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Global Call Centers Market to Reach $741.7 Billion by 2030
Global Call Centers Market to Reach $741.7 Billion by 2030
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, March 13, 2023
NEW YORK, March 13, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — The global economy is at a critical crossroads with a number of interlocking challenges and crises running in p…
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Global Call Centers Market to Reach $741.7 Billion by 2030
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, March 13, 2023
NEW YORK, March 13, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The global economy is at a critical crossroads with a number of interlocking challenges and crises running in parallel. The uncertainty around how Russia`s war on Ukraine will play out this year and the war`s role in creating global instability means that the trouble on the inflation front is not over yet. Food and fuel inflation will remain a persistent economic problem. Higher retail inflation will impact consumer confidence and spending. As governments combat inflation by raising interest rates, new job creation will slowdown and impact economic activity and growth. Lower capital expenditure is in the offing as companies go slow on investments, held back by inflation worries and weaker demand. With slower growth and high inflation, developed markets seem primed to enter into a recession. Fears of new COVID outbreaks and China's already uncertain post-pandemic path poses a real risk of the world experiencing more acute supply chain pain and manufacturing disruptions this year. Volatile financial markets, growing trade tensions, stricter regulatory environment and pressure to mainstream climate change into economic decisions will compound the complexity of challenges faced. Year 2023 is expected to be tough year for most markets, investors and consumers. Nevertheless, there is always opportunity for businesses and their leaders who can chart a path forward with resilience and adaptability.
Read the full report: https://www.reportlinker.com/p087286/?utm_source=PRN
Global Call Centers Market to Reach $741.7 Billion by 2030
In the changed post COVID-19 business landscape, the global market for Call Centers estimated at US$461.1 Billion in the year 2022, is projected to reach a revised size of US$741.7 Billion by 2030, growing at aCAGR of 6.1% over the period 2022-2030. In-House, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is projected to record 6% CAGR and reach US$566 Billion by the end of the analysis period. Taking into account the ongoing post pandemic recovery, growth in the Outsourced segment is readjusted to a revised 6.6% CAGR for the next 8-year period.
The U.S. Market is Estimated at $134.9 Billion, While China is Forecast to Grow at 5.6% CAGR
The Call Centers market in the U.S. is estimated at US$134.9 Billion in the year 2022. China, the world`s second largest economy, is forecast to reach a projected market size of US$128.6 Billion by the year 2030 trailing a CAGR of 5.6% over the analysis period 2022 to 2030. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at 5.5% and 4.4% respectively over the 2022-2030 period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 4.6% CAGR.
Select Competitors (Total 203 Featured)
- [24]7.ai, Inc.
- Alliance Data Systems, Inc.
- Alorica, Inc
- Atento
- ATOS S.A.
- BT Communications (Ireland) Limited
- Capita Customer Management Limited
- Concentrix
- Convergys Corp.,
- Entel Call Center
- Genpact
- IBEX Global
- IBM Global Process Services Pvt. Ltd
- Plusoft Informatica Ltd
- Sitel
- Sykes Enterprises, Inc.
