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MCT Update: Inflation Persistence Declined Significantly in April

This post presents an updated estimate of inflation persistence, following the release of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for April 2023….

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This post presents an updated estimate of inflation persistence, following the release of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for April 2023. The estimates are obtained by the Multivariate Core Trend (MCT), a model we introduced on Liberty Street Economics last year and covered most recently in a May post.  The MCT is a dynamic factor model estimated on monthly data for the seventeen major sectors of the PCE price index. It decomposes each sector’s inflation as the sum of a common trend, a sector-specific trend, a common transitory shock, and a sector-specific transitory shock. The trend in PCE inflation is constructed as the sum of the common and the sector-specific trends weighted by the expenditure shares. 

MCT Declined in April

The MCT declined to 3.4 percent in April from 3.6 percent in March (the value for March was itself revised down considerably from 4.5 percent). Uncertainty is high as reflected in the 68 percent probability band (shaded area) of (3.0, 4.0) percent. By comparison, the standard twelve-month core PCE measure inched up to 4.7 percent in April following monthly readings of 0.4 percent in April and 0.3 percent in March.

PCE and Multivariate Core Trend

Line chart showing the Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation estimates alongside twelve-month headline and core PCE inflation from 2017-April 2023.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; authors’ calculations.
Notes: PCE is personal consumption expenditure. The shaded area is a 68 percent probability band.

The latest MCT estimates revised down the recent path for inflation persistence: from October 2022 to January 2023 the trend held steady at a level close to 4¾ percent, after exceeding 5 percent during most of 2022. Since January 2023, the trend has been on a steep decline. The sectoral decomposition shows that the decline in the trend was initially due to decline in core goods and non-housing services inflation; in the last three months, however, a substantial moderation in housing played the biggest role.

To be more precise, the trend in housing inflation declined to 6.6 percent in April from 6.9 percent in March (this value was itself revised down from 8.3 percent) following the moderation in monthly inflation readings. The trends in goods and services also continued to decline. The contribution of housing inflation to the increase in the persistent component of inflation from the onset of the pandemic, at about 0.5 percentage point (ppt), is now below the cumulative contribution of services ex-housing (0.7 ppt) and above that of goods (0.3 ppt), as shown in the following chart.

Inflation Trend Decomposition: Sector Aggregates

Line chart showing the MCT inflation trend decomposition by sector from 2017 to April 2023. The trends in housing, goods and services inflation continued to decline in April.
Source: Estimates based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
Note: The base for the calculation of the contribution to the change in the Multivariate Core Trend is the average over the period January 2017-December 2019.

It is worth noting that the MCT model has a somewhat optimistic reading of April inflation data, since it “looks through” the April pickup in core goods and core services, as measured by the twelve-month data (see the panel chart below).

Sectoral Inflation: PCE vs. Trend Component

Three-panel line charts showing both March 2023 and April 2023 estimates of the trend component of inflation for three sectors (goods, housing, and services excluding housing) over the period 2017-present. The data are plotted with the respective YoY PCE sectoral inflation for comparison.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; authors’ calculations.
Note: PCE is personal consumption expenditure.

Finally, in terms of the source of inflation persistence, in our previous posts we documented an important difference across sectors: core goods and services ex-housing persistence was driven mostly by the common component and the sector-specific trend dominated housing inflation. This assessment still holds broadly, but the recent MCT estimates provide new insights. First, while the sector-specific component is still predominant in the housing inflation trend, a common component is detected as well (which peaked in early 2022 and is now declining in line with the common component of core goods and services ex-housing). Second, a sector-specific component has now emerged in the services ex-housing inflation and it is increasing. These insights can be seen in the next chart.

Finer Inflation Trend Decomposition

Liberty Street Economics chart decomposing the common and sector-specific source of inflation persistence for the goods, services excluding housing, and housing sectors.
Source: Estimates based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
Note: The base for the calculation of the contribution to the change in the Multivariate Core Trend is the average over the period January 2017-December 2019.

