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Logical Bullish View On US Stocks Is Flawed

Logical Bullish View On US Stocks Is Flawed

Authored by Tatiana Darie, Bloomberg,

It’s valid to forecast that stocks will rally yet again…

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Logical Bullish View On US Stocks Is Flawed

Authored by Tatiana Darie, Bloomberg,

It’s valid to forecast that stocks will rally yet again in 2024. It’s also a deeply vulnerable view.

When formulating our S&P 500 outlook for 2024, the fraught debate among the Markets Live team has likely been echoed in trading rooms across the industry. A lot of the conflict ultimately boils down to the approach of a trader versus an investor. Sure, stocks can keep gaining from these already lofty levels. However, history suggests that the risk-reward to being bullish is poor at these valuations at this point in the cycle.

An optimistic stance may be the most logical base case, and that’s why Wall Street is confident. A good number of strategists are calling for the S&P 500 to top 5,000 this year, or even reach 6,000 by 2025. The MLIV team overall leans even more bullish than the Street median forecast of 4,850. And my colleagues observe that the bearish view hinges on “something” breaking, which is undermined by the principle of Occam’s Razor.

The issue is that there are quite a few “somethings” out there and the negative consequences will be large if any of them come to pass.

The clash in views is essentially because there’s a great probability of gaining a little versus the minority chance of losing an awful lot.

So I will lay out the bull case in earnest — and then also the key reasons why it could all go terribly wrong.

Here goes:

The Federal Reserve will pull off an elusive soft landing as powerful disinflationary impulses cause workers to reduce wage demands even though the labor market holds up just fine overall.

This is all aided by aggressive pre-emptive interest rate cuts, perfectly calibrated to restrain inflation even while easing economic stress.

Consumers, powered by positive real incomes, never fully erode their excess savings and hence equity earnings will return to double-digit growth after dropping an estimated 3% last year.

Buoyant liquidity conditions help further, and Fed Chair Jay Powell’s December pivot has validated an extraordinary loosening of financial conditions, which should be a boon to the economy.

Inflation has cooled significantly and core CPI has dropped below 3% on a six-month annualized basis.

The incredible fiscal tailwind won’t dissipate in an election year and there’s the upside risk that artificial intelligence is transformative for US productivity.

There’s a tremendous amount of cash on the sidelines.

After a year where tech drove most of the gains, there are plenty of other pockets of the market for investors to jump on in 2024 and round out the rally. For example, small caps and the equal-weighted counterpart of the S&P 500 are trading at steep discounts relative to the main benchmark.

It’s a compelling picture.

However, hear me out:

For a start, widespread economic complacency just isn’t justified once you consider the gloomy precedents on recession indicators.

The economy will eventually stall - if not slump hard - once higher borrowing costs bite households and corporates, which have largely been shielded from this tightening cycle by refinancing during the pandemic.

In fact, Bloomberg Economics argues that the US may already be in a recession as cracks in the labor market are widening despite strong payrolls numbers.

And history is very clear that economic contractions tend to hurt the stock market very badly indeed.

If a slowdown is averted, the Fed will keep rates elevated as the disinflation impulse fades amid robust economic activity.

The lagged effects of monetary policy will eventually matter for stocks - it’s not unprecedented for equities to start cratering more than a year after rates peak.

And the risk is greatly exacerbated by valuations.

If the Fed were to cut rates now, or if the S&P 500 holds on to current levels when the central bank starts to move, it would be the second-most expensive stock market at the policy turn in almost 60 years. Small caps and the equal-weight benchmark may seem compelling alternatives at first glance but, outside of the Magnificent Seven, corporate America is mired in a profits contraction.

Meanwhile, default rates have been rising and refinancing pressures for vulnerable borrowers are building. Did someone say credit crunch?

To protect cash flows, companies will cut investments and turn to layoffs, sending the unemployment rate higher.

This is at a time when there’s clear evidence that pandemic savings are draining.

Increasingly more Americans are failing on important payments, like auto and credit card debt.

Consumer resilience has been mistaken for consumer invincibility and the belated realization of that misapprehension will coincide with a severe reduction in profits.

Hands up that I’ve been incorrectly bearish for a long time.

Like many, I underestimated the resilience of the US economy, while the AI-triggered euphoria was an outcome few anticipated. But history validates the idea that poor fundamentals will eventually matter.

Now you have both sides of the argument, I’ll leave you to decide which stance has greater merit - but if you’ve finished reading this piece marginally more nervous about US stocks than when you started, I’ll take that as a win.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/09/2024 - 08:35

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One city held a mass passport-getting event

A New Orleans congressman organized a way for people to apply for their passports en masse.

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While the number of Americans who do not have a passport has dropped steadily from more than 80% in 1990 to just over 50% now, a lack of knowledge around passport requirements still keeps a significant portion of the population away from international travel.

Over the four years that passed since the start of covid-19, passport offices have also been dealing with significant backlog due to the high numbers of people who were looking to get a passport post-pandemic. 

Related: Here is why it is (still) taking forever to get a passport

To deal with these concurrent issues, the U.S. State Department recently held a mass passport-getting event in the city of New Orleans. Called the "Passport Acceptance Event," the gathering was held at a local auditorium and invited residents of Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District to complete a passport application on-site with the help of staff and government workers.

