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Here’s The Data Congress Needs To Regulate Social Media

Here’s The Data Congress Needs To Regulate Social Media

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Here's The Data Congress Needs To Regulate Social Media Tyler Durden Wed, 07/29/2020 - 14:15

Authored by Kalev Leetaru via RealClearPolitics.com,

As Washington intensifies its focus on the influence of social media platforms on American life and the democratic process, the heated rhetoric and myriad policy proposals lack one crucial element: data.

For all the concern over “community guidelines,” content moderation, fact-checking and advertising policies, we have few of the actual data points necessary to evaluate how well the companies are doing. Could it be that they get it right most of the time and it is just a few high-profile mistakes that are driving our concern? Conversely, are the companies getting it wrong much more than we -- or even they -- realize? What are the datasets that Congress should require from social companies in order to help the public better understand the role those platforms play in society today?

On paper, the platforms’ content moderation practices and fact-checking partnerships seem like reasonable solutions to the difficult task of keeping bad actors from disrupting their digital communities. Yet how closely do the companies adhere to these rules in practice? To what degree do the unconscious biases of the companies’ engineers manifest themselves in their algorithms? Would the American public be as supportive of content moderation if they understood the disproportionate ways it can impact certain voices or the unevenness in how the platforms apply their rules. In order to compare rhetoric to reality, we need data that captures the daily functioning of our modern public squares.

Here are 10 datasets that Congress could demand from social media companies that would begin to provide the critical insights needed to understand their roles in our modern democracy and highlight areas that may require further legislative action.

1. A Database of Violating Tweets. Given that all tweets are publicly viewable and already accessible to researchers using Twitter’s data APIs (application programming interfaces), there would be few privacy implications in requiring Twitter to provide a public database of all tweets the platform flags each day, along with a description of why Twitter believed each tweet was a violation of its rules or disputed by a fact-checker. Such a database would permit at-scale analysis of the kinds of content Twitter’s moderation efforts focus on, while the ability to compare those violating tweets against the rest of Twitter would make it possible to assess how evenhanded the platform’s removal efforts are.

2. A Database of Journalist & Politician Private Post Violations. Most social platforms, such as Facebook and Instagram, are a mixture of public and private content. Publicly shared content violations could be compiled and disseminated to researchers, as could public tweets, but private content such as non-public Facebook posts that are deleted or flagged as misinformation pose unique privacy challenges. One possibility would be to treat the verified official accounts of journalists and elected officials as different from other users, given their outsized role in the public discourse, and to automatically make available to researchers any posts by those accounts that are later deleted as violations of platform rules or disputed by fact-checkers. A separate voluntary submission database could allow ordinary users to submit their own posts that were deemed violations, along with the explanation they received regarding the violation. Having a single centralized database of such removals would make it easier to understand trends in the kinds of content platforms are most heavily policing and whether there is public agreement with the platforms’ decisions.

3. A Demographic Database of Content Removals. Social platforms use algorithms to estimate myriad demographic characteristics of their users, including race, gender, religion, sexual orientation and other attributes that marketers can use to precisely target their ads. While these attributes are imperfect, the fact that the companies make them available for ad targeting suggests they believe they are sufficiently accurate to build an advertising strategy upon. The companies should be required to compile regular demographic percentage breakdowns of deleted and flagged posts for each of their community guidelines and fact checks. For example, what percentage of “hate speech” posts were ascribed to persons of color or how many “misinformation” posts were by members of a given religious affiliation? Do the companies’ enforcement actions appear to disproportionately impact vulnerable voices?

4. A Database of Exempted Posts. A common criticism of content moderation is the unevenness with which it is applied. Why do some users seemingly face constant enforcement action while others posting the exact same material face no consequences? Why is one politician’s post preserved as “newsworthy” while another is removed as a violation? A critical missing component in our understanding of content moderation is the degree to which companies create silent exemptions from their rules. On paper, Facebook prohibits all forms of sexism, racism, bullying and threats of violence, but in practice, the company allows some posts as “humor” or otherwise declines to take action. How often do users report posts that the company determines are not a violation? And does it systematically exempt certain kinds of content? Compiling a central database of posts the companies rule are not violations would offer critical insights into how evenhanded they are and where their enforcement gaps are.

