After falling in April and May, the US dollar rebounded in June, gaining against all the major currencies. The move appeared to begin as a technical adjustment to positions after the two-month slide left the greenback over-extended. However, it morphed.
After falling in April and May, the US dollar rebounded in June, gaining against all the major currencies. The move appeared to begin as a technical adjustment to positions after the two-month slide left the greenback over-extended. However, it morphed into a powerful short squeeze after the Federal Reserve moved into a more hawkish direction. At the March FOMC meeting, the median view was for no hike until after 2023. The June forecasts showed the median projection anticipates two hikes in 2023, and seven of the 18 officials think a hike next year will be appropriate.
The US 10-year yield spiked to a three-month low near 1.35% a few days after the FOMC meeting concluded but averaged around 1.50%, which is still the lower end of the range since the end of February. The shorter end of the curve was not as stable. The December 2022 Eurodollar futures contract (three-month deposit rates) rose from around 33 bp in the first half of the month to 55 bp before the end of June. The cash market set a record low, a touch less than a dozen basis points in mid-June. The futures market implies that a full quarter-point hike is discounted by the end of next year and around 60% of a second hike.
In June, US 10-year yields fell more than in Europe and Asia. Australia, which has ordered a lockdown covering areas that contain around 80% of its population, was the sole exception. Its 10-year yield fell 18 bp compared with the 14 bp decline in the US. The short end of the curve was a different matter. The US 2-year yield doubled to 28 bp, its highest level since April 2020. The premium over Germany rose 10 bp to a new high for the year near 93bp. The premium over Japan rose about the same, and at 37 bp, the premium is the most since early Q2 20. The US two-year premium over the UK rose toward 20 bp late last month, a five-month high.
Do not get the wrong idea. The US is not in the front of the queue for adjusting monetary policy. Among the high-income countries, Norway fine-tuned its forward guidance and has signaled a rate hike is likely in September. Judging by the participation rate and the number of jobs created in recent months, Australia’s labor market fully recovered from the pandemic. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on July 6. It is likely to stop its yield-curve control efforts to cap the April 2024 yield at 10 bp, the same as the cash rate. This would entail not extending the target to the November 2024 bond. It seems less clear what the RBA will do with its asset purchases, but it appears likely to slow the purchases from the current A$100 bln six-month pace.
The Bank of Canada is also in the queue. It has begun to slow its bond purchases, and additional tapering could be announced at its July 14 meeting. It is a close call after employment fell in April and May. A strong jobs report on July 9 could help solidify expectations for additional tapering. The market appears to be pricing in a hike in H1 23. New Zealand and the UK are also likely candidates to be in the first group of high-income countries to adjust monetary policy.
The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank are expected to lag behind the US. However, the ECB’s acceleration of its emergency bond-buying is up for review in September. It will meet a little before the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to formally announce slowing its purchases in the fourth quarter, perhaps initially focusing on the Agency mortgage-backed securities. The ECB will face an accelerating economy as the vaccine has made possible the uneven lifting of social restrictions and significant doses of fiscal stimulus. Price pressures also will remain elevated as the base effect peaks.
Time is not a luxury that an increasing number of emerging market central banks experience. Mexico, Hungary, the Czech Republic raised rates, and the markets are pricing in the start of a tightening cycle. Chile, Poland, and South Africa are likely candidates. South Korea has signaled it will likely raise interest rates before the end of the year. Taiwan and the Philippines are probably not far behind. Russia and Brazil are already a few steps into their policy adjustment, and additional moves are likely July and August, respectively.
As the rotating head, Italy will host the G20 meeting on July 9-10 in Venice. There could be an opportunity for the US and China leaders to meet one-on-one. However, there cannot be a rapprochement with a significant change in behavior from China, in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, its trade harassment of Australia, aerial harassment of Taiwan, and its other provocative actions in the region. This is not particularly likely. President Biden has also made some vague threats if Beijing blocks an independent inquiry into the origins of the covid virus. The G20, which includes more emerging market countries, may push back against the minimum corporate tax proposed and the carbon tax, which is thought to fall disproportionately on them.
Biden appears to have grounded his “America is Back” campaign on forging a coalition to check China. Of course, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea are keenly interested, though apparently not sufficient for Tokyo and Seoul to bury their historical grievances. Europe’s concerns are much more regionalized and seem to only be galvanized in extremis. It resisted US efforts to widen the mission of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Some opposition seemed to be based on political realism and commercial benefits, while others wanted nothing to dilute the efforts to contain Russia. Indeed, the fear of Russia in eastern and central Europe was sufficient to prevent a Merkel-Macron initiative to move the EU-Russian relationship beyond the post-Crimea stalemate.
China took three initiatives in June, and they all appeared to yield at least partial success. First, the reserve requirement on foreign currency deposits was lifted as part of the nuanced attempt to steady the yuan without resorting to overt intervention. The official efforts were aided by a general recovery in the dollar for most of June. Second, officials have spoken out against the rise in commodity prices. Many of the industrial metal prices seemed to respond more to the threat than the actual specific official plans to auction some metals from the state’s strategic reserves, some of which had been bought previously to support prices. The government is also cracking down on unlicensed producers. Third, China reiterated its ban on crypto financing, trading, and mining. This was one of the factors that appear to have sparked a significant drop in crypto prices.
China is woefully behind in meeting the objectives of the two-year trade deal with the US. Although it was negotiated by the previous administration, it will be up to Biden’s team how the US will respond. Reports suggest China has largely rebuilt its swineherd, and this may also dampen some US exports (e.g., live hogs) while keeping grain shipments firm. Grain prices have become more sensitive to the drought in the western part of North America and in Brazil.
