Connect with us

Economics

Has The Fed Already Pricked The Housing Bubble?

Has The Fed Already Pricked The Housing Bubble?

Via SchiffGold.com,

The Federal Reserve has raised rates once – a mere 25 basis points…

Published

on

Has The Fed Already Pricked The Housing Bubble?

Via SchiffGold.com,

The Federal Reserve has raised rates once – a mere 25 basis points (with another hike on the table today). So, it’s just getting started, but has it already popped the housing bubble? It sure looks that way. The question is how long will it take for the air to really start coming out.

As mortgage rates push up, mortgage applications continue to fall. As of last week, applications were down 17%, and at the lowest level since May 2020 when the economy was shut down for COVID, according to last week’s Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly Purchase Index. The index has dropped 30% from peak demand in late 2020 and early 2021.

Meanwhile, pending home sales in February dropped 4% and another 1.2% in March. It was the fifth consecutive month of sagging home sales.

The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages conforming to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac limits with 20% down jumped to 5.37% last week, the highest since August 2009. In December 2020, mortgage rates were below 3%.

Between surging mortgage rates and inflated housing prices, more and more buyers are being squeezed out of the market. The MBA report projected continued falling home sales in the months ahead.

The drop in purchase applications was evident across all loan types. Prospective home buyers have pulled back this spring, as they continue to face limited options of homes for sale along with higher costs from increasing mortgage rates and prices. The recent decrease in purchase applications is an indication of potential weakness in home sales in the coming months.”

WolfStreet broke down some numbers to show just how much housing costs have skyrocketed in the last year.

The mortgage on a home purchased a year ago at the median price (per National Association of Realtors) of $326,300, and financed with 20% down over 30 years, at the average rate at the time of 3.17%, came with a payment of 1,320 per month. The mortgage on a home purchased today at the median price of $375,300, and financed with 20% down, at 5.37% comes with a payment of $1,990.”

In other words, buying the same house today will cost you $670 per month more than it did if you bought it last year. That represents a 50% jump in mortgage payments for the same home. This is another example of how CPI understates actual increases in prices.

The Federal Reserve blew up this housing bubble when it artificially suppressed interest rates and bought billions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities. Now the central bank has pricked the bubble by allowing rates to rise ever-so-slightly.

What the Fed giveth, the Fed taketh away.

Looking at the chart, you can see that mortgage rates began to fall in late 2018 as the economy tanked and the Federal Reserve ended its post-2008 rate hike cycle. Rates continued to fall as the Fed pivoted back to quantitative easing and then dropped through the floor with the rate cuts and QE infinity in response to the coronavirus. The big spike in mortgage rates started as the Fed began talking up monetary tightening to tackle raging inflation.

A housing market bust will reverberate through the economy as rising housing prices squeeze Americans already struggling to make ends meet with CPI well over 8%.

Rising mortgage rates also shut off a potential source of cash for millions of Americans. When rates drop, people often refinance their mortgages. But as Peter Schiff pointed out in a recent podcast, rising rates have already squeezed virtually everybody out of the refi market.

There’s nobody who can now refinance their mortgage into a lower rate because everybody’s got a better rate than what they can get now. And that refi lifeline has been a major lifeline for the economy because it’s given households a source of income.”

Refinancing not only provides a lump sum of cash to spend but also lowers mortgage payments, taking some strain off the monthly budget.

There was a wave of refinancing in 2019 after the Fed’s monetary U-turn started pushing mortgage rates lower. But over the last several months, the refi market has collapsed. Mortgage refinances have dropped 70% from a year ago and 80% from the peak in March 2020. That means we no longer have mortgage refinancing to support consumer spending.

The impact of rising rates and falling home sales are already rippling through the mortgage industry. Last week, Wells Fargo, one of the largest mortgage lenders in the US, announced layoffs. Other lenders have trimmed staff as well, including Softbank-backed mortgage “tech” startup Better.com, PennyMac Financial Services, Movement Mortgage and Winnpointe Corp.

