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Is the Buy Everything Trade Stalling?

Is the Buy Everything Trade Stalling?

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3 years ago

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Asian markets stall at start of week

Friday had a buy the rumour, sell the fact look about it as US Non-Farm Payrolls data outperformed, but markets still retreated anyway. Jobs rose by 1.76 million, much better than the 1.5 million expected. However, the v-shaped recovery gnomes of Wall Street decided that wasn’t close enough to last month’s 4.8 million and headed to the exit door. Financial markets can be a tough audience to please sometimes.

Adding to the woes was the breakdown in talks between the Republicans and Democrats over the follow-up stimulus package. Covid-19 continues to rampage across the US, stoking fears of a double-dip in America’s recovery. Coming hard after the banning of WeChat and TikTok by the President, investors seemed more focused on reducing risk into the weekend, concerned by the potential scale of Chinese retaliation.

China has said nothing of note over the weekend regarding the matter, its attention seemingly focused on an official US government visit to Taiwan instead. Hong Kong will likely reflect the concerns today instead, being a listing venue for Tencent. Hong Kong’s police have also arrested several citizens under the new security law this morning, including a prominent media magnate. Hong Kong stocks are likely to be unloved in the first part of the week.

Markets, though, appear to be stalling across the spectrum of instruments, notably amongst the major currencies. But precious metals, oil and even stock markets are all displaying topping formations on their charts, and a fall in momentum. I will stick my neck out here and suggest that this week could be one of correction, with the potential to develop into a deep stall.

As I have written previously, stalling an aircraft close to the ground is the start of a very bad, and very short, day. With plenty of altitude though, a stall is eminently recoverable. In the case of financial markets, they have altitude in abundance, meaning a deep stall and ensuing dive could develop with plenty of room to recover. The introduction of some two-way price action would be a welcome development after uni-directional price action on steroids since mid-March.

Before the headlines break that, “Halley calls top in stock-market rally, the end is nigh for the world,” the building blocks of a continued longer-term appreciation in asset markets remain firmly in place. That is the tidal wave of free central bank money and fiscal stimulus sloshing around in the world’s financial system looking for a home. Think post-GFC, but with much more velocity. US stock markets, for example, could probably retrace 30% from present levels and still be in a bull market. The charts are suggesting though, that the V-shaped recovery buy everything trade is about to run out of airspeed. We should know by the end of this week whether I am a genius or just another top-picker crushed below the feed of the stampeding FOMO-herd.

With the breakdown of talks in the US on Friday, President Trump passed several executive orders from the golf course on Saturday to fill in the gap. The President extended coronavirus unemployment benefits, albeit cutting the payment from $600 per week, to $400 per week. He also suspended payroll tax and suspended student loan repayments and rental housing evictions. The effect on the market was zero because of doubts over the legality of the executive orders themselves. The reduced payments are, in fact, a Federal pay-cut package, and not a stimulus package.

Far more disturbing for the author, is a New York times story circulating this morning, that President Trump has made enquiries about having his image carved into Mount Rushmore. I look forward to the memes.

Both Japan and Singapore are on holiday today, which is likely to mute activity in Asian markets. China’s inflation data has passed without incident today, with Asia’s calendar, otherwise empty. We will receive a plethora of CPI and PPI data from across the globe this week. None of it will have any effect, other than to confirm that there is no inflation anywhere, unless you live in Venezuela or Zimbabwe. The data calendar is strictly B-team this week, until Thursday’s US Initial Jobless Claims, and then Chinese Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and US Retail Sales on Friday.

Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate decision will be of passing interest to the region, if only to see if the RBNZ increases its quantitative easing target or ups rhetoric on negative interest rates. None of the above will be currency supportive, with the New Zealand dollar rally running into serious resistance in the past month.

Markets are likely to be dominated by geopolitical headlines in the first part of the week. That has started with the Hong Kong arrests this morning and a possible lawsuit by Tencent against the US government tomorrow. China will almost certainly announce retaliatory measures this week against US companies, which may be enough to add downside momentum to my corrective prediction.