The CRB Index of commodities rose by 3.75% and finished June at its highest level in six years. Lumber prices fell by more than a third in June, leaving them about a quarter higher since the end of last year. On the other hand, early reports suggest that the wholesale market for used vehicles may have peaked, with retail prices expected to follow with a lag. The shortage of semiconductor chips also is reportedly become less acute.
The imbalance of the supply and demand for oil has sent crude prices soaring. US and China have been drawing down their reserves. The price of WTI has risen by more than 50% this year and has doubled since the vaccine was announced. Although OPEC+ is set to boost output, there is talk of $100 a barrel of oil again. We recall that the last few business downturns were proceeded by a sharp rise in oil prices. Although it is not yet the baseline view, the risks that the combination of the end of the fiscal stimulus, the exhaustion of the pent-up consumer demand, the excesses associated with the surging economy coupled with the dramatic rise in oil prices could spur a downturn late next year seem to be increasing.
The Bannockburn World Currency Index, our
GDP-weighted currency basket fell in June to snap a two-month advance. Most of the currencies fell against the dollar. There were three exceptions, the Brazilian real (~5.0%), Russian ruble (~0.4%), and the Mexican peso (~0.1%). However, together they account for 7% of the BWCI. The euro and Chinese yuan’s combined share is 40%, and they fell by around 3.0% and 1.4% respectively. The weightings will be adjusted next month based on the World Bank’s new 2020 GDP estimates.
Dollar: The dollar corrected higher in June, helped by higher short-term rates and the more hawkish tilt by the Federal Reserve projections showing seven of eighteen now think a hike next year will be appropriate, and the median sees not one but two hikes in 2023. In March, seven officials saw a hike in 2023. Now 13 do. The 2-year yield doubled to 28 bp June. Over the course of the month, the US 10-year premium fell, and the 2-year premium widened. Surveys have suggested that most expect an announcement about tapering not until late August or the September 22 FOMC meeting. It is hard to say that any FOMC meeting is a non-event, but the meeting in late July may be close. The Earned Income Tax Credit and the Child Tax Credit begins payments in the middle of July. The downside pressures on short-term rates may be alleviated when the debt ceiling is either waived or extended. The current waiver expires at the end of July. We suspect the pace of growth is near a cyclical peak, and the base effect that has helped lift measured inflation is also peaking.
Euro: The ECB will not review its decision to maintain an elevated level of bond-buying under its emergency program until the September meeting. Issuance and liquidity tend to suffer in August and ECB purchases may be partly front-loaded. Growth appears to be accelerating as the vaccine rollout is allowing the relaxation of some social restrictions. Extensive fiscal support is still being provided, and EU funds (mostly grants) under the Next Generation (Recovery Fund) initiative are expected to begin being distributed. The pullback since peaking in late May near $1.2265 appears to have largely run its course. although a marginal new low (below $1.1825) cannot be ruled out. Two significant foreign policy initiatives backed by Germany's Merkel, the EU investment agreement with China and the new initiative for a rapprochement with Russia, have faltered. The former will not complete the ratification process because of Beijing's clumsy statecraft the sanctioning some members of the European Parliament before they endorsed the agreement. The attempt to get past Russia's annexation of Crimea (2014) was rebuffed by eastern and central European countries, suggestive of a deeper divergence within the EU, and also lends itself to a sense of the beginning of the post-Merkel era.
(June 30, indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses)
Spot: $1.1860 ($1.2190)
Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.1950 ($1.2100)
Japanese Yen: The dollar edged over JPY111.00 for the first time since last March. Rising oil prices and commodities prices, more generally, are a negative shock for the terms of trade. The extended states of emergency and the continued social restrictions leave Japan as the only major economy that likely contracted in Q2. A strong second-half recovery seems likely as the vaccination program accelerates. Strong foreign demand is providing important support. Prime Minister Suga standing in the poll is low, and he will likely face a leadership challenge in September. The exchange rate remains sensitive to US interest rates, and higher US rates could see the dollar rise further against the yen. The 2019-2020 highs were in the JPY112.20-JPY112.40 area offer the next important targets.
Spot: JPY111.10 (JPY109.85)
Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast JPY110.70 (JPY109.00)
British Pound: Sterling reversed lower after recording a three-year high on June 1 near $1.4250 and did not look back. It dipped briefly below $1.38 for the first time since mid-April on the back of the hawkish Fed on June 16. A convincing move back above $1.40 would confirm a low is in place and a resumption of the bull move, for which we target $1.4350-$1.4375 in Q4. The postponement of the economy-wide re-opening until the middle of July, and a central bank looking past the uptick in CPI above the 2% medium-term target weighed on sentiment. The central bank will update its economic forecasts in August, and both growth and inflation projections likely will be raised. The furlough program ends in September, and it may take a few months for a clear picture of the labor market to emerge. Nevertheless, the market has begun pricing in a rate hike for H1 22.
Spot: $1.3830 ($1.4190)
Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast $1.3930 ($1.4000)
Canadian Dollar: The US dollar's sell-off accelerated after the Bank of Canada announced it would slow its bond-buying operations and brought forward its projection of when the economic slack will be absorbed to the middle of next year. The greenback set a six-year low just above CAD1.20 on June 1 and was already moving above CAD1.22 when the FOMC meeting concluded. It peaked a little below CAD1.2500. Although the social restriction still weighed on the economy in Q2, growth is expected to accelerate in Q3. Canada's labor market disappointed, shedding almost 145k full-time positions in April and May combined. A snapback n June (reported July 9) is seen as the key for the Bank of Canada's forward guidance and pace of tapering to be announced at the July 14 meeting. Rising equities (risk appetites) and commodity prices (terms of trade) typically help underpin the Canadian dollar. Another factor for the exchange rate's two-year interest rate differential edged a couple basis points (to 20) in Canada's favor.
