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How the crypto workforce changed in the pandemic

The pandemic has put hundreds of thousands of businesses out of action, saw others fold and decimated great swathes of the economy.But, crypto thrived in this distributed environment. As the world clamped down and everyone was forced to decentralize,…

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The pandemic has put hundreds of thousands of businesses out of action, saw others fold and decimated great swathes of the economy.

But, crypto thrived in this distributed environment. As the world clamped down and everyone was forced to decentralize, the crypto world shone.

Perhaps crypto, born of a crisis, is most at home in one. Working from home is where we all have spent most of this crisis.

Gaurang Tovekar is the CEO and co-founder at Indorse, a blockchain-powered enterprise SaaS platform. He says the company was perfectly placed to ride out the upheaval as the entire team has never been in the same physical location since the companys inception.

Although the pandemic accelerated remote work and the adoption of decentralization in the workforce globally on an unprecedented scale, it was already a norm within the crypto industry well before the pandemic struck.

He points out that although the company once had offices in Singapore and London, hed already swapped them out for hot desks in co-working spaces before the pandemic.

That way, those of us who want to meet up once or twice a week and bond socially can still do so in the office while working from home the majority of the time.

We have adapted our work styles and got used to this new normal in the last year and a half. I am sure that we as a company will not lease swanky office spaces any time soon, but rather provide better flexibility and other perks that make working from home more pleasurable for our team, he concludes.

 

 

 

Office as a luxury?

Stefan Rust, the former CEO of Bitcoin.com and now CEO and co-founder of Sonic Capital, is taking a different approach to remote working. Hes just signed a lease on a swanky office in Hong Kong but at a substantial discount. He intends to use this real estate luxury as a perk to benefit his mostly remote workforce.

I plan on creating large open plan spaces with sofas, TVs, screens and hot desks. I want people to be able to come in and relax, enjoy time with their co-workers, conduct meetings or just chill. The new office has to be a place where people want to come its about choice, explains Rust.

So, perhaps as pandemic restrictions wind back, an office will be seen as a luxury perk for tech and crypto companies, a central clubhouse that people use how and when they want.

Ramadan Ameen, CFO for privacy startup Panther Protocol, reflects that his international team was put in place during the pandemic in Jan. 2021. Not only has his team never all been in the one location, but the majority of the twenty staff also have never met each other in person. For Ameen, a team meetup and bonding session are significantly ahead of company offices, for now.

The co-founders have met, but the team is spread out across North and South America, Asia and Europe. We are looking forward to a team meetup in the fall, depending on Covid restrictions. Right now, our choices are limited, so we are still deciding among a few central locations.

 

 

 

 

Zoom zoom

For the Unique.network, a next-generation NFT chain for Polkadot and Kusama ecosystems, the lockdown was very positive. CEO Alex Mitrovic says his dispersed team put their collective heads down and just worked on the project. They entered a major Hackathon on Kusama to build a blockchain back in January 2020 and won. That set them up for earning more Web 3.0 Foundation grants before being accepted into the accelerator program run by Jamie Burke, CEO of Outlier Ventures, at the start of this year.

Having an internationally dispersed team is normal for me, lockdown just made it tighter, he says. People, often limited to restricted locations, wanted to connect and so we made it work.

The fact that, as lockdown proceeded, we re-entered a bull run didnt hurt at all.

One thing that unites remote workers in crypto is their passion and commitment to the industry Mitrovich says.

To work remotely often requires a degree of self-motivation and discipline. These are the very hallmarks of people in this space. And everyone gets the decentralized approach it is part of the territory.

Mitrovich says that remote work also offers a world of options for skilled workers in the blockchain sector.

People have more choices, he says. If they dont like someone or something, they can leave and move on. They might be restricted in geography but not in choices. I like to quote Jamie when he says Outliers operates a no jerk policy which cracks me up but which is also very cool.

