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Easing into Monday Morning

Financial markets finished Friday on a civilised note, after what was a very choppy week. US data saw equity markets move modestly back into their cyclical rotation happy place, while currency markets finished with some US dollar short-covering despite…

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Financial markets finished Friday on a civilised note, after what was a very choppy week. US data saw equity markets move modestly back into their cyclical rotation happy place, while currency markets finished with some US dollar short-covering despite US 30-year yields falling slightly. Precious metals held steady while oil rose on Gulf of Mexico hurricane concerns. In the case of the latter, a glance at the US Hurricane Centre website this morning suggests that will be a storm in a teacup.

China keeps commodities under pressure

Commodities remain under some pressure as China continues to make noises about speculative excesses driving up prices. They have raised Dahlian futures margins and fiddled with VAT on imported ores, but in the bigger picture, raw materials remain not far from their recent highs. Given that China is a large net importer of ores, there is a limit to what they will be able to achieve in the medium to long term. However, in the short-term, their rumblings seem to be having the desired effect.

President Biden has trimmed 500 billion or so dollars of his infrastructure package to try and make it more palatable for Republicans in the hope of gaining bi-partisan support. The trouble is that Democrats and Republicans seem to have very different ideas about what infrastructure actually is. The Democrats’ definition includes societal programmes and roads and bridges, while the Republicans are sticking with tarmac. It looks increasingly likely the Democrats will have to try and go it alone on this programme, and if it stalls in Congress, that may end up doing China’s commodity price work for them. Who says US/Sino relations were at an all-time low?

The circus we know as the virtual currency space continues to snatch headlines. Elon Musk tweeted he remained a believer in cryptos, a handy attitude to have when you are long USD1.5 billion of them around these levels, with pesky individuals known as shareholders to answer to. However, China once again showed who was the big fish, signalling a clampdown on crypto-miners. While I am not sure we’ve seen the end of “Peak-Musk,” we did have another roller-coaster weekend of trading, with bitcoin slumping from US38,000.00 to US31,000.00 before recovering to US35,600.00 as of this morning. Once again, I reiterate, governmental/regulatory risk now represents an existential threat to the virtual currency space.  A clean break ofUS30,000.00 should see another capitulation trade and I can’t see that loss of digital wealth not spilling over into other asset classes, at least temporarily.

On the subject of equities, the Nasdaq spent last week gyrating each side of its 100-day moving average (DMA). Notably, it tested its rising support line from March 2020 a number of times but failed to reclaim it. It needs to reclaim 13,600.00 for bulls to breath more deeply once again, and preferably break above 14,100.00. The risks are still tilted towards a retest of support around 12,900.00 and then its 200-DMA at 12,600.00. That same Mar 2020 support line draws ever closer to the S&P 500 as well, today around 4080.00. The S&P 500 tested and held rising support twice last week, but failure of 4080.00 will be an ominous development. The Dow Jones, riding high on cyclical rotation, remains well clear of its similar support line.

The data calendar is thin in Asia today. Singapore releases its Inflation and Core Inflation Rates for April today, expected to rise to 2.0% and 0.90% respectively YoY. Taiwan should release an impressive data-set of Unemployment, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, which will be flattered by YoY effects. We also receive Thailand Manufacturing, South Korean Consumer Sentiment plus their Manufacturing BSI tomorrow with China Industrial Profits Thursday and Malaysian Trade on Friday. The data should both reinforce the recovery theory and also that prices are rising. However, in the case of Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia, the street will remain fixated on their escalating Covid-19 situations with Malaysia bringing in national work-from-home restrictions over the weekend as cases continue to spike. That will dampen enthusiasm for ASEAN assets until an improvement is seen.

We have three central bank decisions in the region this week. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of Indonesia tomorrow. Rates will remain unchanged with Indonesia having no room to move. With USD/IDR stuck above 14,000.00, it would be a huge surprise for BI to push its luck and cut again. Indonesia has dodged the Covid-19 bullets assailing much of Asia at the moment. The return of the country from the Eid holidays could change that balance and will likely also stay BI’s hand in case more fuel is needed later. The Bank of Korea will leave its base rate unchanged as well, but I consider it the most likely of the three to start talking about a taper later in the year as domestic demand is recovering now as well. My base case though is they will not want to see the Won shoot higher and will hold steady.

Much of Europe is on holiday today, which will mute activity in the Asian afternoon session. German GSP and IFO Business Sentiment tomorrow will be of passing interest, if only to reinforce that Europe’s recovery is picking up momentum as those vaccines roll out.  US Durable Goods and est. Q2 GDP on Thursday will give markets an insight into the trajectory of the US recovery and inflationary pressures. That story needs some fresh momentum after a series of data prints that haven’t reinforced the narrative. On that basis, next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls could well be the most important of the year, coming before a live FOMC meeting in June and after the severe disappointment of the May data.

Overall, the week’s data calendar doesn’t have a lot for financial markets to sink their teeth into. Next week, that will all change. That probably means we have another week of headless chicken financial markets ahead of us. Hang on for the intra-day volatility and sentiment swings. The Biden infrastructure/remake America package is starting to find some headlines again and may well be what drives direction this week. Cryptos may need Elon Musk to jump out of phone boxes in a Superman costume and tweet this week.

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Key shipping company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

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The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Key shipping company files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

Published

on

The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Tight inventory and frustrated buyers challenge agents in Virginia

With inventory a little more than half of what it was pre-pandemic, agents are struggling to find homes for clients in Virginia.