As WolfStreet put it, “that boom is over.”

And the Fed has just now begun to push up interest rates, way too little and way too late, but it is finally plodding forward in order to deal with this rampant four-decade high inflation, after 13 years of rampant money-printing – an inflation of the magnitude the majority of Americans has never seen before.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/04/2022 - 15:00

Read More

Continue Reading

Economics

Copado’s Third Annual State of Salesforce DevOps Report Finds Teams Recovered from Last Year’s Dip in Quality but Struggle to Maintain Speed

Copado’s Third Annual State of Salesforce DevOps Report Finds Teams Recovered from Last Year’s Dip in Quality but Struggle to Maintain Speed
PR Newswire
CHICAGO, June 28, 2022

The longest running Salesforce DevOps report shows teams rebounding to p…

Published

on

Copado's Third Annual State of Salesforce DevOps Report Finds Teams Recovered from Last Year's Dip in Quality but Struggle to Maintain Speed

PR Newswire

The longest running Salesforce DevOps report shows teams rebounding to pre-pandemic levels for change fail rate and time to recover 

Research shows how high-performing teams use commercial low-code DevOps tools to release more often, recover faster and achieve business value

CHICAGO, June 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ --  Copado, the global leader in low-code DevOps, today released the findings from its third annual "State of Salesforce DevOps" report, which collects data and insights on the key trends in low-code software delivery. Based on thousands of data points collected from over 450 global Salesforce customers using DevOps to accelerate and improve the speed and quality of their implementations, the report highlights the improvement in quality, examines the possible causes of the decline in velocity, identifies the qualities of the teams that are thriving, and makes recommendations on how teams can maximize their development resources.

Adopting key principles from DORA, the report analyzed performance across Salesforce teams in terms of the dual goals of innovation velocity and release quality and security. Using the four metrics of lead time for change, deployment frequency, change failure rate and mean time to recovery, the report categorized respondents into four performance profiles that can be used to identify and measure the characteristics of both high and low performance.

Key takeaways from the Copado 2022 State of Salesforce DevOps report include:

Quality-first DevOps is increasing

The 2021 report found a significant reduction in quality and stability as evidenced by increased change failure rate and mean time to recover. Copado attributed that to the 2020 COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruption to team workflows. In 2022, that trend seems to have reversed, with stability returning to the 2019 levels.

Teams showed 8x shorter time to restore (96 hours in 2021 compared to 12 hours in 2022) and reported 50% lower change fail rate (38% in 2021 compared to 20% in 2022). In 2022, the change failure rates and recovery times were roughly the same as in 2019.

Salesforce teams tapped the brakes in 2022

Teams may have overcompensated for stability over the last year by reducing their velocity. This year's report shows a reduction in deployment frequency which dropped by half compared to the two previous years, from 475 per year to 230 per year on average. Elite performers continue to release faster with an average lead time of 8 days, compared to 50 days for low performers. Since 2019 the percentage of teams with lead times less than a week has declined from 69% to 49% and the number of users able to deploy on demand has shrunk from 23% to 10%.

Overall, compared to low performers, elite performers have:

  • 4x shorter lead times
  • 46x more deployments, 94% of elite performers release at least weekly vs. only 13% of low performers
  • 5x fewer production failures
  • 8x faster time to recover, less than four hours for elite performers and more than 18 days for low performers

"The last three years of research has taught us a lot about the challenges that Salesforce teams face and where they excel," said Andrew Davis, senior director of research and innovation at Copado. "Last year, the report showed the impact of a global pandemic and shift to remote work on the ability to ensure quality and stability. This year we've seen quality and stability trends bounce back. This points to the resilience and commitment of the community of Salesforce developers, admins, and business users who find a way. We've reached a point in time where the level of customization that can be built into the Salesforce platform makes it necessary to adopt DevOps tools and practices to manage software delivery well."