I see my team blossoming in this lockdown. They are more honest about what they can and cannot do. And its my role as CEO to support them. No more top-down management, its all about consensus.

 

 

 

 

The etiquette of Zoom

Mitrovich feels that since the entire world first went into lockdown, people have been looking for ways to connect. Moreover, it had the feeling of democratizing the new workplace the home since few were still working out of boardrooms and offices.

It didnt matter where you were, everyone was reduced to a zoom screen, he says.

Interestingly, he says fewer people are late for meetings anymore.

Ive done 1000s of video calls and everyone turns up on time its like a mark of respect. No one has to travel of course and so its easier to be punctual, he says.

Cultural differences in approaches to video calls have become apparent as Mitrovich raises funds and speaks with investors across Asia.

I have never asked but Asian people tend to keep their videos off, whereas Western people leave theirs on. Maybe its because accessing videos from China for example requires a VPN or maybe its a question of poor connections.

 

 

 

 

Other leaders have actually developed policies on the video on and off question, believing its a way for employees to bond and maintain normal social interactions. Marie Tatibouet, CMO at the crypto exchange Gate.io is quite forceful on this point:

In a company as big as ours, interdepartmental synergy could be a challenge if you are not going to the office and seeing each other every day, she says. To mitigate this, we use online workspaces such as Notion so that everyone knows what everyone else is working on.

We also have a weekly meeting which is half official and half casual, with mandatory Video on. This way everyone knows what the team members look like and can interact with each other and share interesting stories from the market and their daily lives.

Family time

Crypto means juggling different jobs. It is not nine to five, the roles are fluid and people are expected to run with different tasks as demand dictates. There is rarely a single, static job description. Crypto plus remote offers flexibility, especially where families are involved.

Khalid Howladar is head credit & Sukuk advisery at R.J. Fleming & Co, a private bank where he specializes in Islamic Finance. Based in Dubai, he is currently migrating over to chair a startup DeFi protocol and says he has enjoyed working remotely.

My wife and I are lucky in that our children are so young that homeschooling is not a challenge, but I have enjoyed immensely the extra time I can spend with the kids, he says. At the office, I wouldn’t be good at taking breaks but now I take 15 to 30 minutes in the day to hang out.

He also recognizes that as he moves into crypto, he will need to wear many hats. Remote working suits this new juggling act for work.

Also, as someone who tends to work late, I can put my son to bed and get back to work. For my wife having someone around at home for those 10/15 mins you might need to do something or take a break is invaluable.

Retraining laid-off workers

Swathes of less well-paid workers lost their jobs as businesses went under during lockdowns. Retraining for the crypto and blockchain sector may provide them with a way to get back on their feet, especially if they live in an expensive part of the world. After all, the sector has booming demands for skilled personnel, with blockchain job vacancies doubling in recent months. The fact that they can usually work from anywhere opens up a world of employment possibilities.

Educator and executive director of The Blockchain Academy Ryan Williams works with universities and corporates to provide quality blockchain training and accreditation. He has found a home for his skilled courses in Hawaii.

Hawaii is a beautiful spot but its also very expensive to live there. And with the lockdown, the hospitality sector has been slammed. Crypto is one method to get past this issue and indeed provide some long-term employment certainty and income equality.

The Hawaii government had been looking for ways to upskill the local population and set up the Hawaiian Technology Development Corporation or the HTDC. They contacted The Blockchain Academy and agreed to partner with them to provide foundation courses in blockchain.

 

 

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The DAO or Decentralized Autonomous Organization

ADecentralized Autonomous Organization, or a DAO, is another opportunity that can be seized by anyone, anywhere with the requisite skills. A DAO is when a globally distributed community of contributors owns the overarching entity as a cooperative venture with no central leadership. Anyone with a better idea for how to achieve something can join and propose it as a solution, which can supercharge innovation. Decisions get made from the bottom-up (at least in theory), governed by a communityand organized around a specific set of rules enforced on a blockchain. Popularized by blockchain DAOs in DeFi, decisions are made via proposals that the group votes on during a specified period.

