We anticipate a strong 2024 for emerging markets (EM) debt on the back of a significant improvement in the global macro backdrop. While it appears likely…
We anticipate a strong 2024 for emerging markets (EM) debt on the back of a significant improvement in the global macro backdrop.
While it appears likely that the global economy will continue to gradually decelerate, we believe growth should remain close to its long-term potential. In such an environment, central banks in advanced economies have likely reached the end of their hiking cycles, and many EM central banks have already started cutting policy rates.
The increased likelihood that the global monetary tightening cycle is nearly over leads us to believe that there are attractive opportunities for investors to start adding to duration to lock in attractive real and nominal yields. In this context, we are looking for opportunities to increase allocation to longer-duration securities.
We see ample opportunities in EM frontier and distressed credit.
We continue to see value in high-beta, high-yield credit and are positioned for high-yield/investment-grade spread compression because we believe the global market environment will be conducive to the outperformance of high-beta, high-yield credit.
We also see scope for fundamental differentiation. We prefer countries with easier access to multilateral and bilateral funding. Multilateral and bilateral support to EMs remains strong and could make a meaningful contribution to external funding in 2024. In this context, we see ample opportunities in EM frontier and distressed credit.
Meanwhile, the corporate credit space continues to exhibit a combination of differentiated fundamental drivers, favorable supply technical conditions, and attractive relative valuations to select sovereign curves. We are seeking investment opportunities where corporate credit fundamentals and attractive spreads coincide. Short-maturity bonds have outperformed, but opportunities in longer bonds are beginning to appear. We continue to focus on issuers with low refinancing needs, robust balance sheets, and positive credit trajectories.
Below, we break down some of our largest active positions by beta bucket, which is how we allocate our risk budget.
A View of the Potential Opportunities: Overweight/Underweight
High-Beta Bucket
In the high-beta bucket, our largest overweight positions are in Egypt, Angola, and El Salvador, and our largest underweight positions are in Nigeria, Kenya, and Honduras.
Egypt (overweight): We believe Egypt’s external financing needs will be met with support from partners in the Middle East and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We see scope for Egypt to catch up to the broader move in high-yield credits and believe valuations are attractive.
Angola (overweight): Angola has attractive valuations, and we believe authorities’ commitment to fiscal consolidation and broader economic reform is genuine. Moreover, the depreciation of the kwanza demonstrates commitment to a flexible exchange rate, in our view. We believe this will serve the economy well over the medium term.
El Salvador(overweight): In our view, it is likely that President Nayib Bukele, one of the most popular politicians in Latin America, will be reelected in February. This could provide the political cover to reach an agreement with the IMF (although one potential obstacle is the country’s adoption of bitcoin as legal tender).
We remain concerned about governance issues within Honduras, which lead us to believe there is better relative value elsewhere.
Nigeria (underweight): Nigeria has tight valuations relative to peers. After strong performance in the immediate aftermath of the elections, we are looking for signs of more cohesive policies and full implementation of reforms announced earlier this year.
Kenya(underweight): Spreads have tightened to levels at which we believe there is better value in other high-beta names. There have been some conflicting statements from authorities as to how maturing 2024 bonds will be financed, the twin deficits remain wide, and ongoing currency weakness is likely to persist in the near term, in our opinion. IMF support should, however, ensure that there is not a default event on the upcoming maturity.
Honduras (underweight): We do not hold any Honduran bonds because we do not like the valuations, given fundamental risks. Although Honduras has the capacity to service its debt in the near term, credit fundamentals have been declining. The electricity sector has been particularly mismanaged, creating additional fiscal challenges. Overall, we remain concerned about governance issues within Honduras, which lead us to believe there is better relative value elsewhere.
Medium-Beta Bucket
In the medium-beta bucket, our largest overweight positions are in Benin, Guatemala, and Brazil, and our largest underweight positions are in Oman, Costa Rica, and Turkey.
Benin (overweight): We see value in Benin relative to other more liquid sub-Saharan names. Reform momentum remains strong, and Benin continues to enjoy a strong relationship with the IMF. Robust growth, relatively low levels of public debt, and ongoing fiscal discipline led Benin to receive an upgrade from Standard & Poor’s in the last quarter of 2023, and the outlook is now rated “positive” (up from “stable” previously).
We believe Guatemalan President Juan José Arevalo will likely face political obstacles when he assumes office, but Guatemala will remain a strong credit.