Spot: CAD1.2400 (CAD 1.2075)
Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast CAD1.2325 (CAD1.2300)
Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar fell by about 3.1% against the US dollar in June, offsetting the April and May gains in full. New lows for the year (~$0.7475) were set a few days after the Fed's seemingly hawkish turn saw the US 2-year premium over Australia widen to more than 20 bp, the most since March 2020. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were among the worst-performing major currencies in June. The slow rollout of the vaccine, the least among the OCED, has left Australia vulnerable to the Delta mutation. As the month drew to a close, roughly 80% of the population is facing lockdown orders, the most since the pandemic first struck. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on July 6, and it is will likely drawback from its yield curve control effort, which sought to cap the April 2024 bond at the cash rate target of 10 bp. At issue is whether it will extend it to the November 2024 bond. At the same time, it seems likely to extend its bond-buying program for another six months at a reduced pace. There is risk that the Australian dollar will weaken further in July. The next target is the $0.7380-$0.7400 area.
Spot: $0.7495 ($0.7710)
Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast $0.7610 ($0.7750)
Mexican Peso: The dollar fell to five-month lows against the peso (~MXN19.60) shortly after Mexico's June 6 legislative elections that did not give AMLO's coalition a super-majority needed to enact significant reforms. The firmer dollar tone and signals that AMLO was going to press on with his structural changes, while Brazil was engaged in an aggressive tightening cycle and the hawkish Fed saw the dollar soar to three-month highs of almost MXN20.75. The central bank surprised with a rate 25 bp rate hike on June 24. The dollar quickly fell back to the MXN19.70 area. The central bank meets next on August 12. The market may be at risk of over-correcting and has discounted a 25 bp hike a quarter through the middle of next year when Banxico now projects inflation will peak.
Spot: MXN19.95 (MXN19.9380)
Median Bloomberg One-Month Forecast MXN19.97 (MXN20.2250)
Chinese Yuan: The dollar fell to three-year lows near CNY6.37 at the end of May. The yuan had appreciated by about 2.5% against the dollar through the first five months of the year and was near five-year highs against a trade-weighted basket (CFETS). On June 1, the PBOC hiked the reserve requirement for foreign currency deposits to 7% from 5%. It had been steady since 2007. It aims at reducing onshore foreign currency liquidity, making it more expensive to sell it and buy yuan. At the end of May, Chinese banks reportedly had accumulated more than a trillion dollars of foreign currency deposits due to the large trade surplus and portfolio investment inflows. As part of its broad-based gains, the dollar rose to CNY6.49, a two-month high on June 23. The greenback drifted lower into the month-end, perhaps encouraged by the PBOC's dollar fixings which seemed neutral.
Spot: CNY6.4570 (CNY6.3685)
Median Bloomberg One-month Forecast CNY6.4360 (CNY6.4650)
Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen Copy
Five aerospace investments to buy as wars worsen give investors a chance to acquire shares of companies focused on fortifying national defense. The five…
Five aerospace investments to buy as wars worsen give investors a chance to acquire shares of companies focused on fortifying national defense.
The five aerospace investments to buy provide military products to help protect freedom amid Russia’s ongoing onslaught against Ukraine that began in February 2022, as well as supply arms in the Middle East used after Hamas militants attacked and murdered civilians in Israel on Oct. 7. Even though the S&P 500 recently reached all-time highs, these five aerospace investments have remained reasonably priced and rated as recommendations by seasoned analysts and a pension fund chairman.
State television broadcasts in Russia show the country’s soldiers advancing further into Ukrainian territory, but protests have occurred involving family members of those serving in perilous conditions in the invasion of their neighboring nation to be brought home. Even though hundreds of thousands of Russians also have fled to other countries to avoid compulsory military service, the aggressor’s President Vladimir Putin has vowed to continue to send additional soldiers into the fierce fighting.
While Russia’s land-grab of Crimea and other parts of Ukraine show no end in sight, Israel’s war with Hamas likely will last for at least additional months, according to the latest reports. United Nations’ leaders expressed alarm on Dec. 26 about intensifying Israeli attacks that killed more than 100 Palestinians over two days in part of the Gaza Strip, when 15 members of the Israel Defense Force (IDF) also lost their lives.
Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen: General Dynamics
One of the five aerospace investments to buy as wars worsen is General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), a Reston, Virginia-based aerospace company with more than 100,000 employees in 70-plus countries. A key business unit of General Dynamics is Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, a manufacturer of business aircraft. Other segments of General Dynamics focus on making military products such as Abrams tanks, Stryker fighting vehicles, ASCOD fighting vehicles like the Spanish PIZARRO and British AJAX, LAV-25 Light Armored Vehicles and Flyer-60 lightweight tactical vehicles.
For the U.S. Navy and other allied armed forces, General Dynamics builds Virginia-class attack submarines, Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines, Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers, Expeditionary Sea Base ships, fleet logistics ships, commercial cargo ships, aircraft and naval gun systems, Hydra-70 rockets, military radios and command and control systems. In addition, the company provides radio and optical telescopes, secure mobile phones, PIRANHA and PANDUR wheeled armored vehicles and mobile bridge systems.
Chicago-based investment firm William Blair & Co. is among those recommending General Dynamics. The Chicago firm gave an “outperform” rating to General Dynamics in a Dec. 21 research note.
Gulfstream is seeking G700 FAA certification by the end of 2023, suggesting potentially positive news in the next 10 days, William Blair wrote in its recent research note. The investment firm projected that General Dynamics would trade upward upward upon the G700’s certification.
“General Dynamics’ 2023 aircraft delivery guidance of approximately 134 planes assumes that 19 G700s are delivered in the fourth quarter,” wrote William Blair’s aerospace and defense analyst Louie DiPalma. “Even if deliveries fall short of this target, we believe investors will take a glass-half-full approach upon receipt of the certification.”
Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen: GD Outlook
The G700 is a major focus area for investors because it is Gulfstream’s most significant aircraft introduction since the iconic G650 in 2012, DiPalma wrote. Gulfstream has the highest market share in the long-range jet segment of the private aircraft market, the highest profit margin of aircraft peers and the most premium business aviation brand, he added.
“The aircraft remains immensely popular today with corporations and high-net-worth individuals,” Di Palma wrote. “Elon Musk has reportedly placed an order for a G700 to go along with his existing G650. Qatar Airways announced at the Paris Air Show that 10 G700 aircraft will become part of its fleet.”
G700 deliveries and subsequent G800 deliveries are expected to be the cornerstone of Gulfstream’s growth and margin expansion for the next decade, DiPalma wrote. This should lead to a rebound in the stock price as the margins for the G700 and G800 are very attractive, he added.
Management’s guidance is for the aerospace operating margin to increase from about 13.2% in 2022 to roughly 14.0% in 2023 and 15.8% in 2024. Longer term, a high-teens profit margin appears within reach, DiPalma projected.
In other General Dynamics business segments, William Blair expects several yet-unannounced large contract awards for General Dynamics IT, to go along with C$1.7 billion, or US$1.29 billion, in General Dynamics Mission Systems contracts announced on Dec. 20 for the Canadian Army. General Dynamics shares are poised to have a strong 2024, William Blair wrote.
Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen: VSE Corporation
Alexandria, Virginia-based VSE Corporation’s (NASDAQ: VSEC) price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation multiple of 22 received support when AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), a Wood Dale, Illinois, provider of aviation services, announced on Dec. 21 that it would acquire the product support business of Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), a Berwyn, Pennsylvania, supplier of aerospace services, structures and systems. AAR’s purchase price of $725 million reflects confidence in a continued post-pandemic aerospace rebound.
VSE, a provider of aftermarket distribution and repair services for land, sea and air transportation assets used by government and commercial markets, is rated “outperform” by William Blair. The company’s core services include maintenance, repair and operations (MRO), parts distribution, supply chain management and logistics, engineering support, as well as consulting and training for global commercial, federal, military and defense customers.
“Robust consumer travel demand and aging aircraft fleets have driven elevated maintenance visits,” William Blair’s DiPalma wrote in a Dec. 21 research note. “The AAR–Triumph deal is valued at a premium 13-times 2024 EBITDA multiple, which was in line with the valuation multiple that Heico (NYSE: HEI) paid for Wencor over the summer.”
VSE currently trades at a discounted 9.5 times consensus 2024 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) estimates, as well as 11.6 times consensus 2023 EBITDA.
Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen: VSE Undervalued?
“We expect that VSE shares will trend higher as investors process this deal,” DiPalma wrote. “VSE shares trade at 9.5 times consensus 2024 adjusted EBITDA, compared with peers and M&A comps in the 10-to-14-times range. We think that VSE’s multiple will expand as it closes the divestiture of its federal and defense business and makes strategic acquisitions. We see consistent 15% annual upside for shares as VSE continues to take share in the $110 billion aviation aftermarket industry.”
William Blair reaffirmed its “outperform” rating for VSE on Dec. 21. The main risk to VSE shares is lumpiness associated with its aviation services margins, Di Palma wrote. However, he raised 2024 estimates to further reflect commentary from VSE’s analysts’ day in November.
Five Aerospace Investments to Buy as Wars Worsen: HEICO Corporation
HEICO Corporation (NYSEL: HEI), is a Hollywood, Florida-based technology-driven aerospace, industrial, defense and electronics company that also is ranked as an “outperform” investment by William Blair’s DiPalma. The aerospace aftermarket parts provider recently reported fourth-quarter financials above consensus analysts’ estimates, driven by 20% organic growth in HEICO’s flight support group.
HEICO’s management indicated that the performance of recently acquired Wencor is exceeding expectations. However, HEICO leaders offered color on 2024 organic growth and margin expectations that forecast reduced gains. Even though consensus estimates already assumed slowing growth, it is still not a positive for HEICO, DiPalma wrote.
William Blair forecasts 15% annual upside to HEICO’s shares, based on EBITDA growth. HEICO’s management cited a host of reasons for its quarterly outperformance, highlighted by the continued commercial air travel recovery. The company also referenced new product introductions and efficiency initiatives.
HEICO’s defense product sales increased by 26% sequentially, marking the third consecutive sequential increase in defense product revenue. The company’s leaders conveyed that defense in general is moving in the right direction to enhance financial performance.
Five Dividend-paying Defense and Aerospace Investments to Purchase: XAR
A fourth way to obtain exposure to defense and aerospace investments is through SPDR S&P Aerospace and Defense ETF (XAR). That exchange-traded fund tracks the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index. The fund is overweight in industrials and underweight in technology and consumer cyclicals, said Bob Carlson, a pension fund chairman who heads the Retirement Watch investment newsletter.
Bob Carlson, who heads Retirement Watch, answers questions from Paul Dykewicz.
XAR has 34 securities, and 44.2% of the fund is in the 10 largest positions. The fund is up 25.82% in the last 12 months, 22.03% in the past three months and 7.92% for the last month. Its dividend yield recently measured 0.38%.
The largest positions in the fund recently were Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ: AXON), Boeing (NYSE: BA), L3Harris Technologies (NYSE: LHX), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR) and Virgin Galactic (NYSE: SPCE).
Five Dividend-paying Defense and Aerospace Investments to Purchase: PPA
The second fund recommended by Carlson is Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA), which tracks the SPADE Defense Index. It has the same underweighting and overweighting as XAR, he said.
PPA recently held 52 securities and 53.2% of the fund was in its 10 largest positions. With so many holdings, the fund offers much reduced risk compared to buying individual stocks. The largest positions in the fund recently were Boeing (NYSE: BA), RTX Corp. (NYSE: RTX), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) and General Electric (NYSE:GE).