Williams is quietly optimistic about the possibilities, and if DAOs fulfill their promises.

Remote may mean we need to learn to be empathetic on purpose, but the inbuilt consensus mechanisms from a DAO means firstly, people have a vested interest in the organization and secondly, they have a say in the culture. Its not from the top down.

 

 

 

 

Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks and a crypto enthusiast, totally agrees.

The benefits from a DAO are trickle up. Trickle down does not reflect how a DAO operates and thats the point.Participants get to control what happens and what doesnt happen, he says. The tokenomics are clearly stated so everyone knows who benefits, how and why. If run successfully, with appropriate tokenomics, the benefit can accrue from the bottom up. Everyone who works there can be given tokens so they can participate in the DAO.

Any business that is community driven would benefit the most from being a DAO. It could be a company that offers healthcare services, it could be a local savings and loan. The value comes from the fact that the business can benefit from integration of the community.

Rust is also experimenting with a DAO as part of his sustainable crypto investing business in Hong Kong.

I have set up a number of entities and registered them as businesses in different jurisdictions, depending on their requirements. However, one business division, Sonto, will be a pure DAO. It will not be incorporated in any jurisdiction but will operate as a truly decentralized entity.

This decentralized thinking will extend to all the remote employees in terms of remuneration.

If half the employees are remote and decentralized, then I am not best placed to see how they are performing. In each case, the allocations will come from team leads not a centralized authority. That makes much more sense to me, adds Rust.

However, while a fan, Cuban is less than optimistic of the granted success of DAOs, especially the early ones.

I also want to make the point that I think many of the early DAOs could fail, he says, stating the lack of experience and possible unequal distribution of participation as reasons.

Some holders are very involved and often try to work to the exclusion of others. The politics of participation in DAOs will also come into play. The dynamics of how people cooperate will be challenging, again, until there is a history of what works and what doesnt work for new entrants to learn from, he concludes.

 

 

 

 

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Chronic stress and inflammation linked to societal and environmental impacts in new study

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors…

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From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors can cause chronic inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our thinking and behavior.   

Credit: Image: Vodovotz et al/Frontiers

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors can cause chronic inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our thinking and behavior.   

A new hypothesis published in Frontiers in Science suggests the negative impacts may extend far further.   

“We propose that stress, inflammation, and consequently impaired cognition in individuals can scale up to communities and populations,” explained lead author Prof Yoram Vodovotz of the University of Pittsburgh, USA.

“This could affect the decision-making and behavior of entire societies, impair our cognitive ability to address complex issues like climate change, social unrest, and infectious disease – and ultimately lead to a self-sustaining cycle of societal dysfunction and environmental degradation,” he added.

Bodily inflammation ‘mapped’ in the brain  

One central premise to the hypothesis is an association between chronic inflammation and cognitive dysfunction.  

“The cause of this well-known phenomenon is not currently known,” said Vodovotz. “We propose a mechanism, which we call the ‘central inflammation map’.”    

The authors’ novel idea is that the brain creates its own copy of bodily inflammation. Normally, this inflammation map allows the brain to manage the inflammatory response and promote healing.   

When inflammation is high or chronic, however, the response goes awry and can damage healthy tissues and organs. The authors suggest the inflammation map could similarly harm the brain and impair cognition, emotion, and behavior.   

Accelerated spread of stress and inflammation online   

A second premise is the spread of chronic inflammation from individuals to populations.  

“While inflammation is not contagious per se, it could still spread via the transmission of stress among people,” explained Vodovotz.   

The authors further suggest that stress is being transmitted faster than ever before, through social media and other digital communications.  

