Uncategorized
Market Report – 2nd October 2023
The US Non-Farm Payroll jobs report due on Friday is the key data point of the coming week. Analysts predict payrolls will fall…
Read More…
The…
- The US Non-Farm Payroll jobs report due on Friday is the key data point of the coming week.
- Analysts predict payrolls will fall to 150,000 from 187,000 last month and the unemployment rate to hold at 3.8%.
- Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month.
- Any deviation from those forecasts can be expected to trigger price moves in all the major currency markets.
US dollar strength continues to be the underlying theme of the currency markets, with EURUSD currently testing the key 1.04823 support level and the GBPUSD downward price channel showing few signs of reversing. The US Non-Farm Payrolls jobs report, due to be released on Friday, is always an important milestone in the trading month, and September’s numbers could offer clues as to how far the current trend has left to run.
US Dollar
The Non-Farm Payrolls employment report, released on the first Friday of every month, often sets the tone for the following week’s trading. After this September, which saw EURUSD and GBPUSD give up 2.48% and 3.70% in value, respectively, Friday’s report is the most important item on the coming week’s economic calendar. The jobs report will be a crucial indicator of whether the rush to the dollar is likely to continue or if a reversal could be about to form.
ISM Purchasing and Services data will also offer an insight into the health of the US economy, and big corporations will kick off earnings season next week. There is also the backdrop of the US Federal budget and a possible government shutdown to consider, but for now, the NFP is the most likely catalyst of the next price moves.
Daily Price Chart – US Dollar Basket Index – Daily Price Chart – 20 SMA
Source: IG
EURUSD
The coming week is quiet in terms of euro-specific data releases, but updates from other regions look set to influence the value of euro-based currency pairs. Due on Friday, the NFP number out of the states will very likely impact prices in the largest currency market in the world – the Eurodollar. Before that, on Tuesday, the interest rate decision due to be announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia will influence EURAUD price levels. However, comments from that central bank can also be taken as a guide regarding the mood of the rest of the central bank peer group.
Daily Price Chart – EURUSD – Daily Price Chart – 1.04823
Source: IG
EURUSD has started the week trading midrange between two significant support and resistance price levels. To the downside is the 1.04823 support level, which marks the price low of 6th January. That still represents the current year-to-date low for EURUSD, but the tests of that level on Wednesday (1.04880) and Thursday (1.04910) suggest that bearish momentum is still strong.
Whilst the bounce off that level was strong enough for traders to think a trend reversal could be imminent, there is also resistance to further upward moves in the region of 1.06351. That price level relates to the swing-low price pattern formed on 31st May and previously acted as support between 14th and 25th September.
GBPUSD
As with the euro, traders of sterling-based currency pairs will see prices influenced by announcements from other regions rather than UK authorities this week. The run-up to the release of the NFP jobs report could see GBPUSD continue to trade within a range formed by key support/resistance price levels.
Price level 1.23081 marks the upper end of the current price channel and is the low price recorded during the swing-low price move of 25th May. This level didn’t offer as much support as expected when it was breached on 21st September, and with the RSI on the Daily Price Chart at 29.09, there are signs the market is oversold and is due a bounce.
Daily Price Chart – GBPUSD – Daily Price Chart
Source: IG
The downward trend, which started on 13th July, has formed a price channel which has trendlines which have been barely tested over a period of weeks. That leaves plenty of room for the price of GBPUSD to continue to weaken and move towards the major support level of 1.18030, which marks the year-to-date price low of 8th March.
USDJPY
The recent decision by the Bank of Japan to continue with its dovish approach to interest rates has left room for USDJPY to track upwards, guided by the 20 SMA on the Daily Price Chart. That metric remains the key indicator, and until price breaks through that level (currently 148.21), there is room for a test of the multi-year price high 151.946 printed on 21st October 2022.
Daily Price Chart – USDJPY – Daily Price Chart
Source: IG
Monday sees the Japan Tankan Index number for Q3 be released. Analysts forecast that the index will rise to 7, but as with the other major currency pairs, the major news event of the week is the NFP employment report due on Friday.
