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Is Gold Overpriced Or Can Its Price Go Even Higher?

Is Gold Overpriced Or Can Its Price Go Even Higher?

Authored by Claudio Grass via The Mises Institute,

This question has been at the center…

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Is Gold Overpriced Or Can Its Price Go Even Higher?

Authored by Claudio Grass via The Mises Institute,

This question has been at the center of a great many conversations I’ve been recently having with clients and friends. The way I like to answer it is with another question: Expensive compared to what?

Despite its recent surge to record highs, there are compelling reasons why purchasing gold right now is a prudent decision, with strong indications that its value is poised to climb even higher. Making investment decisions solely based on the current price of any asset without considering its underlying value or future potential can be prove to be a very costly mistake.

For one thing, it is obvious that there is a reason why gold has skyrocketed to these new levels. Actually, there are many reasons, and all of them are bound to become increasingly important and clear to more and more people in the months and years to come. For example, it is (or it should be) by now blatantly clear to every thinking person that inflation is not under control. Prices in the real economy, as opposed to the cherry-picked and extremely unrepresentative CPI metrics, have been steadily climbing and pushing countless households to the brink.

This is only going to get worse, as central banks around the world have already paved the way for a policy U-turn and the return to expansive monetary policies, including quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates, in order to stimulate economic growth, or the illusion of it (a very useful ploy in a global election year like 2024). These measures invariably lead to further fiat currency devaluation and erosion of purchasing power. This in turn is also very helpful when it comes to the unsustainable debt burden that most advanced economies are saddled with - another great boost during election season. Gold, on the other hand, maintains its intrinsic value over time, making it an attractive alternative to fiat currencies.

Central banks themselves obviously understand the implications of their own policies better than the average investor and that’s why they have always increased their gold reserves in times of turmoil and in times of loose money. In the early days of the pandemic, and then again after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global central banks continued to add to their gold holdings while ETF investors were selling off theirs. Now, once again, we’re seeing a strong trend of ETF outflows. February marked the ninth month in a row, but the price has still been climbing.

As Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, highlighted: “Over the last six months, China, Germany and Turkey have increased their gold holdings by the most (these are official holdings - when it comes to China, its true holdings are likely much higher than stated). Central banks want gold as it is a hard asset, not part of the financialized system when owned outright. But the dominant reason is a desire to diversify away from the dollar. If you’re not on friendly terms with the US, then it is a way to avoid your reserve assets being seized, as happened to Russia.”

This last point gives us a glimpse of a much bigger picture that investors need to bear in mind: Geopolitics.

It’s hard to think of another time in our post-cold-war history that the world has been so bitterly and so dangerously divided. The way the West responded to the Russian invasion of its neighbor, by weaponizing the US dollar and the entire banking system, has caused a lot of countries to think twice about how to safeguard their own assets. The obvious answer is gold, and that is what is behind this monumental transfer of real wealth we’re now seeing from the West to the East. In February, China’s central bank added gold to its reserves for a 16th straight month and it shows no signs of stopping its buying spree, as it is clearly on a mission to diversify its holdings and reduce its dependence on the US dollar.

And it’s not just the Chinese central bank that’s buying. According to the Financial Times, “in recent months, the precious metal has gained a second wind from what analysts describe as “phenomenal” purchases by Chinese consumers seeking a safe place to park their cash after local property and stock markets tumbled.” As ING analysts confirmed in a note, "We expect gold prices to trade higher this year as safe-haven demand continues to be supportive amid geopolitical uncertainty with the ongoing wars and the upcoming U.S. election.”

This is clearly a long-term shift in the gold market and the dynamics behind it have the potential to support much higher prices than what we’re currently seeing. This is precisely why investors need to look at the bigger picture and consider the current levels in their proper content and time horizon.

In other words: Sure, gold might seem expensive today, but today’s price is very likely to seem like a bargain in the not so distant future.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/10/2024 - 14:20

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A new coating method in mRNA engineering points the way to advanced therapies

Researchers from Tokyo Medical and Dental University (TMDU) have developed a novel method for chemically modifying engineered messenger RNA molecules,…

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Researchers from Tokyo Medical and Dental University (TMDU) have developed a novel method for chemically modifying engineered messenger RNA molecules, allowing greater control of their biological functions and advancing mRNA therapeutic technologies

Credit: Department of Advanced Nanomedical Engineering, TMDU

Researchers from Tokyo Medical and Dental University (TMDU) have developed a novel method for chemically modifying engineered messenger RNA molecules, allowing greater control of their biological functions and advancing mRNA therapeutic technologies

Tokyo, Japan – Medicine can help to treat certain illnesses, e.g., antibiotics can help overcome infections, but a new, promising field of medicine involves providing our body with the “blueprint” for how to defeat illnesses on its own.

mRNA therapeutics is the delivery of messenger RNA (mRNA) molecules into the body, which the cellular machinery can use to make specific proteins. The field is rapidly advancing, especially because mRNA vaccines proved successful against COVID-19. However, the delivery of these engineered mRNAs to a specific organ has proved challenging.