5. A Database of Deleted & Exempted Protest Posts. Protest marches are increasingly being organized over social media. As platforms extend their censorship to these posts, they are able to control speech that occurs beyond their digital borders. This makes understanding how platforms moderate protest-related speech uniquely important. For weeks Facebook touted its removal of COVID “reopening” protests that did not require social distancing, yet quietly waived those rules for the George Floyd protests. Having a centralized database of protest posts removed by platforms as well as those exempted from its rules would go a long way towards understanding how much the platforms are shaping the offline discourse.

6. Increased Access to Facebook’s Fact-Checking Database. Facebook provides an internal dashboard to fact-checking organizations that lists the posts it believes may be false or misleading. Today, access to that dashboard is extremely limited, but broadening access to policymakers and the academic community as a whole would enable much closer scrutiny of the kinds of material Facebook is focusing on. Given that the company already shares this content with its fact-checking partners, there would be fewer privacy implications to broadening that access to a wider pool of researchers.

7. A Database of Fact-Checked Posts. What are the kinds of posts that social platforms delete or flag as having been disputed by fact-checking organizations? Are climate change posts flagged more often than immigration posts? How are platforms managing the constantly changing guidelines for COVID-19, where just a few months ago posts recommending masks would have in theory been a violation of the platforms’ “misinformation” rules governing health information that goes against CDC guidance? How often are posts flagged based on questionable ratings or potentially conflicted sources?

In an ideal world, platforms would be required to compile a database of every post they flag as being disputed by a fact-checker. For public posts such as those on Twitter, this could be possible, but for platforms like Facebook, this would pose a privacy challenge. One possibility would be to require platforms such as Facebook to provide a daily report listing the URL of every fact check they relied upon to flag a user post that day, along with how many posts were flagged based on that fact check. For example, of all of the climate change fact checks published over the years, which are the ones that yield the most takedowns on social platforms? Do the most heavily cited fact checks rely on the same sources of “truth” as other fact checks on that topic or is a particular source, such as an academic “expert,” having an outsized influence on “truth” on social platforms? Such data would also help fact-checkers to periodically review their most-cited fact checks to verify that their findings still hold, while during pandemic public health officials could use it to flag emerging contested narratives.

8. Increased Access to Facebook Research Datasets. Through academic partnerships and programs like Social Science One, Facebook permits large-scale research on its 2 billion users, from manipulating their emotions to linking data sets to more in-depth analyses of the flow of information across its platform. Researchers from across the world have been given access to study misinformation and sharing on Facebook, and a closer look at the projects approved to date suggests the kinds of access they have been granted would also support work into understanding the biases of Facebook’s own moderation practices.

9. Algorithmic Trending Datasets. The power of algorithms to shape our awareness of events around us was driven home in 2014 when Twitter chronicled the unrest in Ferguson, Mo., while Facebook was filled with the smiling faces of people dumping buckets of ice water over their heads. A public dataset capturing how public posts are being prioritized or deemphasized by these algorithms across classes of users and over time would provide insights into inadvertent biases in these algorithms and provide greater visibility into what the public is and is not seeing.

10. The Legal System. Many of the “community guidelines” enforced by social platforms are, at least on paper, also violations of U.S. law, including libel, harassment and threats of violence. How often do social media companies or recipients of those messages refer them to law enforcement and what was the outcome of those cases? If few such posts are ever referred to law enforcement, why do social platforms believe harassment and threats of violence should not be reported to officials if they believe they are dangerous enough to warrant removal from their platforms? Tracking cases where posts were referred to law enforcement and the resulting legal decisions would shed light on how closely social media platforms’ interpretations of U.S. laws adhere to reality.

