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Global growth concerns send Commodity Currencies lower despite surge in oil and prices
Dollar remains strong on safe-haven flows spurred by the Israel-Hamas war Gold volatility surges the most since March Oil prices surge on disruption concerns…

- Dollar remains strong on safe-haven flows spurred by the Israel-Hamas war
- Gold volatility surges the most since March
- Oil prices surge on disruption concerns
The Canadian currency and Australian are both weaker against the greenback as fears of rising global market turmoil grow as the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates. Oftentimes a surge in commodity prices provide a boost to key countries that deal with surging commodities, but that isn’t happening here.
Oil
Crude prices are surging as the oil market will remain very tight given escalating geopolitical risks could threaten supplies and after banks continue to describe the US economy as resilient. The upcoming week will see energy traders continue to pay close attention to the Israel-Hamas war, key Chinese economic data, a possible cut by the PBOC, and several energy meetings this week. China’s Q3 GDP and September activity data is expected to show the economy is headed in the right direction. The Energy Intelligence Forum 2023 will have appearances by many oil CEOs. EU energy ministers will seek a general approach on a proposal to amend the EU’s electricity market design rules. One of the key events will be China’s Belt and Road Forum, which Russian President Putin is expected to attend.
Gold
Concerns that the Israel-Hamas war could lead to a wider war in the Middle East have sent gold prices sharply higher. Gold is seeing strong inflows as fears of a global economic slowdown grow. Demand for safe-havens are becoming more noticeable given monetary policy is restrictive enough and surging energy prices could easily kill the global outlook. High inflation and a resilient economy could point to more Fed rate hikes, but it seems the economy is finally starting to slow down. If the peak in rates is in place gold’s rebound should extend.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin remains trapped in its sub-$30,000 cage as crypto traders await a US spot Bitcoin ETF approval. Crypto volatility has been unkind to Bitcoin in Q3 and it is clear the cryptoverse is desperate for some good news. Optimism for an eventual spot bitcoin remains in place. Cathie Wood’s latest Bitcoin ETF filing provides added risk warnings and clear segregated accounts on the Bitcoin blockchain. Sentiment however has suffered a major blow over the chaos seen in fixed income, which is driving some concerns that Bitcoin might not have a major rally once the SEC grants a spot Bitcoin approval.
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Schedule for Week of October 15, 2023
The key economic reports this week are September Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.
For manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week.
—– Monday, Octo…

For manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week.
8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of -1.5, down from 1.9.
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 79.6%.
10:00 AM: The October NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 44, down from 45 in September. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.
The consensus is for 1.405 million SAAR, up from 1.283 million SAAR.
During the day: The AIA/Deltek's Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 210 thousand initial claims, up from 209 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of -6.8, up from -13.5.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.
12:00 PM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Economic Club of New York (ECNY) Luncheon, New York, New York
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for September 2023 unemployment fed federal reserve home sales real estate unemployment
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Ferrari to accept crypto payments in the US
Ferrari’s decision to accept cryptocurrency payments was driven by market demand and dealer requests, with numerous clients investing in digital currencies.
…

Ferrari’s decision to accept cryptocurrency payments was driven by market demand and dealer requests, with numerous clients investing in digital currencies.
Ferrari will accept cryptocurrency payments for its luxury sports cars in the United States due to customer demand. The carmaker also plans to accept crypto payments in Europe.
According to an Oct. 14 report from Reuters, Ferrari’s chief marketing and commercial officer, Enrico Galliera, confirmed the intentions of the luxury car brand. Ferrari’s choice to accept cryptocurrency payments was driven by market demand and dealer requests, with numerous clients, including crypto-savvy young investors, having invested in digital currencies.
Although Galliera didn’t specify the number of cars Ferrari expects to sell via crypto payments, he reportedly stated that the carmaker’s strong order portfolio is fully booked until 2025. Ferrari aims to test this expanding market to connect with potential buyers beyond its usual clientele. The luxury automaker plans to introduce cryptocurrency payments in Europe by the first quarter of 2024 and expand to other crypto-friendly regions after.
For its initial phase in the U.S., Ferrari has reportedly partnered with major cryptocurrency payment processor, BitPay. This collaboration enables transactions in Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and USD Coin (USDC).
Galliera confirmed that there will be no additional fees or surcharges when using cryptocurrency, as BitPay will promptly convert cryptocurrency payments into conventional fiat currency for Ferrari’s dealers, ensuring they are shielded from cryptocurrency price fluctuations.
BitPay will also verify the legitimacy of the digital currency, ensuring it does not originate from illicit activities, money laundering or tax evasion.
Related: Madeira announces creation of Bitcoin business hub for innovation
Many large corporations have hesitated to adopt cryptocurrencies due to their price volatility and associated transaction impracticality. Among these companies is Tesla, the electric vehicle manufacturer, which initially started accepting payments in Bitcoin in 2021. However, CEO Elon Musk suspended this payment method due to environmental concerns.
Magazine: The Truth Behind Cuba’s Bitcoin Revolution: An on-the-ground report
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Caroline Ellison wanted to step down but feared a bank run on FTX
Former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison recognized she wasn’t doing a good job months before the company filed for bankruptcy, but Sam Bankman-Fried persuaded…

