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Markets Turn Cautious Ahead of the Weekend

Overview: With US warning about a "vertical escalation" by a stymied Moscow and the EU cautioning that Beijing may send semiconductors and other tech…

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Overview: With US warning about a "vertical escalation" by a stymied Moscow and the EU cautioning that Beijing may send semiconductors and other tech hardware to Russia, it is little wonder that risk appetites are being curtailed ahead of the weekend.  Japanese eked out a small gain, most the major bourses in the Asia Pacific region were lower.  Of note the Hang Seng's 2.4% fall left its virtually flat on the week.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is flat after posting two losing sessions. consecutive sessions. US futures are narrowly mixed.  Benchmark yields are a couple of basis points lower, putting the US 10-year around 2.36%. European yields are 2-4 bp softer. Following a firmer than expected Tokyo March CPI, the 10-year JGB yield rose to a new high, just shy of 0.24%.  In the foreign exchange market, the cautious risk stance is evident with the yen and Swiss franc showing modest strength.  An exception to the risk-off is the relative strength of emerging market currencies.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is up for the fourth sessions to put the finishing touches on the second weekly advance.  Turning to commodities, gold is consolidating above $1950 and is up about 2% this week.  May WTI is off around 1.4% after falling 2.2% yesterday.  Nevertheless, it is up about 7% this week.  US natgas is softer, trying to snap a four-day advance.  It was up almost 11% this week coming into today.    Europe's natgas benchmark is more than 2% lower to pare this week's gain to about 6.5%.  Iron ore rose 3.5% to recoup this week's loss.  Copper is a little firmer to be flat on the week. The price of wheat is falling for a fourth session following a 5.2% rally to start the week.  It is up less about 1% for the week. It had fallen around 12.3% in the previous two weeks.   

Asia Pacific

Tokyo's CPI accelerated this month as the weaker yen and higher commodity prices fed through.  The 1.3% headline increase was slightly stronger than expected.  Excluding fresh food, the core measure edged up to 0.8% from 0.5%.  Electricity, gas, and imported food lifted the core measure.  Excluding fresh food and energy, the deflationary pressures slackened to -0.4% from -0.6%.  Meanwhile, the 10-year JGB yield approached the 0.25% cap imposed by yield-curve control and a more active defense may be necessary next week.  At the same time, Prime Minister Kishida has reportedly instructed the cabinet to put together a supplemental budget next week.

China's Security Regulatory Commission is still apparently negotiating with the America's Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. Earlier this week, Chinese accounts made is seem that a deal was imminent that would allow mainland-based companies to remain listed on US exchanges.  The issue are US laws that require audit reports to be made to authorities.  Chinese authorities appear to make some concessions but wanted to withhold some "sensitive" data.  If the US rules are flaunted for three years, the violator faces de-listing.  That could begin in 2024.  

Reports suggest China has sent Russia 30k tons of alumina following Australia's ban that provided Russia's Rusal with 40% of its alumina supply.  Another 30k tons are expected to follow quickly.  The US and Europe have cautioned China against material support for Russia.  However, officials say there is so far no evidence of Chinese assistance.  The alumina deal is being cast as a commercial transaction rather than state sponsored.  Meanwhile, China's lockdown this week of Tangshan (steel producing region) and Shandong (oil refineries) have knock-on effects that are disrupting the world's second-largest economy, with potential to further disrupt supply chains.  

The dollar is falling for the first time in six sessions.  If the 0.66% pullback is sustained, it would be the largest loss since last November.  Even with the decline, the greenback is up nearly 2% against the yen this week.  The profit-taking began after the dollar has risen to almost JPY122.50 in North America yesterday.  The pullback brings the dollar back to where it was in Tokyo on Thursday.  Initial resistance is now seen near JPY122.00.  The momentum readings are stretched, but the move does not seem complete.  The Australian dollar set a new high for the year near $0.7535 before succumbing to some light profit-taking.  It found support a little below $0.7500. Even with the pullback, it is the strongest of the major currencies this week, gaining almost 1.25%.  The intraday technical indicators favor a recover in North America.   The US dollar slipped against the Chinese yuan for the second session but is still poised to extend its gain for the fourth consecutive week.  The Chinese 10-year premium over the US narrowed by about 20 bp this week to 45 bp.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.3739, a little above projections for CNY6.3726 (Bloomberg survey).   

