announcements in the billion-dollar-and-up range suggests that biopharma may be ready to resume dealmaking this year—although the value and number of deals isn’t expected to return to the highs seen just before the pandemic.

2022 ended with a handful of 10- and 11-figure M&A deals, led by Amgen’s $27.8 billion buyout of Horizon Therapeutics, announced December 13. The dealmaking continued into January with three buyouts announced on the first day of the recent J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference: AstraZeneca agreed to acquire CinCor Pharma for up to $1.8 billion, while Chiesi Farmaceutici agreed to shell out up to $1.48 billion cash for Amryt, and Ipsen Group said it will purchase Albireo Pharma for $952 million-plus.

Biopharmas generated about $88 billion in M&A deals in 2022, down 15% from $104 billion in 2021. The $88 billion accounted for most of the $135 billion in 124 deals in the life sciences. The number of biopharma deals fell 17%, to 75 deals from 90. The other 49 deals totaling $47 million consisted of transactions in “medtech,” which includes diagnostics developers and companies specializing in “virtual health” such as telemedicine. [EY]
EY—the professional services firm originally known as Ernst & Young—recently noted that the total value of biopharma M&A in 2022 was $88 billion, down 15% from $104 billion in 2021 [See Chart]. The $88 billion accounted for most of the $135 billion in 124 deals in the life sciences. That $135 billion figure is less than half the record-high $313 billion recorded in 2019, including $261 billion in 70 biopharma deals.

The number of biopharma deals fell 17% to 75 deals from 90. EY’s numbers include only deals greater than $100 million. The other 49 deals totaling $47 million consisted of transactions in “medtech,” which includes diagnostics developers and companies specializing in “virtual health” such as telemedicine.

We expect this to be a more active year as the sentiment starts to normalize a little bit,” Subin Baral, EY Global Life Sciences Deals Leader, told GEN Edge.

Baral is not alone in foreseeing a comeback for biopharma M&A.

John Newman, PhD, an analyst with Canaccord Genuity, predicted last week in a research note that biopharma companies will pursue a growing number of smaller cash deals in the range of $1 billion to $10 billion this year. He said rising interest rates are discouraging companies from taking on larger blockbuster deals that require buyers to take on larger sums of debt.

“We look for narrowing credit spreads and lower interest rates to encourage larger M&A ($50 billion and more) deals. We do not anticipate many $50B+ deals that could move the XBI +5%,” Newman said. (XBI is the SPDR S&P Biotech Electronic Transfer Fund, one of several large ETFs whose fluctuations reflect investor enthusiasm for biopharma stock.)

Newman added: “We continue to expect a biotech swell in 2023 that may become an M&A wave if credit conditions improve.”

Foreseeing larger deals than Newman and Canaccord Genuity is PwC, which in a commentary this month predicted: “Biotech deals in the $5–15 billion range will be prevalent and will require a different set of strategies and market-leading capabilities across the M&A cycle.”

Those capabilities include leadership within a specific therapeutic category, for which companies will have to buy and sell assets: “Prepared management teams that divest businesses that are subscale while doubling down on areas where leadership position and the right to win is tangible, may be positioned to deliver superior returns,” Glenn Hunzinger, PwC’s U.S. Pharma & Life Science Leader, and colleagues asserted.

The Right deals

Rising interest and narrowing credit partially explain the drop-off in deals during 2022, EY’s Baral said. Another reason was sellers adjusting to the drop in deal valuations that resulted from the decline of the markets which started late in 2021.

Subin Baral, EY Global Life Sciences Deals Leader

“It took a little bit longer to realize the reality of the market conditions on the seller side. But on the buyer side, the deals that they were looking at were not just simply a valuation issue. They were looking at the quality of the assets. And you can see that the quality deals—the right deals, as we call them—are still getting done,” Baral said.

The right deals, according to Baral, are those in which buyers have found takeover targets with a strong, credible management team, solid clinical data, and a clear therapeutic focus.

“Rare disease and oncology assets are still dominating the deal making, particularly oncology because your addressable market continues to grow,” Baral said. “Unfortunately, what that means is the patient population is growing too, so there’s this increased unmet need for that portfolio of assets.”

Several of 2022’s largest M&A deals fit into that “right” category, Baral said—including Amgen-Horizon, Pfizer’s $11.6-billion purchase of Biohaven Pharmaceuticals and the $6.7-billion purchase of Arena Pharmaceuticals (completed in March 2022); and Bristol-Myers Squibb’s $4.1-billion buyout of Turning Point Therapeutics.

“Quality companies are still getting funded one way or the other. So, while the valuation dropped, people were all expecting a flurry of deals because they are still companies with a shorter runway of cash that will be running to do deals. But that really didn’t happen from a buyer perspective,” Baral said. “The market moved a little bit from what was a seller’s market for a long time, to what we would like to think of as the pendulum swinging towards a buyers’ market.”

Most biopharma M&A deals, he said, will be “bolt-on” acquisitions in which a buyer aims to fill a gap in its clinical pipeline or portfolio of marketed drugs through purchases that account for less than 25% of a buyer’s market capitalization.