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Government

Israel Rejects Zelensky’s Request To Visit: “Now Is Not The Time”

Israel Rejects Zelensky’s Request To Visit: "Now Is Not The Time"

Ukraine’s President Zelensky has been refused his own request to visit Israel…

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1 hour ago

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October 16, 2023

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Israel Rejects Zelensky's Request To Visit: "Now Is Not The Time"

Ukraine's President Zelensky has been refused his own request to visit Israel out of "solidarity" after the Oct. 7 deadly attacks by Hamas, in yet another awkward moment for Kiev.

He was reportedly told by the Netanyahu government that "now is not the time" for such a state visit, according to Hebrew-language media. However, his office was told that there might be a later date for such a visit.

File image, Flash90

Israel's i24News wrote that "The yet unexplained denial of Zelensky’s solidarity visit comes as the U.S. President Joe Biden is reportedly expected to visit Israel as soon as Wednesday."

Zelensky had since the start of the new Gaza war issued series of strong statement in support of Israel. "The world must stand united… so that terror does not attempt to take or destroy life anywhere and at any moment," he had said.

He has also claimed that Russia is stoking conflict in the Middle East, also as a way to distract from its operations in Ukraine, but without offering any evidence.

Last Wednesday, Axios reported that "Zelensky's office sent an official request to the Israeli Prime Minister's office asking to coordinate a visit, the Ukrainian and Israeli officials said." 

It seems the pro-Ukraine cause in general, including efforts in Congress and by the Biden administration to keep the billions in aid flowing, has been sapped of its prior enthusiasm and momentum. 

And it's perhaps also the case that Israel perceived that Zelensky is trying to link Ukraine's cause with Israel's as a matter of PR. 

At this moment, a major Israeli full offensive by air and ground appears imminent, though it's been delayed after there was an expectation that it would start this weekend. Some reports have said that bad weather is a factor.

But the Jerusalem Post has offered a different perspective, writing Monday, "Yet, now we have arrived at late Monday, and if anything, the signs (which could also be psychological warfare) are that the invasion is further away, and not yet imminent."

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/16/2023 - 17:35

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Government

Trump Might Win And Have Dems To Thank

Trump Might Win And Have Dems To Thank

Authored by Andy Puzder via RealClear Wire,

Former President Trump has held a slight lead in the RealClearPolitics…

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1 hour ago

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October 16, 2023

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Trump Might Win And Have Dems To Thank

Authored by Andy Puzder via RealClear Wire,

Former President Trump has held a slight lead in the RealClearPolitics Average of the polls since around September 11. While his lead is well within the margin of error, Democrats find it disconcerting that Biden is struggling against Trump. They have unceasingly berated, twice impeached, and four times indicted Trump, yet his support has grown. But Democrats shouldn’t be surprised. In important respects, Trump has them to thank for the strength of his support.  

There are always a lot of moving pieces in an election and it’s early, but Trump’s current support basically comes from three groups: Those who know, love, and miss him; those who may not miss him but miss 2019’s peace and prosperity; and those who believe Democrats are corrupting our justice system to persecute a political opponent. Since 2020, Democrats have solidified support for Trump with the first two groups to the point where you have to wonder whether it was intentional – and then they literally created the third group.

Democrats have made no effort to convert the Trump diehards – flyover country conservatives who hold traditional views of God, country, and family. Among other derogatory references, Biden has berated these voters as “an extremist movement that does not share the basic beliefs of our democracy: the MAGA movement.” That would be all those flag-waving Americans at Trump rallies.

After deriding Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables” in 2016, former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton recently doubled down, calling them “cult members” who may require “a formal deprogramming.”

Suffice it to say, these voters aren’t going anywhere. They have nowhere to go.