Europe

UK's retail sales last month were unexpectedly poor, and it plays on fears that the surge in the cost-of-living is sapping households, while the government's Spring budget offered little consolation.  The Bloomberg survey found a median forecast of a 0.7% gain, and instead, retail sales fell by 0.7%.  Excluding gasoline, retail sales fell by 0.7%.  Economists had looked for a 0.5% increase.  The risk is that things get worse.  Many households will experience a sharp price in energy bills next month, and the tax for the national health service increases too.  

On one hand, the EU and the US appear to be striking a deal for gas to begin supplanting the dependence on Russia.  Europe does not appear ready to ban energy imports from Russia and this may help explain the pullback in oil prices.  On the other hand, Europe agreed to a a Digital Markets Act, which will force large internet companies to open their platforms and compete fairer.  Many US-based companies, much to their chagrin will be forced to comply.  Of course, some large European internet companies will be subject to the new rules too.  

Hungary was the only EU country not invited to last year's US-sponsored "democracy summit."  Nevertheless, national elections will be on April 3.  Orban and his Fidesz party are seeking a fourth term.  The opposition has united behind a single candidate, Marki-Zay, who has not run an inspired campaign, and is lagging in the polls by a couple of percentage points.  Orban has pursued a pro-Russian foreign policy, pleads neutrality in the war, and will not send Ukraine weapons.   One recent poll found that 57% of Hungarians see their chief allies in the West not East. The opposition does not seem to be exploiting this effectively.   Instead, the opposition has the adoption of the euro as a key plank, and it is supported by less than half the people.  Despite the closeness of the polls, the wagers at PredictIt.Org strongly favor Fidesz (95%). 

For the fourth consecutive session, the euro remains mired in a $1.0960-$1.1045 trading range.  The sideways movement is sufficient to allow the momentum indicators to extend their correction higher.  The weakness in the German IFO survey illustrates the headwind on confidence.  The current assessment dipped slightly (97.0 vs. 98.8), but the expectations component fell to 85.1 from 98.4.  It is the lowest since May 2020 and reflects a larger decline than when the pandemic struck.  Sterling reached almost $1.33 in the middle of the week but has struggled to sustain upticks since then.  It has found support around $1.3160 but looks vulnerable.  The week's low is near $1.3120, which seems like a reasonable near-term target. 

America

Fed officials, especially Chair Powell, have couched his commitment to a more aggressive course with "if needed" or "if necessary."  Yesterday's data included should weekly jobless claims falling to their lowest level in a generation, and the preliminary March PMI that show the economy accelerating, with the composite rising to its best level in eight months. On the other hand, February durable goods disappointed.  The big drag came from the nearly 30.5% decline in civilian aircraft orders.  Non-defense and non-aircraft orders slipped 0.3% but after the upward revision to the January series to 1.3% from 1.0%.  Still, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker puts this quarter's growth at 0.9%, down from 1.2% last week as real domestic investment was downgraded.  However, the data that underscored a tight labor market, resilient economy, and elevated price pressures (PMI) saw the market grow marginally more confident of a 50 bp hike at the May FOMC meeting.  The market also edged closer to fully pricing in two 50 bp moves this year.   

Malfeasance or incompetence?  What was behind Mexico President AMLO announcement of the 50 bp rate hike by Banxico a few hours before the official announcement? He seemed confused and referred to the move as happening "yesterday."  Some read more sinister motives and see an encroachment on the central bank's independence.  Despite the chin-wagging, there was no sign that investors as a whole were put-off, and AMLO apologized. The dollar settled on its lows, a little above MXN20.07, levels not seen since last September.  The decision to hike by 50 bp was unanimous.  The lone dissenter at the last two meetings, favoring 25 bp moves, Esquivel capitulated.  The central bank nudged up its (average) inflation forecast to 6.4% this year from 6.1%, and next year from 3.4% to 3.6%.  It sees inflation peaking in Q2, but not falling back within the 3% (+/- 1%) target until Q2 23.  

Brazil reports March IPCA inflation figures today.  The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey sees it slipping to 10.69% from 10.76%. Central bank Governor Neto has signaled a 100 bp hike in the Selic Rate in May (to 12.75%).  However, following yesterday's quarterly inflation report, suggested inflation may peak soon and a rate hike in June may be unnecessary.  Bank economists ae less convinced and the swaps market sees a peak in the policy rate closer to 13.25%. 

