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Housing inventory crisis continues in 2022

Want to know where housing demand is headed? Look at the MBA purchase application data from the second week of January to the first week of May.
The post Housing inventory crisis continues in 2022 appeared first on HousingWire.



Early in 2021, when I was talking about how people should worry about home prices overheating, I had a glimmer of hope that maybe toward the end of 2021 we would be spared another seasonal collapse of inventory. Inventory always falls in the fall and winter, but I hoped it wouldn’t be a repeat of 2020.

Unfortunately, that didn’t happen and recent data shows that we are at fresh new all-time lows in housing inventory, with mortgage rates and the unemployment rate both under 4% currently.

Houston, we have a problem.

I have always been mindful that the years 2020-2024 have the potential for unhealthy home-price growth, but now that we are entering year three of this unique five-year period, it’s time to see when mother economics will give us clues about when this madness with meager inventory will end. We are in the middle of January 2022 and spring selling season isn’t too far away. I don’t believe any of us want 2023 to start off with new fresh all-time lows in inventory.

Mortgage demand needs to slow down

A big theme of my work here at HousingWire has been to show you that since 2014 purchase application data has been rising just as total inventory has been slowly moving lower. Demand is growing and stable, excluding the COVID-19 pause. Unfortunately, we need to see weakness in demand for inventory to rise and get into a range that I am 100% rooting for, between 1.52- 1.93 million. This level, while historically still low, will mean the days on market will go higher, and this will give people choices.

Here are two charts from the National Association of Realtors that will show that homes simply come off the market too fast to give housing a breather.

This data comes from the recent existing home sales report which has been outperforming lately.

The best way to track whether mortgage demand is slowing down is to look at the MBA mortgage purchase application data from the second week of January to the first week of May. Typically, this data line falls in volume past May, so February to April are the real key months to focus on.

For some perspective, you really only want to look at the year-over-year data with this data line and also realize that we are still dealing with COVID-19 comps until mid-February: after that, we should be fine on a year-over-year basis. For example, today, purchase application data is down 17% year over year and has been showing negative year-over-year trends since the middle of 2021. However, once you make COVID-19 adjustments, the demand was stable in 2021 and picked up toward the end of the year.

My 2022 existing home sales range is lower than what we are currently trending at: I am looking for a sale range between 5.74 million and 6.16 million.

If housing is really getting softer, you will see year-over-year declines of 15%-30% in this data line. We had this happen only two times in the past eight years excluding the recent data that need COVID-19 adjustments.

In 2014, purchase application data on-trend was down 20% year over year because rates had spiked up higher in the second half of 2013. We saw softness in housing toward the second half of 2013 as well. Total inventory levels rose in 2014 and adjusting to population, that was the lowest level in MBA purchase application data ever. Still, with that slowdown in demand, monthly supply never broke above six months. However, the rate of price growth cooled down and days on market grew.

Higher rates created balance in the marketplace in 2013-2014 and also in 2018-2019. While I do believe the rate of growth of home prices are cooling, it’s still well above my comfort zone for the years 2020-2024. I don’t want it to seem like I am rooting against housing, I just would like to see more balance in the marketplace. There is a reason I was warning about home price growth with inventory and mortgage rates low amid stable demand.

In 2020, for about six weeks purchase application data took a dive as Americans were pausing due to the first experience of COVID-19. Back then people took their homes off the market so the inventory data didn’t move too much higher outside a brief increase as people realized the world wasn’t ending. We had purchase application data down over 30% year over year, which took sales down as buying paused. However, sales shot right back up higher, quickly.

So, for 2022, you want to keep an eye on the year-over-year data, especially past mid-February toward April. If you see year-over-year declines in the data, then the days on market should grow. I am not talking about 5% – 8% year-over-year declines, I am talking more like 15%-30% year-over-year declines after COVID-19 adjustments are made. When it really matters, this data line will show you double-digit percentage moves both positive and negative. If you’re looking for balance like I am, this is where you want to look. This data line looks out 30-90 days as well, so you get the picture: the critical time for this data line is coming up in 2022.

Don’t spend too much time on mortgage credit getting looser or tighter

One area that you don’t need to focus too much on is mortgage credit availability. I know many housing bears had hoped that credit getting tighter in 2020 and 2021 would crash the housing market. However, credit is very liberal today, as it always has been. However, since we’ve had no exotic loan debt structure post-2010, credit looking tight on paper just doesn’t have the same impact as it did from 2005-2009. At that time sales were declining from a high level and credit was getting very tight from the standards that facilitated the demand from 2002-2005.