“People are constantly bombarded with high levels of distressing information, be it the news, negative online comments, or a feeling of inadequacy when viewing social media feeds,” said Vodovotz. “We hypothesize that this new dimension of human experience, from which it is difficult to escape, is driving stress, chronic inflammation, and cognitive impairment across global societies.”   

Inflammation as a driver of social and planetary disruption  

These ideas shift our view of inflammation as a biological process restricted to an individual. Instead, the authors see it as a multiscale process linking molecular, cellular, and physiological interactions in each of us to altered decision-making and behavior in populations – and ultimately to large-scale societal and environmental impacts.  

“Stress-impaired judgment could explain the chaotic and counter-intuitive responses of large parts of the global population to stressful events such as climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic,” explained Vodovotz.  

“An inability to address these and other stressors may propagate a self-fulfilling sense of pervasive danger, causing further stress, inflammation, and impaired cognition in a runaway, positive feedback loop,” he added.  

The fact that current levels of global stress have not led to widespread societal disorder could indicate an equally strong stabilizing effect from “controllers” such as trust in laws, science, and multinational organizations like the United Nations.   

“However, societal norms and institutions are increasingly being questioned, at times rightly so as relics of a foregone era,” said Prof Paul Verschure of Radboud University, the Netherlands, and a co-author of the article. “The challenge today is how we can ward off a new adversarial era of instability due to global stress caused by a multi-scale combination of geopolitical fragmentation, conflicts, and ecological collapse amplified by existential angst, cognitive overload, and runaway disinformation.”    

Reducing social media exposure as part of the solution  

The authors developed a mathematical model to test their ideas and explore ways to reduce stress and build resilience.  

“Preliminary results highlight the need for interventions at multiple levels and scales,” commented co-author Prof Julia Arciero of Indiana University, USA.  

“While anti-inflammatory drugs are sometimes used to treat medical conditions associated with inflammation, we do not believe these are the whole answer for individuals,” said Dr David Katz, co-author and a specialist in preventive and lifestyle medicine based in the US. “Lifestyle changes such as healthy nutrition, exercise, and reducing exposure to stressful online content could also be important.”  

“The dawning new era of precision and personalized therapeutics could also offer enormous potential,” he added.  

At the societal level, the authors suggest creating calm public spaces and providing education on the norms and institutions that keep our societies stable and functioning.  

“While our ‘inflammation map’ hypothesis and corresponding mathematical model are a start, a coordinated and interdisciplinary research effort is needed to define interventions that would improve the lives of individuals and the resilience of communities to stress. We hope our article stimulates scientists around the world to take up this challenge,” Vodovotz concluded.  

The article is part of the Frontiers in Science multimedia article hub ‘A multiscale map of inflammatory stress’. The hub features a video, an explainer, a version of the article written for kids, and an editorial, viewpoints, and policy outlook from other eminent experts: Prof David Almeida (Penn State University, USA), Prof Pietro Ghezzi (University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy), and Dr Ioannis P Androulakis (Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, USA). 


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Acadia’s Nuplazid fails PhIII study due to higher-than-expected placebo effect

After years of trying to expand the market territory for Nuplazid, Acadia Pharmaceuticals might have hit a dead end, with a Phase III fail in schizophrenia…

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After years of trying to expand the market territory for Nuplazid, Acadia Pharmaceuticals might have hit a dead end, with a Phase III fail in schizophrenia due to the placebo arm performing better than expected.

Steve Davis

“We will continue to analyze these data with our scientific advisors, but we do not intend to conduct any further clinical trials with pimavanserin,” CEO Steve Davis said in a Monday press release. Acadia’s stock $ACAD dropped by 17.41% before the market opened Tuesday.

Pimavanserin, a serotonin inverse agonist and also a 5-HT2A receptor antagonist, is already in the market with the brand name Nuplazid for Parkinson’s disease psychosis. Efforts to expand into other indications such as Alzheimer’s-related psychosis and major depression have been unsuccessful, and previous trials in schizophrenia have yielded mixed data at best. Its February presentation does not list other pimavanserin studies in progress.