Baral noted that a growing number of biopharma buyers are acquiring companies with which they have partnered for several years on drug discovery and/or development collaborations. Pfizer acquired BioHaven six months after agreeing to pay the company up to $1.24 billion to commercialize rimegepant outside the U.S., where the migraine drug is marketed as Nurtec® ODT.

“There were already some kind of relationships there before these deals actually happened. But that also gives an indication that there are some insights to these targets ahead of time for these companies to feel increasingly comfortable, and pay the valuation that they’re paying for them,” Baral said.

$1.4 Trillion available

Baral sees several reasons for increased M&A activity in 2023. First, the 25 biopharma giants analyzed by EY had $1.427 trillion available as of November 30, 2022, for M&A in “firepower”—which EY defines as a company’s capacity to carry out M&A deals based on the strength of its balance sheet, specifically the amount of capital available for M&A deals from sources that include cash and equivalents, existing debt, and market cap.

That firepower is up 11% from 2021, and surpasses the previous record of $1.22 trillion in 2014, the first year that EY measured the available M&A capital of large biopharmas.

Unlike recent years, Baral said, biopharma giants are more likely to deploy that capital on M&A this year to close the “growth gap” expected to occur over the next five years as numerous blockbuster drugs lose patent exclusivity and face new competition from lower-cost generic drugs and biosimilars.

“There is not enough R&D in their pipeline to replenish a lot of their revenue. And this growth gap is coming between 2024 and 2026. So, they don’t have a long runway to watch and stay on the sidelines,” Baral said.

This explains buyers’ interest in replenishing pipelines with new and innovative treatments from smaller biopharmas, he continued. Many smaller biopharmas are open to being acquired because declining valuations and limited cash runways have increased investor pressure on them to exit via M&A. The decline of the capital markets has touched off dramatic slowdowns in two avenues through which biopharmas have gone public in recent years—initial public offerings (IPOs) and special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs).

EY recorded just 17 IPOs being priced in the U.S. and Europe, down 89% from 158 a year earlier. The largest IPO of 2022 was Prime Medicine’s initial offering, which raised $180.3 million in net proceeds for the developer of a “search and replace” gene editing platform.

Another 12 biopharmas agreed to SPAC mergers with blank-check companies, according to EY, with the largest announced transaction (yet to close at deadline) being the planned $899 million merger of cancer drug developer Apollomics with Maxpro Capital Acquisition.

“For the smaller players, the target biotech companies, their alternate source of access to capital pathways such as IPOs and SPACs is shutting down on them. So how would the biotech companies continue to fund themselves? Those with quality assets are still getting funded through venture capital or other forms of capital,” Baral said. “But in general, there is not a lot of appetite for the biotech that is taking that risk.

Figures from EY show a 37% year-to-year decline in the total value of U.S. and European VC deals, to $16.88 billion in 2022 from $26.62 billion in 2021. Late-stage financing rounds accounted for just 31% of last year’s VC deals, down from 34% in 2021 and 58% in 2012. The number of VC deals in the U.S. and Europe fell 18%, to 761 last year from 930 in 2021.

The decline in VC financing helps explain why many smaller biopharmas are operating with cash “runways” of less than 12 months. “Depending on the robustness of their data, their therapeutic area, and their management, there will be a natural attrition. Some of these companies will just have to wind down,” Baral added.

M&A headwinds

Baral also acknowledged some headwinds that are likely to dampen the pace of M&A activity. In addition to rising interest rates and inflation increasing the cost of capital, valuations remain high for the most sought-after drugs, platforms, and other assets—a result of growing and continuing innovation.

Another headwind is growing regulatory scrutiny of the largest deals. Illumina’s $8 billion purchase of cancer blood test developer Grail has faced more than two years of challenges from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and especially the European Commission—while Congress acted last year to begin curbing the price of prescription drugs and insulin through the “Inflation Reduction Act.”

Those headwinds may prompt many companies to place greater strategic priority on collaborations and partnerships instead of M&A, Baral predicted, since they offer buyers early access to newer technologies before deciding whether to invest more capital through a merger or acquisition.

“Early-stage collaboration, early minority-stake investment becomes increasingly important, and it has been a cornerstone for early access to these technologies for the industry for a long, long time, and that is not changing any time soon,” Baral said. “On the other hand, even on the therapeutic area side, early-stage development is still expensive to do in-house for the large biopharma companies because of their cost structure.

“So, it is efficient cost-wise and speed-wise to buy these assets when they reach a certain point, which is probably at Phase II onward, and then you can pull the trigger on acquisitions if needed,” he added.

The post EY Eyes Comeback for Biopharma M&A appeared first on GEN - Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology News.

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IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast As Inflation Cools

IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast As Inflation Cools

The International Monetary Fund published its latest World Economic Outlook on Monday,…

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IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast As Inflation Cools

The International Monetary Fund published its latest World Economic Outlook on Monday, painting a slightly less gloomy picture than three and a half months ago, as inflation appears to have peaked in 2022, consumer spending remains robust and the energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been less severe than initially feared.