Salesforce teams continue to grow in size and complexity
For the second year in a row, Copado found that Salesforce teams are growing. This year, 46% of respondents report that their teams have grown, 41% have remained steady and just 13% report their team decreased in size. The continued growth in the size of development teams means a continued increase in the complexity of the Salesforce orgs they are building.

For the third year in a row, Copado found a strong correlation between team size and lead time. This year, there was also a correlation between team size and change failure rate and time to recover. All of these metrics worsened as teams grew in size.

Traditional use cases for low-code application development have been largely for internal business applications with limited business impact. In 2022, 72% of respondents use Salesforce for building internal applications, but now 60% are using the platform to build business-critical apps, and 66% are using the platform to build customer-facing apps, while 37% are building all three types. A much more rigorous release process should be applied to customer-facing and business-critical applications than needs to be applied to internal business apps. It should also be noted that these types of apps are usually much more sophisticated than internal apps.

Performance improves with commercial low-code DevOps tools
Low-code application development on Salesforce is the fastest way to translate ideas into innovation, but without enterprise software delivery capabilities in place, the power of low-code is undone by quality issues, manual processes and orchestration challenges. The report found that teams using DevOps tools designed specifically for Salesforce release 50% more frequently than teams using build-your-own platforms like Jenkins.

Copado also found that those who are highly involved in Enterprise Agile Planning (74% of respondents) and also use a commercial Salesforce tool for DevOps are 39% more likely to work at a company that is exceeding its goals. Given the current economic environment and growing importance of proving ROI and value realization for technology investments, teams that are investing in process improvements are better able to ensure that they're getting the greatest benefit.

Change failure rates can be reduced with automated testing
Teams need to shift to faster, more automated ways of ensuring quality. Automated testing of Salesforce applications is an opportunity area now that the Salesforce platform is used more often for external customer-facing and business-critical applications. Yet if there is any testing in the development process, manual testing is the most common method. One-third of Salesforce development teams use manual testing, 29% have minimal to no testing and 21% automate critical tests, while only 19% are practicing test-driven development.

The full report with a forward written by Peter Coffee, vice president of strategic research for Salesforce, can be found at: https://www.copado.com/devops-hub/ebooks/2022-state-of-salesforce-devops-report

Methodology
Copado surveyed over 450 executives, managers, and members of Salesforce delivery teams to learn about their development lifecycles. Conducted in April 2022, the survey included companies ranging in size from one employee to more than 1 million employees. Sixty percent of these companies have more than 500 Salesforce users. The goal was to better understand the challenges of innovating on the Salesforce platform. The analysis was done on the Tableau Analytics platform including data visualization, cross tab analysis, and core BI. 

Salesforce and others are among the trademarks of salesforce.com, inc.

Follow Copado

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/copado-solutions-s.l/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/CopadoSolutions

Blog: https://www.copado.com/learning/blog/

About Copado
Copado is the leading DevOps and testing solution for low-code SaaS platforms that run the world's largest digital transformations. Backed by Insight Partners, Salesforce Ventures and SoftBank Vision Fund, Copado accelerates multi-cloud, enterprise deployments by automating the end-to-end software delivery process to maximize customers' return on their cloud investment. More than 1,000 companies rely on Copado to drive digital transformation with speed, quality and value including Boston Scientific, Coca-Cola, Fair Trade, Linde, MassMutual, Schneider Electric and Shell. Copado DevOps 360™ processes over 50 million DevOps transactions per month and is rated with a 100% score on the Salesforce AppExchange. More information can be found at: http://www.copado.com.

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/copados-third-annual-state-of-salesforce-devops-report-finds-teams-recovered-from-last-years-dip-in-quality-but-struggle-to-maintain-speed-301576570.html

SOURCE Copado

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

China Stocks Outperform On Unexpected COVID Shift

China Stocks Outperform On Unexpected COVID Shift

Update (0920ET): China’s move to ease quarantine rules for inbound travelers from three…

Published

on

China Stocks Outperform On Unexpected COVID Shift

Update (0920ET): China's move to ease quarantine rules for inbound travelers from three weeks to just one week has bolstered sentiment for Chinese equities. 