Guatemala (overweight): Political noise has increased following President Juan José Arevalo’s win in the August elections, as some branches of government have taken an aggressive stance toward Arevalo’s Semilla party, raising concerns about the stability of the transition period. However, we still believe Arevalo will assume office in January and the electoral process will be respected. Arevalo will likely face political obstacles when he assumes office, but we believe that due to strong initial conditions in the country via strong leverage ratios and low fiscal deficits, Guatemala will remain a strong credit, as it has strong macroeconomic conditions and attractive valuations.
Brazil (overweight): We continue to hold diversified positions across several sectors in Brazil and have been adding through the new-issue market as well. We currently hold seven issuers across seven different sectors of the Brazilian economy.
Oman (underweight): A medium-beta-bucket country during the fourth quarter, we upgraded Oman to our low-beta bucket at the end of the year due to its lower volatility and consistently strong performance. Oman has enjoyed a strong fiscal reform story over the past couple of years. However, we believe this story is now priced in. The country is still highly dependent on the oil sector, where prices remain vulnerable to slowing global growth, and we believe there is the potential for the positive reform momentum to stall if oil prices fall below the fiscal breakeven level and remain there.
Costa Rica(underweight): Costa Rica has unappealing valuations, in our opinion. Spreads in Costa Rica are now the tightest they’ve been since 2013.
Turkey (underweight): We see risks ahead of local elections in March, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has unexpectedly shifted policy direction before with no advance warning. Valuations also look tight given the recent change in positioning, and the recent large increase in the minimum wage suggests that it is prudent to adopt more of a wait-and-see approach to this market for now.
Low-Beta Bucket
In the low-beta bucket, our largest overweight positions are in Qatar, Poland, and Bermuda, and our largest underweight positions are in Indonesia, Uruguay, and UAE.
Qatar(overweight): We believe issuance is likely to be a key theme for investment-grade countries in the first quarter of 2024, given the dramatic rally in U.S. Treasury yields and EM bond spreads in the last quarter of 2023. Although Qatar may issue opportunistically, we do not expect issuance in as large a size as some of its peers, given Qatar’s strong fiscal position and lower debt levels.
Poland could benefit from the result of last year’s parliamentary elections, which led to a more market-friendly government taking over in December.
Poland (overweight): Although we expect heavy issuance from Poland in 2024, we expect issuance to be skewed largely toward the domestic and euro currency. In our opinion, Poland could benefit from the result of last year’s parliamentary elections, which led to a more market-friendly government taking over in December.
Bermuda(overweight): Bermuda’s bonds have similar valuations to other low-beta sovereigns, such as those of Peru and Chile, but we believe the country has a stronger fundamental trajectory with less institutional uncertainty.
Indonesia (underweight): We underweighted Indonesia after a year of significant spread compression resulted in unappealing valuation compared to its low-beta peers. By the end of 2023, the country’s J.P. Morgan EMBIGD spread was 87 basis points. Based on fundamentals, the outlook is stable, although the presidential election scheduled for February 2024 and risk of new-year supply are impediments to near-term spread performance.
Uruguay(underweight): Credit fundamentals in Uruguay remain strong, but bond prices have compressed materially since the COVID-19 pandemic, and we believe this results in limited scope for additional spread tightening.
UAE (underweight): We find valuations unappealing. Bonds in weaker credits, such as Sharjah and Dubai, have rallied to the point where we believe valuations are no longer attractive relative to fundamentals. We prefer to own positions in real estate issuers at more attractive valuations. Moreover, within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, we continue to prefer Qatar to UAE; reflecting this, we hold a relative overweight spread duration position in Qatar. This overweight is driven by the lower issuance needs in this market relative to GCC peers.
Marco Ruijer, CFA, is a portfolio manager on William Blair’s emerging markets debt team.
Meet the Bitcoinetas, a fleet of transformative vehicles on a mission to spread the bitcoin message everywhere they go. From Argentina to South Africa,…
You may have seen that picture of Michael Saylor in a bitcoin-branded van, with a cheerful guy right next to the car door. This one:
Ariel Aguilar and La Bitcoineta European Edition at BTC Prague.
That car is the Bitcoineta European Edition, and the cheerful guy is Ariel Aguilar. Ariel is part of the European Bitcoineta team, and has previously driven another similar car in Argentina. In fact, there are currently five cars around the world that carry the name Bitcoineta (in some cases preceded with the Spanish definite article “La”).
