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Mid-Market Update: Pelosi “Just about there”, Claims improve but still high, Housing Sales on Fire, Earnings recap, Record cases in Europe, Oil rallies, Gold at $1900

Mid-Market Update: Pelosi “Just about there”, Claims improve but still high, Housing Sales on Fire, Earnings recap, Record cases in Europe, Oil rallies, Gold at $1900

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US stocks are having a rollercoaster trading session.  Early earnings reports from Southwest Airlines, Freeport McMoran, Coca-Cola, and AT&T mostly provided strong earnings and revenue beats.  After the morning’s economic data, a confirmation that recovery is slowing, equities gave back most of their gains.

In what was possibly going to be an update with minimal focus on stimulus, enter Nancy Pelosi.  S&P 500 futures surged after House Speaker Pelosi said they are ‘just about there’ with the stimulus deal.  Pelosi’s comment indicates more progress has been made, but what is also needed is Senate Majority Leader McConnell’s blessing.  The biggest hurdles remain state aid and liability provisions, which means optimism should be minimal.

Trump was hoping to have a stimulus deal in place by now to keep voters optimistic that the government has their back.  Each day that passes, more Americans have casted their ballots (over 40 million as of yesterday) and the impact of a stimulus deal for President Trump is less.  Tonight, Americans will watch the final debate between President Trump and former-VP Biden and see if it will have a definitive winner for the roughly 8% of undecided voters.  This debate is not expected to be a circus like the last one, but an opportunity for Americans to hear more from Biden.

Jobless Claims

The good news is jobless claims improved significantly, posting the lowest reading since mid-March.  The bad news is that Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) program rose over 500,000 to 3.3 million Americans.  The ugly news is that over 22 million Americans are still participating in one of the unemployment insurance programs. Jobless claims finally broke below the 800,000 level but still nowhere near the pre-pandemic 200,000 area.  President Trump will view this report as progress the economy is headed in the right direction, but the argument can easily be made that this trend won’t last and that stimulus is very much warranted now.

Housing

The housing market is still on fire.  Existing home sales surged 9.4% in September, the highest level in 14 years and just before the housing bubble popped.  Inventories remain lean but it seems the American dream to own a home remains firmly in place.  Despite the move higher in Treasury yields the average 30-year fixed rate is still historically low at 3.02% (from yesterday’s MBA mortgage application report).

Despite a robust housing report, homebuilders are under pressure following today’s broader stock market weakness.  LGI Homes, Lennar, DR Horton, and Toll Brothers are down anywhere from -6% to -1.5% as investors feel the surging housing market is about to run out of steam heading into the winter.

Treasuries

The Fed for now is clearly signaling the recent rise in yields does not require action now.  Yesterday, Fed’s Mester noted that it is important price expectations anchor near long-run goal.  Fed’s Bullard reiterated low interest rates for a while.  The Beige Book highlighted economic growth expanded at a slight to modest pace across the US over the past seven weeks.  The Fed is waiting on fiscal support from Congress, but in the end it seems pretty likely they will need to increase their asset purchases or adopt yield curve control.

The 10-year Treasury yield is higher by 1.5 bps at 0.838%.  It is hard to imagine Treasury yields are ready to make that run towards 1% since this could be the peak for housing market, the Conference Board leading indicator shows momentum is slowing down and jobless claims remain elevated, still close to 4X pre-pandemic levels.  The Fed seems comfortable with rates at the current levels, but if yields continue to rise that will change.  If the 10-year Treasury yield tests 90 basis points, the Fed will likely talk up increasing purchases or yield curve control if the recovery continues to slowdown.

Dollar

It looks like the high-beta currencies are on water break and the punching bag that is the dollar is mustering up a bit of rally.  The record rise in COVID-19 cases in Europe is disastrous for the short-term outlook for the euro and that should keep the dollar from weakening.