The Phase III ADVANCE-2 trial investigated 34 mg pimavanserin versus placebo in 454 patients who have negative symptoms of schizophrenia. The study used the negative symptom assessment-16 (NSA-16) total score as a primary endpoint and followed participants up to week 26. Study participants have control of positive symptoms due to antipsychotic therapies.

The company said that the change from baseline in this measure for the treatment arm was similar between the Phase II ADVANCE-1 study and ADVANCE-2 at -11.6 and -11.8, respectively. However, the placebo was higher in ADVANCE-2 at -11.1, when this was -8.5 in ADVANCE-1. The p-value in ADVANCE-2 was 0.4825.

In July last year, another Phase III schizophrenia trial — by Sumitomo and Otsuka — also reported negative results due to what the company noted as Covid-19 induced placebo effect.

According to Mizuho Securities analysts, ADVANCE-2 data were disappointing considering the company applied what it learned from ADVANCE-1, such as recruiting patients outside the US to alleviate a high placebo effect. The Phase III recruited participants in Argentina and Europe.

Analysts at Cowen added that the placebo effect has been a “notorious headwind” in US-based trials, which appears to “now extend” to ex-US studies. But they also noted ADVANCE-1 reported a “modest effect” from the drug anyway.

Nonetheless, pimavanserin’s safety profile in the late-stage study “was consistent with previous clinical trials,” with the drug having an adverse event rate of 30.4% versus 40.3% with placebo, the company said. Back in 2018, even with the FDA approval for Parkinson’s psychosis, there was an intense spotlight on Nuplazid’s safety profile.

Acadia previously aimed to get Nuplazid approved for Alzheimer’s-related psychosis but had many hurdles. The drug faced an adcomm in June 2022 that voted 9-3 noting that the drug is unlikely to be effective in this setting, culminating in a CRL a few months later.

As for the company’s next R&D milestones, Mizuho analysts said it won’t be anytime soon: There is the Phase III study for ACP-101 in Prader-Willi syndrome with data expected late next year and a Phase II trial for ACP-204 in Alzheimer’s disease psychosis with results anticipated in 2026.

Acadia collected $549.2 million in full-year 2023 revenues for Nuplazid, with $143.9 million in the fourth quarter.

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Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings

Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution…

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Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites.

“Such is unsurprising, given that retail investors often fall victim to the psychological behavior of the “fear of missing out.” The chart below shows the “dumb money index” versus the S&P 500. Once again, retail investors are very long equities relative to the institutional players ascribed to being the “smart money.””

“The difference between “smart” and “dumb money” investors shows that, more often than not, the “dumb money” invests near market tops and sells near market bottoms.”

Net Smart Dumb Money vs Market

That enthusiasm has increased sharply since last November as stocks surged in hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. As noted by Sentiment Trader:

“Over the past 18 weeks, the straight-up rally has moved us to an interesting juncture in the Sentiment Cycle. For the past few weeks, the S&P 500 has demonstrated a high positive correlation to the ‘Enthusiasm’ part of the cycle and a highly negative correlation to the ‘Panic’ phase.”

Investor Enthusiasm

That frenzy to chase the markets, driven by the psychological bias of the “fear of missing out,” has permeated the entirety of the market. As noted in This Is Nuts:”

“Since then, the entire market has surged higher following last week’s earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA). The reason I say “this is nuts” is the assumption that all companies were going to grow earnings and revenue at Nvidia’s rate. There is little doubt about Nvidia’s earnings and revenue growth rates. However, to maintain that growth pace indefinitely, particularly at 32x price-to-sales, means others like AMD and Intel must lose market share.”

Nvidia Price To Sales

Of course, it is not just a speculative frenzy in the markets for stocks, specifically anything related to “artificial intelligence,” but that exuberance has spilled over into gold and cryptocurrencies.

