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Nasdaq 100 Technical: Slipped back below 50-day moving average as Fed FOMC looms

Bullish tone dissipated last Friday, 15 September ex-post Arm’s IPO spectacularly first-day positive performance as the Nasdaq 100 had a weekly close…

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  • Bullish tone dissipated last Friday, 15 September ex-post Arm’s IPO spectacularly first-day positive performance as the Nasdaq 100 had a weekly close below the 50-day moving average for the 4th time in the past six weeks.
  • Rising market-based inflationary expectations in line with recent magnificent rallies seen in oil prices may cause the Fed to be less dovish on the timing to enact the first interest rate cut in 2024.
  • 15,540 is the key short-term resistance to watch.

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Nasdaq 100 Technical: Bearish momentum reasserts” published on 25 August 2025. Click here for a recap.

The price actions of the US Nas 100 Index (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 futures) have whipsawed in the past four weeks, it cleared above the 15,135 short-term resistance (also the 20-day moving average) as highlighted in our previous report but the bulls failed to make any headway above the 15,460/15,540 medium-term resistance and staged a weekly close below its 50-day moving average on last Friday, 15 September.

Last week’s bullish hesitancy is primarily driven by the fears that the US central bank, the Fed in the upcoming FOMC meeting this coming Wednesday, 20 September together with the latest “dot-plot” release may indicate a stance or guidance that a higher level of interest rate can persist for a longer period of time after the last hike on the Fed funds rate in 2023 (either in the November or December FOMC based on interest rates futures data from CME FedWatch tool as of 18 September 2023).

Rising market-based inflationary expectations may catch dovish market participants off guard

Fig 1: Correlation between WTI crude oil and US 5-year & 10-year breakeven inflation rates as of 19 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

A potential Fed’s guidance that indicates a persistent longer period of higher interest rates for next year that stretches beyond Q2 of 2024 due to higher oil prices that have driven up market-based inflationary expectations (5-year & 10-year break-even inflation rates) may catch the market off guard as there is a high chance of 55% for the Fed to enact its first interest rate cut in June 2024 FOMC as inferred from the CME FedWatch tool.

The US Nas 100 Index falls under the “long-duration” risk asset classification that is vulnerable to a higher interest rates environment that persists for a longer-term horizon where profit margins of the top component stocks; the magnificent seven mega-caps (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla & Nvidia) are primarily dependent on longer-term revenues or cash inflows that are likely to be received further far out in the future which in turn tend to have lower present values if discounted by a higher interest rate factor, hence higher opportunity costs for holding such mega-cap stocks.

To offset such potentially higher opportunity costs, the current lofty valuations (forward price to earnings ratios) of these mega-cap stocks need to come down considerably either by higher earnings growth or lower share prices. If the global demand environment remains lackluster or even slips into a recession or stagflation in 2024, the latter is more likely to occur which can put downside pressure on the US Nas 100 Index.

Medium-term momentum remains bearish

Fig 2: US Nas 100 medium-term trend as of 19 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Last week’s close below the 50-day moving average of the US Nas 100 Index has occurred in conjunction with a bearish momentum condition reading as indicated by the daily RSI.

The daily RSI has inched downwards and shaped a “lower low” right below a former key parallel ascending support now turns pull-back resistance at the 60 level which suggests a potential resurgence of medium-term bearish momentum.

Price actions have broken down below the 20-day moving average

Fig 3: US Nas 100 minor short-term trend as of 19 Sep 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Last Friday’s 15 September price actions of the Index staged a bearish breakdown below its 20-day moving average and yesterday’s 18 September minor rebound seen at the start of the US session has halted at the 20-day moving average. These observations suggest that short-term bearish momentum remains intact.

Watch the 15,540 key short-term pivotal resistance and a break below 15,085 may trigger a further slide towards the next intermediate support at 14,750 in the first step.

On the other hand, a clearance above 15,540 invalidates the bearish tone for the next intermediate resistance to come in at 15,800 (27 July/ 29 July 2023 minor swing highs).

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SEC initiates legal action against FTX’s auditor

The SEC alleges that Prager Metis, an accounting firm engaged by bankrupt crypto exchange FTX in 2021, committed hundreds of violations related to auditor…

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The SEC alleges that Prager Metis, an accounting firm engaged by bankrupt crypto exchange FTX in 2021, committed hundreds of violations related to auditor independence.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has commenced legal proceedings against an accounting firm that had provided services to cryptocurrency exchange FTX before its bankruptcy declaration.

According to a Sept. 29 statement, the SEC alleged that accounting firm Prager Metis provided auditing services to its clients without maintaining the necessary independence as it continued to offer accounting services. This practice is prohibited under the auditor independence framework.

Extract from the SEC's September 29 statement. Source: SEC

To prevent conflicts of interest, accounting and audit tasks must be kept clearly separate. However, the SEC claims that these entwined activities spanned over a period of approximately three years:

“As alleged in our complaint, over a period of nearly three years, Prager’s audits, reviews, and exams fell short of these fundamental principles. Our complaint is an important reminder that auditor independence is crucial to investor protection.”

While the statement doesn't explicitly mention FTX or any other clients, it does emphasize that there were allegedly "hundreds" of auditor independence violations throughout the three-year period.

Furthermore, a previous court filing pointed out that the FTX Group engaged Metis to audit FTX US and FTX at some point in 2021. Subsequently, FTX declared bankruptcy in November 2022. 

