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Is America a part-time economy? Half a million full-time roles vanish since May 2022

Unemployment in the US is back down to five-decade lows of 3.5%. That’s the latest from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment situation report…

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Unemployment in the US is back down to five-decade lows of 3.5%. That’s the latest from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment situation report released on Friday.

Despite the surge in the federal funds rate throughout 2022, the job numbers seem to be going from strength to strength, with the BLS’s reporting showing an increase of 223,000 in nonfarm payrolls (NFP) for the month of December.

This was well above consensus estimates of 200,000 but moderated from initial November data of 263,000.

Is that good news? Great news? More like incomplete news.

What did the report say?

The average job creation per month for 2022 was 375,000, as opposed to between 150,000-200,000 prior to lockdowns.

The sharp rise in job creation in the past two years follows the mass layoffs and great resignation that occurred amid the viral outbreaks.

In December, jobs gains were made primarily in leisure and hospitality (67,000), health care (55,000), construction (28,000), and social assistance (20,000).

Although still above the pre-pandemic trend, the monthly jobs number is clearly settling into a declining trend over the past few months.

Source: BLS; October and November data reflect downward revisions

Crucially, average hourly earnings continued to rise, increasing by 0.3% in December, and up 4.6% over the year.

The annual and monthly average hourly earnings moderated from 4.8% and 0.4% in November, respectively.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Even though wage growth has been occurring, this is well below CPI (which you can read about here), resulting in a loss of earning power.

As wage growth continues to moderate, surveys suggest that consumer expenditure expectations are waning (commentary of which is available here).

Twin measures

The BLS’s employment situation report publishes two different indicators – employment level and nonfarm payrolls (jobs), which each come from separate surveys – the household survey and the establishment survey, respectively.

The two measures do not imply the same thing.

Roughly, employment refers to persons (16 years or above) who have worked 1 hour or more over the week in which the survey was conducted. This could be in a professional organization, their own company, or a farm.

In the case of a family enterprise, unpaid workers are also included if they work more than 15 hours during the week.

Employment also includes workers who were temporarily absent from work under a variety of scenarios including vacation, illness, personal issues, and a host of other reasons.

The key point is that while tallying up the employment number, each worker is only counted once, even if they are working in multiple jobs.

On the other hand, nonfarm payrolls drawn from the establishment survey theoretically count all US workers leaving out farm employees and some other categories such as proprietors, private household employees and unpaid volunteers.

However, this number is vulnerable to double counting, especially if workers are employed in multiple jobs at once.

The employment level could also be susceptible to overcounting or disguising underemployment, given that in many cases the respondents need only have worked one hour to qualify.

Full-time carnage

The total employed population of the United States in December 2022 was measured at 159,244,000.

Total employment has risen by 717,000 since November 2022, when it was pegged at 158,527,000.

That sounds pretty impressive until we realize that the numerical strength of part-time workers increased by 592,000, or nearly 83% of that 717,000.

Of these part-time workers, 190,000 comprise those who are available for full-time work but had to settle for a part-time schedule.

402,000 workers did so due to childcare issues, family, or personal obligations, or joining school or training, among other reasons.

Perhaps more importantly, full-time employment has continued to decline in the US, having slipped from its peak this year of 132,743,000 in May, to 132,299,000 in the most recent report.

Source: BLS, FRED Database

That means 444,000 full-time positions have disappeared in the US over the past 7 months, as opposed to the idea that recent jobs reports have been relentlessly resilient in the face of unprecedented tightening.

Full-time roles were virtually unchanged in December, having declined by 1,000.

However, since May, the total employment level has risen by 945,000, even though, as discussed, full-time roles have been squeezed.

This implies that an increasing number of people are being let go from full-time work, taking up part-time positions, or even accepting additional work to support themselves and their families amid rising living costs.

This suggests that the strong employment headlines we are seeing are primarily a function of the uptake of part-time workers, while full-time roles are going off the market.

Perhaps being anxious about future economic prospects, companies and businesses are more comfortable engaging fractional workers than previously thought.

Mike Shedlock, a well-known economic blogger and registered investment advisor, has been one of the strongest proponents of the idea that the job market has been weak, stating,

This is not strong employment growth… The internal details have been weak for 9 month…

The latest numbers also saw revisions that reduced employment increases in October and November by a total of 28,000.

Moreover, average hours worked fell by 0.1 hours during a week, demonstrating further weakness.