From the chart below, it looks like credit got very tight from the start of COVID-19 and not much has been happening after that. In reality, most loans in America were basic vanilla 30-year fixed loans, and credit flowed for the most part during the COVID-19 crisis and recovery, all the way from 2021 to 2022. So if credit availability grows or declines, it’s only on the marginal loan products that are being used to buy primary residence homes. This isn’t like the peak of the housing bubble where 35% of the loans that were being done were ARM products. That number is below 5% now, so you don’t need to worry about the 30-year fixed loan being shut down. Or you don’t need to concern yourself that exotic loan debt products are coming back into the system pushing credit availability up

From the MBA:

Lastly, it falls back on the bond market

As you can probably tell from my writing, I believe and love a balanced housing market. What we have currently isn’t a balanced market. I really didn’t need to worry about this from 2008-2019, because I never believed we had the demographic demand to push total sales over 6.2 million to drive inventory levels to such low levels.

Well, that isn’t the case in the years 2020-2024, hence why I have always separated these two periods: from 2008-2019 and then from 2020-2024. With that said, in the past, higher mortgage rates, while never crashing the existing home sales market, have been able to cool things down and create more days on the market. The only problem is that this will require the 10-year yield to break over 1.94% and keep rising with some duration. This obviously hasn’t happened and this hasn’t been part of my forecast in 2021 or 2022. You can see why I am concerned.

Even with the hottest economic growth in decades, smoking hot inflation data — like we saw in the CPI report today — and all the talk about the Fed rate hike and taper, the 10-year yield currently right now is at 1.72%. Don’t forget, with the bond market, the trend is your friend, as I talked about in a recent article on jobs data.

What we know today is that we are starting 2022 spring at fresh new all-time lows in inventory for single family homes. Mike Simonsen, a friend from Altos Research creates weekly charts on the meager supply of inventory.

Here in Southern California, the amount of inventory in Los Angeles County is 4,432 homes, in Orange County it’s 954, and In San Diego it’s 1,254. Think about the millions of people who live in these areas and we are looking to start the year at 6,640 homes for sale.

Now, seasonality works both way. Inventory will pick up in the spring and summer and fade in fall and winter. However, as you can see, we are far from levels I would consider to be balanced, where days on market grow and people have choices. Since we are in year three of my five-year unique housing demographic period, demand being stable means getting the velocity of inventory to rise in a big way is difficult. The only way we can get some relief is if mortgage demand fades because that is the primary driver of housing demand. As we all know, the forbearance crash bros failed dramatically in 2021.

I would keep a close eye on mortgage demand, especially from mid February to April, to gauge whether mortgage demand is fading, which would allow days on market to grow. If this doesn’t happen, we are going to have another year of unhealthy home-price growth. Mother economics, she is a serial killer and will leave clues on what the economy is doing — the trick is always looking in the right spot. Remember, always be the detective, not the troll.

The post Housing inventory crisis continues in 2022 appeared first on HousingWire.

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Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study

Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Repeated COVID-19…



Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination Weakens Immune System: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Repeated COVID-19 vaccination weakens the immune system, potentially making people susceptible to life-threatening conditions such as cancer, according to a new study.

A man is given a COVID-19 vaccine in Chelsea, Mass., on Feb. 16, 2021. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

Multiple doses of the Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines lead to higher levels of antibodies called IgG4, which can provide a protective effect. But a growing body of evidence indicates that the “abnormally high levels” of the immunoglobulin subclass actually make the immune system more susceptible to the COVID-19 spike protein in the vaccines, researchers said in the paper.

They pointed to experiments performed on mice that found multiple boosters on top of the initial COVID-19 vaccination “significantly decreased” protection against both the Delta and Omicron virus variants and testing that found a spike in IgG4 levels after repeat Pfizer vaccination, suggesting immune exhaustion.

Studies have detected higher levels of IgG4 in people who died with COVID-19 when compared to those who recovered and linked the levels with another known determinant of COVID-19-related mortality, the researchers also noted.

A review of the literature also showed that vaccines against HIV, malaria, and pertussis also induce the production of IgG4.

“In sum, COVID-19 epidemiological studies cited in our work plus the failure of HIV, Malaria, and Pertussis vaccines constitute irrefutable evidence demonstrating that an increase in IgG4 levels impairs immune responses,” Alberto Rubio Casillas, a researcher with the biology laboratory at the University of Guadalajara in Mexico and one of the authors of the new paper, told The Epoch Times via email.

The paper was published by the journal Vaccines in May.

Pfizer and Moderna officials didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Both companies utilize messenger RNA (mRNA) technology in their vaccines.

Dr. Robert Malone, who helped invent the technology, said the paper illustrates why he’s been warning about the negative effects of repeated vaccination.

“I warned that more jabs can result in what’s called high zone tolerance, of which the switch to IgG4 is one of the mechanisms. And now we have data that clearly demonstrate that’s occurring in the case of this as well as some other vaccines,” Malone, who wasn’t involved with the study, told The Epoch Times.