The fund is up 19.07% for the past year, 50.34% in the last three months and 5.30% during the past month. The dividend yield recently touched 0.69%.
Two fans of aerospace stocks are Mark Skousen, PhD, and seasoned stock picker Jim Woods. The pair team up to head the Fast Money Alert advisory service They already are profitable in their recent recommendation of Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) in Fast Money Alert.
Mark Skousen, a scion of Ben Franklin, meets with Paul Dykewicz.
Jim Woods, a former U.S. Army paratrooper, co-heads Fast Money Alert.
Bryan Perry, who heads the Cash Machine investment newsletter and the Micro-Cap Stock Trader advisory service, recommends satellite services provider Globalstar (NYSE American: GSAT), of Covington, Louisiana, that has jumped 50.00% since he advised buying it two months ago. Perry is averaging a dividend yield of 11.14% in his Cash Machine newsletter but is breaking out with the red-hot recommendation of Globalstar in his Micro-Cap Stock Trader advisory service.
Bryan Perry heads Cash Machine, averaging an 11.14% dividend yield.
Military Equipment Demand Soars amid Multiple Wars
The U.S. military faces an acute need to adopt innovation, to expedite implementation of technological gains, to tap into the talents of people in various industries and to step-up collaboration with private industry and international partners to enhance effectiveness, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. told attendees on Nov 16 at a national security conference. Prime examples of the need are showed by multiple raging wars, including the Middle East and Ukraine. A cold war involves China and its increasingly strained relationships with Taiwan and other Asian nations.
The shocking Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel touched off an ongoing war in the Middle East, coupled with Russia’s February 2022 invasion and continuing assault of neighboring Ukraine. Those brutal military conflicts show the fragility of peace when determined aggressors are willing to use any means necessary to achieve their goals. To fend off such attacks, rapid and effective response is required.
“The Department of Defense is doing more than ever before to deter, defend, and, if necessary, defeat aggression,” Gen. Brown said at the National Security Innovation Forum at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg Center in Washington, D.C.
One of Russia’s war ships, the 360-foot-long Novocherkassk, was damaged on Dec. 26 by a Ukrainian attack on the Black Sea port of Feodosia in Crimea. This video of an explosion at the port that reportedly shows a section of the ship hit by aircraft-guided missiles.
Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr. Photo By: Benjamin Applebaum
National security threats can compel immediate action, Gen. Brown said he quickly learned since taking his post on Oct. 1.
“We may not have much warning when the next fight begins,” Gen. Brown said. “We need to be ready.”
In a pre-recorded speech at the national security conference, Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP, told the John Hopkins national security conference attendees about the critical need for collaboration between government and industry.
“Building enduring technological advances for the U.S. military will help our service members and allies defend freedom across the globe,” Bloomberg said.
The “horrific terrorist attacks” against Israel and civilians living there on Oct. 7 underscore the importance of that mission, Bloomberg added.
Paul Dykewicz, www.pauldykewicz.com, is an accomplished, award-winning journalist who has written for Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, USA Today, the Journal of Commerce, Seeking Alpha, Guru Focus and other publications and websites. Attention Holiday Gift Buyers! Consider purchasing Paul’s inspirational book, “Holy Smokes! Golden Guidance from Notre Dame’s Championship Chaplain,” with a foreword by former national championship-winning football coach Lou Holtz.The uplifting book is great gift and is endorsed by Joe Montana, Joe Theismann, Ara Parseghian, “Rocket” Ismail, Reggie Brooks, Dick Vitale and many others. Call 202-677-4457 for special pricing on multiple-book purchases or autographed copies! Follow Paul on Twitter @PaulDykewicz. He is the editor of StockInvestor.comand DividendInvestor.com, a writer for both websites and a columnist. He further is editorial director of Eagle Financial Publications in Washington, D.C., where he edits monthly investment newsletters, time-sensitive trading alerts, free e-letters and other investment reports. Paul previously served as business editor of Baltimore’s Daily Record newspaper, after writing for the Baltimore Business Journal and Crain Communications.
The New Mexico Department of Health, in a statement, said that a man in Lincoln County “succumbed to the plague.” The man, who was not identified, was hospitalized before his death, officials said.
They further noted that it is the first human case of plague in New Mexico since 2021 and also the first death since 2020, according to the statement. No other details were provided, including how the disease spread to the man.
The agency is now doing outreach in Lincoln County, while “an environmental assessment will also be conducted in the community to look for ongoing risk,” the statement continued.
“This tragic incident serves as a clear reminder of the threat posed by this ancient disease and emphasizes the need for heightened community awareness and proactive measures to prevent its spread,” the agency said.
A bacterial disease that spreads via rodents, it is generally spread to people through the bites of infected fleas. The plague, known as the black death or the bubonic plague, can spread by contact with infected animals such as rodents, pets, or wildlife.
The New Mexico Health Department statement said that pets such as dogs and cats that roam and hunt can bring infected fleas back into homes and put residents at risk.
Officials warned people in the area to “avoid sick or dead rodents and rabbits, and their nests and burrows” and to “prevent pets from roaming and hunting.”
“Talk to your veterinarian about using an appropriate flea control product on your pets as not all products are safe for cats, dogs or your children” and “have sick pets examined promptly by a veterinarian,” it added.
“See your doctor about any unexplained illness involving a sudden and severe fever, the statement continued, adding that locals should clean areas around their home that could house rodents like wood piles, junk piles, old vehicles, and brush piles.
The plague, which is spread by the bacteria Yersinia pestis, famously caused the deaths of an estimated hundreds of millions of Europeans in the 14th and 15th centuries following the Mongol invasions. In that pandemic, the bacteria spread via fleas on black rats, which historians say was not known by the people at the time.
