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MCAN FINANCIAL GROUP ANNOUNCES Q3 2022 RESULTS AND DECLARES $0.36 REGULAR CASH DIVIDEND

MCAN FINANCIAL GROUP ANNOUNCES Q3 2022 RESULTS AND DECLARES $0.36 REGULAR CASH DIVIDEND
Canada NewsWire
TORONTO, Nov. 10, 2022

TORONTO, Nov. 10, 2022 /CNW/ – MCAN Mortgage Corporation d/b/a MCAN Financial Group (“MCAN”, the “Company” or “we”) (TSX:…

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MCAN FINANCIAL GROUP ANNOUNCES Q3 2022 RESULTS AND DECLARES $0.36 REGULAR CASH DIVIDEND

Canada NewsWire

TORONTO, Nov. 10, 2022 /CNW/ - MCAN Mortgage Corporation d/b/a MCAN Financial Group ("MCAN", the "Company" or "we") (TSX: MKP) reported net income of $11.7 million ($0.37 earnings per share) for the third quarter of 2022, a decrease from net income of $13.0 million ($0.47 earnings per share) in the third quarter of 2021. Third quarter 2022 return on average shareholders' equity1 was 10.52% compared to 13.22% in the prior year.  Year to date, we reported net income of $31.3 million ($1.01 earnings per share), a decrease from net income of $48.3 million ($1.84 earnings per share) in 2021. Year to date return on average shareholders' equity1 was 9.47% compared to 17.40% in the prior year.  We reported lower total net income mainly as a result of unrealized fair value losses on our REIT portfolio due to the current market environment partially offset by growth in our core mortgage and lending business.  Our net corporate mortgage spread income1 increased by $3.8 million from Q3 2021 and $11.2 million from year to date 2021. We are pleased with that and it affirms our strategy going into these economic headwinds of working on controllable factors to protect our bottom line.  Unrealized fair value gains and losses on our REIT portfolio were a $5.0 million unrealized loss ($0.16 loss per share) for the third quarter of 2022 and a $12.0 million unrealized loss ($0.39 loss per share) year to date 2022 compared to a $1.0 million unrealized gain ($0.04 earnings per share) for the third quarter of 2021 and a $11.4 million unrealized gain ($0.43 earnings per share) for year to date 2021.  Excluding the unrealized fair value gains and losses on our REIT portfolio, current net income would have been higher for the quarter and year to date compared to prior year.  While we expect continued volatility in the REIT market, we are invested for the long-term and we continue to realize the benefits of solid cash flows and distributions from these investments.  

The Board of Directors declared a fourth quarter regular cash dividend of $0.36 per share to be paid January 3, 2023 to shareholders of record as of December 15, 2022.  As a mortgage investment corporation, we pay out all of our taxable income to shareholders through dividends.  At this time, we do not expect to have taxable income per share greater than our regular cash dividends per share.

"Our third quarter results from our core lending business were in line with our expectations and affirm our strategy of protecting our net mortgage interest. The current rising interest rate environment, housing market challenges and inflation are all causing uncertainty in the Canadian economy," said Karen Weaver, President and Chief Executive Officer. "Our business has various levers and attributes that are positive for managing net mortgage interest income in a rising interest rate environment including the one year term of our uninsured residential mortgages, the primarily floating rates on our construction portfolio and realigning the duration of our term deposit funding.  We remain focused on achieving solid margins in our mortgage and lending business and, where possible, rebalancing within our risk appetite, to higher yielding construction products for affordable housing, for which there is still strong demand in Canada's supply constrained urban markets."

Highlights

  • Corporate assets totalled $2.27 billion at September 30, 2022, a net increase of $111 million (5%) from December 31, 2021 driven mainly by growth in our major assets:
    • Construction and commercial mortgages totalled $879 million at September 30, 2022, a net increase of $102 million (13%) from December 31, 2021. Construction and commercial mortgage originations totalled $414 million year to date 2022, a decrease of $155 million (27%) from the same period in 2021. We will look to rebalance through the remainder of this year and next year, if possible, to a higher proportion of construction and commercial loans that fit within our risk appetite and capital requirements.

    • Uninsured residential mortgages totalled $848 million at September 30, 2022, a net increase of $65 million (8%) from December 31, 2021. Uninsured residential mortgage originations totalled $320 million year to date 2022, a decrease of $96 million (23%) from the same period in 2021. We are also actively rebalancing to a lower proportion of uninsured residential mortgage originations compared to higher yielding residential construction loans.

