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Illiquid supply ‘going up relentlessly’ — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

It may have dropped to six-month lows, but Bitcoin is still the subject of an increasing supply squeeze.
Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the final week of January in a place no one wanted but many warned about — a 50% drawdown from all-time.

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It may have dropped to six-month lows, but Bitcoin is still the subject of an increasing supply squeeze.

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the final week of January in a place no one wanted but many warned about — a 50% drawdown from all-time highs.

A flight to $34,000 means that BTC/USD is now down by half in just two months, and perhaps naturally, concerns are that the losses could continue.

With $30,000 so far unchallenged, Bitcoin remains slightly above the trough of its dip from $58,000 to $29,000 last summer.

With macro markets facing a tough time of their own thanks to rapidly-changing Federal Reserve policy, crypto holders will be eyeing their coins’ correlation to traditional assets going forward. Can Bitcoin break the trend?

So far, there are few signs that a significant rebound is on the cards, but below the headlines, not all is as it seems when it comes to Bitcoin’s strength.

Cointelegraph presents a look at five areas worth taking note of this week when assessing what could be next for BTC price action.

Bitcoin nears a “generational bottom”

Bitcoin bears took no notice of out-of-hours trading on Wall Street with the weekend ushering in a new round of losses.

From $39,000 to current lows of $34,000, BTC showed no mercy as liquidations mounted and sentiment took a fresh beating.

Now, traders are naturally eyeing a test of $30,000 as a more definitive representation of how Bitcoin is likely to fare in the short to mid-term.

Other estimates for where some relief may occur previously lay at $33,000 and $31,500, these likewise yet to be reached.

Analyzing various aspects of the on-chain situation, Dylan LeClair, senior analyst at UTXO Management, highlighted Bitcoin’s current cost basis as a potential clue for what he calls a “generational bottom.”

Cost basis refers to the aggregate price at which bitcoins from various cohorts of investors were last moved. The calculation, when combined with other data, can give an insight into where a Bitcoin bear phase is likely to bottom out.

Currently, the network cost basis is $24,000. The ratio of cost basis to price, known as the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, likewise has further room to fall before putting in a classic floor signal of its own.

Closer to home and a familiar target for BTC/USD is emerging in the form of a CME futures gap.

While a wick to just above $36,000 on Friday spoiled the opportunity for Bitcoin to reclaim levels closer to $40,000 as part of a “gap fill,” a lower gap from July remains at around $32,000.

“The actual price action will happen at the start of the new week, when futures open and CME starts to trade,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe forecast.

CME Bitcoin futures 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

Futures “gaps” refer to the empty space on CME Group’s futures chart between the end of trading on Friday and the start on the following Monday. If spot price moves in the intervening period, it has a habit of returning to “fill in” the gap, this often occurs within days or even hours.

Spotlight on RSI

Over the weekend, Cointelegraph reported on Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index (RSI) metric nearing its lowest levels since the coronavirus crash of March 2020.

Well below even its classic “oversold” zone, RSI is now becoming one of the most convincing signals for analysts keen to put faith in a market rebound.

Not just daily, but weekly RSI is now de facto back where it dipped to almost two years ago. Thereafter, those who followed it profited big, as the next year saw practically unbridled BTC price gains.

RSI refers to how overbought or oversold an asset is at a given price point, and the current low readings thus lend weight to the idea that $35,000 does not accurately reflect Bitcoin’s value.

For popular Twitter trader and analyst TechDev, the numbers stack up, with RSI on the weekly chart within a hair of classic reversal zones from earlier in Bitcoin’s history.

“Monthly RSI approaching levels that have been historically some of the best buying opportunities in its entire history,” fellow analyst Matthew Hyland added alongside a chart of his own.

Bitcoin monthly RSI vs. BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/ Twitter

On both higher and lower timeframes, Bitcoin RSI is therefore hinting that current price levels are unsustainable.

Miners hold firm… so far

Another phenomenon which could be subtly flagging $35,000 Bitcoin as a red herring is that of miner selling — or lack of it.

At 50% below all-time highs, BTC/USD is now within major estimates of global production costs for mining a single bitcoin.

These range from around $34,000, as Cointelegraph reported, to $38,000, according to recent estimates, including that from crypto merchant bank Galaxy Digital.

Looking at data covering movements from mining pools and known miner wallets, however, it appears that despite presumably low or even negative profit margins, miners are in no mood to sell their BTC holdings.

A significant accumulation trend which began last year thus shows no sign of reversing — yet.

Nonetheless, not everyone is convinced that the status quo can weather the storm if spot price action continues to decline.

“The worst dumps #Bitcoin ever had were due to miners capitulation (Dec 2018, Mar 2020), when BTC fell below production costs, it is at risk for miner capitulation,” popular Twitter account Venturefounder reiterated over the weekend.

“BTC was at risk for miner capitulation at $30k in June and at risk now again at $34k.”