Other outbreaks of the plague, such as the Plague of Justinian in the 6th century, are also believed to have killed about one-fifth of the population of the Byzantine Empire, according to historical records and accounts. In 2013, researchers said the Justinian plague was also caused by the Yersinia pestis bacteria.
But in the United States, it is considered a rare disease and usually occurs only in several countries worldwide. Generally, according to the Mayo Clinic, the bacteria affects only a few people in U.S. rural areas in Western states.
Recent cases have occurred mainly in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Countries with frequent plague cases include Madagascar, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru, the clinic says. There were multiple cases of plague reported in Inner Mongolia, China, in recent years, too.
Symptoms
Symptoms of a bubonic plague infection include headache, chills, fever, and weakness. Health officials say it can usually cause a painful swelling of lymph nodes in the groin, armpit, or neck areas. The swelling usually occurs within about two to eight days.
The disease can generally be treated with antibiotics, but it is usually deadly when not treated, the Mayo Clinic website says.
“Plague is considered a potential bioweapon. The U.S. government has plans and treatments in place if the disease is used as a weapon,” the website also says.
According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the last time that plague deaths were reported in the United States was in 2020 when two people died.
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Real estate is a vibrant, dynamic and competitive industry. From the thrill of a sale to the pursuit of new leads, it keeps you on your toes. That said, it can also be incredibly isolating, and it can be hard to stay motivated. As a way to deal with this, many agents and brokers seek out professional mentorship as a means to gain insight and level up their performance. Across the country, the best real estate coaches serve as valuable mentors who can help agents and brokers achieve the success they deserve.
“It’s really hard for independent business owners to get unbiased advice from themselves,” says Kyle Scott, President of SERHANT. Ventures. “So they need unbiased experts to work with that will help them grow their business — someone who has been there, who has done it, and who is able to see their business from both the 35,000-foot view and down in the weeds.”
A quick internet search will prove that real estate coaching programs are plentiful. Whether you’re looking to expand your team or client network or figure out how to delegate work so you can focus on the tasks you do best, a real estate coaching program could be a valuable launchpad. But when it comes to choosing the right one for your unique needs, there’s a lot to consider. Here, we highlight some of the best real estate coaches in the industry and their programs.
An unbiased view is worth millions. Often, we turn to our closest friends and family for guidance. Unfortunately, they’re usually not familiar with the ins and outs of the real estate industry and can’t provide you with the relevant feedback you need. As a result, many independent contractors rely on themselves, which generally doesn’t work either.
You can’t advise yourself, you’re too close to it. A coach works best for someone who is actually looking to grow their business, someone who is looking to put in the time and the energy to make a difference in achieving more income this year.
Hire a coach if you want to start taking your business to the next level for any reason — you want to make more money, have more freedom with your time, or stop riding the ins and outs of the commission cycle.President of SERHANT. Ventures
1. Sell It Like Serhant
Key Facts
Grown throughout the pandemic, the Sell It Like Serhant program has been carefully adapted to the current market. It follows a weekly and bi-weekly platform featuring one-on-one virtual coaching from Serhant’s proprietary video platform. After a half-hour or hour-long group meeting every week or every other week, participants follow actionable steps to help them grow their business. Thus far, more than 22,000 enrollees in 128 countries have been through the Sell It Like Serhant program.
What We Love
Serhant offers daily office hours so participants can pop into virtual sessions to ask questions or get expert advice between their regularly scheduled sessions. A community platform also allows participants to pass referrals to each other. Thus far, it seems to have worked: To date, participating agents have closed over $250 million of referral deals.
Pricing
There are different membership tiers, depending on the level of guidance you need. The introductory Real Estate Core Course starts at $497. Prices are higher for a more specific course or one with 1:1 coaching.
Who’s it Best For?
If you’re looking to build a memorable personal brand, SERHANT. is the way to go. “The number one differentiator about our program is we understand that as a real estate agent, you have one job: to generate leads,” says SERHANT. Ventures President Kyle Scott. “Our number one focus is helping you build a clear, compelling, memorable personal brand and put your lead generation on autopilot. So that way, you can do what you do best, which is build relationships and close deals.”
Visit Sell It Like Serhant
2. Tom Ferry International
Key Facts
For good reason, Ferry International refers to itself as the real estate industry’s leading coaching and training company. Focused on Ferry’s “8 Levels of Performance,” the programs are a staple of real estate coaching. Their new group coaching sessions cover various aspects of real estate sales.
Prospecting Bootcamp is a 14-hour program comprised of seven two-hour group coaching sessions, and includes a peer-to-peer collaboration space. It involves independent work pulled from training videos and downloadable resources.
Recruitment Roadmap consists of hour-long sessions each week for ten weeks. Completed over Zoom and through the Tom Ferry video platform, each group coaching program offers a high level of specialization.
Finally, their Fast Track program offers 12 interactive group coaching sessions designed to help new agents build the necessary skills to succeed — like mastering listing presentations and handling objections.
What we love
If you’re looking for the gold standard of real estate coaching, Tom Ferry has the goods to back up the bravado. Because of their many years in the biz, Tom Ferry has a huge base of coaches, which means there are plenty of options to find the program best suited for your specific needs.
Pricing
Tom Ferry’s Prospecting Bootcamp and Fast Track coaching programs cost $999 but can be broken down into three monthly payments. The Recruitment Roadmap group coaching costs $1,499 but can be split into three monthly payments of $500. Consider their free coaching consultation if you want to dip your toes in the water. Check out their customer reviews, where several coaching program alums rave about the program.
Who’s it Best For?
If you thrive in a group setting that allows you to feed off the energy of others, Tom Ferry might be right for you. Their group coaching programs are new and more affordable alternatives to often costly 1:1 coaching fees.