And who doesn’t miss 2019’s low inflation, low interest rates, low unemployment, secure border, urban calm, peace breaking out in the Middle East, and no one seriously contemplating World War III. You get nostalgic just thinking about it. The pandemic paused the momentum, but we could have returned to pre-pandemic levels of peace and prosperity when it ended. In fact, at the end of Trump’s term in office, the economy was poised for a major recovery.

But the Biden administration’s excessive spending, anti-U.S. energy policies, lax border security, and utterly incompetent foreign policy rapidly put an end to all that. You can’t really blame people for wanting a return to the days when lower taxes, reduced regulation, a focus on domestic energy production, and a strong – and competent – foreign policy led to both peace and prosperity. The Democrats have made it patently obvious that those are not their policies – they were Trump’s.

While Democrats deserve significant credit for Trump’s strength with the first two groups of voters, they deserve all the credit for the third. This group only exists because Democrats are prosecuting a political opponent for blatantly political reasons.

No president or former president was ever indicted until this pre-election year when four separate Democrat prosecutors targeted and brought charges of questionable validity against a former president – who also ­­­­­happens to be the leading Republican candidate for president. While experts from both parties have questioned the legal gymnastics employed to pursue these charges, polling indicates that the American people can see through this thin veneer of legitimacy on their own. They know no Democrat would have been criminally charged for what the Democrats claim Trump did. In fact, none have been.

There’s a 24-minute YouTube video of Democrats denying election results without fear of prosecution.

President Biden had top secret documents from his time as VP – which he had no right to possess – sitting in his garage (and elsewhere) without fear of prosecution.

Hillary Clinton’s staff used a software program called “BleachBit,” to wipe data from her computer server containing thousands of government emails she had no right to possess – including top secret emails. FBI Director James Comey said at the time that “[w]hile there is evidence of potential violations regarding the handling of classified information, our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case.” Voters may well wonder whether the rules of reason have changed.

In perhaps the most absurd case, a Trump-hating New York prosecutor, who ran on a promise to target him, is threatening to destroy Trump’s family business for allegedly overstating the value of assets to obtain loans. It is undisputed that the loans were never in default, were paid off in full, and that no lenders have complained they were misled.

Of course they haven’t. Any American who has purchased a home knows it doesn’t matter what you tell the lender you think the home is worth. Banks don’t lend based on the borrower’s assessment of an asset’s value. Banks do an independent appraisal and lend based on their own appraisal.

You don’t have to find Trump a sympathetic figure to know that sacrificing the legitimacy of our judicial system to destroy a political opponent threatens what Biden called “the basic beliefs of our democracy.”

This obvious abuse has also solidified support among Trump’s other supporters, dissuading them from switching to other primary candidate. Some see this as the Democrats’ plan to strengthen Trump in the primaries because they believe he is the candidate they can beat. Personally, I believe the Democrats are driven more by blind hatred at this point than reason. But, if that is their plan, it’s a risky one.

Keep in mind that we elect presidents through the electoral college, not by popular vote. Democrat voters are concentrated in heavily populated urban areas in blue states, driving up the percentage of Democrat votes in those states. But winning 51% of a state’s popular vote produces no more electoral college votes than winning 100%, as losing presidential candidates – but popular vote victors – Al Gore and Hillary Clinton can attest.

So, a tie in the popular vote (as reflected in the current polling) augurs well for Trump’s chances. Combining Trump diehards and those nostalgic for 2019 with voters repulsed by political persecution just might be enough to reelect our 45th president as our 47th. If so, we’ll have some overreaching Democrat prosecutors to thank.

Andrew F. Puzder is the former CEO of CKE Restaurants, Inc. and a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and the Pepperdine University School of Public Policy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/16/2023 - 17:55

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International

Europe “Shaken” By “Islamist Terrorist Attack” In Brussels; Shooter Still At Large

Europe "Shaken" By "Islamist Terrorist Attack" In Brussels; Shooter Still At Large

Update (1730ET): French President Emmanuel Macron said…

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October 16, 2023

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Europe "Shaken" By "Islamist Terrorist Attack" In Brussels; Shooter Still At Large

Update (1730ET): French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that Europe had been "shaken" by a "terrorist attack" in Brussels, after two Swedes were killed in a shooting.

