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Key Events This Extremely Busy Week: FOMC, BOJ, BOE, Payrolls, ISM, And Earnings Galore

Key Events This Extremely Busy Week: FOMC, BOJ, BOE, Payrolls, ISM, And Earnings Galore

We start an extremely busy week for markets after…



Key Events This Extremely Busy Week: FOMC, BOJ, BOE, Payrolls, ISM, And Earnings Galore

We start an extremely busy week for markets after a few major landmarks were reached on Friday which DB's Jim Reid felt are worth highlighting. The S&P 500 moved into "correction" territory, now down -10.27% from the July highs. Meanwhile the benchmark small-cap Russell 2000 index went through its June 2022 lows and back to levels last seen in November 2020, around the time that Pfizer announced the first successful Covid-19 vaccine trials. In fact, it's now back to levels it first breached in November 2018. When you factor in the huge inflation over this period, that's some serious real adjusted declines. So for all the optimism surrounding US equities this year it really is only a handful of huge companies that's skewing the positivity.

And speaking of companies skewing performance, if one strips away the Mag 7 stocks, the non-tech heavy SPW, NYA, CWI, RTY equity indices are now all at or below 200wma and down for the year.

The move into correction territory comes as we hit a very busy week of important central bank meetings, data, earnings and a fresh Treasury refunding announcement.

  • The BoJ could be the stand-out (tomorrow) as DB's Japan economist believes (close call) they will revise YCC. That could overshadow the FOMC (Wednesday) and the BoE (Thursday) meeting, where no surprises are expected.
  • In terms of data all roads point towards Payolls on Friday, with ADP and JOLTs (Wednesday) providing the warm-up act.
  • Elsewhere US ISM Manufacturing (Wednesday) and Services (Friday) will be a focal point as will the various global PMI numbers, especially China's.

Over in Europe, the highlights will include the preliminary October CPIs and Q3 GDP reports for Germany today, followed by France, Italy and the Eurozone on Tuesday.

Earnings will be in full flow but with Apple on Thursday the highlight. The full day-by-day calendar is at the end as usual but let's preview the highlights in more detail now below.

  • Starting with the BoJ tomorrow, Deutsche Bank expects (full preview here) the central bank to revise its monetary policy framework but acknowledges it is a close call. They are likely to revise up their inflation forecast for the second successive Outlook Report which makes it hard for them to do nothing. DB would favour the abandonment of YCC but acknowledges that local media have suggested a bias towards tweaks. Even if the BoJ maintains the status quo, the YCC is likely to come under further pressure as expectations of policy normalisation build up .
  • For the Fed on Wednesday, DB economists expect the central bank to stay on hold and see future hikes as a function of financial conditions and the path of the economy. While their baseline is for rates to stay at 5.3% through year end, they see an increasing risk of a hike in December or Q1. They also recently published a note on what the recent tightening in financial conditions mean for the Fed (see here).
  • Linked into financial conditions, the latest US financing estimates (today) and refunding announcement (Wednesday) will be important given how much the early August equivalent spooked the market given the extra supply that it heralded. There is some hope that the Treasury may pause its coupon increases it flagged back in August. However our strategists think this is unlikely. (see their report here).
  • The BoE will round out the busy week for central banks on Thursday; DB expects no change in the Bank Rate (5.25%) or the Bank's forward guidance. The full preview of the meeting here also touches on central bank's forecasts as well as QT. Elsewhere in Europe, Norges Bank will also decide on its monetary policy that day as well.

In terms of payrolls, economists expect the headline to come in at 190k, down from +336k in September with the UAW strike causing around a 35k drag. They also see the unemployment rate remaining at 3.8%. There will be plenty of labor market data before hand with the ECI (tomorrow), JOLTS and ADP (Wednesday), claims (Thursday), and all the employment subcomponents within the PMI surveys.

German GDP today will likely see a -0.3% contraction (consensus -0.2%) with a mild contraction of -0.1% (consensus 0.0%) in the wider Euro area (tomorrow ). Our economists also expect the headline inflation measure for the Euro area to further decline to 3.1% from 4.3% in September, and see the core gauge slowing to 4.1% (4.5%).

