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Gimme Shelter: Withdrawing From The Music Industry

From “The Withdrawal Issue”, Craig Deutsch offers Bitcoin and the value-for-value creator model as a means of withdrawing from a toxic music indus…

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This article is featured in Bitcoin Magazine’s “The Withdrawal Issue”. Click here to subscribe now.

A PDF pamphlet of this article is available for download.

Music Industry Misfortune

The music industry is notorious for preying on the artists on which its existence depends. In the early days of recorded music, this exploitation started with unfavorable contracts, depriving musicians of the fruits of their labor while record labels made all the money. The mistreatment has since evolved into the Live Nation Entertainment monopoly, where the company has a nearly exclusive hold on the ticket market (thanks, Ticketmaster!) and an equally tight grasp on the event side, where the company owned at least 259 venues worldwide as of 2021, and where many of their ticketed concerts are held.

Ticketmaster has long faced the ire of musicians and die-hard fans fed up with surreptitious order processing fees. In 1994, Pearl Jam made a complaint to the Justice Department accusing the company of being a monopoly. No action was made at that time, but Ticketmaster faced and lost a similar lawsuit in 2003. The company was ordered to pay $400 million in credits to 50 million ticket buyers. This author was able to cash in about $20 for a single concert, which nearly canceled out the service fees, but didn’t even begin to cover the cost of the ticket.

In more recent news, Swifties sued Ticketmaster and Live Nation when presale tickets to Taylor Swift’s “Eras Tour” sold out instantly. They were listed for thousands of dollars on resale within minutes on the same site the original tickets were sold, prompting a Senate Judiciary hearing in January 2023. Singer and songwriter, Clyde Lawrence, explained how Live Nation Entertainment serves three roles: promoter, venue, and ticketing company. He shared, “Due to Live Nation’s control across the industry, we have practically no say or leverage in discussing these line items, nor are we afforded much transparency surrounding them”. From a ticket with a face value of $42, an artist might end up with only $6 of that sale.

Ultimately, musicians’ challenges with profitably monetizing their work has been a problem since greedy bigwigs realized they could make a buck on the backs of creatives who just wanted to hone their craft and make a respectable living.

In order to bring in money, musicians had to fit the arbitrary mold that record labels made using their industry’s influence and power to shape culture by picking what type of music would get the most airtime and send the media magnates’ message of choice. Read: “The Secret Meeting that Changed Rap Music and Destroyed a Generation”.

While artists often just want to write music and spread their tunes to as many people as possible, records, 8-tracks, cassettes, and CDs are only the tip of the iceberg of financial success. Over time, artists have had to rely more and more on touring to promote an album, sell merchandise, and make money through ticket sales. As mentioned above, ticket sales are no longer a viable source of revenue (though perhaps they never were), and record label contracts haven’t ever been a favorable agreement.

The earlier problems of the music industry are still prevalent, though less so from legacy record labels and more so from the centralization of the live music industry, exacerbated with the digitization of music through streaming platforms. In the case of Spotify, what artists receive per stream is between $0.003 to $0.005. On average, TIDAL pays out around $0.013 per stream. Music streaming platforms are not the only platforms at fault. According to Google Play Music data, music content on YouTube gets $0.00676 per stream on average.

These are not exactly eye-popping numbers and make it difficult for all but the most famous artists to earn a living. A musician who is able to get one million streams makes $5,000 from Spotify, assuming they meet the requirements for the higher-end payscale. Barely enough for a month’s rent and food. And that doesn’t consider the bands who split their profits among multiple members, writers, and producers.

But thanks to the advent of an internet-native currency, there is a brand new opportunity to completely reinvent the structure of the music industry, pairing bitcoin with digitized music.

Value-4-Value

The value-for-value model is a game-changer to monetizing creative works in a world of infinite content. It provides the viewer with the completely voluntary ability to give any amount of money directly to a content creator. With the use of the Lightning Network, micropayments of bitcoin can be sent immediately and effortlessly.