Now, a team at Tokyo Medical and Dental University (TMDU) has shown that coating the engineered mRNAs with a molecule called polyethylene glycol, or PEG, allows their delivery selectively to the spleen.

To understand this achievement, let’s first discuss how mRNA therapeutics has worked until now. Engineered mRNAs have been packaged into structures called “polyplexes” for delivery into the body. The polyplex structures allow mRNAs to remain stable while outside cells and to be released in a controlled manner once inside cells. Once inside, the mRNAs are used by cellular machinery to produce proteins that are naturally dysfunctional or absent.

Without modification, the polyplexes tend to accumulate in the lungs, as after injection into the blood they rapidly stick to each other and surrounding proteins and cells and become lodged in the lung’s blood vessels. Treating polyplexes with PEG, a process called “PEGylation”, prevents them from sticking together; however, applying PEG in a controlled, consistent manner to the polyplex surface is very difficult.

The team at TMDU has developed a new method of PEGylation, where the mRNAs are hybridized to PEG molecules before the polyplexes are formed. Using this method, almost all the PEG strands mixed into the reaction become bound to the polyplexes, allowing much greater control over the final amount of PEG on the polyplex surface.

Using a mouse model, the team found that the quantities and lengths of the PEG molecules significantly affected how well the mRNA therapy worked. A small number of short PEG molecules prevented accumulation of the engineered mRNAs in the lungs, facilitating effective delivery to the spleen. This approach has demonstrated utility in mRNA vaccines.

“Our novel method allows fine tuning of the amount of PEGylation of mRNA polyplexes,” explains senior author Dr. Satoshi Uchida, “which in turn allows control of the physicochemical properties of the polyplexes, and thus their biological functionalities.”

mRNA technology has wide-ranging potential for treating many diseases that have previously been considered incurable, as well as for the development of novel cancer treatments and vaccines. The development of this innovative technique paves the way for significant advances in the therapeutic use of mRNA polyplexes, with far-reaching potential consequences for human health.

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The article, “Poly(ethylene Glycol) (PEG)–OligoRNA Hybridization to mRNA Enables Fine-Tuned Polyplex PEGylation for Spleen-Targeted mRNA Delivery”, was published in Small Science at DOI: 10.1002/smsc.202300258.


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CAMH develops first ever clinically validated natural supplement to prevent postpartum blues

A new study published in the Lancet discovery science  journal eClinicalMedicine has confirmed that a novel natural supplement—invented, researched,…

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A new study published in the Lancet discovery science  journal eClinicalMedicine has confirmed that a novel natural supplement—invented, researched, developed and commercialized at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH)—prevents postpartum blues, and reduces symptoms of postpartum depression over the following six months after giving birth.

Credit: Image courtesy of CAMH. All rights reserved.

A new study published in the Lancet discovery science  journal eClinicalMedicine has confirmed that a novel natural supplement—invented, researched, developed and commercialized at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH)—prevents postpartum blues, and reduces symptoms of postpartum depression over the following six months after giving birth.

Up to 8 out of ten new mothers experience postpartum, or ‘baby,’ blues, characterized by mood swings, crying spells, anxiety and difficulty sleeping. The condition usually begins within the first few days after delivery and may last for up to two weeks. Postpartum blues strongly raises the risk of postpartum depression, a serious mental illness affecting 13 per cent of mothers. Postpartum depression has important health care consequences: impairing quality of life, increasing risk for future depressive episodes and suicide, and is associated with cognitive and emotional effects in children. Until now, options for widespread prevention have been lacking for either condition.

The study, entitled Dietary Supplement for Mood Symptoms in Early Postpartum: A Double-Blind Randomized Placebo Controlled Trial, involved more than 100 postpartum participants between January 2019 and December 2022 who either took four doses of the natural supplement several days after giving birth, or a matching placebo. Within the supplement group, two-thirds (66 per cent) experienced either no symptoms or only negligible symptoms of postpartum blues. Furthermore, in the following six months, participants who received the supplement experienced less symptoms of depression with none reaching the clinical threshold of postpartum depression six months after giving birth.

“Globally 140 million births take place every year. Most women then experience postpartum blues, which, when severe, increases the likelihood of getting full-blown postpartum depression at least fourfold. Our study showed that both postpartum blues and later symptoms of depression were lower in women who received the dietary supplement,” said Dr. Jeffrey Meyer, inventor of the nutraceutical and study senior author. “Providing this specialized dietary support in the first few days after giving birth is a crucial window to avoid depressive symptoms which is tremendously important given there is considerable risk that they may recur and have lifelong impact.”