We will provide a new update of the MCT and its sectoral insights after the release of May PCE data.

Chart data

Martín Almuzara is a research economist in Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.

Babur Kocaoglu is a senior research analyst in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.

Argia Sbordone is the head of Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.  

How to cite this post:
Martin Almuzara, Babur Kocaoglu, and Argia Sbordone, “MCT Update: Inflation Persistence Declined Significantly in April,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, June 2, 2023, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/06/mct-update-inflation-persistence-declined-significantly-in-april/.


Disclaimer
The views expressed in this post are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author(s).

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One-third of all CFTC crypto enforcement actions took place this year — Chairman Behnam

CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam told an audience at the Financial Industry Association Expo about the agency’s activity in the crypto space and its need…

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CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam told an audience at the Financial Industry Association Expo about the agency’s activity in the crypto space and its need for modern legislation.

United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam highlighted his agency’s activity in the cryptosphere and the need for up-to-date legislation at the Financial Industry Association Expo 2023 event in Chicago. He described the CFTC Enforcement Division’s efforts as a “nonstop drumbeat.”

In the text version of his keynote address to the industry group, Behnam recounted the $6 billion his agency collected in penalties in fiscal year 2023. He added:

“45 of those [enforcement] actions this fiscal year involved digital asset-related misconduct, representing over 34% of the 131 such actions brought by the commission since 2015.”

Behnam singled out the “precedent-setting litigation” his agency won against Ooki DAO, which resulted in the closure of the decentralized autonomous organization and netted a $643,542 penalty. In its default judgment against Ooki DAO, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California found that the DAO was a “person” under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) of 1936.

Behnam returned to the CEA when he discussed the agency’s future direction. “The cornerstone of our latest era is disintermediation brought about by groundbreaking technology: DeFi, AI and standard WiFi,” he said, but:

“The limits in the CEA established in essentially another era create real barriers to engaging in rulemakings and policy that is necessary to our mission, but just beyond our scope.”

Furthermore, those limits force the agency “to engage in increasingly resource-intensive quests for assurances that we are acting within the bounds of our intended remit.”

Vertical integration — an “outgrowth of electronification and the promise of DeFi” — is occurring throughout financial markets and leading to regulatory concerns, and “customer protections mean something different now,” according to Behnam.

Related: CFTC commissioner calls for crypto regulatory pilot program

Behnam’s statements contrasted sharply with Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler’s position that existing financial legislation “has been quite a benefit to investors and economic growth over the last 90 years” and should not be tampered with.

Behnam also indirectly addressed limitations on the CFTC’s enforcement authority. “To suggest that […] we must wait until victims suffer and cry out for help to be proactive […] undermines our mission and purpose,” he said. “I have continued to advocate for additional authority in the crypto space,” he later added.

Magazine: Cleaning up crypto: How much enforcement is too much?

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Volatility Shares cancels ETH futures ETF launch, ‘didn’t see the opportunity at this point in time’

The company’s co-founder and president, Justin Young, told Cointelegraph in an email that plans to launch at a later date were “TBD.”

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The company’s co-founder and president, Justin Young, told Cointelegraph in an email that plans to launch at a later date were “TBD.”

Volatility Shares, a financial firm offering a range of exchange-traded fund (ETF) products, canceled its plans to launch an Ether (ETH) futures ETF on Oct. 2, citing changes in the market. 

In an email with Cointelegraph, the company’s co-founder and president, Justin Young, confirmed the cancellation:

“You are correct — we did not launch today. We didn’t see the opportunity at this point in time.”

However, when asked if the company still planned to launch an ETH futures ETF at a later date, Young responded, “Of course,” adding that “plans are TBD.”

Ether futures ETFs track the prices of ETH futures contracts — agreements to trade the asset at a specific time and price in the future. Essentially, they allow investors to be involved in ETH trading without having to actually hold any of the cryptocurrency.