Oil

Crude prices are rising higher after airlines become more optimistic on travel demand and after House Speaker Pelosi signals they are ‘just about there’ on a stimulus deal.  Earnings reports from American Airlines and Southwest Airlines highlighted modest improvement in travel demand and painted some optimism over improving holiday travel plans.

Today’s oil price rally is very impressive given the stronger dollar and the record surges in new coronavirus cases across Europe.  Spain’s new cases top the 1 million count and France is practically there, while Germany and Poland posted record rises in coronavirus cases, which strongly suggests quarantines, curfews and lockdown efforts are about to cripple crude demand in Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also provided supportive comments about the cooperation with OPEC+ to stabilize the global oil market.  Putin is reinforcing that Saudi/Russian unity is firmly intact and that they will continue to keep the oil prices firm.

WTI crude is practically at the ceiling of its recent trading range, it will be difficult to break above $42 unless Senate Republicans also voice House Speaker Pelosi’s optimism, which at the time still seems unlikely.

Gold

Gold prices pared losses and recaptured the $1900 level after House Speaker Pelosi stated that they are ‘just about there’ on a stimulus deal. Gold prices initially were sharply lower on strong US economic data that took away some urgency from Congress in needing to deliver stimulus.

Gold has a tough week ahead if the virus situation continues to deteriorate in Europe and stabilize in America.  A stronger dollar could emerge if Europe announces more lockdowns, prompting expectations for the ECB slightly ahead of the Fed.  The end result is more stimulus from both the Fed and ECB and that in the long-term is very positive for gold.  Gold seems like it will pivot quite a bit around the $1900 level in the very short-term.

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Health Officials: Man Dies From Bubonic Plague In New Mexico

Health Officials: Man Dies From Bubonic Plague In New Mexico

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Officials in…

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Health Officials: Man Dies From Bubonic Plague In New Mexico

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Officials in New Mexico confirmed that a resident died from the plague in the United States’ first fatal case in several years.

A bubonic plague smear, prepared from a lymph removed from an adenopathic lymph node, or bubo, of a plague patient, demonstrates the presence of the Yersinia pestis bacteria that causes the plague in this undated photo. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/Getty Images)

The New Mexico Department of Health, in a statement, said that a man in Lincoln County “succumbed to the plague.” The man, who was not identified, was hospitalized before his death, officials said.

They further noted that it is the first human case of plague in New Mexico since 2021 and also the first death since 2020, according to the statement. No other details were provided, including how the disease spread to the man.

The agency is now doing outreach in Lincoln County, while “an environmental assessment will also be conducted in the community to look for ongoing risk,” the statement continued.

This tragic incident serves as a clear reminder of the threat posed by this ancient disease and emphasizes the need for heightened community awareness and proactive measures to prevent its spread,” the agency said.

A bacterial disease that spreads via rodents, it is generally spread to people through the bites of infected fleas. The plague, known as the black death or the bubonic plague, can spread by contact with infected animals such as rodents, pets, or wildlife.

The New Mexico Health Department statement said that pets such as dogs and cats that roam and hunt can bring infected fleas back into homes and put residents at risk.

Officials warned people in the area to “avoid sick or dead rodents and rabbits, and their nests and burrows” and to “prevent pets from roaming and hunting.”

“Talk to your veterinarian about using an appropriate flea control product on your pets as not all products are safe for cats, dogs or your children” and “have sick pets examined promptly by a veterinarian,” it added.

“See your doctor about any unexplained illness involving a sudden and severe fever, the statement continued, adding that locals should clean areas around their home that could house rodents like wood piles, junk piles, old vehicles, and brush piles.

The plague, which is spread by the bacteria Yersinia pestis, famously caused the deaths of an estimated hundreds of millions of Europeans in the 14th and 15th centuries following the Mongol invasions. In that pandemic, the bacteria spread via fleas on black rats, which historians say was not known by the people at the time.