Dr. Meyer has been investigating postpartum blues for more than 15 years. His previous imaging research found that a protein called MAO-A rises dramatically in the brains of postpartum women and this protein removes important brain chemicals—like serotonin and dopamine—that support normal mood. It also acts as an oxidant and is linked to the development and progression of certain mental illnesses. To combat this effect, the nutraceutical is made up of a patented unique combination of natural ingredients, including blueberry extract, which contain antioxidants, and amino acids that replenish essential neurochemicals in the brain to support healthy mood and the ability to concentrate under stress. The supplement was well tolerated and women who took it tended to report less symptoms, in part due to less drowsiness, headache and restlessness. The researchers previously showed that the amino acids in the supplement do not affect their total concentrations in breast milk, which was expected since these amino acids are already found in proteins in breast milk.     

CAMH has partnered with international women’s health supplement and pharmaceutical company Exeltis via a licensing agreement to bring the product to market under the name Blues Away®. Exeltis has maintained the natural health product approach in their preparations and manufacture for widespread distribution of the supplement. It is expected that the product will be available for sale in the U.S. beginning April 11, 2024.  It is also in the process of being brought to other global markets—including Canada—with the pace of approvals being dependent on each country’s regulatory requirements and reviews. 

“We are thrilled to unveil the culmination of years of dedication and collaboration in the form of our groundbreaking nutraceutical for postpartum blues prevention. It is great that we are able to simultaneously share our clinical research around this product while also partnering with a  global women’s health industry leader to make it available to the new mothers who need it,” said Klara Vichnevetski, Director of Industry Partnerships and Technology Transfer. CAMH has nurtured this innovation from its inception, guiding it from bench to bedside where it can make an immediate and profound difference in the lives of millions of women and their families.”

A limitation of the study was that, of the several measures of depression in the study, the supplement did not demonstrate the expected protective effect in an experimental test that involves inducing low mood with sad stimuli, although it is possible that the stress of the COVID-19 pandemic and moving the setting of the study to participant’s homes during the pandemic may have influenced the results of this particular test.

Aristotle Voineskos, Vice President of Research, added: “Two major pillars of our CAMH approach to research are the importance of integrating scientific findings into advancing mental health care and the value of early intervention. Through the perseverance and dedication of our researchers and technology transfer team, this novel preventative therapy may contribute to best practice when it comes to postpartum care and help women around the world avoid more serious and chronic mental illness.”

This research was funded by CAMH, with some additional funding from Exeltis.

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About the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH)

CAMH is Canada’s largest mental health and addiction teaching hospital and a world leading research centre in this field. CAMH combines clinical care, research, education, policy development and health promotion to help transform the lives of people affected by mental illness and addiction. CAMH is fully affiliated with the University of Toronto, and is a Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization Collaborating Centre. For more information, please visit camh.ca or follow @CAMHnews on Twitter.

Media Contact:

CAMH Media Relations
media@camh.ca


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‘Bird Flu-Pocalypse’ Forces Hong Kong To Suspend Some Imports Of US Poultry Meat

‘Bird Flu-Pocalypse’ Forces Hong Kong To Suspend Some Imports Of US Poultry Meat

The recent spread of bird flu—also known as highly pathogenic…

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'Bird Flu-Pocalypse' Forces Hong Kong To Suspend Some Imports Of US Poultry Meat

The recent spread of bird flu—also known as highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI— across several US states has been hyped by corporate media. Some journalists are quoting 'experts' who warn the bird flu pandemic could be '100 times worse' than Covid.' 

According to Bloomberg data, the story count in corporate media for all things "Bird Flu" last week hit a record high on data going back to 2014. 

The context here is crucial. Bird flu is not just a US issue anymore; it's 'going global,' and this is happening just before the US presidential elections in November.  

On Tuesday, Hong Kong's food safety authority published a memo stating, "Import of poultry meat and poultry products suspended in some areas of the United States." 

Here's the full memo from the Center for Food Safety (CFS) of the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department:

The Center for Food Safety (CFS) of the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department announced today (April 9) that in response to a notification from the World Organization for Animal Health regarding an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in Ionia County, Michigan, and Parmer County, Texas, USA, The CFS immediately instructed the trade to suspend the import of poultry meat and poultry products (including poultry eggs) from the above-mentioned areas to protect public health in Hong Kong.

A spokesman for the CFS said that according to the Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong imported about 37,770 tonnes of chilled and frozen poultry meat and about 83.84 million poultry eggs from the United States last year.

The spokesman said: "The CFS has contacted the US authorities regarding the incident and will continue to closely monitor information on the outbreak of avian influenza from the World Organization for Animal Health and relevant authorities, and will take appropriate actions in light of the development of the local epidemic."

If it's bird flu or whatever "Disease X" could possibly be, there appears to be a push to "intersect" some type of 'Covid crisis' before the 2024 US elections.

"They will surely try to run their "Disease X" ruse. But they have already lost the trust of the people they made war against in their own country. In which case, expect resistance among the un-sick," James Howard Kunstler penned in a note earlier this month.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/09/2024 - 21:20

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