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Polkadot 2.0 and the future of DOT, explained

Polkadot 2.0 will bring a range of new features and is set to change how the Polkadot network works.
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Polkadot 2.0 will bring a range of new features and is set to change how the Polkadot network works.

The future of DOT and Polkadot

The enhanced utility of the Polkadot network is expected to boost the value of DOT tokens if Polkadot 2.0 is well-received and gains traction.

That’s because projects will need DOT tokens to acquire coretime. Additionally, DOT — the native token of the Polkadot network and the primary token for settling network fees — could benefit from increased demand, subsequently driving up its value.

To benefit holders and boost DOT value, entities with surplus coretime may sell it. As a result, the secondary market value of DOT might grow. Additionally, decentralized finance services on Polkadot offer earning potential to DOT holders, which raises the token’s use, value and liquidity.

Moreover, revenue from coretime sales will be channeled into the Polkadot Treasury. DOT tokenholders decide how Treasury funds are distributed through OpenGov. Treasury spend is fluid, and tokens not assigned to projects bidding for funds are periodically burnt.  

The burning mechanism creates deflationary pressure on DOT, which is nominally an inflationary token.This balances the overall circulating supply of the token, which could be something to take into account when considering the future value of DOT.

However, potentially more important aspects to consider in this regard are market dynamics, overall adoption and developments within the Polkadot network, such as the arrival of Polkadot 2.0.

About DOT Polkadot’s native token

DOT, Polkadot’s native token, fulfills three integral roles within the ecosystem, each contributing to the network’s functionality and growth.

The first role of the DOT token is governance. DOT holders can participate in network governance proposals, encompassing critical decisions such as network upgrades and fee adjustments. This participatory function is a cornerstone of Polkadot’s long-term viability. By enabling DOT holders to influence network operations, Polkadot fosters a transparent and democratic governance structure that ensures fairness.

DOT tokens also have a vital operational purpose by bolstering network security and transaction processing through the staking process. Nominators use some of their DOT holdings to select validators, who  are responsible for validating transactions and appending blocks to the blockchain. Their engagement in this process is rewarded with additional DOT tokens, incentivizing their contribution to the network’s operation. 

This operational facet is essential for the day-to-day functioning of Polkadot, as DOT’s utilization ensures a secure and efficient platform for developers to construct their applications.

Lastly, DOT tokens are used in slot auctions. The current Polkadot blockspace auction model allows projects to obtain a parachain by bonding DOT tokens. The process is pretty straightforward: the project that pledges the highest number of DOT tokens in an auction obtains the parachain slot. Projects can bid for a slot using their own DOT holdings or through a crowd loan. A crowd loan allows projects to raise DOT from their communities and supporters to bid for a parachain slot.

The DOT tokens submitted as collateral during an auction are effectively tied up for the entire duration of the lease. Consequently, the project cannot utilize these DOT tokens for any other purpose during this timeframe.

Following the finalization of the auction, the winning project can link its parachain to the Polkadot Relay Chain. Subsequently, the parachain becomes operational and benefits from the Polkadot network security and scalability attributes. The slot durations are limited to two years.

The main components of the Polkadot network

The Polkadot network comprises three fundamental components that collectively form its intricate structure, including the Relay Chain, parachains and bridges.

The Relay Chain lies at the core of the Polkadot ecosystem, functioning as the primary blockchain of the network. It helps to safeguard overall network integrity and facilitate communication among parachains.

Parachains stand as parallel blockchains that represent the various Layer-1 projects building in the Polkadot ecosystem. They serve as hosts for decentralized applications and various blockchain-driven projects. The versatility of parachains lies in their adaptability to cater to the specific requirements of the hosted projects. 

For instance, a parachain designated for a decentralized exchange could be configured to manage a high volume of transactions efficiently. Parachains such as the Astar Network also incorporate features such as Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility, WebAssembly (WASM) smart contracts and cross-consensus messaging (XCM) to facilitate seamless communication between decentralized applications (DApps).

On the other hand, bridges serve as vital conduits connecting the Polkadot network to other blockchain networks. The overarching goal of bridges is to enhance the interoperability of disparate blockchain networks so they can communicate and interact effectively.

To better illustrate how they work, consider the scenario where a developer seeks to construct an application harnessing data from two incompatible blockchains. Such an endeavor would be untenable without a bridge system, given the inherent incompatibility between them. In such a case, Polkadot acts as an enabler, facilitating communication and data sharing between the two disparate blockchains.

A real-world use case would involve a user aiming to transfer assets across different blockchains. Without a solution like the XCM messaging format, which allows blockchains to interact, such an operation would necessitate reliance on a centralized exchange. Networks like Polkadot allow users to migrate assets between blockchains directly, eliminating the need for third-party intermediaries. 

Another unique property of the Polkadot network is that it operates as a layer-0 blockchain. A layer-0 blockchain serves as a foundational framework upon which subsequent blockchains can be constructed.

As a layer-0 blockchain, it provides infrastructure that empowers programmers to fashion their own blockchains while ensuring cross-chain interoperability. As such, blockchains developed atop the Polkadot platform can seamlessly communicate and engage with one another, regardless of technological variations.