Argentina: the original La Bitcoineta
The story of Bitcoinetas begins with the birth of 'La Bitcoineta' in Argentina, back in 2017. Inspired by the vibrancy of the South American Bitcoin community, the original Bitcoineta was conceived after an annual Latin American Conference (Labitconf), where the visionaries behind it recognized a unique opportunity to promote Bitcoin education in remote areas. Armed with a bright orange Bitcoin-themed exterior and a mission to bridge the gap in financial literacy, La Bitcoineta embarked on a journey to bring awareness of Bitcoin's potential benefits to villages and towns that often remained untouched by mainstream financial education initiatives. Operated by a team of dedicated volunteers, it was more than just a car; it was a symbol of hope and empowerment for those living on the fringes of financial inclusion.
The concept drawing for La Bitcoineta from December 2017.
Ariel was part of that initial Argentinian Bitcoineta team, and spent weeks on the road when the car became a reality. The original dream to bring bitcoin education even to remote areas within Argentina and other South American countries came true, and the La Bitcoineta team took part in dozens of local bitcoin meetups in the subsequent years.
The original La Bitcoineta from Argentina.
One major hiccup came in late 2018, when the car was crashed into while parked in Puerto Madryn. The car was pretty much destroyed, but since the team was possessed by a honey badger spirit, nothing could stop them from keeping true to their mission. It is a testament to the determination and resilience of the Argentinian team that the car was quickly restored and returned on its orange-pilling quest soon after.
Argentinian Bitcoineta after a major accident (no-one got hurt); the car was restored shortly after.
Over the more than 5 years that the Argentinian Bitcoineta has been running, it has traveled more than 80,000 kilometers - and as we’ll see further, it inspired multiple similar initiatives around the world.
In early 2021, the president of El Salvador passed the Bitcoin Law, making bitcoin legal tender in the country. The Labitconf team decided to celebrate this major step forward in bitcoin adoption by hosting the annual conference in San Salvador, the capital city of El Salvador. And correspondingly, the Argentinian Bitcoineta team made plans for a bold 7000-kilometer road trip to visit the Bitcoin country with the iconic Bitcoin car.
However, it proved to be impossible to cross so many borders separating Argentina and Salvador, since many governments were still imposing travel restrictions due to a Covid pandemic. So two weeks before the November event, the Labitconf team decided to fund a second Bitcoineta directly in El Salvador, as part of the Bitcoin Beach circular economy. Thus the second Bitcoineta was born.
Salvadoran’s Bitcoineta operates in the El Zonte region, where the Bitcoin Beach circular economy is located.
The eye-catching Volkswagen minibus has been donated to the Bitcoin Beach team, which uses the car for the needs of its circular economy based in El Zonte.
Late 2021 saw one other major development in terms of grassroots bitcoin adoption. On the other side of the planet, in South Africa, Hermann Vivier initiated the Bitcoin Ekasi project. “Ekasi” is a colloquial term for a township, and a township in the South African context is an underdeveloped urban area with a predominantly black population, a remnant of the segregationist apartheid regime. Bitcoin Ekasi emerged as an attempt to introduce bitcoin into the economy of the JCC Camp township located in Mossel Bay, and has gained a lot of success on that front.
Bitcoin Ekasi was in large part inspired by the success of the Bitcoin Beach circular economy back in El Salvador, and the respect was mutual. The Bitcoin Beach team thus decided to pass on the favor they received from the Argentinian Bitcoineta team, and provided funds to Bitcoin Ekasi for them to build a Bitcoineta of their own.
Bitcoin Ekasi’s Bitcoineta as seen at the Adopting Bitcoin Cape Town conference.Bitcoin Ekasi’s Bitcoineta as seen at the Adopting Bitcoin Cape Town conference. Hermann Vivier is seen in the background. South African Bitcoineta serves the needs of Bitcoin Ekasi, a local bitcoin circular economy in the JCC Camp township.
Bitcoin Ekasi emerged as a sister organization of Surfer Kids, a non-profit organization with a mission to empower marginalized youths through surfing. The Ekasi Bitcoineta thus partially serves as a means to get the kids to visit various surfer competitions in South Africa. A major highlight in this regard was when the kids got to meet Jordy Smith, one of the most successful South African surfers worldwide.