Bullish calls are rising on Chinese stocks as the CSI 300 Index inches near a bull market. 

Fred Hu, the founder of China-based investment firm Primavera Capital Group, told Bloomberg that he believes Chinese tech firms have turned the corner after a $2 trillion rout sparked by Beijing's yearslong technology crackdown. 

NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index plunged more than 76% since its peak in early 2021, coinciding with Beijing's crackdown start. The index hit a low in March and has since bounced 67% -- because the crackdown fears show signs of softening. 

Hu believes "this could be the beginning of a new era for China tech ... There's a lot of value to be discovered," adding that investors still need to be selective in picking stocks. 

Adding to support is the People's Bank of China's accommodative monetary policy, which is the opposite of global central banks that aggressively tighten interest rates to prevent the surge in inflation from turning into dreaded 1970s-style stagflation. Today's quarantine reduction news, tech crackdown abating, and PBOC easing have produced a more optimistic outlook for Chinese stocks. 

However, a lingering threat of a US slowdown could be problematic for all investors. 

Lorraine Tan, director of equity research at Morningstar, told Bloomberg TV: "Even if we do get some China recovery in 2023, which could be a buffer for this region, it's not going to offset the US or global recession."

* * *

China unexpectedly slashed quarantine times for international travelers, to just one week, which suggests Beijing is easing COVID zero policies. The nationwide relaxation of pandemic restrictions led investors to buy Chinese stocks.

Inbound travelers will only quarantine for ten days, down from three weeks, which shows local authorities are easing draconian curbs on travel and economic activity as they worry about slumping economic growth sparked by restrictive COVID zero policies earlier this year that locked down Beijing and Shanghai for months (Shanghai finally lifted its lockdown measures on May 31). 

"This relaxation sends the signal that the economy comes first ... It is a sign of importance of the economy at this point," Li Changmin, Managing Director at Snowball Wealth in Guangzhou, told Bloomberg

At the peak of the COVID outbreak, many residents in China's largest city, Shanghai, were quarantined in their homes for two months, while international travelers were under "hard quarantines" for three weeks. The strict curbs appear to have suppressed the outbreak, but the tradeoff came at the cost of faltering economic growth. 

The announcement of the shorter quarantine period suggests a potentially more optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy. Bullish price action lifted CSI 300 Index by 1%, led by tourism-related stocks (LVMH shares rose as much as 2.5%, Richemont +3.1%, Kering +3%, Moncler +3%). 

"The reduction of travel restrictions will be positive for the luxury sector, and may boost consumer sentiment and confidence following months of lockdowns in China's biggest cities," Barclays analysts Carole Madjo wrote in a note. 

CSI 300 is up 19% from April's low, nearing bull market territory. 

Jane Foley, a strategist at Rabobank in London, commented that "this news suggests that perhaps the authorities will not be as stringent with Covid controls as has been expected." 

"The news also coincides with reports that the PBOC is pledging to keep monetary policy supportive," Foley pointed out, referring to Governor Yi Gang's latest comment. 

She said, "this suggests a potentially more optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, which is good news generally for commodity exporters such as Australia and all of China's trading partners." 

Even though the move is the right step in the right direction, Joerg Wuttke, head of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, said, "the country cannot open its borders completely due to relatively low vaccination rates ... This, in conjunction with a slow introduction of mRNA vaccines, means that China may have to maintain a restricted immigration policy beyond the summer of 2023." 