Visit Tom Ferry
3. Tim and Julie Harris
Key Facts
The dynamic duo of real estate coaching, Tim and Julie Harris are a major name in the industry. Under their business, Harris Real Estate Coaching, their programs are divided into three tiers: Premier, Premier Plus, and VIP, all of which rely on a user-friendly online platform.
Pricing
Premier platform costs $197 per month, but a 30-day free trial is available. Premier Plus costs $599 per month, while VIP costs $999 per month. Of course, their wildly successful podcast is a great free resource to tap into, as well as Tim and Julie’s many written contributions to HousingWire.
Who’s it Best For?
If you’re constantly on the go, the ability to access the course from any device is a major asset.
4. Candy Miles-Crocker
Key Facts
Newbies are welcome at Candy Miles Crocker’s program. Known as the “Real Life Realtor,” she’s the brain behind Real Life Real Estate Training. With a variety of courses in her offerings, including a plethora of self-paced online courses, Miles-Crocker gives new agents a leg-up on the rest.
What we love
Miles-Crocker is still an active agent, working with clients to close deals. Her 20+ years of experience practicing in Washington, D.C., Virginia and Maryland have helped her build “systems, strategies and scripts” that she shares with her coaching clients.
Pricing
The CORE Essentials Blueprint program retails for $1,597. Smaller, more specific courses, such as The Buyer Presentation, are priced at $347. While all pricing isn’t listed on her website, Miles-Crocker also offers a free course that includes her 6-point system for growth.
Who’s it Best For?
Miles-Crocker’s courses could be beneficial if you are new to agent life or looking to get your business reorganized. She even has one specifically for your first 30 days as a real estate agent.
5. Ashley Harwood
Key Facts
Boston-based Ashley Harwood inspires introverts with her convincing, heartfelt and high-touch approach to practicing real estate. Her very human, very relatable Move Over Extroverts coaching approach is the perfect antidote for cheerleader-style coaches that urge you to door-knock, chase down divorce leads or become a social media superstar.
What we love
Harwood is a licensed agent coaching agents week-in and week-out at no less than three Keller-Williams offices in the great Boston metro. We love her humanity, inspiring videos, and her latest enterpise — The Quiet Success Club. Inspired by Susan Cain’s New York Times bestseller Quiet, about the power of introverts, Harwood brings together a community of like-minded real estate agents wanting a more client-centric approach to succeeding as an agent.
Pricing
Join The Quiet Success Club for $45 per month (paid monthly) or get two months free when you pay for an annual subscription (for $450). The club is currently offering founding member pricing for $25 per month or $250, but it’s a limited-time offer available only under April 30, 2024. Or get a lifetime membership to Harwood’s suite of courses, called IntrovertU, for a one-time cost of $997.
Who’s it Best For?
Introverts, of course! While you may not count yourself as one, if you read Susan Cain’s book, you may unearth your more introverted traits — like recharging your battery by being alone. Ok, even if you don’t bask in solitude, Harwood promises a calming community where agents can be themselves, be seen, and where they don’t have to be the loudest voice in her mastermind group, purposefully (and quietly) designed to teach successful lead generation and other strategies.
6. Levi Lascsak
If you’re looking to improve your social media game, Levi Lascsak is the YouTube master. The author of Passive Prospecting specializes in helping real estate professionals embrace the video platform, and he does so in jam-packed, 2-day virtual events. Discover how he earned over $4 million in gross commission income as a new agent.
What we love
Lascsak’s social media marketing skills are top-of-the-line. While he may not be part of the traditional world of real estate coaching, Lascak’s ability to relate to younger audiences is an asset that Millennial and Gen Z agents might appreciate.
Pricing
The live, 2-day events are available at a discount for $47. But as you can expect, he’s got endless information available for free on YouTube.
Who’s it best for?
If you’re a digital native looking to pack a bunch of education into a short period, a Lascsak course is particularly beneficial.
7. Jess Lenouvel
Key Facts
Promising to help agents scale from six to seven figures, The Listings Lab founder Jess Lenouvel is the author of More Money, Less Hustle. A strong example of a coach with a significant understanding of social media, Lenouvel hosts vibrant live events that hype up the audience and prepare them to take their career to the next level.
What we Love
Lenouvel emphasizes the significant power of mindset to achieve one’s goals. She understands how quickly the market shifts and emphasizes staying on top of trends to succeed.
Lenouvel’s live events focus on messaging. For those looking to solidify their brand and develop a clear, concise message, her events might be what you need.
8. Buffini & Company
Key Facts
Another giant of the real estate coaching industry, Buffini & Company is one of the largest coaching and training companies in the United States. They have two major coaching programs: The Leadership Coaching program includes three monthly coaching calls, free admission to a 2-day conference, and curriculums and training led by Brian Buffini. There are also bi-monthly coaching sessions and a monthly web series with a live Q&A.
Buffini & Company also performs a REALstrengths profile — an in-depth personality assessment. In the One2One Coaching program, there are two coaching calls per month, a monthly marketing kit, the REALStrengths profile, and as with the SERHANT. program, Buffini features the Buffini Referral Network, allowing participants to send and receive referrals with other agents.
What We Love
Buffini coaches aren’t independent contractors. Instead, they’re full-time employees who go through intense training. Thus far, they’ve conducted 1.7 million coaching calls and more than one million hours of coaching.
Pricing
The Leadership Coaching program costs $1,499 a month. Private coaching, referred to as One2One Coaching, costs $549 per month. Two tiers of Referral Maker courses are available from $45 to $149 each per month.
Who’s it Best For?
Team spirit is the name of the game for Buffini’s Leadership Coaching program. If you’re a team leader looking to improve your coaching skills and assist your team in leveling up, the Leadership Coaching program might be right for you. If you want a more personalized path as a solo agent, the One2One Coaching program may be a better fit.