    • Non-marketable securities totalled $93 million at September 30, 2022, an increase of $28 million (44%) from December 31, 2021 with $86 million of remaining capital advances expected to fund mainly over the next five years. 

    • Marketable securities totalled $52 million at September 30, 2022, a net decrease of $11 million (17%) from December 31, 2021 comprised of $7 million of REIT purchases net of $4 million of REIT sales and $14 million of net realized and unrealized fair value losses. 
  • Securitized mortgages totalled $1.69 billion at September 30, 2022, a net increase of $108 million (7%) from December 31, 2021 primarily due to continued originations and securitization volumes:
    • Insured residential mortgage originations totalled $499 million year to date 2022, a decrease of $135 million (21%) from the same period in 2021.  This includes $184 million of insured residential mortgage commitments originated and sold compared to $65 million in 2021.  We launched our insured adjustable rate residential mortgage product in Q1 2022. Unlike traditional insured variable rate mortgages, payments on our insured adjustable rate residential mortgages increase or adjust as interest rates rise with no changes to loan amortization.  We also underwrite our insured adjustable rate mortgages for credit quality accordingly and our borrowers expect their payments under this new product to change as interest rates rise.  Insured residential mortgage securitizations totalled $314 million year to date 2022, a decrease of $268 million (46%) from the same period in 2021.  We decreased our insured residential mortgage originations and securitization volumes and increased the volume of our insured residential mortgage commitment sales given the extremely tight and even negative securitization spreads.  We use various channels in the insured residential mortgage market, in the context of market conditions and net contributions over the life of the mortgages, in order to support our overall business. 

Financial Update

  • Net corporate mortgage spread income1 increased by $3.8 million for Q3 2022 from Q3 2021 and increased $11.2 million for year to date 2022 from 2021 mainly due to a higher average corporate mortgage portfolio balance.  For Q3 2022, there was an increase in the spread of corporate mortgages over term deposit interest and expenses from Q3 2021 due to a larger increase in average mortgage rates, including our floating rate residential construction mortgages, compared to the increase in average term deposit rates due to  actual and expected Bank of Canada rate increases.  For year to date 2022, there was a decrease in the spread of corporate mortgages over term deposit interest and expenses from year to date 2021 mainly due to (i) an increase in average term deposit rates as a result of the same factors as for Q3 2022 mentioned above, as well as dislocation in the term deposit market at the start of the Russia/Ukraine conflict which caused increased demand by financial institutions for term deposit funding; and (ii) a decrease in our average mortgage rates from continued market competition keeping mortgage rates low in our residential mortgage portfolio.

  • Net securitized mortgage spread income1 decreased by $0.5 million for Q3 2022 from Q3 2021 and decreased $1.1 million for year to date 2022 over the same period in 2021 mainly due to a decrease in the spread of securitized mortgages over liabilities partially offset by a higher average securitized mortgage portfolio balance from originations of insured residential mortgages.  We have seen the spread of securitized mortgages over liabilities decline on securitizations in 2022 mainly as a result of a larger increase in average securitization liability interest expense, from significantly increasing Government of Canada bond yields as we have entered a rising interest rate environment, compared to the increase in our average mortgage rates.

  • For Q3 2022, we had a provision for credit losses on our corporate mortgage portfolio of $0.9 million compared to a recovery of credit losses of $0.1 million in Q3 2021.  For year to date 2022, we had a provision for credit losses on our corporate mortgage portfolio of $27 thousand compared to a recovery of credit losses of $0.3 million for year to date 2021. For 2022, the provisions were mainly due to the shift in economic forecasts from the pandemic to the recent uncertainty around inflation and the rising interest rate environment as well as growth in our portfolio.  For 2021, the recoveries were mainly due to economic forecasts being more optimistic amid vaccine roll-outs at that time.

  • Equity income from MCAP Commercial LP ("MCAP") totalled $8.2 million in Q3 2022, an increase of $2.6 million (47%) from $5.6 million in Q3 2021, and totalled $19.7 million for year to date 2022, an increase of $0.5 million (3%) from $19.2 million year to date 2021. The increase in both the quarter and year to date was primarily due to higher servicing and administration revenue resulting from higher assets under management, and higher financial instrument gains resulting from (i) hedge gains; (ii) favourable fair value adjustments; and (iii) lower hedge costs.  These were partially offset by (i) lower net interest income on securitized mortgages due to compressed spreads as a result of the rising interest rate environment; (ii) lower mortgage origination fees from lower spreads and origination volumes due to market conditions; (iii) higher interest expense; and (iv) higher operating expenses mainly attributed to higher headcount.   