So it’s basically validating that this rush to administer and re-administer without having solid data to back those decisions was highly counterproductive and appears to have resulted in a cohort of people that are actually more susceptible to the disease.”

Possible Problems

The weakened immune systems brought about by repeated vaccination could lead to serious problems, including cancer, the researchers said.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 06/03/2023 - 22:30

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Spread & Containment

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Banned By Major Social Media Site, Campaign Pages Blocked

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Banned By Major Social Media Site, Campaign Pages Blocked

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),




Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Banned By Major Social Media Site, Campaign Pages Blocked

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Twitter owner Elon Musk invited Democrat presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for a discussion on his Twitter Spaces after Kennedy said his campaign was suspended by Meta-owned Instagram.

Interesting… when we use our TeamKennedy email address to set up @instagram accounts we get an automatic 180-day ban. Can anyone guess why that’s happening?” he wrote on Twitter.

An accompanying image shows that Instagram said it “suspended” his “Team Kennedy” account and that there “are 180 days remaining to disagree” with the company’s decision.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. attends Keep it Clean to benefit Waterkeeper Alliance in Los Angeles, Calif., on March 1, 2018. (John Sciulli/Getty Images for Waterkeeper Alliance)

In response to his post, Musk wrote: “Would you like to do a Spaces discussion with me next week?” Kennedy agreed, saying he would do it Monday at 2 p.m. ET.

Hours later, Kennedy wrote that Instagram “still hasn’t reinstated my account, which was banned years ago with more than 900k followers.” He argued that “to silence a major political candidate is profoundly undemocratic.”

“Social media is the modern equivalent of the town square,” the candidate, who is the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy, wrote. “How can democracy function if only some candidates have access to it?”

The Epoch Times approached Instagram for comment.

It’s not the first time that either Facebook or Instagram has taken action against Kennedy. In 2021, Instagram banned him from posting claims about vaccine safety and COVID-19.

After he was banned by the platform, Kennedy said that his Instagram posts raised legitimate concerns about vaccines and were backed by research. His account was banned just days after Facebook and Instagram announced they would block the spread of what they described as misinformation about vaccines, including research saying the shots cause autism, are dangerous, or are ineffective.

“This kind of censorship is counterproductive if our objective is a safe and effective vaccine supply,” he said at the time.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 06/03/2023 - 20:30

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Study Falsely Linking Hydroxychloroquine To Increased Deaths Frequently Cited Even After Retraction

Study Falsely Linking Hydroxychloroquine To Increased Deaths Frequently Cited Even After Retraction

Authored by Jessie Zhang via Thje Epoch…



Study Falsely Linking Hydroxychloroquine To Increased Deaths Frequently Cited Even After Retraction

Authored by Jessie Zhang via Thje Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

An Australian and Swedish investigation has found that among the hundreds of COVID-19 research papers that have been withdrawn, a retracted study linking the drug hydroxychloroquine to increased mortality was the most cited paper.

Hydroxychloroquine sulphate tablets. (Memories Over Mocha/Shutterstock)

With 1,360 citations at the time of data extraction, researchers in the field were still referring to the paper “Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis” long after it was retracted.

Authors of the analysis involving the University of Wollongong, Linköping University, and Western Sydney Local Health District wrote (pdf) that “most researchers who cite retracted research do not identify that the paper is retracted, even when submitting long after the paper has been withdrawn.”

“This has serious implications for the reliability of published research and the academic literature, which need to be addressed,” they said.

Retraction is the final safeguard against academic error and misconduct, and thus a cornerstone of the entire process of knowledge generation.”

Scientists Question Findings

Over 100 medical professionals wrote an open letter, raising ten major issues with the paper.

These included the fact that there was “no ethics review” and “unusually small reported variances in baseline variables, interventions and outcomes,” as well as “no mention of the countries or hospitals that contributed to the data source and no acknowledgments to their contributions.”

A bottle of Hydroxychloroquine at the Medicine Shoppe in Wilkes-Barre, Pa on March 31, 2020. Some politicians and doctors were sparring over whether to use hydroxychloroquine against the new coronavirus, with many scientists saying the evidence is too thin to recommend it yet. (Mark Moran/The Citizens’ Voice via AP)

Other concerns were that the average daily doses of hydroxychloroquine were higher than the FDA-recommended amounts, which would present skewed results.

They also found that the data that was reportedly from Australian patients did not seem to match data from the Australian government.

Eventually, the study led the World Health Organization to temporarily suspend the trial of hydroxychloroquine on COVID-19 patients and to the UK regulatory body, MHRA, requesting the temporary pause of recruitment into all hydroxychloroquine trials in the UK.

France also changed its national recommendation of the drug in COVID-19 treatments and halted all trials.

Currently, a total of 337 research papers on COVID-19 have been retracted, according to Retraction Watch.

Further retractions are expected as the investigation of proceeds.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/03/2023 - 17:30

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