Overnight, U.S. stocks posted their strongest rally in years, after the country’s October consumer price data provided further confirmation inflation has indeed peaked. These are big moves that investors cannot afford to miss, which is why we will continue to generally advise being greedy when others are fearful.
If you’ve missed it, we have also explained the arithmetic of investing in companies generating double-digit earnings growth when P/E ratios are compressed. We’ve shown how buying and selling, on the same P/E ratio, a company’s shares will generate a return equal to the earnings per share growth the company generates. This should reinforce the need to invest in companies with strong earnings growth when P/E ratios are compressed. You can read the post hereIs it time to hit the buy button?
Overnight, U.S. stocks posted their strongest rally in years, after the country’s October consumer price data provided further confirmation inflation has indeed peaked. October’s U.S. consumer price index rose just 0.4 per cent for the month and 7.7 per cent from a year ago, its lowest annual increase since January and a slowdown from the 8.2 per cent annual pace in September. The print was also lower than economists had forecast.
And perhaps the most reassuring sign that rates are done rising, the average rate on a U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dived 60 basis points to 6.62 per cent from 7.22 per cent yesterday, according to Mortgage News Daily. The drop matches the record single-day fall at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 1,201.43 points, or 3.7 per cent for the day. It was the largest single-day rise in the Dow since the recovery from the worst of the COVID-19 bear market. Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 leapt 5.54 per cent – its largest rally since April 2020, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 7.35 per cent.
These are returns that are sometimes posted by the major indices for 12 months. Indeed, there have been 29 years since 1872 that the S&P500 has rallied between five and 10 per cent. Such returns over a day are rare but they are also reinforce the importance of being greedy when others are fearful.
Figure 1. Cost of missing the 20 best days
Source: Fidelity International
Figure 1., demonstrates how a $10,000 investment on 31 October 2003 would have performed if fully invested versus the same investment with the 20 best days missed. The chart uses the MSCI North America index in Australian dollars unhedged as the proxy for returns.
One can immediately see the value in remaining invested. What it doesn’t show of course is the boost to returns when the investors add to their holdings during periods of heightened fear, such as we have experienced recently.
Tying all of the above together, I have explained in previous posts how I have been using the fear-inspired 50 per cent decline in the value of the Polen Capital Global Small and Mid Cap Fund, run by Rob Forker in Boston, to add to my investment personally in that Fund. When Rob was in Australia for our client dinners and webinars, he noted the aggregate earnings per share growth rate of the portfolio was over 20 per cent. Despite this strong forecast growth, the unit price of the Fund had halved, thanks to the collapse in the share prices.
Some of the holdings in the Polen Capital Global Small and Mid Cap Fund include the U.S. esky/cooler company with a cult following, Yeti, and the credit scoring company Fair Isaac Corp., the ecommerce company Revolve, and pick and shovel supplier to the life sciences industry, Azenta.
Overnight, Yeti rallied almost 32 per cent, Fair Isaac surged 31 per cent, Revolve was up almost 22 per cent and Azenta rose 16 per cent.
These are big moves that investors cannot afford to miss, which is why we will continue to generally advise being greedy when others are fearful.
Figure 2. Yeti Share price in $USD
And fear remains, so there is still plenty of opportunity. As Figure 2 demonstrates, while Yeti rallied 31 per cent overnight, it is a long way from the heady days of the boom.
Investors who are considering taking advantage of fear, haven’t missed out entirely. There is still a great deal of uncertainty on which to feast.
Buying when P/E ratios are compressed is wise, buying such companies when they are also generating double digit earnings growth is even wiser, and knowing that in the next five or ten years we will see a period of exuberance that will have P/E ratios much higher than they are today is perhaps the wisest of all.
If you would like to learn more about the Polen Capital Global Small and Mid Cap Fund, please visit the fund’s web page to learn more: Polen Capital Global Small and Mid Cap Fund
The Polen Capital Global Small and Mid Cap Fund own shares in Yeti, Fair Isaac Corp, Revolve and Azenta.This article was prepared 11 November 2022 with the information we have today, and our view may change. It does not constitute formal advice or professional investment advice. If you wish to trade these companies you should seek financial advice.
Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Returns are not guaranteed and so the value of an investment may rise or fall.
This report has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking into account your particular objectives, financial circumstances or needs. You should obtain and consider a copy of the Product Disclosure Document (‘PDS’) relating to the Fund before making a decision to invest. The PDS and Target Market Determination (‘TMD’)are available here: https://www.montinvest.com/our-funds/polen-capital-global-small-and-mid-cap-fund/and here: https://fundhost.com.au/While the information in this document has been prepared with all reasonable care, neither Fundhost nor Montgomery makes any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in this document including any forecasts. Neither Fundhost nor Montgomery guarantees the performance of the Fund or the repayment of any investor’s capital. To the extent permitted by law, neither Fundhost nor Montgomery, including their employees, consultants, advisers, officers or authorised representatives, are liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance placed on the contents of this report. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals.
Credit: Impact Journals
BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals.
Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”
Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Agingteam.
About Aging-US:
Agingpublishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.
Agingis indexed and archived byPubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed Central, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).
Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com and connect with us:
NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism
One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%.
The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.
Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.
We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.
At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.
Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."
Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.
Turning to household finance, we find the following:
The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."
Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months
Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.
Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more
New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…
A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more.
The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia.
Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.
The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later.
The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.
The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.
Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing.
Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year.
Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.
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