This is a substantial advantage over conventional blockchains, which frequently exist in isolated silos, incapable of mutual communication. It makes the Polkadot network ideal for crafting decentralized applications utilizing data from multiple blockchains.

As Polkadot is already established as the foundational layer, it alleviates many of the problems programmers face when working with rigid layer-1 chains by providing a more adaptable base infrastructure. Governance of the Polkadot network is carried out directly by holders of the DOT token, whereby token holders actively participate in a voting process to vote on all proposals aimed at making changes to the network. The democratic approach, launched earlier this year and known as OpenGov, grants every token holder a voice in shaping the platform’s evolution.

When it comes to transaction validation, Polkadot employs a nominated proof-of-stake (NPoS) mechanism to select its validator set, focusing on enhancing chain security. Validator nodes are responsible for block production, parachain block validation, and finality assurance, while nominators can support specific validators with their stake, backing trusted candidates with their tokens.

What is Polkadot 2.0?

The Polkadot network has grown significantly over the past couple of years due to its unique utilitarian features. And now, a new vision for the network's future, which we can call Polkadot 2.0, has been laid out.

Initially announced in June 2023 by Polkadot founder Gavin Wood, the new network will change the way Polkadot assigns its resources. Speaking during the Polkadot Decoded 2023 event held in Copenhagen, Wood took the time to delve into the ideological concepts of the new system.

Wood said Polkadot 2.0 would use a new system for allocating blockspace. The system would be more flexible than the current lease model, allowing developers to buy blockspace as needed, either in bulk or on demand. This, according to the crypto network developer, would make it easier for new projects to enter the Polkadot ecosystem. He explained that the changes would also make Polkadot more attractive to Web2 businesses adopting Web3 frameworks.

The core concept driving the evolution of Polkadot 2.0 centers on the introduction of elastic cores, catering to adaptable computational capabilities. Presently, parachains function akin to fixed CPU cores within the Polkadot supercomputer. However, the upcoming system will allocate resources like Relay Chain security flexibly, responding to real-time needs. This innovation holds the promise of significantly enhancing efficiency throughout the ecosystem.

Another significant change in Polkadot 2.0 revolves around its strategy for coretime allocation. Coretime signifies the time needed for validation and consensus on the Polkadot Relay Chain. In the new version, coretime will be purchasable as block time. This will be achieved using an auction and a pay-as-you-go model with a fixed price.

Changes in core assignment

The table below highlights the transition from fixed slot leasing in Polkadot 1.0 to a more dynamic and tradable coretime asset in Polkadot 2.0, allowing for greater flexibility and customization in coretime allocation.

Coretime allocation in Polkadot 1.0 vs. Coretime allocation in Polkadot 2.0

According to Wood, the design of the new system would be based on the emergent needs of developers to avoid future design problems. He also noted that the new system could increase the liquidity of Polkadot (DOT) tokens by reducing token lockup periods.

Introducing the new model would be a significant milestone for Polkadot, marking a shift away from the current parachains model where blockspace is allocated primarily through an auction process and a fixed lease period. The new system is expected to make Polkadot more accessible and affordable for developers, fostering innovation in the Web3 ecosystem.

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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to star…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.
Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
There is much more in the article.

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Pharma industry reputation remains steady at a ‘new normal’ after Covid, Harris Poll finds

The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45%…

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The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45% of US respondents in 2023, according to the latest Harris Poll data. That’s exactly the same as the previous year.

Pharma’s highest point was in February 2021 — as Covid vaccines began to roll out — with a 62% positive US perception, and helping the industry land at an average 55% positive sentiment at the end of the year in Harris’ 2021 annual assessment of industries. The pharma industry’s reputation hit its most recent low at 32% in 2019, but it had hovered around 30% for more than a decade prior.

Rob Jekielek

“Pharma has sustained a lot of the gains, now basically one and half times higher than pre-Covid,” said Harris Poll managing director Rob Jekielek. “There is a question mark around how sustained it will be, but right now it feels like a new normal.”

The Harris survey spans 11 global markets and covers 13 industries. Pharma perception is even better abroad, with an average 58% of respondents notching favorable sentiments in 2023, just a slight slip from 60% in each of the two previous years.

Pharma’s solid global reputation puts it in the middle of the pack among international industries, ranking higher than government at 37% positive, insurance at 48%, financial services at 51% and health insurance at 52%. Pharma ranks just behind automotive (62%), manufacturing (63%) and consumer products (63%), although it lags behind leading industries like tech at 75% positive in the first spot, followed by grocery at 67%.

The bright spotlight on the pharma industry during Covid vaccine and drug development boosted its reputation, but Jekielek said there’s maybe an argument to be made that pharma is continuing to develop innovative drugs outside that spotlight.

“When you look at pharma reputation during Covid, you have clear sense of a very dynamic industry working very quickly and getting therapies and products to market. If you’re looking at things happening now, you could argue that pharma still probably doesn’t get enough credit for its advances, for example, in oncology treatments,” he said.

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Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt: I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened followi…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

A brief excerpt:
I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble). The two key reasons are mortgage lending has been solid, and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes..
...
And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q3 2023 (Q4 2023 data will be released in a two weeks).

This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 22.6% of loans are under 3%, 59.4% are under 4%, and 78.7% are under 5%.

With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

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