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Existing home sales are working from a historic low bar

We are working in the third calendar year of great recession lows in demand, with a population of over 335 million and over 157 million people working.

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Today, we saw existing home sales slip a bit month to month, which isn’t surprising to me as purchase application data started its positive run in November. That data line typically looks out 30-90 days for sales — it doesn’t move as fast as some people think. Since making some holiday adjustments, we have seen a seven-week positive trend in purchase apps since November. 

Today, we need context for the growth we’ll see in existing home sales in 2024. We are working in the third calendar year of great recession lows in demand, with a population of over 335 million and over 157 million people working. I always stress this because of my core belief that it’s rare in America to have existing home sales trend below 4 million after 1996. It happened in 2008 and then didn’t happen again until 2023.

We don’t have any data that shows sales are crashing from this low level: this is key when looking at the future because it does give us a place to grow sales as long as mortgage rates fall.

From NAR: Existing-home sales waned 1.0% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.78 million. Sales faded 6.2% from the previous year. The median existing-home sales price rose 4.4% from December 2022 to $382,600 – the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

Below are charts with today’s report and the trend. Remember, with median sales prices and inventory, it’s very seasonal.

Something notable about this report: Total active listings as the NAR tracks them almost broke under 1 million again. However, remember, the dive in inventory is normal at this time of the year. Our housing market tracker counts weekly active single-family listings, those homes that aren’t in the contract, and the raw available number of homes for sale. This is why the Altos Research numbers we cite are always smaller than the NAR numbers, which accounts for all home types and those in contract. Our tracker articles have a lot more details about the current weekly market and we publish those each Saturday.

From NAR: The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $382,600, an increase of 4.4% from December 2022 ($366,500). All four U.S. regions posted price increases. 

One thing about the median sales price index is that it’s showing hotter month-to-month price growth in the last few months of the year. This sounds odd to people because mortgage rates went all the way to 8%, and price growth was picking up. Just remember, the year-over-year comps were very easy because home prices were declining in the second half of 2022, so we have easier comps to work from.

From NAR: First-time buyers were responsible for 29% of sales in December; Individual investors purchased 16% of homes; All-cash sales accounted for 29% of transactions; Distressed sales represented 2% of sales; Properties typically remained on the market for 29 days.

My entire theme around the savagely unhealthy housing market is based on the premise of too many people chasing too few homes. Whenever the days on the market fall to a teenager level, nothing good happens in housing. The days on the market are also very seasonal, and even though we got close at 29, I had hoped we would be 30 days plus by now.

However, we will soon be extending the months where we see the seasonal decline, so one or two more reports will be needed to get my 30-day wish. To give you all some perspective, this data line dropped all the way to 14 days in the crazy period of COVID-19, while back in 2011, it was 105 days.

Yesterday on CNBC, I talked about the state of the housing market and how important it was that the builders’ confidence data was rising because that keeps construction workers employed and building homes. This is related to the fact that even though the apartment boom is over, single-family permits are still rising. We have a big difference in the data on single-family permits and 5-unit permits. I call it an alligator chart opening its mouth, see below.

In the CNBC interview, I stressed that we do have one positive on the inventory side of things: we are seeing new listings data growth. This is a positive for housing in 2024 as most sellers are buyers.

Overall, no surprise in the existing home sales report: We will see a demand increase in the following few reports to tie in with the purchase application data. However, the main point of this article is to make sure we all know we are working from the lowest sales levels ever when adjusting to the workforce, and we have good demographics in 2024. With that in mind, be reasonable on the growth levels we have in the future.

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One city held a mass passport-getting event

A New Orleans congressman organized a way for people to apply for their passports en masse.

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While the number of Americans who do not have a passport has dropped steadily from more than 80% in 1990 to just over 50% now, a lack of knowledge around passport requirements still keeps a significant portion of the population away from international travel.

Over the four years that passed since the start of covid-19, passport offices have also been dealing with significant backlog due to the high numbers of people who were looking to get a passport post-pandemic. 

Related: Here is why it is (still) taking forever to get a passport

To deal with these concurrent issues, the U.S. State Department recently held a mass passport-getting event in the city of New Orleans. Called the "Passport Acceptance Event," the gathering was held at a local auditorium and invited residents of Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District to complete a passport application on-site with the help of staff and government workers.

A passport case shows the seal featured on American passports.

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'Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required'

"Hey #LA02," Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr. (D-LA), whose office co-hosted the event alongside the city of New Orleans, wrote to his followers on Instagram  (META) . "My office is providing passport services at our #PassportAcceptance event. Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required."