- Tata Consultancy Services Limited
- Teleperformance SA
- West Corporation
- Wipro
Read the full report: https://www.reportlinker.com/p087286/?utm_source=PRN
I. METHODOLOGY
II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. MARKET OVERVIEW
Influencer Market Insights
World Market Trajectories
Impact of Covid-19 and a Looming Global Recession
Call Centers: A Quick Primer
Recent Market Activity
Call Centers Tap Technology to Improve Operational Efficiency &
Service Quality
Addressing the Evolving Customer Experience
Digital Transformation - Playing an Important Role
Outlook
Developing Markets Drive Growth
Outsourced Call Center Services Market
Despite Outsourcing Wave, In-House Call Centers Continue to
Remain Dominant
Offshore Call Centers: The Key Growth Vertical for Developing
World
A Brief Sketch of Major Offshore Destinations for Call Centers
Onshore Call Centers - Still in the Reckoning
Wave of Re-Shoring & Nearshoring Strategies
Right Shoring Gains Traction in Call Center Operations
Mass Market Call Centers Outnumber B2B Call Centers
Multiple Outsourced Call Centers: Order of the Day
Competition
Leading Players
Startups Spur Innovation in Call Center Industry
Spurt in Mobile Telephony: The Key Driver of Industry
Transformation Seen Over the Last Two Decades
Call Centers - Global Key Competitors Percentage Market Share
in 2021 (E)
Competitive Market Presence - Strong/Active/Niche/Trivial for
Players Worldwide in 2021 (E)
2. FOCUS ON SELECT PLAYERS
[24]7 Inc. (USA)
Alliance Data Systems, Inc. (USA)
Alorica, Inc. (USA)
Atento (Luxembourg)
ATOS S.A. (France)
BT Communications (Ireland) Limited (Ireland)
Capita Customer Management Limited (UK)
Concentrix (USA)
Convergys Corp. (USA)
Entel Call Center (Chile)
EXL Service Holdings, Inc. (USA)
Genpact Limited (Bermuda)
HCL BPO Services NI Ltd (Ireland)
IBEX Global (USA)
IBM Global Process Services Pvt. Ltd (India)
Plusoft Informatica Ltda (Brazil)
Sitel (USA)
Sykes Enterprises, Inc. (USA)
Tata Consultancy Services Limited (India)
Teleperformance SE (France)
TTEC Holdings, Inc. (USA)
West Corporation (USA)
Wipro Ltd (India)
3. MARKET TRENDS & DRIVERS
Cloud Communications Continue to Reshape Call Centers market
OmniChannel Strategy Offers Holistic Support
Unified Communications Simplify Customer Engagement
Artificial Intelligence Enhances Call Center Productivity
Industry Displays Increasing Reliance on IVR
Integration of Social Media with Call Center Operations Opens
New Possibilities
Opportunity Indicators
Sustained Increase in Importance of Self-Service
Focus Grows on Improved Contact Center Analytics
Integrating CRM with Big Data Analytics Brings in Significant
Benefits
Companies Target Multi-Skilled Employees
Increase in Remote Contact Center Agents
Building Meaningful Collaboration among Agents and the Way they
Work
Multi-Language Contact Centers - A Key Trend
From Cost Centers to Profit Centers - Call Centers Go Beyond
Service & Support Functions to Adopt Sales & Marketing
Capabilities
Virtual Agents Model Emerges as a New Profitable Approach
Hosted or Virtual Call Centers on the Rise
Improving 'Customer Experience' Turns into Core Area for Call
Centers
KPIs and Metrics Take Center Stage
Call Centers Embrace IP for Better Efficiency
CRM: A Shot in the Arm for Call Centers
Call Center Applications Diversify to Include Mobile Apps
Video Emerges as a New Channel for Call Centers
Voice/Speech Based Technologies Empower Call Center Training &
Operations
Workforce Management Solutions to the Fore
Evolving Database Technologies and Management Strategies Guide
Call Centers to Reach New Avenues
Customer Support & Sales Force Automation Dominate Software
Applications
Multi-Site Call Routing Solutions: Popular with Large Global Firms
Automatic Call Distributing (ACD) Products- From Standalone to
Open and Networked Systems
Key Issues
Growing Digital Engagement Drags Down Voice Based Customer
Interactions
Simplifying Complexities in Call Center Processes: A Key Area
of Focus
Call Centers & the Regulatory Environment
4. GLOBAL MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Table 1: World Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for Call
Centers by Geographic Region - USA, Canada, Japan, China,
Europe, Asia-Pacific and Rest of World Markets - Independent
Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2022 through
2030 and % CAGR
Table 2: World Historic Review for Call Centers by Geographic
Region - USA, Canada, Japan, China, Europe, Asia-Pacific and
Rest of World Markets - Independent Analysis of Annual Sales in
US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and % CAGR
Table 3: World 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by
Geographic Region - Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for
USA, Canada, Japan, China, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Rest of
World Markets for Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
Table 4: World Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for
In-House by Geographic Region - USA, Canada, Japan, China,
Europe, Asia-Pacific and Rest of World Markets - Independent
Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2022 through
2030 and % CAGR
Table 5: World Historic Review for In-House by Geographic
Region - USA, Canada, Japan, China, Europe, Asia-Pacific and
Rest of World Markets - Independent Analysis of Annual Sales in
US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and % CAGR
Table 6: World 16-Year Perspective for In-House by Geographic
Region - Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for USA, Canada,
Japan, China, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Rest of World for Years
2014, 2023 & 2030
Table 7: World Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for
Outsourced by Geographic Region - USA, Canada, Japan, China,
Europe, Asia-Pacific and Rest of World Markets - Independent
Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2022 through
2030 and % CAGR
Table 8: World Historic Review for Outsourced by Geographic
Region - USA, Canada, Japan, China, Europe, Asia-Pacific and
Rest of World Markets - Independent Analysis of Annual Sales in
US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and % CAGR