Other outbreaks of the plague, such as the Plague of Justinian in the 6th century, are also believed to have killed about one-fifth of the population of the Byzantine Empire, according to historical records and accounts. In 2013, researchers said the Justinian plague was also caused by the Yersinia pestis bacteria.

But in the United States, it is considered a rare disease and usually occurs only in several countries worldwide. Generally, according to the Mayo Clinic, the bacteria affects only a few people in U.S. rural areas in Western states.

Recent cases have occurred mainly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Countries with frequent plague cases include Madagascar, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru, the clinic says. There were multiple cases of plague reported in Inner Mongolia, China, in recent years, too.

Symptoms

Symptoms of a bubonic plague infection include headache, chills, fever, and weakness. Health officials say it can usually cause a painful swelling of lymph nodes in the groin, armpit, or neck areas. The swelling usually occurs within about two to eight days.

The disease can generally be treated with antibiotics, but it is usually deadly when not treated, the Mayo Clinic website says.

“Plague is considered a potential bioweapon. The U.S. government has plans and treatments in place if the disease is used as a weapon,” the website also says.

According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the last time that plague deaths were reported in the United States was in 2020 when two people died.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 21:40

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Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Secretary…

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Mike Pompeo Doesn't Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a new interview that he’s not ruling out accepting a White House position if former President Donald Trump is reelected in November.

“If I get a chance to serve and think that I can make a difference ... I’m almost certainly going to say yes to that opportunity to try and deliver on behalf of the American people,” he told Fox News, when asked during a interview if he would work for President Trump again.

I’m confident President Trump will be looking for people who will faithfully execute what it is he asked them to do,” Mr. Pompeo said during the interview, which aired on March 8. “I think as a president, you should always want that from everyone.”

Then-President Donald Trump (C), then- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L), and then-Vice President Mike Pence, take a question during the daily briefing on the novel coronavirus at the White House in Washington on April 8, 2020. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

He said that as a former secretary of state, “I certainly wanted my team to do what I was asking them to do and was enormously frustrated when I found that I couldn’t get them to do that.”

Mr. Pompeo, a former U.S. representative from Kansas, served as Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2018 before he was secretary of state from 2018 to 2021. After he left office, there was speculation that he could mount a Republican presidential bid in 2024, but announced that he wouldn’t be running.

President Trump hasn’t publicly commented about Mr. Pompeo’s remarks.

In 2023, amid speculation that he would make a run for the White House, Mr. Pompeo took a swipe at his former boss, telling Fox News at the time that “the Trump administration spent $6 trillion more than it took in, adding to the deficit.”

“That’s never the right direction for the country,” he said.

In a public appearance last year, Mr. Pompeo also appeared to take a shot at the 45th president by criticizing “celebrity leaders” when urging GOP voters to choose ahead of the 2024 election.

2024 Race

Mr. Pompeo’s interview comes as the former president was named the “presumptive nominee” by the Republican National Committee (RNC) last week after his last major Republican challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, dropped out of the 2024 race after failing to secure enough delegates. President Trump won 14 out of 15 states on Super Tuesday, with only Vermont—which notably has an open primary—going for Ms. Haley, who served as President Trump’s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

On March 8, the RNC held a meeting in Houston during which committee members voted in favor of President Trump’s nomination.

“Congratulations to President Donald J. Trump on his huge primary victory!” the organization said in a statement last week. “I’d also like to congratulate Nikki Haley for running a hard-fought campaign and becoming the first woman to win a Republican presidential contest.”

Earlier this year, the former president criticized the idea of being named the presumptive nominee after reports suggested that the RNC would do so before the Super Tuesday contests and while Ms. Haley was still in the race.

Also on March 8, the RNC voted to name Trump-endorsed officials to head the organization. Michael Whatley, a North Carolina Republican, was elected the party’s new national chairman in a vote in Houston, and Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, was voted in as co-chair.

