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ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: “Home Prices Set Yet Another Record in August”

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: “Home Prices Set Yet Another Record in August”
A brief excerpt: Some interesting data on mortgage rates. Note the higher mortgage rates for the 2023 vintage – …



Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Set Yet Another Record in August"

A brief excerpt:
Some interesting data on mortgage rates. Note the higher mortgage rates for the 2023 vintage - still a small portion of the overall market. A large portion of active mortgages are in the 2020-2022 vintages.

• Given all the talk about near-term prepayment risk – and quick-turn refinance incentive – among recent originations, we thought it prudent to see how much refinance volume may make its way into the market should 30-year rates begin to ease

• As loans seasoned between two and ten years tend to have rates lower than 5%, we explore the distribution of current interest rates among recent originations to help quantify where any pockets of opportunity may exist

• Mortgages originated over the past 18 months are evenly distributed across rate bands ranging from the mid-3% range up through the high 6% range, meaning that rate/term refinance volumes would return gradually should rates improve

Relatively few loans (~600K as of August month end) have interest rates at or above 7%, such that it would take rates markedly lower than they are today to spur any meaningful refinance incentive

• While 600K may sound significant, historically an average month yields 430K refinances, if every homeowner with a first lien rate of 7% or higher were to refinance it would only result in 1.5 months of ‘normal’ volume

• Another 1.9M loans have rates between 6% and 7%, which would produce moderate opportunity, but rates would need to come down to the mid- to low-5% range to put all of those borrowers in the money, and even that would only be enough for a few months of sustained volume
emphasis added
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BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF mysteriously disappears — then reappears — on DTCC site

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF listing staged a sudden reappearance on the DTCC’s website after disappearing for a few hours.
The ticker…



BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF listing staged a sudden reappearance on the DTCC’s website after disappearing for a few hours.

The ticker for BlackRock's spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) IBTC has reappeared on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation’s (DTCC) website after disappearing for a few hours.

The price of Bitcoin surged to new yearly highs following the Oct. 23 surprise appearance of IBTC on the website with markets frenzied over the sign of a potential soon-to-come spot ETF approval.

When the ticker quietly disappeared from the site a few hours later, Bitcoin‘s price slumped nearly 3%, indicating that much of the trading activity seems to be hinged on watching ETF-related developments.

BlackRock’s iShares IBTC ETF is back on the DTCC's site. Source: DTCC

Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out the drama around the IBTC listing seemed to be responsible for briefly crashing the DTCC website.

The DTCC doesn’t typically witness this level of attention, Balchunas explained — which “speaks to the uniqueness and intensity of this entire saga.”

Related: BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF now listed on Nasdaq trade clearing firm — Bloomberg analyst

Upon IBTC’s re-listing, one X (Twitter) user highlighted that the previous listing showed a “Y” under the “create/redeem” column while the new listing had an “N.”

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart responded to the query saying he believes it indicates BlackRock is “getting everything ready to launch if and when they get an SEC approval.”

“The ‘N’ just means it’s not open for create redeem because it’s not live yet,” Seyffart added.

“It is standard practice for DTCC to add securities to the NSCC security eligibility file in preparation for the launch of a new ETF to the market,” a DTCC spokesperson said in a statement. “Appearing on the list is not indicative of an outcome for any outstanding regulatory or other approval processes."

Bitcoin has held steady following IBTC’s reappearance and is up 0.15% in the last hour according to CoinMarketCap data.

Bitcoin’s price held firm following IBTC’s reappearance — up 0.15% in the last hour. Source: CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin is trading at $33,940 marking a 19.1% gain over the past week. 

Magazine: Blockchain detectives — Mt. Gox collapse saw birth of Chainalysis

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UAW workers play hardball with General Motors

Striking United Auto Workers have upped the ante in the battle with GM over wages.



After reporting $3.5 billion in third-quarter profits, General Motors  (GM) - Get Free Report suffered yet another significant blow from striking United Auto Workers on Oct. 24. The union's latest decision is a bold move designed to force management to agree to a slate of terms, including higher wages, more retirement money, and additional time off.

GM workers with the UAW Local 2250 Union strike outside the General Motors Wentzville Assembly Plant on Sept. 15 in Wentzville, Mo. (Photo by Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images)

Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images

General Motors profits put it on the hot seat

General Motors argues UAW workers' wage demands would crimp its ability to invest in necessary technology, putting it at risk of losing market share to non-union competitors vying for a share of the emerging electric vehicle market.

Electric vehicle sales growth is far outpacing internal combustion engine (ICE) growth, a trend that's unlikely to change. In Q3, Cox Automotive's Kelley Blue Book reports electric vehicle sales in the U.S. skyrocketed 50%, increasing EV's share of total vehicle sales to 8%. 

Related: Former Ford CEO has a blunt warning for UAW union strikers

The stakes are undeniably high. 

General Motors' EV market share slipped against key rivals last quarter, a warning sign that it's already struggling to outmaneuver other carmakers. Wall Street analysts estimate EV sales will comprise 40% of all vehicles sold in America in 2030.

General Motors must spend big money if it hopes to remain the nation's biggest automaker. However, claims General Motors can't afford to meet striking workers' demands have fallen flat with workers in the wake of record profitability. 

More Business of EVs:

The company's third-quarter sales exceeded $44 billion, up 5% from one year ago, and earnings per share totaled $2.28 per share, up slightly from last year. The company has pocketed about $10 billion in profits through the first nine months of this year.