Elsewhere, reports indicate Chinese officials may gather as early as today for the National Financial Work Conference that takes place once every five years behind closed doors. The real estate turmoil as well as other financial risks will be key discussion points.

Finally, on the earnings side, we are past peak earnings...

... but it is still an extremely busy week for reporting companies with the likes of Apple, Qualcomm, PayPal, AMD, Roku, First Solar, Pfizer, Caterpiller and others on deck.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday October 30

  • Data: US October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, UK September net consumer credit, mortgage approvals, M4, Japan September retail sales, job-to-applicant ratio, jobless rate, industrial production, Germany Q3 GDP, October CPI, Eurozone October services, industrial and economic confidence
  • Central banks: ECB's Simkus speaks
  • Earnings: McDonald's, Arista Networks, Pinterest

Tuesday October 31

  • Data: US Q3 employment cost index, October MNI Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed services activity, Conference Board consumer confidence, August FHFA house price index, China October PMIs, UK October Lloyds business barometer, Japan October consumer confidence index, September housing starts, Italy October CPI, Q3 GDP, September PPI, France October CPI, Q3 GDP, September PPI, consumer spending, Eurozone October CPI, Q3 GDP, Canada August GDP
  • Central banks: BoJ decision, ECB's Visco and Nagel speak
  • Earnings: Samsung, Pfizer, AMD, Amgen, Caterpillar, Eaton, BASF, BP, AB InBev, MSCI, Ares Management, Global Payments, Xylem, First Solar

Wednesday November 1

  • Data: US October ISM index, ADP report, total vehicle sales, September JOLTS report, construction spending, China October Caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan October monetary base, Italy October budget balance, new car registrations, Canada October manufacturing PMI
  • Central banks: Fed's decision
  • Earnings: Qualcomm, CVS, Mondelez, Airbnb, Humana, McKesson, PayPal, Estee Lauder, Apollo, Kraft Heinz, Electronic Arts, Aston Martin, Orsted, IQVIA, DuPont de Nemours, DoorDash, Marathon Oil, Albemarle, Roku, Etsy

Thursday November 2

  • Data: US Q3 unit labor costs, nonfarm productivity, September factory orders, initial jobless claims, Italy October manufacturing PMI, Germany October unemployment claims rate, France September budget balance
  • Central banks: BoE decision, DMP survey, Norges Bank decision
  • Earnings: Apple, Eli Lilly, ConocoPhillips, Novo Nordisk, S&P Global, Shell, Ferrari, Starbucks, Stryker, Booking, Cigna, Regeneron, Marriott, Fortinet, Cheniere, Palantir, Moderna, Block, Blue Owl Capital, Expedia, DraftKings, Paramount Global, DISH, Peloton

Friday November 3

  • Data: US October jobs report, ISM services index, China October Caixin services PMI, Q3 current account balance, UK October official reserves changes, Italy September unemployment rate, Germany September trade balance, France September industrial production, Q3 private sector payrolls, Eurozone September unemployment rate, Canada October jobs report
  • Central banks: BoE's Hauser, Pill and Haskel speak
  • Earnings: EOG Resources, AP Moller-Maersk, BMW, Dominion Energy, Vonovia

* * *

Finally, turning to just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the employment cost index on Tuesday, JOLTS job openings and ISM manufacturing on Wednesday, and the nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The November FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, October 30

  • 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, October (consensus -16.0, last -18.1)

Tuesday, October 31

  • 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q3 (GS +0.95%, consensus +1.0%, last +1.0%): We estimate the employment cost index to rise by 0.95%, reflecting the significant slowing in Q3 wage data offset by a boost from the benefits component.
  • 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, August (consensus 0.5%, last 0.8%)
  • 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, August (GS 0.8%, consensus 0.8%, last 0.9%)
  • 09:45am Chicago PMI, October (GS 46.1, consensus 45.1, last 44.1): We estimate that the Chicago PMI rebounded by 2pt to 46.1 in October, reflecting upward convergence toward other surveys but a drag from the auto strikes. Our GS manufacturing tracker was unchanged on net at 49.4.
  • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, October (GS 100.4, consensus 100.0, last 103.0)