  • In Q3 2022, we recorded a $5.1 million net unrealized loss on securities compared to a $1.0 million net unrealized gain on securities in Q3 2021. Year to date net realized and unrealized loss on securities was $13.8 million for 2022 compared to a year to date net unrealized gain on securities of $11.4 million for 2021. We are seeing continued declines in REIT prices from the rising interest rate environment and current geopolitical conflicts compared to optimism in 2021 around vaccine roll-outs. While we expect continued volatility in the REIT market, we are invested for the long-term and we continue to realize the benefits of solid cash flows and distributions from these investments. In Q1 2022, one REIT in our portfolio had a mandatory corporate action resulting in privatization and as such we recognized a $1.8 million realized loss.   

Credit Quality

  • Impaired corporate mortgage ratio1 was 0.00% at September 30, 2022 compared to 0.01% at June 30, 2022 and 0.05% at December 31, 2021.  

  • Impaired total mortgage ratio1 was 0.01% at September 30, 2022 compared to 0.02% at June 30, 2022 and 0.03% at December 31, 2021. 

  • Arrears total mortgage ratio1 was 1.11% at September 30, 2022 compared to 0.36% at June 30, 2022 and 0.46% at December 31, 2021.  The increase in the arrears total mortgage ratio is primarily due to two construction mortgages where asset recovery programs are being initiated and we expect to recover all past due interest and principal.  We have a strong track record with our asset recovery program should the need arise. Our realized loan losses on our construction portfolio have been negligible in the last 10 years.       

  • Average loan to value ratio ("LTV") of our uninsured residential mortgage portfolio based on an industry index of current real estate values was 58.1% at September 30, 2022 compared to 58.1% at June 30, 2022 and 60.3% at December 31, 2021.

Capital

  • In 2021, we filed a Prospectus Supplement to our Base Shelf prospectus establishing an at-the-market equity program ("ATM Program") to issue up to $30 million common shares to the public from time to time over a 2 year period at the market prices prevailing at the time of sale. The volume and timing of distributions under the ATM Program will be determined at our sole discretion. During Q3 2022, we sold 600 common shares at a weighted average price of $17.10 for gross and net proceeds of $11 thousand.  Year to date 2022, we sold 236,600 common shares at a weighted average price of $17.88 for gross proceeds of $4.2 million and net proceeds of $4.1 million including $85 thousand of commission paid to our agent and $30 thousand of other share issuance costs under the ATM Program. 

  • We issued $28.8 million in new common shares on March 31, 2022 from our 2022 first quarter special stock dividend to shareholders.

  • We issued $2.0 million in new common shares in Q3 2022 (Q3 2021 - $1.4 million) and $7.4 million year to date 2022 ($5.8 million - year to date 2021) through the Dividend Reinvestment Plan ("DRIP").  The DRIP participation rate for the 2022 third quarter dividend was 17% (2022 second quarter - 17%; 2021 third quarter - 17%).  The DRIP is a program that has historically provided MCAN with a reliable source of new capital and existing shareholders an opportunity to acquire additional shares at a discount to market value. 

  • Income tax assets to capital ratio3 was 5.76 at September 30, 2022 compared to 5.53 at June 30, 2022 and 5.29 at December 31, 2021.

  • Common Equity Tier 1 ("CET 1") and Tier 1 Capital to risk-weighted assets ratios2 were 18.35% at September 30, 2022 compared to 18.82% at June 30, 2022 and 20.26% at December 31, 2021. Total Capital to risk-weighted assets ratio2 was 18.64% at September 30, 2022 compared to 19.09% at June 30, 2022 and 20.54% at December 31, 2021. 

  • Leverage ratio2 was 8.88% at September 30, 2022 compared to 8.82% at June 30, 2022 and 9.41% at December 31, 2021.

1 

Considered to be a non-GAAP and other financial measure. For further details, refer to the "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures" section of this new release.  Non-GAAP and other financial measures and ratios used in this document are not defined terms under IFRS and, therefore, may not be comparable to similar terms used by other issuers.