Alvin Tan, head of Asia currency strategy in Singapore for RBC Markets, also said shortening quarantine time for inbound visitors shouldn't be a gamechanger, and "there's nothing to say that it won't be raised tomorrow." 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/28/2022 - 09:20

Read More

Continue Reading

Spread & Containment

Penny Stocks To Watch: Why TOUR, JAN, ENDP, BRDS & WEJO Stock Are Moving

Penny stocks to watch with news
The post Penny Stocks To Watch: Why TOUR, JAN, ENDP, BRDS & WEJO Stock Are Moving appeared first on Penny Stocks to…

Published

on

Penny stocks are well-known for their high-risk and high-reward potential. When it comes to a choppy stock market, traders will flock to some of these names for quick gains instead of taking a chance at investing in a broader market that still has some downside left.

Needless to say, this week, in particular, could bring more speculation and uncertainty thanks to key economic data. The foremost is second-quarter GDP results set to report on Wednesday. The biggest question is, will GDP data signal signs or even confirm a recession?

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the figures show some interesting trends:

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2022, following an increase of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. The decrease was revised down 0.1 percentage point from the “advance” estimate released in April. In the first quarter, there was a resurgence of COVID-19 cases from the Omicron variant and decreases in government pandemic assistance payments.”

But whether or not this read-out is bullish or bearish may not matter much to traders looking for penny stocks to buy. Let’s explain.

Penny Stocks To Watch

In general, broader market trends take a back seat to whatever individual catalysts are at play with penny stocks. If you’ve traded long enough, I’m sure you’ve seen the stock market crash lower, yet several penny stocks are exploding higher. This detached trend is unique and has become one of many reasons traders hunt for top trending penny stocks daily.

One of the most prominent reasons for cheap stocks to move iradically even with the stock market down tends to involve headlines. These can become significant catalysts for a bullish (or bearish) trend. Here’s a quick list of penny stocks with news that are moving during the week.

  • Wejo Group Limited (NASDAQ: WEJO)
  • Bird Global Inc. (NYSE: BRDS)
  • Tuniu Corp. (NASDAQ: TOUR)
  • JanOne Inc. (NASDAQ: JAN)
  • Endo International (NASDAQ: ENDP)

Best Penny Stocks To Buy Now

Are penny stocks with news the best to buy now? Much of that answer deals with specific trading styles. Sometimes, news catalysts can be short-lived, primarily suitable for day traders. In other instances, headlines include verbiage and further discussion that prompt a longer-term forecast for some. If a company posts news, diving deeper beyond the headline is a good idea.

Wejo Group Limited (NASDAQ: WEJO)

Who said penny stocks have no legitimate business with well-established companies? Wejo Group is a prime example of why that statement isn’t accurate. The smart-mobility could solutions company focuses on electric and autonomous vehicle data. This has become a point of interest for those looking at car companies aiming for self-driving and a more tech-focused model.

Why WEJO Stock Is Moving

This week, Wejo Group announced a collaboration with none other than Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) in Europe. The two will leverage data and insights where Wejo can access personalized connected vehicle data from Ford vehicles.

“Providing actionable data insights to insurance providers is another example of how Wejo is expanding into additional markets and demonstrating new use cases for OEMs and insurance companies to monetize connected vehicle data for good,” said Richard Barlow, founder, and CEO, of Wejo.

Bird Global Inc. (NYSE: BRDS)

Another mobility company on the list of penny stocks to watch is one you might have seen “scooting” around your city. Bird Global offers eScooters and eBikes that anyone can rent using a Bird-connected app. Billing itself as a “micro electric vehicle company,” Bird’s suite of scooters and bikes is becoming popular among riders looking for urban travel without getting in an actual vehicle. Unfortunately, BRDS stock wasn’t such a high flyer after its IPO debut last year. Shares have gone from highs of $11.25 to lows of $0.4648 in a matter of 7 months.

Why BRDS Stock Is Moving

Earlier this month, Bird received a notice of non-compliance with the NYSE based on its low share price. The exchange requires companies to maintain a closing price of at least $1 for 30 consecutive trading days to keep the listing. Considering that the company plans to notify the NYSE by July 5th of its intention to “cure” the stock price deficiency, there could be some speculation building as the countdown begins.