Wednesday, November 1

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment change, October (GS +170k, consensus +150k, last +89k): We estimate a 170k rise in ADP payroll employment in October, reflecting stronger Big Data employment indicators.
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, October final (consensus 50.0, last 50.0)
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, September (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%)
  • 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, September (GS 9,200k, consensus 9,200k, last 9,610k)
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, October (GS 48.8, consensus 49.0, last 49.0):  We estimate the ISM manufacturing index edged down 0.2pt to 48.8 in October, reflecting a drag from the UAW strikes and a modest seasonal headwind, partially offset by the rebound in East Asian industrial activity. Our GS manufacturing tracker was unchanged on net at 49.4.
  • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, October 31-November 1 meeting: As discussed in the FOMC preview, Fed officials appear to have signaled that they will not be hiking at their November meeting this week. We interpret their recent comments, recapped in our latest Fed Chatterbox, to imply that most would prefer not to hike again, consistent with our forecast that the FOMC will hold the funds rate at 5.25-5.5% until late next year. The market is pricing very little chance of a hike this week and only a roughly 20% probability of a hike at the December meeting.
  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, October (GS 15.6mn, consensus 15.2mn, last 15.7mn)

Thursday, November 2

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q3 preliminary (GS +4.3%, consensus +4.0%, last +3.5%); Unit labor costs, Q3 preliminary (GS flat, consensus +0.7%, last +2.2%): We expect nonfarm productivity growth of +4.3% (qoq saar) in the Q3 preliminary reading. We expect unit labor costs—compensation per hour divided by output per hour—to remain flat in Q3 preliminary reading, which would increase the year-over-year rate to +0.8%.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 28 (GS 210k, consensus 210k, last 210k); Continuing claims, week ended October 21 (GS 1,800k, last 1,790k): We estimate that initial jobless claims remained flat in the week ended October 28 and continuing claims increased by 10k to 1,800k due to residual seasonality.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, September (GS +2.2%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.2%); Durable goods orders, September final (last +4.7%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, September final (last +0.5%); Core capital goods orders, September final (last +0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, September final (last flat)

Friday, November 3

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, October (GS +195k, consensus +190k, last +336k); Private payroll employment, October (GS +160k, consensus +150k, last +263k); Average hourly earnings (mom), October (GS +0.20%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), October (GS +3.94%, consensus +4.0%, last +4.2%); Unemployment rate, October (GS 3.7%, consensus 3.8%, last 3.8%); Labor force participation rate, October (GS 62.8%, consensus 62.8%, last 62.8%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 195k in October (mom sa), reflecting a 225k underlying gain offset by a 30k drag from the United Auto Workers strikes. Big Data indicators indicate strong job growth on net, and initial jobless claims suggest a very low pace of layoff activity. We also believe tight labor markets may have incentivized a pull-forward of pre-holiday hiring. We estimate that the unemployment rate declined to 3.7%, reflecting a rise in household employment and unchanged labor force participation at 62.8%. We estimate a 0.20% increase in average hourly earnings (mom sa) that lowers the year-on-year rate to 3.94%, reflecting waning wage pressures and negative calendar effects (the latter worth -5bps month-over-month, on our estimates).
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, October final (consensus 50.9, last 50.9)
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, October (GS 53.4, consensus 53.0, last 53.6): We estimate that the ISM services index edged down 0.2pt to 53.4 in October. Our forecast reflects a net decline in business surveys (our nonmanufacturing tracker fell 0.7pt to 51.1) but favorable seasonality and resilient consumer demand.

Source: DB, Goldman, BofA

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/30/2023 - 10:00

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Budget grocer has perfect answer to beloved (but discontinued) Trader Joe’s item

The consumer-friendly store, with locations worldwide, for years has been delighting customers with inventive finds.