The US dollar has fallen against the Canadian dollar for the past eight sessions coming into today. It has found support near CAD1.25 but closed below a six-month trendline yesterday and could retest it today from underneath today.  It is found around CAD1.2560.  The Slow Stochastic appears to be poised to curl higher from over-sold territory. The greenback slipped a little lower against the Mexican peso to test the MXN20.05 area, a new six-month low.  The MXN20.00 offers psychological support, but the low from last September was near MXN19.85.   The lower Bollinger Band is by MXN19.94. 


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Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Mike Pompeo Doesn’t Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Secretary…

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Mike Pompeo Doesn't Rule Out Serving In 2nd Trump Administration

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a new interview that he’s not ruling out accepting a White House position if former President Donald Trump is reelected in November.

“If I get a chance to serve and think that I can make a difference ... I’m almost certainly going to say yes to that opportunity to try and deliver on behalf of the American people,” he told Fox News, when asked during a interview if he would work for President Trump again.

I’m confident President Trump will be looking for people who will faithfully execute what it is he asked them to do,” Mr. Pompeo said during the interview, which aired on March 8. “I think as a president, you should always want that from everyone.”

Then-President Donald Trump (C), then- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L), and then-Vice President Mike Pence, take a question during the daily briefing on the novel coronavirus at the White House in Washington on April 8, 2020. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

He said that as a former secretary of state, “I certainly wanted my team to do what I was asking them to do and was enormously frustrated when I found that I couldn’t get them to do that.”

Mr. Pompeo, a former U.S. representative from Kansas, served as Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2018 before he was secretary of state from 2018 to 2021. After he left office, there was speculation that he could mount a Republican presidential bid in 2024, but announced that he wouldn’t be running.

President Trump hasn’t publicly commented about Mr. Pompeo’s remarks.

In 2023, amid speculation that he would make a run for the White House, Mr. Pompeo took a swipe at his former boss, telling Fox News at the time that “the Trump administration spent $6 trillion more than it took in, adding to the deficit.”

“That’s never the right direction for the country,” he said.

In a public appearance last year, Mr. Pompeo also appeared to take a shot at the 45th president by criticizing “celebrity leaders” when urging GOP voters to choose ahead of the 2024 election.

2024 Race

Mr. Pompeo’s interview comes as the former president was named the “presumptive nominee” by the Republican National Committee (RNC) last week after his last major Republican challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, dropped out of the 2024 race after failing to secure enough delegates. President Trump won 14 out of 15 states on Super Tuesday, with only Vermont—which notably has an open primary—going for Ms. Haley, who served as President Trump’s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

On March 8, the RNC held a meeting in Houston during which committee members voted in favor of President Trump’s nomination.

“Congratulations to President Donald J. Trump on his huge primary victory!” the organization said in a statement last week. “I’d also like to congratulate Nikki Haley for running a hard-fought campaign and becoming the first woman to win a Republican presidential contest.”

Earlier this year, the former president criticized the idea of being named the presumptive nominee after reports suggested that the RNC would do so before the Super Tuesday contests and while Ms. Haley was still in the race.

Also on March 8, the RNC voted to name Trump-endorsed officials to head the organization. Michael Whatley, a North Carolina Republican, was elected the party’s new national chairman in a vote in Houston, and Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, was voted in as co-chair.

“The RNC is going to be the vanguard of a movement that will work tirelessly every single day to elect our nominee, Donald J. Trump, as the 47th President of the United States,” Mr. Whatley told RNC members in a speech after being elected, replacing former chair Ronna McDaniel. Ms. Trump is expected to focus largely on fundraising and media appearances.

President Trump hasn’t signaled whom he would appoint to various federal agencies if he’s reelected in November. He also hasn’t said who his pick for a running mate would be, but has offered several suggestions in recent interviews.

In various interviews, the former president has mentioned Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, among others.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:00

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Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Riley Gaines Explains How Women’s Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and…

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Riley Gaines Explains How Women's Sports Are Rigged To Promote The Trans Agenda

Is there a light forming when it comes to the long, dark and bewildering tunnel of social justice cultism?  Global events have been so frenetic that many people might not remember, but only a couple years ago Big Tech companies and numerous governments were openly aligned in favor of mass censorship.  Not just to prevent the public from investigating the facts surrounding the pandemic farce, but to silence anyone questioning the validity of woke concepts like trans ideology. 