A passport case shows the seal featured on American passports.

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'Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required'

"Hey #LA02," Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr. (D-LA), whose office co-hosted the event alongside the city of New Orleans, wrote to his followers on Instagram  (META) . "My office is providing passport services at our #PassportAcceptance event. Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required."

More Travel:

The event was held on March 14 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. While it was designed for those who are already eligible for U.S. citizenship rather than as a way to help non-citizens with immigration questions, it helped those completing the application for the first time fill out forms and make sure they have the photographs and identity documents they need. The passport offices in New Orleans where one would normally have to bring already-completed forms have also been dealing with lines and would require one to book spots weeks in advance.

These are the countries with the highest-ranking passports in 2024

According to Carter Sr.'s communications team, those who submitted their passport application at the event also received expedited processing of two to three weeks (according to the State Department's website, times for regular processing are currently six to eight weeks).

While Carter Sr.'s office has not released the numbers of people who applied for a passport on March 14, photos from the event show that many took advantage of the opportunity to apply for a passport in a group setting and get expedited processing.

Every couple of months, a new ranking agency puts together a list of the most and least powerful passports in the world based on factors such as visa-free travel and opportunities for cross-border business.

In January, global citizenship and financial advisory firm Arton Capital identified United Arab Emirates as having the most powerful passport in 2024. While the United States topped the list of one such ranking in 2014, worsening relations with a number of countries as well as stricter immigration rules even as other countries have taken strides to create opportunities for investors and digital nomads caused the American passport to slip in recent years.

A UAE passport grants holders visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 180 of the world’s 198 countries (this calculation includes disputed territories such as Kosovo and Western Sahara) while Americans currently have the same access to 151 countries.

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Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Several major fast-food chains recently have struggled to keep restaurants open.

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Competition in the fast-food space has been brutal as operators deal with inflation, consumers who are worried about the economy and their jobs and, in recent months, the falling cost of eating at home. 

Add in that many fast-food chains took on more debt during the covid pandemic and that labor costs are rising, and you have a perfect storm of problems. 

It's a situation where Restaurant Brands International (QSR) has suffered as much as any company.  

Related: Wendy's menu drops a fan favorite item, adds something new

Three major Burger King franchise operators filed for bankruptcy in 2023, and the chain saw hundreds of stores close. It also saw multiple Popeyes franchisees move into bankruptcy, with dozens of locations closing.

RBI also stepped in and purchased one of its key franchisees.

"Carrols is the largest Burger King franchisee in the United States today, operating 1,022 Burger King restaurants in 23 states that generated approximately $1.8 billion of system sales during the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2023," RBI said in a news release. Carrols also owns and operates 60 Popeyes restaurants in six states." 

The multichain company made the move after two of its large franchisees, Premier Kings and Meridian, saw multiple locations not purchased when they reached auction after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. In that case, RBI bought select locations but allowed others to close.

Burger King lost hundreds of restaurants in 2023.

Image source: Chen Jianli/Xinhua via Getty

Another fast-food chain faces bankruptcy problems

Bojangles may not be as big a name as Burger King or Popeye's, but it's a popular chain with more than 800 restaurants in eight states.

"Bojangles is a Carolina-born restaurant chain specializing in craveable Southern chicken, biscuits and tea made fresh daily from real recipes, and with a friendly smile," the chain says on its website. "Founded in 1977 as a single location in Charlotte, our beloved brand continues to grow nationwide."

Like RBI, Bojangles uses a franchise model, which makes it dependent on the financial health of its operators. The company ultimately saw all its Maryland locations close due to the financial situation of one of its franchisees.

Unlike. RBI, Bojangles is not public — it was taken private by Durational Capital Management LP and Jordan Co. in 2018 — which means the company does not disclose its financial information to the public. 

That makes it hard to know whether overall softness for the brand contributed to the chain seeing its five Maryland locations after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

Bojangles has a messy bankruptcy situation

Even though the locations still appear on the Bojangles website, they have been shuttered since late 2023. The locations were operated by Salim Kakakhail and Yavir Akbar Durranni. The partners operated under a variety of LLCs, including ABS Network, according to local news channel WUSA9

The station reported that the owners face a state investigation over complaints of wage theft and fraudulent W2s. In November Durranni and ABS Network filed for bankruptcy in New Jersey, WUSA9 reported.

"Not only do former employees say these men owe them money, WUSA9 learned the former owners owe the state, too, and have over $69,000 in back property taxes."

Former employees also say that the restaurant would regularly purchase fried chicken from Popeyes and Safeway when it ran out in their stores, the station reported. 

Bojangles sent the station a comment on the situation.

"The franchisee is no longer in the Bojangles system," the company said. "However, it is important to note in your coverage that franchisees are independent business owners who are licensed to operate a brand but have autonomy over many aspects of their business, including hiring employees and payroll responsibilities."

Kakakhail and Durranni did not respond to multiple requests for comment from WUSA9.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 p…

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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.3% below the average from 1972 to 2022.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.


Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 102.3. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

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