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No matter where you are in the state, real estate agents in Virginia are facing low inventory conditions that are creating frustrating scenarios for their buyers.

“I think people are getting used to the interest rates where they are now, but there is just a huge lack of inventory,” said Chelsea Newcomb, a RE/MAX Realty Specialists agent based in Charlottesville. “I have buyers that are looking, but to find a house that you love enough to pay a high price for — and to be at over a 6.5% interest rate — it’s just a little bit harder to find something.”

Newcomb said that interest rates and higher prices, which have risen by more than $100,000 since March 2020, according to data from Altos Research, have caused her clients to be pickier when selecting a home.

“When rates and prices were lower, people were more willing to compromise,” Newcomb said.

Out in Wise, Virginia, near the westernmost tip of the state, RE/MAX Cavaliers agent Brett Tiller and his clients are also struggling to find suitable properties.

“The thing that really stands out, especially compared to two years ago, is the lack of quality listings,” Tiller said. “The slightly more upscale single-family listings for move-up buyers with children looking for their forever home just aren’t coming on the market right now, and demand is still very high.”

Statewide, Virginia had a 90-day average of 8,068 active single-family listings as of March 8, 2024, down from 14,471 single-family listings in early March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Altos Research. That represents a decrease of 44%.

Virginia-Inventory-Line-Chart-Virginia-90-day-Single-Family

In Newcomb’s base metro area of Charlottesville, there were an average of only 277 active single-family listings during the same recent 90-day period, compared to 892 at the onset of the pandemic. In Wise County, there were only 56 listings.

Due to the demand from move-up buyers in Tiller’s area, the average days on market for homes with a median price of roughly $190,000 was just 17 days as of early March 2024.

“For the right home, which is rare to find right now, we are still seeing multiple offers,” Tiller said. “The demand is the same right now as it was during the heart of the pandemic.”

According to Tiller, the tight inventory has caused homebuyers to spend up to six months searching for their new property, roughly double the time it took prior to the pandemic.

For Matt Salway in the Virginia Beach metro area, the tight inventory conditions are creating a rather hot market.

“Depending on where you are in the area, your listing could have 15 offers in two days,” the agent for Iron Valley Real Estate Hampton Roads | Virginia Beach said. “It has been crazy competition for most of Virginia Beach, and Norfolk is pretty hot too, especially for anything under $400,000.”

According to Altos Research, the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News housing market had a seven-day average Market Action Index score of 52.44 as of March 14, making it the seventh hottest housing market in the country. Altos considers any Market Action Index score above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market.

Virginia-Beach-Metro-Area-Market-Action-Index-Line-Chart-Virginia-Beach-Norfolk-Newport-News-VA-NC-90-day-Single-Family

Further up the coastline on the vacation destination of Chincoteague Island, Long & Foster agent Meghan O. Clarkson is also seeing a decent amount of competition despite higher prices and interest rates.

“People are taking their time to actually come see things now instead of buying site unseen, and occasionally we see some seller concessions, but the traffic and the demand is still there; you might just work a little longer with people because we don’t have anything for sale,” Clarkson said.

“I’m busy and constantly have appointments, but the underlying frenzy from the height of the pandemic has gone away, but I think it is because we have just gotten used to it.”

While much of the demand that Clarkson’s market faces is for vacation homes and from retirees looking for a scenic spot to retire, a large portion of the demand in Salway’s market comes from military personnel and civilians working under government contracts.

“We have over a dozen military bases here, plus a bunch of shipyards, so the closer you get to all of those bases, the easier it is to sell a home and the faster the sale happens,” Salway said.

Due to this, Salway said that existing-home inventory typically does not come on the market unless an employment contract ends or the owner is reassigned to a different base, which is currently contributing to the tight inventory situation in his market.

Things are a bit different for Tiller and Newcomb, who are seeing a decent number of buyers from other, more expensive parts of the state.

“One of the crazy things about Louisa and Goochland, which are kind of like suburbs on the western side of Richmond, is that they are growing like crazy,” Newcomb said. “A lot of people are coming in from Northern Virginia because they can work remotely now.”

With a Market Action Index score of 50, it is easy to see why people are leaving the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria market for the Charlottesville market, which has an index score of 41.

In addition, the 90-day average median list price in Charlottesville is $585,000 compared to $729,900 in the D.C. area, which Newcomb said is also luring many Virginia homebuyers to move further south.

Median-Price-D.C.-vs.-Charlottesville-Line-Chart-90-day-Single-Family

“They are very accustomed to higher prices, so they are super impressed with the prices we offer here in the central Virginia area,” Newcomb said.

For local buyers, Newcomb said this means they are frequently being outbid or outpriced.

“A couple who is local to the area and has been here their whole life, they are just now starting to get their mind wrapped around the fact that you can’t get a house for $200,000 anymore,” Newcomb said.

As the year heads closer to spring, triggering the start of the prime homebuying season, agents in Virginia feel optimistic about the market.

“We are seeing seasonal trends like we did up through 2019,” Clarkson said. “The market kind of soft launched around President’s Day and it is still building, but I expect it to pick right back up and be in full swing by Easter like it always used to.”

But while they are confident in demand, questions still remain about whether there will be enough inventory to support even more homebuyers entering the market.

“I have a lot of buyers starting to come off the sidelines, but in my office, I also have a lot of people who are going to list their house in the next two to three weeks now that the weather is starting to break,” Newcomb said. “I think we are going to have a good spring and summer.”

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