From 2020-2022 was the closest the west has come in a long time to a complete erasure of freedom of speech.  Even today there are still countries and Europe and places like Canada or Australia that are charging forward with draconian speech laws.  The phrase "radical speech" is starting to circulate within pro-censorship circles in reference to any platform where people are allowed to talk critically.  What is radical speech?  Basically, it's any discussion that runs contrary to the beliefs of the political left.

Open hatred of moderate or conservative ideals is perfectly acceptable, but don't ever shine a negative light on woke activism, or you might be a terrorist.

Riley Gaines has experienced this double standard first hand.  She was even assaulted and taken hostage at an event in 2023 at San Francisco State University when leftists protester tried to trap her in a room and demanded she "pay them to let her go."  Campus police allegedly witnessed the incident but charges were never filed and surveillance footage from the college was never released.  

It's probably the last thing a champion female swimmer ever expects, but her head-on collision with the trans movement and the institutional conspiracy to push it on the public forced her to become a counter-culture voice of reason rather than just an athlete.

For years the independent media argued that no matter how much we expose the insanity of men posing as women to compete and dominate women's sports, nothing will really change until the real female athletes speak up and fight back.  Riley Gaines and those like her represent that necessary rebellion and a desperately needed return to common sense and reason.

In a recent interview on the Joe Rogan Podcast, Gaines related some interesting information on the inner workings of the NCAA and the subversive schemes surrounding trans athletes.  Not only were women participants essentially strong-armed by colleges and officials into quietly going along with the program, there was also a concerted propaganda effort.  Competition ceremonies were rigged as vehicles for promoting trans athletes over everyone else. 

The bottom line?  The competitions didn't matter.  The real women and their achievements didn't matter.  The only thing that mattered to officials were the photo ops; dudes pretending to be chicks posing with awards for the gushing corporate media.  The agenda took precedence.

Lia Thomas, formerly known as William Thomas, was more than an activist invading female sports, he was also apparently a science project fostered and protected by the athletic establishment.  It's important to understand that the political left does not care about female athletes.  They do not care about women's sports.  They don't care about the integrity of the environments they co-opt.  Their only goal is to identify viable platforms with social impact and take control of them.  Women's sports are seen as a vehicle for public indoctrination, nothing more.

The reasons why they covet women's sports are varied, but a primary motive is the desire to assert the fallacy that men and women are "the same" psychologically as well as physically.  They want the deconstruction of biological sex and identity as nothing more than "social constructs" subject to personal preference.  If they can destroy what it means to be a man or a woman, they can destroy the very foundations of relationships, families and even procreation.  

For now it seems as though the trans agenda is hitting a wall with much of the public aware of it and less afraid to criticize it.  Social media companies might be able to silence some people, but they can't silence everyone.  However, there is still a significant threat as the movement continues to target children through the public education system and women's sports are not out of the woods yet.   

The ultimate solution is for women athletes around the world to organize and widely refuse to participate in any competitions in which biological men are allowed.  The only way to save women's sports is for women to be willing to end them, at least until institutions that put doctrine ahead of logic are made irrelevant.          

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 17:20

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RFK Jr. Reveals Vice President Contenders

RFK Jr. Reveals Vice President Contenders

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times,

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and former…

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RFK Jr. Reveals Vice President Contenders

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times,

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and former Minnesota governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura are among the potential running mates for independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the New York Times reported on March 12.

Citing “two people familiar with the discussions,” the New York Times wrote that Mr. Kennedy “recently approached” Mr. Rodgers and Mr. Ventura about the vice president’s role, “and both have welcomed the overtures.”

Mr. Kennedy has talked to Mr. Rodgers “pretty continuously” over the last month, according to the story. The candidate has kept in touch with Mr. Ventura since the former governor introduced him at a February voter rally in Tucson, Arizona.

Stefanie Spear, who is the campaign press secretary, told The Epoch Times on March 12 that “Mr. Kennedy did share with the New York Times that he’s considering Aaron Rodgers and Jesse Ventura as running mates along with others on a short list.”

Ms. Spear added that Mr. Kennedy will name his running mate in the upcoming weeks.

Former Democrat presidential candidates Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard declined the opportunity to join Mr. Kennedy’s ticket, according to the New York Times.

Mr. Kennedy has also reportedly talked to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) about becoming his running mate.