2

These measures have been calculated in accordance with OSFI's Leverage Requirements and Capital Adequacy Requirements guidelines.  Effective March 31, 2020, the total capital ratio reflects the inclusion of stage 1 and stage 2 allowances on the Company's mortgage portfolio in Tier 2 capital. In accordance with OSFI's transitional arrangements for capital treatment of ECL issued March 27, 2020, a portion of stage 1 and stage 2 allowances that would otherwise be included in Tier 2 capital are included in CET 1 capital. The adjustment to CET 1 capital will be measured each quarter as the increase, if any, in stage 1 and stage 2 allowances compared to the corresponding allowances at December 31, 2019. The increase, if any, is subject to a scaling factor that will decrease over time and was 70% in fiscal 2020, 50% in fiscal 2021 and is set at 25% in fiscal 2022.

3 

Tax balances are calculated in accordance with the Tax Act.

Further Information

Complete copies of the Company's 2022 Third Quarter Report will be filed on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval ("SEDAR") at www.sedar.com and on the Company's website at www.mcanfinancial.com.

For our Outlook, refer to the "Outlook" section of the 2022 Third Quarter Report.

MCAN is a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol MKP and is a reporting issuer in all provinces and territories in Canada.  MCAN also qualifies as a mortgage investment corporation ("MIC") under the Income Tax Act (Canada) (the "Tax Act"). 

The Company's primary objective is to generate a reliable stream of income by investing in a diversified portfolio of Canadian mortgages, including residential, residential construction, non-residential construction and commercial loans, as well as other types of securities, loans and real estate investments. MCAN employs leverage by issuing term deposits that are eligible for Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation deposit insurance that are sourced through a network of independent financial agents. We manage our capital and asset balances based on the regulations and limits of both the Tax Act and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada ("OSFI").

As a MIC, we are entitled to deduct the dividends that we pay to shareholders from our taxable income.  Regular dividends are treated as interest income to shareholders for income tax purposes.  We are also able to pay capital gains dividends, which would be treated as capital gains to shareholders for income tax purposes. Dividends paid to foreign investors may be subject to withholding taxes.  To meet the MIC criteria, 67% of our non-consolidated assets measured on a tax basis are required to be held in cash or cash equivalents and residential mortgages.

Our MCAN Home division operates through MCAN's wholly owned subsidiary, XMC Mortgage Corporation, which has legally changed its name effective April 1, 2022, to MCAN Home Mortgage Corporation. 

For how to enroll in the DRIP, please refer to the Management Information Circular dated March 11, 2022 or visit our website at www.mcanfinancial.com.  Under the DRIP, dividends paid to shareholders are automatically reinvested in common shares issued out of treasury at the weighted average trading price for the five days preceding such issue less a discount of 2%.

Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures

This news release references a number of non-GAAP and other financial measures and ratios to assess our performance such as return on average shareholders' equity, net corporate mortgage spread income, net securitized mortgage spread income, impaired corporate mortgage ratio, impaired total mortgage ratio, and arrears total mortgage ratio.  These measures are not calculated in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS"), are not defined by IFRS and do not have standardized meanings that would ensure consistency and comparability between companies using these measures.  These metrics are considered to be non-GAAP and other financial measures and are incorporated by reference and defined in the "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures" section of our 2022 Third Quarter MD&A available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Below are reconciliations for our non-GAAP financial measures included in this news release using the most directly comparable IFRS financial measures.

Net Corporate Mortgage Spread Income 
Non-GAAP financial measure that is an indicator of net interest profitability of income-earning assets less cost of funding for our corporate mortgage portfolio.  It is calculated as the difference between corporate mortgage interest and term deposit interest and expenses.

(in thousands)

Q3

Q3

Change

YTD

YTD

Change

For the Periods Ended September 30

2022

2021

($)

2022

2021

($)

Mortgage interest - corporate assets

$     27,216

$     19,072


$     70,539

$     51,387


Term deposit interest and expenses

12,330

8,013


31,033

23,041


Net Corporate Mortgage Spread Income

$     14,886

$     11,059

$       3,827

$     39,506

$     28,346

$     11,160

Net Securitized Mortgage Spread Income
Non-GAAP financial measure that is an indicator of net interest profitability of income-earning securitization assets less cost of securitization liabilities for our securitized mortgage portfolio.  It is calculated as the difference between securitized mortgage interest and interest on financial liabilities from securitization. 