Table 9: World 16-Year Perspective for Outsourced by Geographic
Region - Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for USA, Canada,
Japan, China, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Rest of World for Years
2014, 2023 & 2030
Table 10: World Call Centers Market Analysis of Annual Sales in
US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2030
III. MARKET ANALYSIS
UNITED STATES
Call Centers Market Presence - Strong/Active/Niche/Trivial -
Key Competitors in the United States for 2023 (E)
Table 11: USA Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for Call
Centers by Type - In-House and Outsourced - Independent
Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for the Years 2022
through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 12: USA Historic Review for Call Centers by Type -
In-House and Outsourced Markets - Independent Analysis of
Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and %
CAGR
Table 13: USA 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by Type -
Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for In-House and Outsourced
for the Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
CANADA
Table 14: Canada Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for
Call Centers by Type - In-House and Outsourced - Independent
Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for the Years 2022
through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 15: Canada Historic Review for Call Centers by Type -
In-House and Outsourced Markets - Independent Analysis of
Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and %
CAGR
Table 16: Canada 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by Type -
Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for In-House and Outsourced
for the Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
JAPAN
Call Centers Market Presence - Strong/Active/Niche/Trivial -
Key Competitors in Japan for 2023 (E)
Table 17: Japan Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for Call
Centers by Type - In-House and Outsourced - Independent
Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for the Years 2022
through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 18: Japan Historic Review for Call Centers by Type -
In-House and Outsourced Markets - Independent Analysis of
Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and %
CAGR
Table 19: Japan 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by Type -
Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for In-House and Outsourced
for the Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
CHINA
Call Centers Market Presence - Strong/Active/Niche/Trivial -
Key Competitors in China for 2023 (E)
Table 20: China Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for Call
Centers by Type - In-House and Outsourced - Independent
Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for the Years 2022
through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 21: China Historic Review for Call Centers by Type -
In-House and Outsourced Markets - Independent Analysis of
Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and %
CAGR
Table 22: China 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by Type -
Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for In-House and Outsourced
for the Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
EUROPE
Call Centers Market Presence - Strong/Active/Niche/Trivial -
Key Competitors in Europe for 2023 (E)
Table 23: Europe Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for
Call Centers by Geographic Region - France, Germany, Italy, UK
and Rest of Europe Markets - Independent Analysis of Annual
Sales in US$ Million for Years 2022 through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 24: Europe Historic Review for Call Centers by Geographic
Region - France, Germany, Italy, UK and Rest of Europe Markets -
Independent Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years
2014 through 2021 and % CAGR
Table 25: Europe 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by
Geographic Region - Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for
France, Germany, Italy, UK and Rest of Europe Markets for Years
2014, 2023 & 2030
Table 26: Europe Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for
Call Centers by Type - In-House and Outsourced - Independent
Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for the Years 2022
through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 27: Europe Historic Review for Call Centers by Type -
In-House and Outsourced Markets - Independent Analysis of
Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and %
CAGR
Table 28: Europe 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by Type -
Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for In-House and Outsourced
for the Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
FRANCE
Call Centers Market Presence - Strong/Active/Niche/Trivial -
Key Competitors in France for 2023 (E)
Table 29: France Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for
Call Centers by Type - In-House and Outsourced - Independent
Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for the Years 2022
through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 30: France Historic Review for Call Centers by Type -
In-House and Outsourced Markets - Independent Analysis of
Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and %
CAGR
Table 31: France 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by Type -
Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for In-House and Outsourced
for the Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
GERMANY
Call Centers Market Presence - Strong/Active/Niche/Trivial -
Key Competitors in Germany for 2023 (E)
Table 32: Germany Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for
Call Centers by Type - In-House and Outsourced - Independent
Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for the Years 2022
through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 33: Germany Historic Review for Call Centers by Type -
In-House and Outsourced Markets - Independent Analysis of
Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and %
CAGR
Table 34: Germany 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by Type -
Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for In-House and
Outsourced for the Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
ITALY
Table 35: Italy Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for Call
Centers by Type - In-House and Outsourced - Independent
Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for the Years 2022
through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 36: Italy Historic Review for Call Centers by Type -
In-House and Outsourced Markets - Independent Analysis of
Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and %
CAGR
Table 37: Italy 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by Type -
Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for In-House and Outsourced
for the Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
UNITED KINGDOM
Call Centers Market Presence - Strong/Active/Niche/Trivial -
Key Competitors in the United Kingdom for 2023 (E)
Table 38: UK Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for Call
Centers by Type - In-House and Outsourced - Independent
Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for the Years 2022
through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 39: UK Historic Review for Call Centers by Type -
In-House and Outsourced Markets - Independent Analysis of
Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and %
CAGR
Table 40: UK 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by Type -
Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for In-House and Outsourced
for the Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
REST OF EUROPE
Table 41: Rest of Europe Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis
for Call Centers by Type - In-House and Outsourced -
Independent Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for the
Years 2022 through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 42: Rest of Europe Historic Review for Call Centers by
Type - In-House and Outsourced Markets - Independent Analysis
of Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and
% CAGR
Table 43: Rest of Europe 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers
by Type - Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for In-House and
Outsourced for the Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
ASIA-PACIFIC
Call Centers Market Presence - Strong/Active/Niche/Trivial -
Key Competitors in Asia-Pacific for 2023 (E)
Table 44: Asia-Pacific Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis
for Call Centers by Type - In-House and Outsourced -
Independent Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for the
Years 2022 through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 45: Asia-Pacific Historic Review for Call Centers by Type -
In-House and Outsourced Markets - Independent Analysis of
Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and %
CAGR
Table 46: Asia-Pacific 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by
Type - Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for In-House and
Outsourced for the Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
REST OF WORLD
Table 47: Rest of World Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis
for Call Centers by Type - In-House and Outsourced -
Independent Analysis of Annual Sales in US$ Million for the
Years 2022 through 2030 and % CAGR
Table 48: Rest of World Historic Review for Call Centers by
Type - In-House and Outsourced Markets - Independent Analysis
of Annual Sales in US$ Million for Years 2014 through 2021 and
% CAGR
Table 49: Rest of World 16-Year Perspective for Call Centers by
Type - Percentage Breakdown of Value Sales for In-House and
Outsourced for the Years 2014, 2023 & 2030
IV. COMPETITION
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Uncategorized
February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
unemployment pandemic unemploymentUncategorized
Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.
The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250
Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too
Total employment data
4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
- Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
- High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
- Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.
recession unemployment covid-19 fed federal reserve mortgage rates recession recovery unemploymentUncategorized
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Last month we though that the January…
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Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush.
What happened? Let's take a closer look.
On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.
Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.
Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K, a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!
Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.
In the past month the Biden department of goalseeking stuff higher before revising it lower, has revised the following data sharply lower:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 30, 2023
- Jobs
- JOLTS
- New Home sales
- Housing Starts and Permits
- Industrial Production
- PCE and core PCE
To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).
And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...
... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...
... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.
While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.
But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).
This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.
There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).
Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!
But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!
The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!
Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...
... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!
This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...
... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.
Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.
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