"A few minutes ago, Brussels was hit again by an Islamist terrorist attack which apparently, as I speak to you, took the lives of at least two other Europeans, two Swedes," Macron said during a visit to Tirana, according to AFP.

Perhaps most ironically, given the comments from various world l;aders about this "terrorist" attack by a muslim man, who recorded a video of himself explaining this was to "avenge the Muslims that have died for their religion", the Belgian prosecuor has issues a statement that there is 'no immediate link to Israel-Hamas'.

“So there has been a claim via social media where someone says he is the perpetrator, that he has sympathies for IS, and what is also important, he mentions the Swedish nationality of those victims,” Eric Van Der Sypt, a spokesman for the federal prosecutor’s office, told the Belgian broadcaster VTM.

“For now, at the current stage of the investigation, there would be no relationship to the conflict in Gaza,” he added.

Hmm...

Belgium’s government crisis center confirmed reports of the killings and asked the public not to share images or videos that might be related to the incident.

As a reminder, Brussels was hit by major Islamic State terrorist attacks in 2016, which left more than 30 people dead and hundreds injured.

*  *  *

Update (1630): Belgium's crisis center has raised Brussels' terror alert status to its highest level, and France was tightening controls at its border with Belgium, France’s interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, said.

“Horrified by the terrorist attack which left two victims in the heart of Brussels,” Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib said in a post on the X social media network.

“All necessary means must be mobilized to combat radicalism.”

“We are monitoring the situation and ask the people of Brussels to be vigilant,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said in a post on X, but appeared to confirm the link to terrorism:

"I have just offered my sincere condolences to the Swedish prime minister following tonight's harrowing attack on Swedish citizens in Brussels.

"Our thoughts are with the families and friends who lost their loved ones. As close partners, the fight against terrorism is a joint one."

Additionally, the Euro 2024 soccer qualifier between Belgium and Sweden (taking place in Belgium's national stadium in Brussels) has been abandoned at half-time after the attack, with fans locked in the stadium.

No suspect has yet been arrested.

*  *  *

As Remix News' Thomas Brooke reported, two people have been shot dead and others injured in central Brussels on Monday evening and the perpetrator remains at large, Belgian police have said.

Authorities have confirmed a shooting took place in Ieperlaan at around 7:15 p.m. local time and two people of Swedish nationality were killed.

The victims are understood to have been supporters of the Swedish national football team and were visiting the Belgian capital to attend the European Championship qualifying fixture between the two nations at the Heysel Stadium on Monday evening.

Amateur footage circulating outline showed the perpetrator, dressed in a fluorescent orange jacket and wearing a white helmet, equipped with an assault rifle on the rampage in the city. The suspect arrived at the scene on a scooter before opening fire in the street causing pedestrians to flee into a nearby apartment building.

The man followed those fleeing the scene into the lobby of the residential building before firing several more shots, before returning to his scooter and taking off at speed.

Belgian media reported eyewitness testimony which stated the shooter shouted “Allahu Akbar” before opening fire.

Additional footage circulating online purports to be a video message recorded in Arabic by the shooter who is wearing the same identifiable clothing following the attack. According to the Sudinfo news outlet, the attacker said his motivation for the mass shooting was to avenge the deaths of Muslims around the world and boasted about killing “infidels.”

“In his very violent speech, he said he had shot two people to ‘avenge the Muslims and that we live and die for our religion,'” the news site stated.

The tweet is viewable here but not embeddable...

Crisis meetings have taken place between the Belgian federal police, the Brussels local police, the security services, and Belgian Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden and Justice Minister Vincent Van Quickenborne.

Authorities have not yet made an arrest and the suspect remains at large.

This is a developing story...

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/16/2023 - 16:15

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