One of the many delights about shopping at a Trader Joe's is the deep-discount savings it affords its customers. 

The privately held grocery chain offers budget-friendly pricing and a shopping list full of cult-favorite items. 

Customers have access to staples you'd find at most stores, like fresh flower bouquets and prepackaged meats, as well as more inventive offerings, like frozen mochi ice cream treats, crunchy chili spread, spicy Charki Indian snack mix, and an extensive wine aisle. 

Related: 146 fall items are coming to Trader Joe's, and here are insiders' picks for the best ones

The chain, which operates more than 500 stores across the U.S., is able to keep prices low because it sources excess inventory from other retailers, repackages the items, and offers them at tight-budget prices. 

And it doesn't do this alone. Trader Joe's is owned by the German megagrocer Aldi, which operates a similar model, albeit on a much bigger scale. Aldi operates more than 12,000 stores across Europe, the U.S., Australia and China. 

It may not offer some of the more niche products found at Trader Joe's, but given their symbiotic relationship, every once in a while TJs devotees find exactly what they're looking for tucked inside Aldi's aisles. 

Aldi customers source a key Trader Joe's item

Trader Joe's also offers an extensive variety of mixed nuts for reasonable prices. A 16-ounce bag of of raw almonds is $4.99, for example. It offers more inventive flavors, too, such as Thai lime and chili cashews and sweet and spicy pecans. 

Customers shop at the Trader Joe's Upper East Side Bridgemarket grocery store in New York on Thursday, Dec. 2, 2021. Photographer: Jeenah Moon.

Bloomberg/Getty Images

Every now and then, however, some items mysteriously disappear from Trader Joe's shelves. Eagle-eyed customers notice the absence and search furiously for a replacement. 

One such item has been TJ's coconut cashews. An August Reddit discussion on the store's subreddit confirms that the store had indeed discontinued the items sometime this summer. 

"Went to TJs and the Coconut Cashews were not in stock. They checked the computer and they have been discontinued. Totally bummed out as they are one of my favorite TJs nuts. Any suggestions on alternatives?" one Redditor posted.

View the original article to see embedded media.

Now, it seems a welcome answer has popped up in one of the most likely of places: Trader Joe's' parent. 

Some customers have noticed similar-looking nuts, called Aldi’s Southern Grove Coconut Cashews, at Aldi in recent days. Many swear they're similar or an exact duplicate, and they cost $5.99 for a 10-ounce bag.

"These nuts are essentially exactly what they sound like: roasted cashews topped with tiny coconut flakes for some added sweetness," She Finds writes

Other Redditors suggested Costco  (COST) - Get Free Report carries similar nuts under the Edward Marc brand and calls them "addictive." 

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Bankrupt, liquidated retailer making a massive comeback

A big name has come back from the dead and its new owner has huge plans to reintroduce the brand.



When a big-name brand goes bankrupt and has its intellectual property sold at auction, the buyer usually uses the name to leverage the recognition factor. 

That's what happened with Sharper Image, a retailer known for high-end items like expensive massage chairs, drones, and other technology-forward items.

The new owner of the brand has not tried to bring the company back as it was. Instead, the company that purchased the Sharper Image name has splashed it on low-end toys designed for adults. 

Related: Popular retail chain begins bankruptcy liquidation sales

The product line features things like putting greens for your office and other items that vaguely evoke what the company used to sell. 

The new owner has no interest in bringing the brand back. It's just leveraging a name people of a certain age know to get attention for novelty products sold on Target's shelves.

That's usually what happens when a big brand name goes out of business and sort of comes back. At best, you get Toys "R" Us, which has returned looking nothing like the big-box retailer it once was but has had its name revived on the new toy sections at Macy's.

Real comebacks are rare. The former however, has bet its future on the Bed Bath & Beyond brand. The company has not only purchased the IP of the retailer after it declared Chapter 7 bankruptcy, it has rebranded under its name.