Last week, Mr. Kennedy endorsed Mr. Paul to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as the Senate Minority Leader after Mr. McConnell announced he would step down from the post at the end of the year.

CNN reported early on March 13 that Mr. Kennedy’s shortlist also includes motivational speaker Tony Robbins, Discovery Channel Host Mike Rowe, and civil rights attorney Tricia Lindsay. The Washington Post included the aforementioned names plus former Republican Massachusetts senator and U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, Scott Brown.

In April 2023, Mr. Kennedy entered the Democrat presidential primary to challenge President Joe Biden for the party’s 2024 nomination. Claiming that the Democrat National Committee was “rigging the primary” to stop candidates from opposing President Biden, Mr. Kennedy said last October that he would run as an independent.

This year, Mr. Kennedy’s campaign has shifted its focus to ballot access. He currently has qualified for the ballot as an independent in New Hampshire, Utah, and Nevada.

Mr. Kennedy also qualified for the ballot in Hawaii under the “We the People” party.

In January, Mr. Kennedy’s campaign said it had filed paperwork in six states to create a political party. The move was made to get his name on the ballots with fewer voter signatures than those states require for candidates not affiliated with a party.

The “We the People” party was established in five states: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi, and North Carolina. The “Texas Independent Party” was also formed.

A statement by Mr. Kennedy’s campaign reported that filing for political party status in the six states reduced the number of signatures required for him to gain ballot access by about 330,000.

Ballot access guidelines have created a sense of urgency to name a running mate. More than 20 states require independent and third-party candidates to have a vice presidential pick before collecting and submitting signatures.

Like Mr. Kennedy, Mr. Ventura is an outspoken critic of COVID-19 vaccine mandates and safety.

Mr. Ventura, 72, gained acclaim in the 1970s and 1980s as a professional wrestler known as Jesse “the Body” Ventura. He appeared in movies and television shows before entering the Minnesota gubernatorial race as a Reform Party headliner. He was a longshot candidate but prevailed and served one term.

Former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura in Washington on Oct. 4, 2013. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

In an interview on a YouTube podcast last December, Mr. Ventura was asked if he would accept an offer to run on Mr. Kennedy’s ticket.

“I would give it serious consideration. I won’t tell you yes or no. It will depend on my personal life. Would I want to commit myself at 72 for one year of hell (campaigning) and then four years (in office)?” Mr. Ventura said with a grin.

Mr. Rodgers, who spent his entire career as a quarterback for the Green Bay Packers before joining the New York Jets last season, remains under contract with the Jets. He has not publicly commented about joining Mr. Kennedy’s ticket, but the four-time NFL MVP endorsed him earlier this year and has stumped for him on podcasts.

The 40-year-old Rodgers is still under contract with the Jets after tearing his Achilles tendon in the 2023 season opener and being sidelined the rest of the year. The Jets are owned by Woody Johnson, a prominent donor to former President Donald Trump who served as U.S. Ambassador to Britain under President Trump.

Since the COVID-19 vaccine was introduced, Mr. Rodgers has been outspoken about health issues that can result from taking the shot. He told podcaster Joe Rogan that he has lost friends and sponsorship deals because of his decision not to get vaccinated.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets talks to reporters after training camp at Atlantic Health Jets Training Center in Florham Park, N.J., on July 26, 2023. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Earlier this year, Mr. Rodgers challenged Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Dr. Anthony Fauci to a debate.

Mr. Rodgers referred to Mr. Kelce, who signed an endorsement deal with vaccine manufacturer Pfizer, as “Mr. Pfizer.”

Dr. Fauci served as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases from 1984 to 2022 and was chief medical adviser to the president from 2021 to 2022.

When Mr. Kennedy announces his running mate, it will mark another challenge met to help gain ballot access.

“In some states, the signature gathering window is not open. New York is one of those and is one of the most difficult with ballot access requirements,” Ms. Spear told The Epoch Times.

“We need our VP pick and our electors, and we have to gather 45,000 valid signatures. That means we will collect 72,000 since we have a 60 percent buffer in every state,” she added.

The window for gathering signatures in New York opens on April 16 and closes on May 28, Ms. Spear noted.

“Mississippi, North Carolina, and Oklahoma are the next three states we will most likely check off our list,” Ms. Spear added. “We are confident that Mr. Kennedy will be on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We have a strategist, petitioners, attorneys, and the overall momentum of the campaign.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 15:45

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