“The RNC is going to be the vanguard of a movement that will work tirelessly every single day to elect our nominee, Donald J. Trump, as the 47th President of the United States,” Mr. Whatley told RNC members in a speech after being elected, replacing former chair Ronna McDaniel. Ms. Trump is expected to focus largely on fundraising and media appearances.

President Trump hasn’t signaled whom he would appoint to various federal agencies if he’s reelected in November. He also hasn’t said who his pick for a running mate would be, but has offered several suggestions in recent interviews.

In various interviews, the former president has mentioned Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, among others.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:00

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International

Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and…

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Riley Gaines Explains How Women's Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and bewildering tunnel of social justice cultism?  Global events have been so frenetic that many people might not remember, but only a couple years ago Big Tech companies and numerous governments were openly aligned in favor of mass censorship.  Not just to prevent the public from investigating the facts surrounding the pandemic farce, but to silence anyone questioning the validity of woke concepts like trans ideology. 

From 2020-2022 was the closest the west has come in a long time to a complete erasure of freedom of speech.  Even today there are still countries and Europe and places like Canada or Australia that are charging forward with draconian speech laws.  The phrase "radical speech" is starting to circulate within pro-censorship circles in reference to any platform where people are allowed to talk critically.  What is radical speech?  Basically, it's any discussion that runs contrary to the beliefs of the political left.

Open hatred of moderate or conservative ideals is perfectly acceptable, but don't ever shine a negative light on woke activism, or you might be a terrorist.

Riley Gaines has experienced this double standard first hand.  She was even assaulted and taken hostage at an event in 2023 at San Francisco State University when leftists protester tried to trap her in a room and demanded she "pay them to let her go."  Campus police allegedly witnessed the incident but charges were never filed and surveillance footage from the college was never released.  

It's probably the last thing a champion female swimmer ever expects, but her head-on collision with the trans movement and the institutional conspiracy to push it on the public forced her to become a counter-culture voice of reason rather than just an athlete.

For years the independent media argued that no matter how much we expose the insanity of men posing as women to compete and dominate women's sports, nothing will really change until the real female athletes speak up and fight back.  Riley Gaines and those like her represent that necessary rebellion and a desperately needed return to common sense and reason.

In a recent interview on the Joe Rogan Podcast, Gaines related some interesting information on the inner workings of the NCAA and the subversive schemes surrounding trans athletes.  Not only were women participants essentially strong-armed by colleges and officials into quietly going along with the program, there was also a concerted propaganda effort.  Competition ceremonies were rigged as vehicles for promoting trans athletes over everyone else. 

The bottom line?  The competitions didn't matter.  The real women and their achievements didn't matter.  The only thing that mattered to officials were the photo ops; dudes pretending to be chicks posing with awards for the gushing corporate media.  The agenda took precedence.

Lia Thomas, formerly known as William Thomas, was more than an activist invading female sports, he was also apparently a science project fostered and protected by the athletic establishment.  It's important to understand that the political left does not care about female athletes.  They do not care about women's sports.  They don't care about the integrity of the environments they co-opt.  Their only goal is to identify viable platforms with social impact and take control of them.  Women's sports are seen as a vehicle for public indoctrination, nothing more.

The reasons why they covet women's sports are varied, but a primary motive is the desire to assert the fallacy that men and women are "the same" psychologically as well as physically.  They want the deconstruction of biological sex and identity as nothing more than "social constructs" subject to personal preference.  If they can destroy what it means to be a man or a woman, they can destroy the very foundations of relationships, families and even procreation.  

For now it seems as though the trans agenda is hitting a wall with much of the public aware of it and less afraid to criticize it.  Social media companies might be able to silence some people, but they can't silence everyone.  However, there is still a significant threat as the movement continues to target children through the public education system and women's sports are not out of the woods yet.   

The ultimate solution is for women athletes around the world to organize and widely refuse to participate in any competitions in which biological men are allowed.  The only way to save women's sports is for women to be willing to end them, at least until institutions that put doctrine ahead of logic are made irrelevant.          

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:20

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