Coincidentally, South African surfers present an intriguing demographic for understanding Bitcoin due to their unique circumstances and needs. To make it as a professional surfer, the athletes need to attend competitions abroad; but since South Africa has tight currency controls in place, it is often a headache to send money abroad for travel and competition expenses. The borderless nature of Bitcoin offers a solution to these constraints, providing surfers with an alternative means of moving funds across borders without any obstacles.
Photo taken at the South African Junior Surfing Championships 2023. Back row, left to right:
Mbasa, Chuma, Jordy Smith, Sandiso. Front, left to right: Owethu, Sibulele.
To find out more about Bitcoineta South Africa and the non-profit endeavors it serves, watch Lekker Feeling, a documentary by Aubrey Strobel:
The European Bitcoineta started its journey in early 2023, with Ariel Aguilar being one of the main catalysts behind the idea. Unlike its predecessors in El Salvador and South Africa, the European Bitcoineta was not funded by a previous team but instead secured support from individual donors, reflecting a grassroots approach to spreading financial literacy.
European Bitcoineta sports a hard-to-overlook bitcoin logo along with the message “Bitcoin is Work. Bitcoin is Time. Bitcoin is Hope.”
The European Bitcoineta is a Mercedes box van adorned with a prominent Bitcoin logo and inspiring messages, and serves as a mobile hub for education and discussion at numerous European Bitcoin conferences and local meetups. Inside its spacious interior, both notable bitcoiners and bitcoin plebs share their insights on the walls, fostering a sense of camaraderie and collaboration.
Inside the European Bitcoineta, one can find the wall of fame, where visitors can read messages from prominent bitcoiners such as Michael Saylor, Uncle Rockstar, Javier Bastardo, Hodlonaut, and many others.On the “pleb wall”, any bitcoiner can share their message (as long as space permits).
Introduced in December 2023 at the Africa Bitcoin Conference in Ghana, the fifth Bitcoineta was donated to the Ghanaian Bitcoin Cowries educational initiative as part of the Trezor Academy program.
Bitcoineta West Africa was launched in December 2023 at the Africa Bitcoin Conference. Among its elements, it bears the motto of the Trezor Academy initiative: Bitcoin. Education. Freedom.
Bitcoineta West Africa was funded by the proceeds from the bitcoin-only limited edition Trezor device, which was sold out within one day of its launch at the Bitcoin Amsterdam conference.
With plans for an extensive tour spanning Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, and potentially other countries within the ECOWAS political and economic union, Bitcoineta West Africa embodies the spirit of collaboration and solidarity in driving Bitcoin adoption and financial inclusion throughout the Global South.
Bitcoineta West Africa surrounded by a group of enthusiastic bitcoiners at the Black Star Square, Accra, Ghana.
All the Bitcoineta cars around the world share one overarching mission: to empower their local communities through bitcoin education, and thus improve the lives of common people that might have a strong need for bitcoin without being currently aware of such need. As they continue to traverse borders and break down barriers, Bitcoinetas serve as a reminder of the power of grassroots initiatives and the importance of financial education in shaping a more inclusive future. The tradition of Bitcoinetas will continue to flourish, and in the years to come we will hopefully encounter a brazenly decorated bitcoin car everywhere we go.
If the inspiring stories of Bitcoinetas have ignited a passion within you to make a difference in your community, we encourage you to take action! Reach out to one of the existing Bitcoineta teams for guidance, support, and inspiration on how to start your own initiative. Whether you're interested in spreading Bitcoin education, promoting financial literacy, or fostering empowerment in underserved areas, the Bitcoineta community is here to help you every step of the way. Together, we will orange pill the world!
This is a guest post by Josef Tetek. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution…
Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites.
“Such is unsurprising, given that retail investors often fall victim to the psychological behavior of the “fear of missing out.” The chart below shows the “dumb money index” versus the S&P 500. Once again, retail investors are very long equities relative to the institutional players ascribed to being the “smart money.””
“The difference between “smart” and “dumb money” investors shows that, more often than not, the “dumb money” invests near market tops and sells near market bottoms.”
That enthusiasm has increased sharply since last November as stocks surged in hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. As noted by Sentiment Trader:
“Over the past 18 weeks, the straight-up rally has moved us to an interesting juncture in the Sentiment Cycle. For the past few weeks, the S&P 500 has demonstrated a high positive correlation to the ‘Enthusiasm’ part of the cycle and a highly negative correlation to the ‘Panic’ phase.”