Former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison recognized she wasn’t doing a good job months before the company filed for bankruptcy, but Sam Bankman-Fried persuaded her to stay.
Caroline Ellison wasn’t doing a good job leading Alameda Research in 2022, and she did not hide it. Excerpts from her personal notes shared as evidence by prosecutors in Sam Bankman-Fried’s trial revealed details about the trading firm’s struggles and its CEO’s desire to resign weeks and months before FTX collapsed.
Ellison spent over 10 hours testifying during Bankman-Fried’s trial this past week, notably entering through the front doors of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York in Manhattan, joined by her attorneys. Ellison said she had not seen Bankman-Fried since the crypto empire failed in November 2022, but their communication had eroded months before.
In April 2022, their romantic relationship ended, and Caroline started avoiding meetings with Bankman-Fried even though they still lived in the same luxurious apartment in the Bahamas. Alameda’s growing liabilities with FTX and the breakup with Bankman-Fried made her consider leaving the company altogether.
“I feel like neither [Sam] Trabucco nor I have been doing a great job of pushing on stuff,” she wrote in the document to Bankman-Fried, which was shared as evidence during her cross-examination by the former FTX CEO’s defense counsel.
One more Caroline Ellison courtroom sketch.
— Ariel Givner, Esq. (@GivnerAriel) October 11, 2023
This one featuring SBF himself! https://t.co/q3O6xqxEhl pic.twitter.com/cQJbj5V1H7
Bankman-Fried asked her to stay on, saying that her departure could create rumors about Alameda’s financial health, thus harming FTX’s credibility, so Ellison remained CEO.
Ellison joined Alameda as a trader in 2018. By 2020, she handled most of the company’s operations, while Bankman-Fried focused on his newly launched crypto exchange, FTX. In August 2021, she became co-CEO alongside Sam Trabucco, who stepped down a few months later, leaving her in charge of the company. In August 2022, Trabucco officially resigned as co-CEO.
Ellison was against creating FTX, she revealed. “I didn’t think of myself as ambitious before I started at Alameda, but I believe I became more ambitious” under Bankman-Fried’s incentive, she said.
As CEO, Ellison was in charge of handling Alameda’s crypto lenders. In mid-2022, after the Terra ecosystem failed, the company’s open-term loans stood at $1.3 billion. The market downturn drained liquidity from crypto assets, prompting Alameda’s lenders to demand loan repayments.
According to Ellison, Bankman-Fried instructed her to keep repaying creditors via Alameda’s line of credit with FTX. In other words, Alameda would use FTX’s customer assets to repay crypto lenders. At the time, its line of credit with the exchange stood at $13 billion.
As lenders demanded loan repayments and Alameda’s balance sheets, Bankman-Fried suggested Ellison use “alternative means” for presenting the company’s financials. In the following months, Ellison would create many additional versions of a balance sheet to deceive creditors.
Early in November 2022, an alternative version of Alameda’s balance sheet was leaked. Ellison was on vacation in Japan at the time, but she had to travel to FTX Hong Kong’s office to deal with the company’s crisis.
While the balance sheet data didn’t reflect the company’s reality, it was enough to spread rumors and trigger a bank run on FTX a few days later, exposing an $8 billion gap between the companies.
Having cooperated with the U.S. Department of Justice since December 2022, Ellison will soon receive her sentence regarding the seven counts of fraud and conspiracy to commit fraud she was charged with.
Magazine: Blockchain detectives — Mt. Gox collapse saw birth of Chainalysis
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