More Travel:

The event was held on March 14 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. While it was designed for those who are already eligible for U.S. citizenship rather than as a way to help non-citizens with immigration questions, it helped those completing the application for the first time fill out forms and make sure they have the photographs and identity documents they need. The passport offices in New Orleans where one would normally have to bring already-completed forms have also been dealing with lines and would require one to book spots weeks in advance.

These are the countries with the highest-ranking passports in 2024

According to Carter Sr.'s communications team, those who submitted their passport application at the event also received expedited processing of two to three weeks (according to the State Department's website, times for regular processing are currently six to eight weeks).

While Carter Sr.'s office has not released the numbers of people who applied for a passport on March 14, photos from the event show that many took advantage of the opportunity to apply for a passport in a group setting and get expedited processing.

Every couple of months, a new ranking agency puts together a list of the most and least powerful passports in the world based on factors such as visa-free travel and opportunities for cross-border business.

In January, global citizenship and financial advisory firm Arton Capital identified United Arab Emirates as having the most powerful passport in 2024. While the United States topped the list of one such ranking in 2014, worsening relations with a number of countries as well as stricter immigration rules even as other countries have taken strides to create opportunities for investors and digital nomads caused the American passport to slip in recent years.

A UAE passport grants holders visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 180 of the world’s 198 countries (this calculation includes disputed territories such as Kosovo and Western Sahara) while Americans currently have the same access to 151 countries.

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Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Several major fast-food chains recently have struggled to keep restaurants open.

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Competition in the fast-food space has been brutal as operators deal with inflation, consumers who are worried about the economy and their jobs and, in recent months, the falling cost of eating at home. 

Add in that many fast-food chains took on more debt during the covid pandemic and that labor costs are rising, and you have a perfect storm of problems. 

It's a situation where Restaurant Brands International (QSR) has suffered as much as any company.  

Related: Wendy's menu drops a fan favorite item, adds something new

Three major Burger King franchise operators filed for bankruptcy in 2023, and the chain saw hundreds of stores close. It also saw multiple Popeyes franchisees move into bankruptcy, with dozens of locations closing.

RBI also stepped in and purchased one of its key franchisees.

"Carrols is the largest Burger King franchisee in the United States today, operating 1,022 Burger King restaurants in 23 states that generated approximately $1.8 billion of system sales during the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2023," RBI said in a news release. Carrols also owns and operates 60 Popeyes restaurants in six states." 

The multichain company made the move after two of its large franchisees, Premier Kings and Meridian, saw multiple locations not purchased when they reached auction after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. In that case, RBI bought select locations but allowed others to close.

Burger King lost hundreds of restaurants in 2023.

Image source: Chen Jianli/Xinhua via Getty

Another fast-food chain faces bankruptcy problems

Bojangles may not be as big a name as Burger King or Popeye's, but it's a popular chain with more than 800 restaurants in eight states.

"Bojangles is a Carolina-born restaurant chain specializing in craveable Southern chicken, biscuits and tea made fresh daily from real recipes, and with a friendly smile," the chain says on its website. "Founded in 1977 as a single location in Charlotte, our beloved brand continues to grow nationwide."

Like RBI, Bojangles uses a franchise model, which makes it dependent on the financial health of its operators. The company ultimately saw all its Maryland locations close due to the financial situation of one of its franchisees.

Unlike. RBI, Bojangles is not public — it was taken private by Durational Capital Management LP and Jordan Co. in 2018 — which means the company does not disclose its financial information to the public. 

That makes it hard to know whether overall softness for the brand contributed to the chain seeing its five Maryland locations after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

Bojangles has a messy bankruptcy situation

Even though the locations still appear on the Bojangles website, they have been shuttered since late 2023. The locations were operated by Salim Kakakhail and Yavir Akbar Durranni. The partners operated under a variety of LLCs, including ABS Network, according to local news channel WUSA9

The station reported that the owners face a state investigation over complaints of wage theft and fraudulent W2s. In November Durranni and ABS Network filed for bankruptcy in New Jersey, WUSA9 reported.

"Not only do former employees say these men owe them money, WUSA9 learned the former owners owe the state, too, and have over $69,000 in back property taxes."

Former employees also say that the restaurant would regularly purchase fried chicken from Popeyes and Safeway when it ran out in their stores, the station reported. 

Bojangles sent the station a comment on the situation.

"The franchisee is no longer in the Bojangles system," the company said. "However, it is important to note in your coverage that franchisees are independent business owners who are licensed to operate a brand but have autonomy over many aspects of their business, including hiring employees and payroll responsibilities."

Kakakhail and Durranni did not respond to multiple requests for comment from WUSA9.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 p…

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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.3% below the average from 1972 to 2022.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.


Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 102.3. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

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