Related: SEC continues to delay decisions on crypto ETFs: Law Decoded

Volatility Shares was previously positioned to be the first firm to offer an ETH futures ETF. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission was expected to approve the first such product on Oct. 12, but concerns over the previously impending Oct. 1 U.S. government shutdown reportedly prompted the SEC to move the timeline for approval up.

As of Oct. 2, several firms have begun trading ETH futures ETFs, including Valkyrie, VanEck, ProShares and Bitwise.

As Cointelegraph’s Turner Wright recently wrote, “Bills for the good or ill of digital assets would be halted amid a shutdown, and financial regulators, including the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission, would be running on a skeleton crew.”

In a twist, the U.S. government managed to avoid the shutdown by passing a stopgap measure to keep services funded through Nov. 17, with the Senate voting 88-9 to pass the measure. U.S. President Joe Biden signed it into law immediately.

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Class-action suit filed against Binance for alleged harm to FTX before its collapse

A California resident is suing Binance and its CEO for tweets last November that, according to allegations, led to the collapse of the rival exchange….

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A California resident is suing Binance and its CEO for tweets last November that, according to allegations, led to the collapse of the rival exchange.

A class-action suit was filed against Binance.US and Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao on Oct. 2 in the District Court of Northern California alleging various violations of federal and California law on unfair competition for attempting to monopolize the cryptocurrency market by harming its competitor FTX. The suit was brought by Nir Lahav, who is identified only as a California resident. 

At issue are posts made by Zhao on Twitter (now X) in early November on the eve of FTX’s collapse. The posts were made in conjunction with the decision by the defendants to liquidate their holdings in the FTX utility token FTT on Nov. 6. The plaintiffs estimated that Binance owned up to 5% of all FTT tokens.

Suit filed against Binance and Changpeng Zhao. Source: CourtListener

The following day, Zhao stated in a Twitter post that Binance had signed a letter of intent to acquire FTX, but it backed out of that deal one day later. According to the suit:

“Zhao publicly disseminated this information [on the withdrawal of the acquisition offer] on twitter and other social media platforms to hurt FTX Entities that ultimately lead to a rushed and unprecedented collapse of FTX Entities.”

After began its argumentation with a defense of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) policies on crypto and invocation of the Supreme Court’s Howey and Reves decisions, among others.

It went on to claim that Zhao’s Nov. 6 tweet, “Due to recent revelations that have came [sic] to light, we have decided to liquidate any remaining FTT on our books,” was false and misleading, since Binance has already sold its FTT holdings, and the post was “intended to cause the price of FTT in the market to decline.”

Related: New FTX documentary to spotlight SBF-CZ relationship

The plaintiffs found evidence for their claim in the same post by Zhao, where he wrote, “We are not against anyone. […] But we won’t support people who lobby against other industry players behind their backs.” The plaintiffs took the latter sentence to indicate that Binance opposed FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s “regulatory efforts.”

The suit alleges that Zhao’s proposal to acquire FTX was not made in good faith and the episode would “ultimately lead” to the collapse of FTX:

“Zhao’s tweet resulted in FTT price declining from US 23.1510 to US 3.1468. This significant drop plummeted FTX Entities into bankruptcy without giving an opportunity or chance to FTX Entities’ executives and board of directors a chance [sic] to salvage the situation and put in safe guards to protect its clients and end-users.”

The suit demanded monetary damages, court costs and disgorgement of ill-gotten gains based on seven counts. “Plaintiff believes that there are thousands of members of the proposed class,” the suit stated.

As the suit noted, both Binance and FTX are currently subject to SEC actions. The criminal case against Bankman-Fried will begin Oct. 4 in New York. Zhao addressed potential accusations of unfair competition in the same tweet that is cited in the suit. “Regarding any speculation as to whether this is a move against a competitor, it is not,” he wrote.

His statement did not stop speculation to that effect within the crypto community, however. The CEOs of the crypto exchanges traded jibes on then-Twitter for weeks afterward.

Magazine: FTX bankruptcy filing details, Binance’s crypto industry fund and a U.S. CBDC pilot: Hodler’s Digest, Nov. 13-19

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