UAW workers target a crucial source of  General Motors' profit

Given General Motors' record earnings and stalled contract negotiations, the union has turned its attention to General Motors' biggest cash cow. 

Workers walked off the assembly line at Arlington Assembly on Oct. 24, halting production of the highly profitable Chevy Tahoe, Chevy Suburban, GMC Yukon, and Cadillac Escalade, at General Motors' largest plant.

“Another record quarter, another record year. As we’ve said for months: record profits equal record contracts,” said UAW President Shawn Fain. “It’s time GM workers, and the whole working class, get their fair share.”

So far, General Motors has offered striking workers less than Ford Motors  (F) - Get Free Report,  

According to a UAW statement, Ford's deal includes a better path to top wages, more retirement money, and a more compelling cost-of-living plan to account for annual inflation than General Motors' offer.

Initially, union workers demanded a 40% pay increase, a return to pensions, a 32-hour workweek, cost-of-living increases, a faster pathway to top wages, and other perks.

They rejected a General Motors offer earlier this month that included a 20% pay increase, a reinstatement of COLA inflation adjustments for top-wage tier workers in year two, reducing how long it takes to reach its top wage tier to four years, an increase in temporary worker pay to $20 per hour, and a boost to 401(k) retirement contributions to 8% from 6.4%.

The decision to expand the strike to Arlington Assembly increased the number of workers participating in its stand-up strike against General Motors, Ford Motors, and Stellantis to 45,000 across eight plants and 38 parts distribution centers. 

Overall, the UAW boasts nearly 150,000 members.

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Key Market Relationships for the Next Big Move

First off, we are heading out of town to New York where I will be visiting in studio several media channels and hosts.Then, we are off to Orlando for the…



First off, we are heading out of town to New York where I will be visiting in studio several media channels and hosts.

Then, we are off to Orlando for the MoneyShow.

On November 1st, Keith and I go on vacation until the middle of the month.

This is the last Daily I will be writing for a while.

However, I will have several clips in the next few days to share, and Geoff Bysshe will occasionally write the Daily in my absence.

That said, today, I began the day with the Benzinga Market Prep Show.

I am featuring this today as content because I hope it helps you look at the market objectively.

We did not discuss inflation, which, as you are aware, I believe can go hyper as geopolitical stress, social unrest, strikes for higher wages, and mother nature could each, or worse, all, kick into gear.

We discussed bonds, small caps, commercial real estate, retail, and a couple of stocks.

In that discussion, and on the heels of Bill Ackman's statements along with our technical indicators, we spell out the exact relationships to watch.

Monday's Daily explained how much long bonds factor into the equity (and commodity) equation.

We also cover small caps and the monthly charts, along with SPY, QQQ, Transports (IYT), and Retail (XRT).

If the decades have taught me anything, it's that the simpler you can make the definitions, the better the comprehension.

It is with that in mind that we show you how easy it will be in just a short time to see where this market heads next.

Benzina Pre-Market Prep

In addition to the analysis, Joel and I talk about the floor days and how we figured out momentum with our senses!

Plus, we go over a couple of picks.

Thank you all for your continued readership and support.

I hope you have many profitable weeks.

Happy Trading.

This is for educational purposes only. Trading comes with risk.

If you find it difficult to execute the MarketGauge strategies or would like to explore how we can do it for you, please email Ben Scheibe at, our Head of Institutional Sales. Cell: 612-518-2482.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

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"I grew my money tree and so can you!" - Mish Schneider

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish covers the bond rally and how the consumer could save the day in this video.

Hear Mish's thoughts on earnings, the macro environment, and her three stock picks on Bloomberg BNN.

Ever thought of owning commodities? Hear what Mish says about the key commodities you should consider in this video.

Mish participates in Crypto Town Hall X Space. You can sign in to your X account and watch it here.

In this video, Mish talks about trading Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) on Business First AM.

Mish and Dale Pinkert discuss the disconnect between news and markets-and how to best invest right now in this video from ForexAnalytix's pre-market show.

In this video from CMC Markets, Mish shares her short-term forecast for USD/JPY and popular commodity instruments ahead of the US PPI announcement and September's Fed meeting minutes, with recent dovish comments from Fed officials suggesting a potential shift in the committee's policies.

Mish joins Business First AM to discuss the market reaction to the war in Gaza in this video.

Mish covers bonds, small caps, transports and commodities-dues for the next moves in this video from Yahoo! Finance.

In this video from Real Vision, Mish joins Maggie Lake to share what her framework suggests about junk bonds and investment-grade bonds, what she's watching in commodity markets, and how to structure a portfolio to navigate both bull and bear markets.

Coming Up:

October 26: Cheddar TV on the NYSE

October 27: Live in-studio with Charles Payne, Fox Business

October 27: Live in-studio with Yahoo Finance!

October 27: Recorded in-studio with Investor's Business Daily

October 29-31: The Money Show

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets

November 1–13 VACATION

ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY): 417–420 support
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 now in the rearview mirror
  • Dow (DIA): 332 pivotal
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 351 recent low and support
  • Regional Banks (KRE): 35 next support
  • Semiconductors (SMH): 140 support.
  • Transportation (IYT): 225 pivotal
  • Biotechnology (IBB): 120 pivotal
  • Retail (XRT): 57 key support still

Mish Schneider

Director of Trading Research and Education

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