Trade EURUSD with our top brokers:
Broker | Features | Regulator | Platforms | Next Step | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
74% of retail CFD accounts lose money
Founded: 2014 74% of retail C... |
|
FSA SC | MT4, MT5 | ||
Your capital is at risk
Founded: 2014 |
|
FSPR | MT4 | ||
Your capital is at risk
Founded: 2006 Europe* CFDs ar... |
|
ASIC, FSA, FSB, MiFID | MetaTrader4, Sirix, AvaOptions, AvaTrader, Mirror Trader | ||
Between 74-89% of CFD traders lose
Founded: 2010 Between 74-89 % of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs |
|
ASIC, FCA | MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, cTrader | ||
77% of CFD traders lose
Founded: 2007 77 % of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. |
|
ASIC, CySEC, FCA | eToro Platform | ||
Your capital is at risk
Founded: 2009, 2015, 2017 |
|
ASIC, CySEC, IFSC | MT4 Terminal, MT4 for Mac, Web Trader, iPhone/iPad Trader, Droid Trader, Mobile Trader, MT5 | ||
Your capital is at risk
Founded: 2006 |
|
CySEC, DFSA, FCA, FSB, SIA | MetaTrader4, MetaTrader5, cTrader, FxPro Edge (Beta) | ||
Risk Statement: Trading financial products carries a high risk to your capital, especially trading leverage products such as CFDs. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please make sure that you fully understand the risks. You should consider whether you can afford to take the risk of losing your money.
The post Market Report – 2nd October 2023 appeared first on Forextraders.com.
us dollar euro cryptoUncategorized
Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more
New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…
- A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more.
- The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
- The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia.
Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.
The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later.
The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.
The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.
Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing.
Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year.
Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.
Metropolitan Area | Best Time to List | Price Premium | Dollar Boost |
United States | First half of June | 2.3% | $7,700 |
New York, NY | First half of July | 2.4% | $15,500 |
Los Angeles, CA | First half of May | 4.1% | $39,300 |
Chicago, IL | First half of June | 2.8% | $8,800 |
Dallas, TX | First half of June | 2.5% | $9,200 |
Houston, TX | Second half of April | 2.0% | $6,200 |
Washington, DC | Second half of June | 2.2% | $12,700 |
Philadelphia, PA | First half of July | 2.4% | $8,200 |
Miami, FL | First half of June | 2.3% | $12,900 |
Atlanta, GA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $8,700 |
Boston, MA | Second half of May | 3.5% | $23,600 |
Phoenix, AZ | First half of June | 3.2% | $14,700 |
San Francisco, CA | Second half of February | 4.2% | $50,300 |
Riverside, CA | First half of May | 2.7% | $15,600 |
Detroit, MI | First half of July | 3.3% | $7,900 |
Seattle, WA | First half of June | 4.3% | $31,500 |
Minneapolis, MN | Second half of May | 3.7% | $13,400 |
San Diego, CA | Second half of April | 3.1% | $29,600 |
Tampa, FL | Second half of June | 2.1% | $8,000 |
Denver, CO | Second half of May | 2.9% | $16,900 |
Baltimore, MD | First half of July | 2.2% | $8,200 |
St. Louis, MO | First half of June | 2.9% | $7,000 |
Orlando, FL | First half of June | 2.2% | $8,700 |
Charlotte, NC | Second half of May | 3.0% | $11,000 |
San Antonio, TX | First half of June | 1.9% | $5,400 |
Portland, OR | Second half of April | 2.6% | $14,300 |
Sacramento, CA | First half of June | 3.2% | $17,900 |
Pittsburgh, PA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $4,700 |
Cincinnati, OH | Second half of April | 2.7% | $7,500 |
Austin, TX | Second half of May | 2.8% | $12,600 |
Las Vegas, NV | First half of June | 3.4% | $14,600 |
Kansas City, MO | Second half of May | 2.5% | $7,300 |
Columbus, OH | Second half of June | 3.3% | $10,400 |
Indianapolis, IN | First half of July | 3.0% | $8,100 |
Cleveland, OH | First half of July | 3.4% | $7,400 |
San Jose, CA | First half of June | 5.5% | $88,400 |
The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.
federal reserve pandemic home sales mortgage rates interest ratesUncategorized
February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
unemployment pandemic unemploymentUncategorized
Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.
The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250
Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too
Total employment data
4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
- Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
- High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
- Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.
recession unemployment covid-19 fed federal reserve mortgage rates recession recovery unemployment-
Uncategorized3 weeks ago
All Of The Elements Are In Place For An Economic Crisis Of Staggering Proportions
-
Uncategorized1 month ago
Cathie Wood sells a major tech stock (again)
-
Uncategorized3 weeks ago
California Counties Could Be Forced To Pay $300 Million To Cover COVID-Era Program
-
Uncategorized2 weeks ago
Apparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy
-
Uncategorized4 weeks ago
Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in January
-
International3 days ago
Walmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program
-
International3 days ago
EyePoint poaches medical chief from Apellis; Sandoz CFO, longtime BioNTech exec to retire
-
Uncategorized3 weeks ago
RFK Jr: The Wuhan Cover-Up & The Rise Of The Biowarfare-Industrial Complex