That frenzy to chase the markets, driven by the psychological bias of the “fear of missing out,” has permeated the entirety of the market. As noted in “This Is Nuts:”
“Since then, the entire market has surged higher following last week’s earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA). The reason I say “this is nuts” is the assumption that all companies were going to grow earnings and revenue at Nvidia’s rate. There is little doubt about Nvidia’s earnings and revenue growth rates. However, to maintain that growth pace indefinitely, particularly at 32x price-to-sales, means others like AMD and Intel must lose market share.”
Of course, it is not just a speculative frenzy in the markets for stocks, specifically anything related to “artificial intelligence,” but that exuberance has spilled over into gold and cryptocurrencies.
Birds Of A Feather
There are a couple of ways to measure exuberance in the assets. While sentiment measures examine the broad market, technical indicators can reflect exuberance on individual asset levels. However, before we get to our charts, we need a brief explanation of statistics, specifically, standard deviation.
“Like a rubber band that has been stretched too far – it must be relaxed in order to be stretched again. This is exactly the same for stock prices that are anchored to their moving averages. Trends that get overextended in one direction, or another, always return to their long-term average. Even during a strong uptrend or strong downtrend, prices often move back (revert) to a long-term moving average.”
The idea of “stretching the rubber band” can be measured in several ways, but I will limit our discussion this week to Standard Deviation and measuring deviation with “Bollinger Bands.”
“Standard Deviation” is defined as:
“A measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is calculated as the square root of the variance.”
In plain English,this meansthat the further away from the average that an event occurs, the more unlikely it becomes. As shown below, out of 1000 occurrences, only three will fall outside the area of 3 standard deviations. 95.4% of the time, events will occur within two standard deviations.
A second measure of “exuberance” is “relative strength.”
“In technical analysis, the relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can read from 0 to 100.
Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.” – Investopedia
With those two measures, let’s look at Nvidia (NVDA), the poster child of speculative momentum trading in the markets. Nvidia trades more than 3 standard deviations above its moving average, and its RSI is 81. The last time this occurred was in July of 2023 when Nvidia consolidated and corrected prices through November.
Interestingly, gold also trades well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI reading of 75. Given that gold is supposed to be a “safe haven” or “risk off” asset, it is instead getting swept up in the current market exuberance.
The same is seen with digital currencies. Given the recent approval of spot, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the panic bid to buy Bitcoin has pushed the price well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI of 73.
In other words, the stock market frenzy to “buy anything that is going up” has spread from just a handful of stocks related to artificial intelligence to gold and digital currencies.
It’s All Relative
We can see the correlation between stock market exuberance and gold and digital currency, which has risen since 2015 but accelerated following the post-pandemic, stimulus-fueled market frenzy. Since the market, gold and cryptocurrencies, or Bitcoin for our purposes, have disparate prices, we have rebased the performance to 100 in 2015.
Gold was supposed to be an inflation hedge. Yet, in 2022, gold prices fell as the market declined and inflation surged to 9%. However, as inflation has fallen and the stock market surged, so has gold. Notably, since 2015, gold and the market have moved in a more correlated pattern, which has reduced the hedging effect of gold in portfolios. In other words, during the subsequent market decline, gold will likely track stocks lower, failing to provide its “wealth preservation” status for investors.
The same goes for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is substantially more volatile than gold and tends to ebb and flow with the overall market. As sentiment surges in the S&P 500, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies follow suit as speculative appetites increase. Unfortunately, for individuals once again piling into Bitcoin to chase rising prices, if, or when, the market corrects, the decline in cryptocurrencies will likely substantially outpace the decline in market-based equities. This is particularly the case as Wall Street can now short the spot-Bitcoin ETFs, creating additional selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Just for added measure, here is Bitcoin versus gold.
Not A Recommendation
There are many narratives surrounding the markets, digital currency, and gold. However, in today’s market, more than in previous years, all assets are getting swept up into the investor-feeding frenzy.
Sure, this time could be different. I am only making an observation and not an investment recommendation.
However, from a portfolio management perspective, it will likely pay to remain attentive to the correlated risk between asset classes. If some event causes a reversal in bullish exuberance, cash and bonds may be the only place to hide.
BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals.
Credit: Impact Journals
BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals.
Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”
Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Agingteam.
About Aging-US:
Agingpublishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.
Agingis indexed and archived byPubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed Central, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).
Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com and connect with us:
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