(in thousands)

Q3

Q3

Change

YTD

YTD

Change

For the Periods Ended September 30

2022

2021

($)

2022

2021

($)

Mortgage interest - securitized assets

$       7,949

$       7,478


$     22,804

$     21,376


Interest on financial liabilities from securitization

6,214

5,222


17,096

14,561


Net Securitized Mortgage Spread Income

$       1,735

$       2,256

$        (521)

$       5,708

$       6,815

$     (1,107)

A Caution About Forward-looking Information and Statements

This news release contains forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws.  All information contained in this news release, other than statements of current and historical fact, is forward-looking information. All of the forward-looking information in this news release is qualified by this cautionary note. Often, but not always, forward-looking information can be identified by the use of words such as "may," "believe," "will," "anticipate," "expect," "planned," "estimate," "project," "future," and variations of these or similar words or other expressions that are predictions of, or indicate, future events and trends and that do not relate to historical matters. Forward-looking information in this news release includes, among others, statements and assumptions with respect to:

  • the current business environment, economic environment and outlook;
  • the impact of global health pandemics on the Canadian economy and globally;  
  • possible or assumed future results; 
  • our ability to create shareholder value; 
  • our business goals and strategy; 
  • the potential impact of new regulations and changes to existing regulations; 
  • the stability of home prices; 
  • the effect of challenging conditions on us; 
  • the performance of our investments;
  • factors affecting our competitive position within the housing lending market; 
  • international trade and geopolitical uncertainties and their impact on the Canadian economy, including the Russia/Ukraine conflict; 
  • sufficiency of our access to capital resources; 
  • the timing and effect of interest rate changes on our cash flows; and
  • the declaration and payment of dividends. 

Forward-looking information is not, and cannot be, a guarantee of future results or events. Forward-looking information reflects management's current beliefs and is based on information currently available to management. Forward-looking information is based on, among other things, opinions, assumptions, estimates and analyses that, while considered reasonable by us at the date the forward-looking information is provided, inherently are subject to significant risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other factors that may cause actual results and events to be materially different from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking information. 

The material factors or assumptions that we identified and were applied by us in drawing conclusions or making forecasts or projections set out in the forward-looking information, include, but are not limited to: 

  • our ability to successfully implement and realize on our business goals and strategy; 
  • government regulation of our business and the cost to us of such regulation;  
  • the economic and social impact, management, and duration of a pandemic;
  • factors and assumptions regarding interest rates, including the effect of Bank of Canada actions already taken; 
  • the effect of supply chain issues;
  • the effect of inflation;
  • housing sales and residential mortgage borrowing activities; 
  • the effect of household debt service levels;
  • the effect of competition; 
  • systems failure or cyber and security breaches; 
  • the availability of funding and capital to meet our requirements; 
  • investor appetite for securitization products;
  • the value of mortgage originations; 
  • the expected spread between interest earned on mortgage portfolios and interest paid on deposits; 
  • the relative uncertainty and volatility of real estate markets; 
  • acceptance of our products in the marketplace; 
  • the stage of the real estate cycle and the maturity phase of the mortgage market; 
  • impact on housing demand from changing population demographics and immigration patterns; 
  • our ability to forecast future changes to borrower credit and credit scores, loan to value ratios and other forward-looking factors used in assessing expected credit losses and rates of default; 
  • availability of key personnel; 
  • our operating cost structure; 
  • the current tax regime; and
  • operations within, and market conditions relating to, our equity and other investments. 

External conflicts such as the Russia/Ukraine conflict and post-pandemic government and Bank of Canada actions taken, have resulted in uncertainty relating to the Company's internal expectations, estimates, projections, assumptions and beliefs, including with respect to the Canadian economy, employment conditions, interest rates, supply chain issues, inflation, levels of housing activity and household debt service levels. There can be no assurance that such expectations, estimates, projections, assumptions and beliefs will continue to be valid.  The impact the previous pandemic or any further variants or outbreaks, including measures to prevent their spread and related government actions adopted in response thereto, will have on our business continues to be uncertain and difficult to predict. 

Reliance should not be placed on forward-looking information because it involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause actual results to differ materially from anticipated future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking information. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking information include, but are not limited to, the risks and uncertainties referred to in our Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2021, our MD&A and our other public filings with the applicable Canadian regulatory authorities.

Subject to applicable securities law requirements, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking information after the date of this news release whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise or to explain any material difference between subsequent actual events and any forward-looking information. However, any further disclosures made on related subjects in subsequent reports should be consulted.

SOURCE MCAN Mortgage Corporation

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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