Birds Of A Feather

There are a couple of ways to measure exuberance in the assets. While sentiment measures examine the broad market, technical indicators can reflect exuberance on individual asset levels. However, before we get to our charts, we need a brief explanation of statistics, specifically, standard deviation.

As I discussed in “Revisiting Bob Farrell’s 10 Investing Rules”:

“Like a rubber band that has been stretched too far – it must be relaxed in order to be stretched again. This is exactly the same for stock prices that are anchored to their moving averages. Trends that get overextended in one direction, or another, always return to their long-term average. Even during a strong uptrend or strong downtrend, prices often move back (revert) to a long-term moving average.”

The idea of “stretching the rubber band” can be measured in several ways, but I will limit our discussion this week to Standard Deviation and measuring deviation with “Bollinger Bands.”

“Standard Deviation” is defined as:

“A measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is calculated as the square root of the variance.”

In plain English, this means that the further away from the average that an event occurs, the more unlikely it becomes. As shown below, out of 1000 occurrences, only three will fall outside the area of 3 standard deviations. 95.4% of the time, events will occur within two standard deviations.

Standard Deviation Chart

A second measure of “exuberance” is “relative strength.”

“In technical analysis, the relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can read from 0 to 100.

Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.” – Investopedia

With those two measures, let’s look at Nvidia (NVDA), the poster child of speculative momentum trading in the markets. Nvidia trades more than 3 standard deviations above its moving average, and its RSI is 81. The last time this occurred was in July of 2023 when Nvidia consolidated and corrected prices through November.

NVDA chart vs Bollinger Bands

Interestingly, gold also trades well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI reading of 75. Given that gold is supposed to be a “safe haven” or “risk off” asset, it is instead getting swept up in the current market exuberance.

Gold vs Bollinger Bands

The same is seen with digital currencies. Given the recent approval of spot, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the panic bid to buy Bitcoin has pushed the price well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI of 73.

Bitcoin vs Bollinger Bands

In other words, the stock market frenzy to “buy anything that is going up” has spread from just a handful of stocks related to artificial intelligence to gold and digital currencies.

It’s All Relative

We can see the correlation between stock market exuberance and gold and digital currency, which has risen since 2015 but accelerated following the post-pandemic, stimulus-fueled market frenzy. Since the market, gold and cryptocurrencies, or Bitcoin for our purposes, have disparate prices, we have rebased the performance to 100 in 2015.

Gold was supposed to be an inflation hedge. Yet, in 2022, gold prices fell as the market declined and inflation surged to 9%. However, as inflation has fallen and the stock market surged, so has gold. Notably, since 2015, gold and the market have moved in a more correlated pattern, which has reduced the hedging effect of gold in portfolios. In other words, during the subsequent market decline, gold will likely track stocks lower, failing to provide its “wealth preservation” status for investors.

SP500 vs Gold

The same goes for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is substantially more volatile than gold and tends to ebb and flow with the overall market. As sentiment surges in the S&P 500, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies follow suit as speculative appetites increase. Unfortunately, for individuals once again piling into Bitcoin to chase rising prices, if, or when, the market corrects, the decline in cryptocurrencies will likely substantially outpace the decline in market-based equities. This is particularly the case as Wall Street can now short the spot-Bitcoin ETFs, creating additional selling pressure on Bitcoin.

SP500 vs Bitcoin

Just for added measure, here is Bitcoin versus gold.

Gold vs Bitcoin

Not A Recommendation

There are many narratives surrounding the markets, digital currency, and gold. However, in today’s market, more than in previous years, all assets are getting swept up into the investor-feeding frenzy.

Sure, this time could be different. I am only making an observation and not an investment recommendation.

However, from a portfolio management perspective, it will likely pay to remain attentive to the correlated risk between asset classes. If some event causes a reversal in bullish exuberance, cash and bonds may be the only place to hide.

The post Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings appeared first on RIA.

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