That's not just a name change; it's a huge pivot for Overstock. The company's chief executive, Jonathan Johnson, laid out why his company made the purchase and what it plans for the future during its third-quarter-earnings call.

Bed Bath & Beyond's retail stores were all closed.

Image source: TheStreet

Overstock wants to bring back Bed Bath & Beyond

"Over the last three months, we have accelerated our efforts to build the company with a bigger, brighter, bolder future," Johnson said.

"On June 28, we acquired the Bed Bath & Beyond brand and IP, a brand ranked in the top five most recognizable home brands in the United States, alongside titans like Target, Walmart, and Home Depot.

"Within hours of closing the deal, we revived the brand in Canada, and in just 33 days we launched the brand in the U.S. under our unique asset-light operational model."

Asset light means digital without stores. Johnson explained that Overstock (OSTK) - Get Free Report had actually considered buying Bed Bath & Beyond "just a few years ago." That purchase would have cost roughly $2 billion. 

Even after passing, Johnson remained interested for a number of reasons.

"We saw four valuable assets in the business if the right opportunity presented itself," he said. 

"First, the No. 5 most recognizable brand in the home space and as an aside in that same ranking Overstock was No. 25; second an over 100 million person customer file; third, vendor relationships with some of the biggest home category brands in the world; and fourth, valuable intellectual property."

Johnson believes that the purchase decision was obvious.

Here's what's planned for Bed Bath & Beyond

Johnson says his brand has a better chance to succeed under the Bed Bath & Beyond name.

"We were thrilled when that opportunity presented itself and we pounced on it. To strengthen the clarity of the economics of this deal we break down this opportunity into two buckets totaling up to approximately $175 million. First, the approximately $25 million paid to the bankruptcy state for the brand and related IP and acquisition-related fees," he said.

The big opportunity, however, comes with the remaining investment the company plans to make. Johnson's company plans to spend $150 million to leverage the customer names it has acquired. That will include moving into Bed Bath & Beyond's traditional categories, which is an expansion beyond Overstock's roots. 

In addition, the company has again tweaked its corporate identity.

"Earlier this week, we announced our new corporate name Beyond. This new corporate identity builds on the value of our iconic consumer brand. It also recognizes our ability to transform into more than just a single-brand e-commerce retailer," he said.

"Our goal is over time to transform the company into a house of brands, providing a mix of products and services across categories."

Johnson outlined what that will look like going forward.

"Think of this as a bigger, better, bolder Beyond," he said. "Today, we provide a broad selection of on-trend furniture and home furnishing products through a single e-commerce website, Bed Bath & Beyond. 

"In due time, we plan to reimagine the Overstock brand with a standalone website that offers what the brand originally was: a site selling a broad array of clearance products at remarkable prices."

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Successful development of Pauson–Khand reaction with atropisomeric substrates

The rich diversity of organic compounds is a result of the remarkable ability of carbon atoms to connect and form bonds with different molecules. Variations…



The rich diversity of organic compounds is a result of the remarkable ability of carbon atoms to connect and form bonds with different molecules. Variations in these bonding arrangements, as well as the types of atoms and functional groups involved, result in the formation of isomers. They are a type of compounds that share the same molecular formula but exhibit distinct three-dimensional shapes and properties.

Credit: Osamu Kitagawa from Shibaura Institute of Technology (SIT), Japan

The rich diversity of organic compounds is a result of the remarkable ability of carbon atoms to connect and form bonds with different molecules. Variations in these bonding arrangements, as well as the types of atoms and functional groups involved, result in the formation of isomers. They are a type of compounds that share the same molecular formula but exhibit distinct three-dimensional shapes and properties.

Atropisomers are a type of isomers that are formed when bulky substituents or functional groups get attached to a single bond and experience restricted rotation about the bond. This restriction leads to molecules with a distinct spatial arrangement of atoms and functional groups. Atropisomers are often encountered in compounds containing aromatic rings. Notably, compounds formed as a result of restricted rotation around an N−C single bond between the aromatic ring and the functional group are used as chiral ligands and chiral building blocks to create specific stereoisomers with chiral carbon centers. They often find use in various chemical and pharmaceutical applications. However, maintaining axial chirality around the N−C bond is challenging to attain, and this results in a limited number of synthesizable N−C axially chiral compounds.