In the end, we lack the necessary data to determine what kinds of regulation are required for social platforms. The datasets above would give policymakers and researchers critical building blocks upon which to begin understanding Silicon Valley’s influence over democracy itself.

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Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges

Here’s what could happen to Apple shares next.

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They said it was bound to happen.

It was Jan. 11, 2024 when software giant Microsoft  (MSFT)  briefly passed Apple  (AAPL)  as the most valuable company in the world.

Microsoft's stock closed 0.5% higher, giving it a market valuation of $2.859 trillion. 

It rose as much as 2% during the session and the company was briefly worth $2.903 trillion. Apple closed 0.3% lower, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.886 trillion. 

"It was inevitable that Microsoft would overtake Apple since Microsoft is growing faster and has more to benefit from the generative AI revolution," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said at the time, according to Reuters.

The two tech titans have jostled for top spot over the years and Microsoft was ahead at last check, with a market cap of $3.085 trillion, compared with Apple's value of $2.684 trillion.

Analysts noted that Apple had been dealing with weakening demand, including for the iPhone, the company’s main source of revenue. 

Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country's economy makes a slow recovery from the pandemic and competition from Huawei.

Sales in China of Apple's iPhone fell by 24% in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to research firm Counterpoint, as the company contended with stiff competition from a resurgent Huawei "while getting squeezed in the middle on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi," said senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang.

“Although the iPhone 15 is a great device, it has no significant upgrades from the previous version, so consumers feel fine holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now," he said.

A man scrolling through Netflix on an Apple iPad Pro. Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Future Publishing/Getty Images

Big plans for China

Counterpoint said that the first six weeks of 2023 saw abnormally high numbers with significant unit sales being deferred from December 2022 due to production issues.

Apple is planning to open its eighth store in Shanghai – and its 47th across China – on March 21.

Related: Tech News Now: OpenAI says Musk contract 'never existed', Xiaomi's EV, and more

The company also plans to expand its research centre in Shanghai to support all of its product lines and open a new lab in southern tech hub Shenzhen later this year, according to the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Apple announced changes to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which went into effect last week, Reuters reported on March 12.

Beginning this spring, software developers operating in Europe will be able to distribute apps to EU customers directly from their own websites instead of through the App Store.

"To reflect the DMA’s changes, users in the EU can install apps from alternative app marketplaces in iOS 17.4 and later," Apple said on its website, referring to the software platform that runs iPhones and iPads. 

"Users will be able to download an alternative marketplace app from the marketplace developer’s website," the company said.

Apple has also said it will appeal a $2 billion EU antitrust fine for thwarting competition from Spotify  (SPOT)  and other music streaming rivals via restrictions on the App Store.

The company's shares have suffered amid all this upheaval, but some analysts still see good things in Apple's future.

Bank of America Securities confirmed its positive stance on Apple, maintaining a buy rating with a steady price target of $225, according to Investing.com

The firm's analysis highlighted Apple's pricing strategy evolution since the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007, with initial prices set at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB model.

BofA said that Apple has consistently launched new iPhone models, including the Pro/Pro Max versions, to target the premium market. 

Analyst says Apple selloff 'overdone'

Concurrently, prices for previous models are typically reduced by about $100 with each new release. 

This strategy, coupled with installment plans from Apple and carriers, has contributed to the iPhone's installed base reaching a record 1.2 billion in 2023, the firm said.

More Tech Stocks:

Apple has effectively shifted its sales mix toward higher-value units despite experiencing slower unit sales, BofA said.

This trend is expected to persist and could help mitigate potential unit sales weaknesses, particularly in China. 

BofA also noted Apple's dominance in the high-end market, maintaining a market share of over 90% in the $1,000 and above price band for the past three years.

The firm also cited the anticipation of a multi-year iPhone cycle propelled by next-generation AI technology, robust services growth, and the potential for margin expansion.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said they believed that the sell-off in the iPhone maker’s shares may be “overdone.”