Shedlock added,

This is the second consecutive month of declining work hours. A tenth of an hour may not sound like much but multiply it by 159,244,000 employees and it’s 15,924,400 hours less work.

U-3 versus U-6

The US government calculates multiple measures of unemployment.

The most popular is U-3 and as discussed, is at historic lows of 3.5%.

While the unemployment rate has been under 4% since February 2022, the number of unemployed persons dropped by 278,000, to a total of 5,722,000 in December.

The U-6 on the other hand is rarely invoked, and yet, it gives a much more accurate picture of the job market.

It includes the unemployed as in U-3, but also the underemployed, those who have returned to school or have lost work due to disability.

At present, U-6 is at 6.5%, nearly double U-3, and signals a much higher degree of distress in the labour market than has ordinarily been acknowledged.

Although both measures are at historic lows, that’s when we remember the volume of exits from the labour force over the last few years.

Source: FRED Database

Since the pandemic, there has been an exodus of workers from the labour force due to factors such as retirement, health concerns, strong portfolio returns in the financial markets and a rising proportion of discouraged workers.

This trend is a source of distortion for unemployment rates and are making them appear better than they actually are.

In the latest Fed minutes, FOMC members acknowledged that certain measures of employment other than U3 indicated that the job market may not be as robust as portrayed by headline numbers.

Outlook

Fed policymakers acknowledged that restoring price stability sustainably may not be as easily achievable as earlier thought, noting that,

…risks to the inflation projection as skewed to the upside.

This has only added fuel to the fire, with market participants already doubting the institution’s resolve to maintain its stated rate pathway.

Given the continuing weakness in the employment situation, not to mention the sinking housing market (which you can read about here), the pullback in manufacturing activity and the “compressed lag” effect (an article on which is available here on Invezz), the economy is all set to take the plunge into even harder times.

Small businesses are already gravely suffering under the weight of higher rates and have witnessed a slew of closures.

Although, the Fed called for greater flexibility and optionality moving ahead, the institution is now in precarious territory, although not entirely unexpectedly.

The likelihood that it will resist the urge to loosen monetary policy is relatively low.

In the long run, the rising number of retirees will also lead to more pressure on wages, which likely means that inflation isn’t done with us yet.

The post Is America a part-time economy? Half a million full-time roles vanish since May 2022 appeared first on Invezz.

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United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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March 8, 2024

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

Shutterstock

United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

More Travel:

"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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International

Walmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program

The retail superstore is adding a new feature to its Walmart+ plan — and customers will be happy.

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March 8, 2024

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It's just been a few days since Target  (TGT)  launched its new Target Circle 360 paid membership plan. 

The plan offers free and fast shipping on many products to customers, initially for $49 a year and then $99 after the initial promotional signup period. It promises to be a success, since many Target customers are loyal to the brand and will go out of their way to shop at one instead of at its two larger peers, Walmart and Amazon.

Related: Walmart makes a major price cut that will delight customers

And stop us if this sounds familiar: Target will rely on its more than 2,000 stores to act as fulfillment hubs. 

This model is a proven winner; Walmart also uses its more than 4,600 stores as fulfillment and shipping locations to get orders to customers as soon as possible.

Sometimes, this means shipping goods from the nearest warehouse. But if a desired product is in-store and closer to a customer, it reduces miles on the road and delivery time. It's a kind of logistical magic that makes any efficiency lover's (or retail nerd's) heart go pitter patter. 

Walmart rolls out answer to Target's new membership tier

Walmart has certainly had more time than Target to develop and work out the kinks in Walmart+. It first launched the paid membership in 2020 during the height of the pandemic, when many shoppers sheltered at home but still required many staples they might ordinarily pick up at a Walmart, like cleaning supplies, personal-care products, pantry goods and, of course, toilet paper. 

It also undercut Amazon  (AMZN)  Prime, which costs customers $139 a year for free and fast shipping (plus several other benefits including access to its streaming service, Amazon Prime Video). 

Walmart+ costs $98 a year, which also gets you free and speedy delivery, plus access to a Paramount+ streaming subscription, fuel savings, and more. 

An employee at a Merida, Mexico, Walmart. (Photo by Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Jeff Greenberg/Getty Images

If that's not enough to tempt you, however, Walmart+ just added a new benefit to its membership program, ostensibly to compete directly with something Target now has: ultrafast delivery. 

Target Circle 360 particularly attracts customers with free same-day delivery for select orders over $35 and as little as one-hour delivery on select items. Target executes this through its Shipt subsidiary.

We've seen this lightning-fast delivery speed only in snippets from Amazon, the king of delivery efficiency. Who better to take on Target, though, than Walmart, which is using a similar store-as-fulfillment-center model? 

"Walmart is stepping up to save our customers even more time with our latest delivery offering: Express On-Demand Early Morning Delivery," Walmart said in a statement, just a day after Target Circle 360 launched. "Starting at 6 a.m., earlier than ever before, customers can enjoy the convenience of On-Demand delivery."

Walmart  (WMT)  clearly sees consumers' desire for near-instant delivery, which obviously saves time and trips to the store. Rather than waiting a day for your order to show up, it might be on your doorstep when you wake up. 

Consumers also tend to spend more money when they shop online, and they remain stickier as paying annual members. So, to a growing number of retail giants, almost instant gratification like this seems like something worth striving for.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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President Biden Delivers The “Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President”

President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through…

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March 8, 2024

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President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through the State of The Union, President Biden can go back to his crypt now.

Whatever 'they' gave Biden, every American man, woman, and the other should be allowed to take it - though it seems the cocktail brings out 'dark Brandon'?

Tl;dw: Biden's Speech tonight ...

  • Fund Ukraine.

  • Trump is threat to democracy and America itself.

  • Abortion is good.

  • American Economy is stronger than ever.

  • Inflation wasn't Biden's fault.

  • Illegals are Americans too.

  • Republicans are responsible for the border crisis.

  • Trump is bad.

  • Biden stands with trans-children.

  • J6 was the worst insurrection since the Civil War.

(h/t @TCDMS99)

Tucker Carlson's response sums it all up perfectly:

"that was possibly the darkest, most un-American speech given by an American president. It wasn't a speech, it was a rant..."

Carlson continued: "The true measure of a nation's greatness lies within its capacity to control borders, yet Bid refuses to do it."

"In a fair election, Joe Biden cannot win"

And concluded:

“There was not a meaningful word for the entire duration about the things that actually matter to people who live here.”

Victor Davis Hanson added some excellent color, but this was probably the best line on Biden:

"he doesn't care... he lives in an alternative reality."

*  *  *

Watch SOTU Live here...

*   *   *

Mises' Connor O'Keeffe, warns: "Be on the Lookout for These Lies in Biden's State of the Union Address." 

On Thursday evening, President Joe Biden is set to give his third State of the Union address. The political press has been buzzing with speculation over what the president will say. That speculation, however, is focused more on how Biden will perform, and which issues he will prioritize. Much of the speech is expected to be familiar.

The story Biden will tell about what he has done as president and where the country finds itself as a result will be the same dishonest story he's been telling since at least the summer.

He'll cite government statistics to say the economy is growing, unemployment is low, and inflation is down.

Something that has been frustrating Biden, his team, and his allies in the media is that the American people do not feel as economically well off as the official data says they are. Despite what the White House and establishment-friendly journalists say, the problem lies with the data, not the American people's ability to perceive their own well-being.

As I wrote back in January, the reason for the discrepancy is the lack of distinction made between private economic activity and government spending in the most frequently cited economic indicators. There is an important difference between the two:

  • Government, unlike any other entity in the economy, can simply take money and resources from others to spend on things and hire people. Whether or not the spending brings people value is irrelevant

  • It's the private sector that's responsible for producing goods and services that actually meet people's needs and wants. So, the private components of the economy have the most significant effect on people's economic well-being.

Recently, government spending and hiring has accounted for a larger than normal share of both economic activity and employment. This means the government is propping up these traditional measures, making the economy appear better than it actually is. Also, many of the jobs Biden and his allies take credit for creating will quickly go away once it becomes clear that consumers don't actually want whatever the government encouraged these companies to produce.

On top of all that, the administration is dealing with the consequences of their chosen inflation rhetoric.

Since its peak in the summer of 2022, the president's team has talked about inflation "coming back down," which can easily give the impression that it's prices that will eventually come back down.

But that's not what that phrase means. It would be more honest to say that price increases are slowing down.

Americans are finally waking up to the fact that the cost of living will not return to prepandemic levels, and they're not happy about it.

The president has made some clumsy attempts at damage control, such as a Super Bowl Sunday video attacking food companies for "shrinkflation"—selling smaller portions at the same price instead of simply raising prices.

In his speech Thursday, Biden is expected to play up his desire to crack down on the "corporate greed" he's blaming for high prices.

In the name of "bringing down costs for Americans," the administration wants to implement targeted price ceilings - something anyone who has taken even a single economics class could tell you does more harm than good. Biden would never place the blame for the dramatic price increases we've experienced during his term where it actually belongs—on all the government spending that he and President Donald Trump oversaw during the pandemic, funded by the creation of $6 trillion out of thin air - because that kind of spending is precisely what he hopes to kick back up in a second term.

If reelected, the president wants to "revive" parts of his so-called Build Back Better agenda, which he tried and failed to pass in his first year. That would bring a significant expansion of domestic spending. And Biden remains committed to the idea that Americans must be forced to continue funding the war in Ukraine. That's another topic Biden is expected to highlight in the State of the Union, likely accompanied by the lie that Ukraine spending is good for the American economy. It isn't.

It's not possible to predict all the ways President Biden will exaggerate, mislead, and outright lie in his speech on Thursday. But we can be sure of two things. The "state of the Union" is not as strong as Biden will say it is. And his policy ambitions risk making it much worse.

*  *  *

The American people will be tuning in on their smartphones, laptops, and televisions on Thursday evening to see if 'sloppy joe' 81-year-old President Joe Biden can coherently put together more than two sentences (even with a teleprompter) as he gives his third State of the Union in front of a divided Congress. 

President Biden will speak on various topics to convince voters why he shouldn't be sent to a retirement home.

According to CNN sources, here are some of the topics Biden will discuss tonight:

  • Economic issues: Biden and his team have been drafting a speech heavy on economic populism, aides said, with calls for higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy – an attempt to draw a sharp contrast with Republicans and their likely presidential nominee, Donald Trump.

  • Health care expenses: Biden will also push for lowering health care costs and discuss his efforts to go after drug manufacturers to lower the cost of prescription medications — all issues his advisers believe can help buoy what have been sagging economic approval ratings.

  • Israel's war with Hamas: Also looming large over Biden's primetime address is the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has consumed much of the president's time and attention over the past few months. The president's top national security advisers have been working around the clock to try to finalize a ceasefire-hostages release deal by Ramadan, the Muslim holy month that begins next week.

  • An argument for reelection: Aides view Thursday's speech as a critical opportunity for the president to tout his accomplishments in office and lay out his plans for another four years in the nation's top job. Even though viewership has declined over the years, the yearly speech reliably draws tens of millions of households.

Sources provided more color on Biden's SOTU address: 

The speech is expected to be heavy on economic populism. The president will talk about raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. He'll highlight efforts to cut costs for the American people, including pushing Congress to help make prescription drugs more affordable.

Biden will talk about the need to preserve democracy and freedom, a cornerstone of his re-election bid. That includes protecting and bolstering reproductive rights, an issue Democrats believe will energize voters in November. Biden is also expected to promote his unity agenda, a key feature of each of his addresses to Congress while in office.

Biden is also expected to give remarks on border security while the invasion of illegals has become one of the most heated topics among American voters. A majority of voters are frustrated with radical progressives in the White House facilitating the illegal migrant invasion. 

It is probable that the president will attribute the failure of the Senate border bill to the Republicans, a claim many voters view as unfounded. This is because the White House has the option to issue an executive order to restore border security, yet opts not to do so

Maybe this is why? 

While Biden addresses the nation, the Biden administration will be armed with a social media team to pump propaganda to at least 100 million Americans. 

"The White House hosted about 70 creators, digital publishers, and influencers across three separate events" on Wednesday and Thursday, a White House official told CNN. 

Not a very capable social media team... 

The administration's move to ramp up social media operations comes as users on X are mostly free from government censorship with Elon Musk at the helm. This infuriates Democrats, who can no longer censor their political enemies on X. 

Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers tell Axios that the president's SOTU performance will be critical as he tries to dispel voter concerns about his elderly age. The address reached as many as 27 million people in 2023. 

"We are all nervous," said one House Democrat, citing concerns about the president's "ability to speak without blowing things."

The SOTU address comes as Biden's polling data is in the dumps. 

BetOnline has created several money-making opportunities for gamblers tonight, such as betting on what word Biden mentions the most. 

As well as...

We will update you when Tucker Carlson's live feed of SOTU is published. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 07:44

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