In a recent study, researchers have now demonstrated that the Pauson–Khand reaction—a chemical reaction for synthesizing molecules containing cyclopentenones—when applied to atropisomeric substrates, can produce new derivatives containing a chiral carbon. The study was made available online on 2 October 2023 and published in the journal Organic Letters on 13 October 2023. It was led by Professor Osamu Kitagawa from the Department of Applied Chemistry at Shibaura Institute of Technology, Japan along with graduate students Ryohei Kasahara and Tatsuya Toyoda. Possibly the first demonstration of this kind, this breakthrough significantly expands the scope of synthesizing such compounds.

Although Pauson–Khand reaction is a widely used reaction for the synthesis of many organic compounds, the reaction with atropisomeric substrates had not been explored yet. Out of academic curiosity, we decided to explore the Pauson–Khand reaction with atropisomeric substrates,” says Prof. Kitagawa, while talking about the study.

To this end, the researchers applied an intramolecular version of the reaction to enantioenriched atropisomeric sulfonamides for synthesizing chiral nitrogen-containing tricyclic compounds. They observed that conducting Pauson–Khand reactions on enantioenriched atropisomeric sulfonamides (78–89% ee) containing various substituents in the presence of a Co2(CO)8 complex led to the formation of products with enantiomeric excesses ranging from 78% to 89%. These findings suggest that the Pauson–Khand reaction can effectively transfer chirality from the starting materials to the reaction products with a high degree of selectivity.

The reaction with enantioenriched N–C axially chiral sulfonamide derivatives proceeded with complete chirality transfer from axial chirality (P configuration) to central chirality (R configuration), affording chiral nitrogen-containing tricyclic compounds,” explains Prof. Kitagawa.

Further, a wide range of substrates were compatible with the reaction, including sulfonamides with methyl-, chloro-, and bromo- substituents, as well as aromatic groups. A crucial factor for the success of this approach was the presence of the Co2(CO)8 complex, which forms an intermediate with the substrate. The specific arrangement of carbon and cobalt atoms within this intermediate controls how alkenes attach to it, promoting the formation of specific enantiomers.

In summary, this level of control over chirality is of significant importance in chemical synthesis and has practical applications in various fields, particularly for the synthesis of pharmaceutical compounds. “With the reaction products possessing a nitrogen-containing tricyclic structure, the reaction can be used for novel applications, such as for the synthesis of natural products and bioactive compounds,” concludes Prof. Kitagawa.







About Shibaura Institute of Technology (SIT), Japan

Shibaura Institute of Technology (SIT) is a private university with campuses in Tokyo and Saitama. Since the establishment of its predecessor, Tokyo Higher School of Industry and Commerce, in 1927, it has maintained “learning through practice” as its philosophy in the education of engineers. SIT was the only private science and engineering university selected for the Top Global University Project sponsored by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology and will receive support from the ministry for 10 years starting from the 2014 academic year. Its motto, “Nurturing engineers who learn from society and contribute to society,” reflects its mission of fostering scientists and engineers who can contribute to the sustainable growth of the world by exposing their over 8,000 students to culturally diverse environments, where they learn to cope, collaborate, and relate with fellow students from around the world.



About Professor Osamu Kitagawa from SIT, Japan

Dr. Osamu Kitagawa is a Professor at the Shibaura Institute of Technology in Japan. He received his BS and PhD from the Tokyo University of Pharmacy and Life Science (then called the Tokyo College of Pharmacy) in 1984 and 1989, respectively. Dr. Kitagawa was working as an Assistant, Lecturer, and Associate Professor there before moving to Shibaura Institute of Technology in 2008. His research interests include the chemistry of novel stereoisomeric molecules and development of novel synthetic organic reactions. He has authored around 100 research articles, which have received more than 4,100 citations.

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