The firm said that investors' growing preference for AI-focused stocks like Nvidia  (NVDA)  has led to a reallocation of funds away from Apple. 

In addition, Evercore said concerns over weakening demand in China, where Apple may be losing market share in the smartphone segment, have affected investor sentiment.

And then ongoing regulatory issues continue to have an impact on investor confidence in the world's second-biggest company.

“We think the sell-off is rather overdone, while we suspect there is strong valuation support at current levels to down 10%, there are three distinct drivers that could unlock upside on the stock from here – a) Cap allocation, b) AI inferencing, and c) Risk-off/defensive shift," the firm said in a research note.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Major typhoid fever surveillance study in sub-Saharan Africa indicates need for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high…

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There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Credit: IVI

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

 

The findings from this 4-year study, the Severe Typhoid in Africa (SETA) program, offers new typhoid fever burden estimates from six countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria, with four countries recording more than 100 cases for every 100,000 person-years of observation, which is considered a high burden. The highest incidence of typhoid was found in DRC with 315 cases per 100,000 people while children between 2-14 years of age were shown to be at highest risk across all 25 study sites.

 

There are an estimated 12.5 to 16.3 million cases of typhoid every year with 140,000 deaths. However, with generic symptoms such as fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain, and the need for blood culture sampling to make a definitive diagnosis, it is difficult for governments to capture the true burden of typhoid in their countries.

 

“Our goal through SETA was to address these gaps in typhoid disease burden data,” said lead author Dr. Florian Marks, Deputy Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). “Our estimates indicate that introduction of TCV in endemic settings would go to lengths in protecting communities, especially school-aged children, against this potentially deadly—but preventable—disease.”

 

In addition to disease incidence, this study also showed that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Salmonella Typhi, the bacteria that causes typhoid fever, has led to more reliance beyond the traditional first line of antibiotic treatment. If left untreated, severe cases of the disease can lead to intestinal perforation and even death. This suggests that prevention through vaccination may play a critical role in not only protecting against typhoid fever but reducing the spread of drug-resistant strains of the bacteria.

 

There are two TCVs prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and available through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. In February 2024, IVI and SK bioscience announced that a third TCV, SKYTyphoid™, also achieved WHO PQ, paving the way for public procurement and increasing the global supply.

 

Alongside the SETA disease burden study, IVI has been working with colleagues in three African countries to show the real-world impact of TCV vaccination. These studies include a cluster-randomized trial in Agogo, Ghana and two effectiveness studies following mass vaccination in Kisantu, DRC and Imerintsiatosika, Madagascar.

 

Dr. Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Associate Director General at IVI and Head of the Real-World Evidence Department, explains, “Through these vaccine effectiveness studies, we aim to show the full public health value of TCV in settings that are directly impacted by a high burden of typhoid fever.” He adds, “Our final objective of course is to eliminate typhoid or to at least reduce the burden to low incidence levels, and that’s what we are attempting in Fiji with an island-wide vaccination campaign.”

 

As more countries in typhoid endemic countries, namely in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, consider TCV in national immunization programs, these data will help inform evidence-based policy decisions around typhoid prevention and control.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that is recently pre-qualified by WHO.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, a Country Office in Austria, and Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

CONTACT

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int


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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC’s…

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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever... And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC's Brian Sullivan took a horse dose of Red Pills when, about six months after our readers, he learned that the US is issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, which prompted him to rage tweet, (or rageX, not sure what the proper term is here) the following:

We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.   

Maybe it will never matter.   Maybe MMT is real.   Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.

I have no idea.  Only time will tell.   But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."

According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.

The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...

... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.

The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.

And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.

But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).

And it gets even worse, because we are now in the ponzi finance stage of the Minsky cycle, with total interest on the debt annualizing well above $1 trillion, and rising every day

... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.

We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...

.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:

The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.

Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.

That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.

No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.

Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 18:40

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