But, as Statista's Felix Richter notes, that’s not to say the outlook is rosy, as the global economy still faces major headwinds.

However, the IMF predicts the slowdown to be less pronounced than previously anticipated.

Global growth is now expected to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent this year, before rebounding to 3.1 percent in 2024.

The 2023 growth projection is up from an October estimate of 2.7 percent, as the IMF sees far fewer countries facing recession this year and does no longer anticipates a global downturn.

Infographic: IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Inflation Cools | Statista

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One of the reasons behind the cautiously optimistic outlook is the latest downward trend in inflation, which suggests that inflation may have peaked in 2022.

The IMF predicts global inflation to cool to 6.6 percent in 2023 and 4.3 percent in 2024, which is still above pre-pandemic levels of about 3.5 percent, but significantly lower than the 8.8 percent observed in 2022.

“Economic growth proved surprisingly resilient in the third quarter of last year, with strong labor markets, robust household consumption and business investment, and better-than-expected adaptation to the energy crisis in Europe,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, wrote in a blog post released along with the report.

“Inflation, too, showed improvement, with overall measures now decreasing in most countries—even if core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, has yet to peak in many countries.”

The risks to the latest outlook remain tilted to the downside, the IMF notes, as the war in Ukraine could further escalate, inflation continues to require tight monetary policies and China’s recovery from Covid-19 disruptions remains fragile. On the plus side, strong labor markets and solid wage growth could bolster consumer demand, while easing supply chain disruptions could help cool inflation and limit the need for more monetary tightening.

In conclusion, Gourinchas calls for multilateral cooperation to counter “the forces of geoeconomic fragmentation”.

“This time around, the global economic outlook hasn’t worsened,” he writes. “That’s good news, but not enough. The road back to a full recovery, with sustainable growth, stable prices, and progress for all, is only starting.”

However, just because the 'trend' has shifted doesn't mean it's mission accomplished...

That looks an awful lot like Central Bankers' nemesis remains - global stagflation curb stomps the dovish hopes.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/31/2023 - 14:45

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Nike Escalates Design Battle Against Lululemon

The sportswear giant is accusing lululemon of patent infringement.

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The sportswear giant is accusing lululemon of patent infringement.

The Gucci loafers. The Burberry  (BBRYF) trench coat. When it comes to fashion, having a unique design is everything. This is why brands spend millions both creating and protecting their signature looks and the reason, as in the case of Adidas  (ADDDF) , extricating a brand's design from creators who behave badly is a costly and difficult process.

There is also the constant effort to release new styles without infringing on another group's style. This week, sportswear giant Nike  (NKE) - Get Free Report filed a lawsuit accusing lululemon  (LULU) - Get Free Report of infringing on its patents in the shoe line that the Vancouver-based activewear company launched last spring.

After years of selling exclusively clothing, accessories and the odd yoga mat, lululemon expanded into the world of footwear with a running shoe it dubbed Blissfeel last March. These were soon followed by training shoe and pool slide styles known as Chargefeel, Strongfeel -- all three of the designs (including a Chargefeel Low and a Chargefeel Mid design) have been mentioned in the lawsuit as causing "economic harm and irreparable injury" to Nike.

Nike's History Of Suing Lululemon Over Design

The specific issue lies in the technology used to build the shoes. According to the lawsuit filed in Manhattan federal court, certain knitted elements, webbing and tubular structures are too similar to ones that had been used by Nike earlier.

Nike is keeping the amount it hopes to receive from lululemon under wraps but is insisting the company infringed on its patent when releasing a shoe line too similar to its own. Lululemon had previously talked about how its shoe line "far exceeded" its leaders' expectations both in terms of sales and ability to expand.

In a Q1 earnings call, chief executive Calvin McDonald said that the line "definitely had a lot more demand than we anticipated."

Nike has already tried to go after lululemon through the courts once before. In January 2022, it accused the company of infringing on six patents over its at-home Mirror Home Gym. As the world emerged out of the pandemic, lululemon has been billing it as a hybrid model between at-home and in-person classes. 

The lawsuit was also filed in the U.S. District Court in Manhattan but ultimately fizzled out.

When it comes to the shoe line lawsuit, Lululemon has been telling media outlets that "Nike's claims are unjustified" and the company "look[s] forward to proving [their] case in court."

Lululemon

Some More Examples Of Prominent Design Battles

In the fashion industry, design infringement accusations are common and rarely lead to high-profile rulings. While Nike has gone after the technology itself in both cases, lawsuits more often focus on the style or pattern on a given piece.

Shein, a China-based fast-fashion company that took on longtime leaders like H&M  (HNNMY)  and Fast Retailing  (FRCOF) 's Uniqlo with its bottom-of-the-barrel pricing, has faced numerous allegations from smaller and independent designers over the copying of designs -- in some cases not even from fashion designers but artists painting in local communities.

"They didn't remotely bother trying to change anything," U.K.-based artist Vanessa Bowman told the Guardian after seeing her painting of a local church appear on a sweater on Shein's website. "The things I paint are my garden and my little village: it’s my life. And they’ve just taken my world to China and whacked it on an acrylic jumper."

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