He included the latest incarnation of the Bitcoin production cost indicator from Charles Edwards, CEO of crypto investment firm Capriole.

Bitcoin production cost vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Venturefounder/ Twitter

Illiquid supply keeps growing

While concerns focus on whether or not certain cohorts of Bitcoin market participants will sell and at what price, it pays to zoom out, one analyst says.

Analyzing the overall BTC supply at the weekend, Lex Moskovski, CIO of Moskovski Capital, drew attention to the ongoing trend of coins becoming ever more inaccessible.

Spot price moves aside, more and more of the supply is being siphoned off to cold storage, accompanying data from Glassnode shows.

In January, despite the downtrend, the conversion of Bitcoin to illiquid actually accelerated, underscoring the desire from investors to buy at price levels seen over recent weeks. Selling, it would seem, is the last thing on their minds.

"Panic if you feel like it but Bitcoin illiquid supply is going up relentlessly," Moskovski forecast.

Bitcoin illiquid supply vs. BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Lex Moskovski/ Twitter

At the start of this month, Glassnode estimated that 76% of the supply was already illiquid. In December, approximately 100,000 BTC was becoming illiquid each month, additional findings claimed.

"The only thing that is noise is the summer dip," Moskovski added about the supply upheaval which followed last May's miner relocation event.

Sentiment index a hair from historic lows

With all the downside, it is likely unsurprising that Bitcoin market sentiment is not performing well.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, LUNA, ATOM, ACH*, FTM

According to the latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, "extreme fear" just keeps getting worse in line with spot price performance.

Earlier in the month, Cointelegraph reported on the Index reaching lows seen only a handful of times in history, and with the weekend seeing a return to those levels, the doom being felt by the average market participant is becoming all the more clear.

Current levels of around 10/100 have in the past proven to be excellent buying points based on sentiment alone, with Bitcoin settling there in both March 2020 and the pit of its 2018 bear market. 

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024
A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to star…

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March 13, 2024

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024

A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s February 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.3% year-over-year in February. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this February as newly listed homes were 11.3% above last year’s levels. This marked the fourth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.
Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will have to wait for the March and April data to see how close new listings are to normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7% range.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.
There is much more in the article.

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RFK Jr. Reveals Vice President Contenders

RFK Jr. Reveals Vice President Contenders

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times,

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and former…

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March 13, 2024

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RFK Jr. Reveals Vice President Contenders

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times,

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and former Minnesota governor and professional wrestler Jesse Ventura are among the potential running mates for independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the New York Times reported on March 12.

Citing “two people familiar with the discussions,” the New York Times wrote that Mr. Kennedy “recently approached” Mr. Rodgers and Mr. Ventura about the vice president’s role, “and both have welcomed the overtures.”

Mr. Kennedy has talked to Mr. Rodgers “pretty continuously” over the last month, according to the story. The candidate has kept in touch with Mr. Ventura since the former governor introduced him at a February voter rally in Tucson, Arizona.

Stefanie Spear, who is the campaign press secretary, told The Epoch Times on March 12 that “Mr. Kennedy did share with the New York Times that he’s considering Aaron Rodgers and Jesse Ventura as running mates along with others on a short list.”

Ms. Spear added that Mr. Kennedy will name his running mate in the upcoming weeks.

Former Democrat presidential candidates Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard declined the opportunity to join Mr. Kennedy’s ticket, according to the New York Times.

Mr. Kennedy has also reportedly talked to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) about becoming his running mate.

Last week, Mr. Kennedy endorsed Mr. Paul to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as the Senate Minority Leader after Mr. McConnell announced he would step down from the post at the end of the year.

CNN reported early on March 13 that Mr. Kennedy’s shortlist also includes motivational speaker Tony Robbins, Discovery Channel Host Mike Rowe, and civil rights attorney Tricia Lindsay. The Washington Post included the aforementioned names plus former Republican Massachusetts senator and U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, Scott Brown.

In April 2023, Mr. Kennedy entered the Democrat presidential primary to challenge President Joe Biden for the party’s 2024 nomination. Claiming that the Democrat National Committee was “rigging the primary” to stop candidates from opposing President Biden, Mr. Kennedy said last October that he would run as an independent.

This year, Mr. Kennedy’s campaign has shifted its focus to ballot access. He currently has qualified for the ballot as an independent in New Hampshire, Utah, and Nevada.

Mr. Kennedy also qualified for the ballot in Hawaii under the “We the People” party.

In January, Mr. Kennedy’s campaign said it had filed paperwork in six states to create a political party. The move was made to get his name on the ballots with fewer voter signatures than those states require for candidates not affiliated with a party.

The “We the People” party was established in five states: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi, and North Carolina. The “Texas Independent Party” was also formed.

A statement by Mr. Kennedy’s campaign reported that filing for political party status in the six states reduced the number of signatures required for him to gain ballot access by about 330,000.