Tuniu Corp. (NASDAQ: TOUR)

Travel is one of the industries taking a back seat over the last few years. Thanks to the rise of the pandemic and continued COVID restrictions, travel stocks haven’t faired as well as their market cohorts. However, the area of the industry that has remained beaten down involves companies with exposure to China’s market.

Tuniu Corp. is a prime example of the bearish sentiment for Chinese travel stocks. TOUR stock has slumped from over $2 to under $0.50 within the last year. The company offers an online leisure travel service focused on prepackaged and self-guided tours. This week, TOUR stock’s tides changed a bit, and shares have begun to rally.

[Read More] What to Know About Buying Penny Stocks on June 28th

Why TOUR Stock Is Moving

There isn’t any TOUR stock-specific news. However, broader industry information has come to light and acted as a catalyst. In particular, China has begun loosening its COVID quarantine rules. As a result, bullish sentiment has returned to the sector, prompting momentum in several travel names, including Tuniu.

JanOne Inc. (NASDAQ: JAN)

JanOne develops drugs with non-addictive and pain-relieving properties. One of its focuses is on curbing the opioid crisis. Its JAN101 platform is being developed for treating peripheral artery disease and is a catalyst behind the latest move in JAN stock today.

Why JAN Stock Is Moving

This week, JanOne announced that work was completed with Dr. Maureen Donovan at the University of Iowa. It will allow for an improved formulation of JAN101, which has been used successfully in trials for reducing pain and improving nerve function. Furthermore, JanOne expects to start manufacturing and validating processes “in the near future.”

One of the other attractive points of interest for traders is JAN stock’s float. Looking at multiple outlets, you’ll see that this figure is well below 10 million shares. In cases of low float penny stocks, volatility can play a leading role. Given the latest headline, this could be something to keep in mind heading into the rest of the week.

Endo International (NASDAQ: ENDP)

Shares of Endo International took flight this week. The specialty pharmaceutical company recently focused on developing an orthopedic product for treating osteoarthritis knee pain. It signed a deal with Taiwan Liposome to commercialize its TLC599 injectable compound, which is in Phase 3 development for osteoarthritis treatment.

[Read more] Penny Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Biotech Stocks To Watch Before July 2022

“TLC599 is fully aligned with our commitment to providing differentiated nonsurgical options to healthcare providers and their appropriate patients,” said Patrick Barry, Executive Vice President, and President, Global Commercial Operations at Endo, in a June 13th update.

Why ENDP Stock Is Moving

You won’t find anything in corporate newsfeeds if you’re looking for why ENDP stock is moving right now. However, if you dig deeper into the company’s filings, there may be something evident acting as a catalyst in the stock market today. Millennium Management LLC filed a 13G on June 27th, showing a 1.7% stake in the company. In our article Buy Penny Stocks Like Hedge Funds Do: A How-To Guide, we discussed specific forms and filings to pay attention to if you want to “follow” the money of investment firms.

A 13G pertains to “passive investors” owning less than 20% of a company’s outstanding shares. Once a “passive investor” reaches over 20% of the OS, they must start filing 13D statements.

Best Penny Stocks Today

News can be a way to find names for your penny stocks list. However, when it’s time to buy them, it’s best to dig a little deeper to determine if that news has lasting potential. Penny stocks with news experience volatility early. When it comes to follow-through, much of that comes down to the market itself. Today we looked at 5 penny stocks with news, industry-related speculation, or corporate developments. After seeing why they moved, are any on your watch list right now?

If you enjoyed this article and you’re interested in learning how to trade so you can have the best chance to profit consistently then you need to checkout this YouTube channel. CLICK HERE RIGHT NOW!!

The post Penny Stocks To Watch: Why TOUR, JAN, ENDP, BRDS & WEJO Stock Are Moving appeared first on Penny Stocks to Buy, Picks, News and Information | PennyStocks.com.

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending