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Global Carbon Credit Market Report 2023: Rising Carbon Emissions Drives Growth

Global Carbon Credit Market Report 2023: Rising Carbon Emissions Drives Growth
PR Newswire
DUBLIN, April 19, 2023

DUBLIN, April 19, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — The “Global Carbon Credit Market: Analysis by Traded Value, Traded Volume, Segment, Project Cat…

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Global Carbon Credit Market Report 2023: Rising Carbon Emissions Drives Growth

PR Newswire

DUBLIN, April 19, 2023

DUBLIN, April 19, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The "Global Carbon Credit Market: Analysis by Traded Value, Traded Volume, Segment, Project Category, Region, Size and Trends with Impact of COVID-19 and Forecast up to 2028" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.

The global carbon credit market traded value was US$978.56 billion in 2022. The market is expected to reach US$2.68 trillion by 2028. at a CAGR of 18.23% during the forecast period of 2023-2028. 

There is increasing regulatory and stakeholder pressure on global corporations to lower emissions. These trends are driving demand for carbon credits, giving rise to two sets of markets, which could grow meaningfully in the coming decades. At present, the overall carbon market is mainly characterized by the degree of regulation, namely the regulated compliance carbon market (CCM) and the unregulated voluntary carbon market (VCM).

The CCM is more mature and has historically generated stronger mitigation actions and incentives to decarbonize the economy than the VCM. CCM most commonly takes the form of an Emissions Trading System (ETS), which is also known as a cap and trade program, the largest of which is the European Union ETS. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement also contemplates an international market that allows for voluntary cooperation between two or more countries on emissions reductions. 

Market Dynamics

Growth Drivers:

The global carbon credit market has been growing over the past few years, due to factors such as the rising carbon emission, increasing corporate efforts in carbon offsetting, increase in adoption of net zero targets, increasing demand for natural climate solutions, establishment of CORSIA, etc.

Strong price actions across the world's most liquid carbon markets put a spotlight on carbon as a barometer for global climate policy actions and as an emerging asset class.

High carbon prices are required for carbon removal forestry projects; for blue hydrogen to reach cost parity with grey hydrogen; to decarbonize the hard-to-abate sectors such as steel and cement. The longer nations defer taking action, the higher and faster carbon prices would have to rise to achieve the current climate objectives.

Challenges:

However, some challenges are impeding the growth of the market such as insufficient governance, no standard measurement of quality, etc. Since the lack of governance and unified standards make it difficult for market participants to verify the quality of a given carbon credit, it became a hurdle for market growth.

Trends:

The market is projected to grow at a fast pace during the forecast period, due to various market trends like increasing the number of VCM platforms, increasing corporate efforts in carbon offsetting, carbon as a new investment asset class, article 6 agreement redefining global carbon offset markets, etc.

The emergence of carbon credit rating agencies would help to address one of the biggest hurdles in the VCM- the ability of market actors to assess "quality". Similar to credit rating agencies, these companies use a standardized set of criteria and methodologies to compare credits across different project types.

At present, quality is being grouped bluntly using project categories, i.e. removal vs. avoidance, or reforestation vs. renewable energy, when in reality, high and poor-quality credits exist in every category. There is little correlation between price and quality in the current markets and that needs to change for the market to scale and for VCM to deliver its intended climate-positive outcomes.

Moreover, increasing the nationally determined contributions (NDC) net-zero target is also expected to further contribute to the demand for carbon credit.

For instance, EU Member States agreed on a 2030 domestic emissions target of at least 55% net reduction below 1990 levels and achieving the goal of emissions neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, South Korea pledged to reduce 2030 emissions by 40% below 2018 levels and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

According to a report by the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit and Oxford Net Zero (Taking Stock: A global assessment of net zero targets), 21% of world's largest public companies have committed to a net zero target. Increase in adoption of net zero targets are also contributing to the market growth.

Impact Analysis of COVID-19 and Way Forward

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic had the potential to shock carbon markets around the world. However, markets demonstrated remarkable resilience, first reacting rationally to lower demand through price decreases, and then returning to near-normal functioning. Compared to after the global financial crisis, ETSs have weathered the shock without major effects.

The global voluntary carbon market has experienced positive growth during the pandemic. In 2020, airlines rolled back their purchases to match lower emissions, whereas broader corporate demand for voluntary carbon offsets was increasing. Then, as the year progressed, so did the number of carbon-neutral pledges from individual companies like Amazon and Microsoft. In the post-COVID era, factors such as government support to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are anticipated to drive market growth.

Competitive Landscape

The key initiatives/ Emission Trading Systems (ETS) of the global carbon credit market are:

  • EU ETS
  • California Cap-and-Trade Program
  • Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)
  • Korea Emissions Trading System
  • UK ETS
  • China National ETS

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) represents the central pillar of the EU's policy to combat climate change and a key tool for reducing, on a cost-effective basis, GHG emissions from the regulated sectors. The system covered 36% of the total emissions of the European Economic Area (EEA) in 2020-21, encompassing activities from the power sector, manufacturing industry, and aviation (including flights from the EEA to the United Kingdom).

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is the first mandatory GHG ETS in the US and covers emissions from the power sector. The system started operating in 2009 with 10 states (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont).

The UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS) started in January 2021. Many design elements of the new system mirror those in phase 4 of the EU ETS, in which the UK had participated since 2005. The UK ETS covers energy-intensive industries, the power sector, and aviation within the UK and European Economic Area (EEA), together making up about one-third of the UK's GHG emissions.

Key Topics Covered:

1. Executive Summary

2. Introduction

3. Global Market Analysis
3.1 Global Carbon Credit Market: Traded Value Analysis
3.2 Global Carbon Credit Market: Traded Volume Analysis
3.3 Global Compliance Carbon Market: An Analysis
3.4 Global Compliance Carbon Market: Segment Analysis
3.5 Global Voluntary Carbon Market: An Analysis
3.6 Global Voluntary Carbon Market: Project Category Analysis

4. Regional Market Analysis

5. Impact of COVID-19
5.1 Impact of COVID-19 on Carbon Credit Market
5.2 Impact of COVID-19 on Carbon Prices
5.3 Investments in Green Recovery Plans

6. Market Dynamics
6.1 Growth Driver
6.1.1 Rising Carbon Emission
6.1.2 Growing Coverage of Carbon Pricing Initiatives
6.1.3 Increase in Carbon Pricing
6.1.4 Increase in Adoption of Net Zero Targets
6.1.5 Establishment of CORSIA
6.1.6 Increasing Demand for Natural Climate Solutions
6.2 Challenges
6.2.1 Insufficient Governance
6.2.2 No Standard Measurement of Quality
6.2.3 Difficulty in Mobilizing Potential Supply
6.2.4 Problems of Homogeneity, Justice, Gaming, and Knowledge
6.3 Market Trends
6.3.1 Increasing Number of Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) Platforms
6.3.2 Booming Venture Capital (VC) Deals in NBS/Carbon Removal
6.3.3 Increasing Corporates Efforts in Carbon Offsetting
6.3.4 Key Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Net-Zero Targets
6.3.5 Key Initiatives Framing the Future
6.3.6 Article 6 Agreement Redefining Global Carbon Offset Markets
6.3.7 Carbon as a New Investment Asset Class
6.3.8 Emergence of Carbon Credit Rating Agencies

7. Competitive Landscape
7.1 Emissions Trading Schemes: Key Comparison
7.2 Emissions Trading Systems: Implemented/Under Consideration

8. Initiatives/Emission Trading Systems Profiles

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/xg4rtr

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Aging at AACR Annual Meeting 2024

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging…

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March 11, 2024

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BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals. 

Credit: Impact Journals

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals. 

Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”

Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Aging team.

About Aging-US:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed and archived by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed Central, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

  • Aging X
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  • Aging YouTube
  • Aging LinkedIn
  • Aging SoundCloud
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  • Aging Reddit

Click here to subscribe to Aging publication updates.

For media inquiries, please contact media@impactjournals.com.

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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12 hours ago

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March 11, 2024

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

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March 11, 2024

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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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