The filing alleged that since former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried publicly announced previous FTX audit results, Metis should have recognized that its work would be used by FTX to bolster public trust.

Related: FTX founder’s plea for temporary release should be denied, prosecution says

Concerns were previously reported about the material presented in FTX audit reports.

On Jan. 25, current FTX CEO John J. Ray III told a bankruptcy court that he had “substantial concerns as to the information presented in these audited financial statements.”

Furthermore, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Ron Wyden raised concerns about Prager Metis' impartiality. They argued that it functioned as an advocate for the crypto industry.

Meanwhile, a law firm that provided services to FTX has come under scrutiny in recent times.

In a Sept. 21 court filing, plaintiffs allege that U.S. based law firm, Fenwick & West, should be held partially liable for FTX's collapse because it reportedly exceeded the norm when it came to its service offerings to the exchange.

However, Fenwick & West asserts that it cannot be held accountable for a client's misconduct as long as its actions remain within the bounds of the client's representation.

Magazine: Blockchain detectives: Mt. Gox collapse saw birth of Chainalysis

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DOJ readies witnesses in Bankman-Fried trial, highlights FTX asset management

The DOJ intends to highlight the experiences of retail and institutional clients who entrusted substantial assets to FTX.
The Department…

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The DOJ intends to highlight the experiences of retail and institutional clients who entrusted substantial assets to FTX.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) has confirmed its intention to summon former FTX clients, investors and staff as witnesses in the upcoming trial involving Sam Bankman-Fried, the former FTX CEO.

The DOJ submitted a letter motion in limine on Sept. 30 describing the witnesses it intends to call concerning FTX’s treatment of customer assets.

The testimonies intend to provide perspectives on the interactions between the accused and the witnesses. It also aims to get the witnesses’ understanding of Bankman-Fried’s remarks and conduct, particularly regarding FTX’s asset management. The DOJ intends to highlight the experiences of retail and institutional clients who entrusted substantial assets to FTX, believing that the platform would safeguard them securely.

Court filing in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York. Source: CourtListener

Furthermore, a situation has emerged concerning one of the DOJ’s witnesses, “FTX Customer-1,” who resides in Ukraine. Given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, traveling to the U.S. to provide testimony is associated with difficulties. The DOJ has suggested using video conferencing as a viable alternative. However, Bankman-Fried’s defense has not yet approved this proposal.

Nonetheless, the legal team representing Bankman-Fried, led by lawyer Mark Cohen, has voiced concerns about the jury questions put forth by the DOJ. According to Bankman-Fried’s defense, these interrogations insinuate guilt on Bankman-Fried’s part, potentially undermining the principle of “innocent until proven guilty.“

Additionally, the defense contends that these inquiries may not effectively uncover the jurors’ inherent biases, especially related to their encounters with cryptocurrencies. Moreover, specific questions could inadvertently guide the jury’s perspective instead of eliciting authentic insights, possibly compromising the trial’s impartiality.

Related: Sam Bankman-Fried’s lawyer challenges US gov’t proposed jury questions

With the jury selection scheduled to start on Oct. 3, closely followed by the trial, the spotlight is firmly on this high-stakes legal confrontation. This case underscores not only its immediate consequences but also underscores the vital importance of transparent communication and unbiased questioning in upholding the principles of justice.

Magazine: Deposit risk: What do crypto exchanges really do with your money?

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Vitalik Buterin voices concerns over DAOs approving ETH staking pool operators

The Ethereum co-founder proposes a solution that could lower the likelihood of any individual liquid staking provider growing to a point where it poses…

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The Ethereum co-founder proposes a solution that could lower the likelihood of any individual liquid staking provider growing to a point where it poses a systemic risk.

Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, has expressed worries regarding decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) exerting a monopoly over the selection of node operators in liquidity staking pools.

In a September 30 blog post, Buterin issues a warning that as staking pools adopt the DAO approach for governance over node operators—who are ultimately responsible for the pool's funds—it can expose them to potential risks from malicious actors.

“With the DAO approach, if a single such staking token dominates, that leads to a single, potentially attackable governance gadget controlling a very large portion of all Ethereum validators.”

Buterin highlights the liquid staking provider Lido (LDO) as an example with a DAO that validates node operators. However, he emphasizes that relying on just one layer of protection may prove insufficient:

“To the credit of protocols like Lido, they have implemented safeguards against this, but one layer of defense may not be enough,” he noted.

ETH staked by category chart. Source: Vitalik Buterin

Meanwhile, he explains that Rocket Pool offers the opportunity for anyone to become a node operator by placing an 8 Ether (ETH) deposit, which, at the time of this publication, is equivalent to approximately $13,406.

However, he notes this comes with its risks. "The Rocket Pool approach allows attackers to 51% attack the network, and force users to pay most of the costs," he stated.

On the other hand, Buterin highlights that having a mechanism to ascertain who can act as the underlying node operators is an inevitable necessity:

"It can't be unrestricted, because then attackers would join and amplify their attacks with users' funds."

Related: Ethereum is about to get crushed by liquid staking tokens

Buterin further outlines that a possible approach to address this issue involves encouraging ecosystem participants to utilize a variety of liquid staking providers. 

He clarifies this would decrease the likelihood of any one provider becoming excessively large and posing a systemic risk.

“In the longer term, however, this is an unstable equilibrium, and there is peril in relying too much on moralistic pressure to solve problems," he stated.

Magazine: Are DAOs overhyped and unworkable? Lessons from the front lines

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