Ballot access guidelines have created a sense of urgency to name a running mate. More than 20 states require independent and third-party candidates to have a vice presidential pick before collecting and submitting signatures.

Like Mr. Kennedy, Mr. Ventura is an outspoken critic of COVID-19 vaccine mandates and safety.

Mr. Ventura, 72, gained acclaim in the 1970s and 1980s as a professional wrestler known as Jesse “the Body” Ventura. He appeared in movies and television shows before entering the Minnesota gubernatorial race as a Reform Party headliner. He was a longshot candidate but prevailed and served one term.

Former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura in Washington on Oct. 4, 2013. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

In an interview on a YouTube podcast last December, Mr. Ventura was asked if he would accept an offer to run on Mr. Kennedy’s ticket.

“I would give it serious consideration. I won’t tell you yes or no. It will depend on my personal life. Would I want to commit myself at 72 for one year of hell (campaigning) and then four years (in office)?” Mr. Ventura said with a grin.

Mr. Rodgers, who spent his entire career as a quarterback for the Green Bay Packers before joining the New York Jets last season, remains under contract with the Jets. He has not publicly commented about joining Mr. Kennedy’s ticket, but the four-time NFL MVP endorsed him earlier this year and has stumped for him on podcasts.

The 40-year-old Rodgers is still under contract with the Jets after tearing his Achilles tendon in the 2023 season opener and being sidelined the rest of the year. The Jets are owned by Woody Johnson, a prominent donor to former President Donald Trump who served as U.S. Ambassador to Britain under President Trump.

Since the COVID-19 vaccine was introduced, Mr. Rodgers has been outspoken about health issues that can result from taking the shot. He told podcaster Joe Rogan that he has lost friends and sponsorship deals because of his decision not to get vaccinated.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets talks to reporters after training camp at Atlantic Health Jets Training Center in Florham Park, N.J., on July 26, 2023. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Earlier this year, Mr. Rodgers challenged Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Dr. Anthony Fauci to a debate.

Mr. Rodgers referred to Mr. Kelce, who signed an endorsement deal with vaccine manufacturer Pfizer, as “Mr. Pfizer.”

Dr. Fauci served as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases from 1984 to 2022 and was chief medical adviser to the president from 2021 to 2022.

When Mr. Kennedy announces his running mate, it will mark another challenge met to help gain ballot access.

“In some states, the signature gathering window is not open. New York is one of those and is one of the most difficult with ballot access requirements,” Ms. Spear told The Epoch Times.

“We need our VP pick and our electors, and we have to gather 45,000 valid signatures. That means we will collect 72,000 since we have a 60 percent buffer in every state,” she added.

The window for gathering signatures in New York opens on April 16 and closes on May 28, Ms. Spear noted.

“Mississippi, North Carolina, and Oklahoma are the next three states we will most likely check off our list,” Ms. Spear added. “We are confident that Mr. Kennedy will be on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We have a strategist, petitioners, attorneys, and the overall momentum of the campaign.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 15:45

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Pharma industry reputation remains steady at a ‘new normal’ after Covid, Harris Poll finds

The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45%…

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March 13, 2024

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The pharma industry is hanging on to reputation gains notched during the Covid-19 pandemic. Positive perception of the pharma industry is steady at 45% of US respondents in 2023, according to the latest Harris Poll data. That’s exactly the same as the previous year.

Pharma’s highest point was in February 2021 — as Covid vaccines began to roll out — with a 62% positive US perception, and helping the industry land at an average 55% positive sentiment at the end of the year in Harris’ 2021 annual assessment of industries. The pharma industry’s reputation hit its most recent low at 32% in 2019, but it had hovered around 30% for more than a decade prior.

Rob Jekielek

“Pharma has sustained a lot of the gains, now basically one and half times higher than pre-Covid,” said Harris Poll managing director Rob Jekielek. “There is a question mark around how sustained it will be, but right now it feels like a new normal.”

The Harris survey spans 11 global markets and covers 13 industries. Pharma perception is even better abroad, with an average 58% of respondents notching favorable sentiments in 2023, just a slight slip from 60% in each of the two previous years.

Pharma’s solid global reputation puts it in the middle of the pack among international industries, ranking higher than government at 37% positive, insurance at 48%, financial services at 51% and health insurance at 52%. Pharma ranks just behind automotive (62%), manufacturing (63%) and consumer products (63%), although it lags behind leading industries like tech at 75% positive in the first spot, followed by grocery at 67%.

The bright spotlight on the pharma industry during Covid vaccine and drug development boosted its reputation, but Jekielek said there’s maybe an argument to be made that pharma is continuing to develop innovative drugs outside that spotlight.

“When you look at pharma reputation during Covid, you have clear sense of a very dynamic industry working very quickly and getting therapies and products to market. If you’re looking at things happening now, you could argue that pharma still probably doesn’t get enough credit for its advances, for example, in oncology treatments,” he said.

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