This model is different from the subscription-based structure where users have to put in a credit card and be charged on a monthly or annual basis in order to access the entire body of work across a certain publication, platform, or creator.

The story is likely familiar. You see a captivating headline for an article you’re interested in reading, but when you click the link, you need to sign up and pay for a monthly subscription in order to get past the first paragraph. Chances are you left the page without reading, but what if you could’ve accessed it with a $0.10 instantaneous payment just by scanning a QR code?

Micropayments are simply impossible with the legacy financial system. PayPal takes a fixed $0.49 fee plus a 3.49% fee of the total transaction, so it’s preposterous to attempt a $0.10 donation to creators in that way. Ignoring credit card minimums, processing fees are usually around 3%, so if you tried tipping $0.10, the artist would only be left with $0.07. The Lightning Network creates the potential for bitcoin micropayments, but this description isn’t quite aligned with the value-for-value model.

In essence, a value-for-value pay structure puts the onus of support on the person engaging with the content. The person reading, listening, watching, or using the content can make a choice to pay as much or as little as they deem appropriate. Most users won’t pay anything. Some will pay a little and some will pay a lot. This type of monetization structure has been taking off with podcasts on podcasting 2.0 apps like Fountain, which allows podcasters to receive payment directly from users who choose to send them small amounts of bitcoin on a minute-by-minute basis from their own wallet. Similarly, the Nostr (“notes and other stuff transmitted by relays”) social media protocol allows users to connect a Lightning wallet and receive “zaps” for popular posts.

Now, this idea is starting to make waves in the music streaming world as well. Wavlake was created in order to develop and push forward the standards already being used in the podcasting 2.0 model. Sam Means and Michael Rhee designed Wavlake to give musicians an opportunity to directly monetize their work in a value-for-value economy. Musicians can upload music to the platform and instantly receive direct bitcoin payments from listeners and fans. Listeners can “boost” songs by setting a rate and sending bitcoin to artists as they listen and enjoy certain sections of music that resonate with them.

According to its founders, the idea of Wavlake is to “rethink how the music business works globally and start fresh”. Their main goal is to fix the music business to put artists in charge. They think that artists should be the ones that make the money off their music and not have to do extra things just to survive.

Joe Martin is one musician that sees the value in this new type of streaming service that directly supports musicians. “These platforms are building the tools for content creators to take back control of their work in a new and unique way”, he said.

Bitcoin opens the door for micropayments, which in turn, creates new circumstances for people to send value over the internet, removing the friction of geographical borders with different local currencies. Or as Martin put it, “The coolest thing about this, apart from the no-minimum amount, is that anyone around the world with an internet connected device could have sent me value, instantly, at no cost and with final settlement”.

Musicians finally have the tools to fully own the fruits of their labor. Bitcoin equips those who use it with full sovereignty over their finances and artists are no exception. Thanks to bitcoin micropayments over the Lightning Network and a new vision for supporting creators, a direct relationship between artists, their work, and their fans is finally available to us.

Not only can fans send value directly to their favorite artists, but they can also include comments with their donations, and other fans can participate by sending value and replies to commenters. Through this system, new types of borderless communities can form around the arts.

We haven’t even begun to scratch the surface of the full range of uses and benefits of the value-for-value model in general, let alone in the music industry. When artists and fans have a direct relationship with one another, there are countless and currently unimaginable trajectories of mutual benefit for both creators and listeners. With the breakthrough of a borderless, internet-native digital currency that runs on communication networks, the possibilities are as endless as the human imagination’s desire to be heard and understood. Musicians and music lovers everywhere can finally break free from the clutches of the exploitative industry and build a new, alternative system that truly serves creators and their fans.

This article is featured in Bitcoin Magazine’s “The Withdrawal Issue”. Click here to subscribe now.

A PDF pamphlet of this article is available for download.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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