9. Vanda Martin
Key Facts
A popular name in the real estate coaching industry, Vanda Martin’s VIP Coaching Program follows three components: coaching, content, and community. Martin doesn’t shy away from mistakes – instead, she emphasizes avoiding indecision that puts you behind the pack.
What we love
Positive vibes are plentiful in Martin’s world, and her energy is tangible. Just check out her Instagram videos.
Pricing
Martin’s pricing isn’t listed.
Who’s it best for?
If you’re looking for a female leader who emphasizes loving your job and building habits that will take you to a greater level of success, Martin’s ability to convey those feelings is clear. Just check out the endless testimonials on her website.
9. Tat Londono
Key Facts
Tatiana Londono is the founder and CEO of Londono Realty Group Inc. The author of Real Estate Unfiltered, she offers a variety of programming that ranges from free templates to intensive coaching sessions. The Millionaire Realtor Membership provides weekly input from Londono, while the intensive Millionaire Real Estate Agent Coaching Program focuses on building 12-month objectives using a custom success action plan. It uses live programming and workshops with Londono herself, as well as an exclusive online community and referral network for members.
What we love
Londono’s keen sense of social media and her posts are a masterclass in how to boost your engagement on platforms like TikTok and Instagram. Don’t miss her takes on Taylor Swift’s real estate portfolio.
Londono’s programs specifically target agents who are looking to scale their business. If you’re struggling with lead generation or want to increase the number of views you’re racking up on social media, Londono is a valuable source within the industry.
10. Steve Shull
Key Facts
Steve Shull’s Performance Coaching focuses on using consistent execution to achieve your goals. With options ranging from 1:1 private coaching to small group coaching for 10 to 20 agents, the groups have 30-minute Zoom calls three times a day, but the number of sessions you choose to attend is up to you. Several self-directed courses are also available on the website, focusing on topics ranging from mindset to time blocking.
What we love
If you’re not positive you want to make the investment, Performance Coaching allows a 14-day free trial of daily accountability calls.
Pricing
Small group coaching costs $6,000 a year, and while 1:1 coaching prices aren’t listed online, you should prepare for a hefty price tag.
Who’s it Best For?
If you have a specific area you’re looking to improve upon, Performance Coaching offers coaches with unique areas of expertise, ranging from CRMs to business strategy. Tailoring your program to your greatest areas of weakness can help you become a more well-rounded agent.
11. Aaron Novello
Key Facts
Aaron Novello of Elite Real Estate Coaching has several programs tailor-made for agents looking to hone their craft. A Masterclass in Systems works to teach agents how to scale their real estate business, organize their team, and use programming like Follow Up Boss to manage their business.
The Role Play Mastermind is for agents looking to prepare themselves for tough discussions by working with a role-play partner for 15 to 30 minutes, five days a week. The group coaching option includes a variety of scripts Novello used to close on homes, as well as mindset guides, skill sheets, and expert guidance from experts in the field.
What we love
Novello’s exclusive accountability group allows active members and former coaching clients to share everything from guidance to motivation. If you’re looking to save money, Novello also has a free podcast available on YouTube.
If you struggle with having difficult conversations and are looking for solid templates to guide you, Novello’s Role Play Mastermind is a solid investment. The group coaching option emphasizes taking the educational portion and putting it into practice in the real world rather than just watching videos.
12. Krista Mashore Coaching
Key Facts
Filled with energy and known for popping up in the press, Krista Mashore is the mind behind Unstoppable Agent, her 3-day mastery class. It includes over 15 hours of coaching, group workshops, breakout sessions, and skill-building workshops to provide you with the skills to implement digital marketing successfully into your real estate business.
What we love
A positive attitude counts for a lot, and Mashore’s personality is a key component of the success of her course.
Pricing
Mashore’s accessibility is another one of her program’s best assets. Her 3-day class is currently priced at $47, but pricing occasionally varies.
Who’s it best for?
If you crave energy and enthusiasm, Krista Mashore has the goods. She’s also an expert on working in today’s low-inventory market, which is ideal for someone struggling with the current housing shortage. But she’s also got a good sense of humor, which shines through in her social media presence.
The full picture: The best real estate coaches for 2024
Hiring a top real estate coach goes far beyond just expanding your skills. While growing and educating yourself as you navigate your career is essential, hiring a coach is all about seeking to achieve more. Whether you’re looking to boost lead generation, build a solid personal brand, or make more commission income, having the input of a seasoned expert is a priceless step in the right direction. As you can see through the endless reviews and testimonials on coaches’ websites, agents who want to scale their business and take their profits to a higher level often seek the outside guidance of a coach. While the cost of hiring someone may be significant, the return on investment is equally as monumental.
Real estate coaching programs vary in price significantly. Most cost over $500 per month, with others charging several thousand dollars per month. “Oftentimes, it is the case that you get what you pay for,” said Kyle Scott, President of SERHANT. Ventures.
However, prices can also vary depending on the specific niche of real estate coaching you’re focusing on. The more specificity you’re seeking, the higher the financial investment. Of course, self-led courses are likely to cost much less.
Does your career feel stalled right now? Are you ready to take your career to the next level, but you’re not sure where to start? In a down market, you can channel your time and energy into actively improving your business skills so that you’ll be sufficiently prepared for when the market changes.
“When things pick up again, you’re ready to capture the climbing market,” says Scott. “If that’s the case, then the best time to embrace coaching is now. At the same time, a thriving market presents agents with new challenges, ranging from having to turn away business or being unable to service your existing business in a way you’re proud of,” Scott noted. “In that type of market, a real estate coach can help you determine what kind of junior agent or assistant would serve you best. How do I figure out how to manage my business in a way that I can keep up with the volume?”
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