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Earnings Improve, But Beware Of Trojan Horses

Earnings Improve, But Beware Of Trojan Horses

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Since October 2022, the stock market…

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Earnings Improve, But Beware Of Trojan Horses

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Since October 2022, the stock market has traded consistently higher as earnings improved. With the first quarter earnings season behind us and the second quarter approaching, will earnings improve further? In 2021 and 2022, we wrote several articles discussing why analysts’ estimates were overly optimistic. As we head further into 2023, are analysts again becoming overly optimistic?

According to FactSet, with the vast majority reporting:

“78% have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate, which is above the 10-year average of 73%. It is also the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since Q3 2021 (82%). In aggregate, earnings have exceeded estimates by 6.5%, which is above the 10-year average of 6.4%. It is also the highest surprise percentage reported by S&P 500 companies since Q4 2021 (8.1%).

Of course, the reason for the high beat rate, as is always the case, is due to the sharp downward revisions in analysts’ estimates as the reporting period begins. The chart below shows the estimate changes for the first quarter of 2023 from February 2022, when analysts provided their first estimates.

This is why we call it “Millennial Earnings Season.” Wall Street continuously lowers estimates as the reporting period approaches so “everyone gets a trophy.” An easy way to see this is the number of companies beating estimates each quarter, regardless of economic and financial conditions. Since 2000, roughly 70% of companies regularly beat estimates by 5%. Again, that number would be lower if analysts were held to their original estimates.

Analysts remain optimistic about earnings even with economic growth weakening as inflation increases, reduced liquidity, and declining profit margins. As shown above, analysts expect the first quarter of 2023 will mark the bottom for the earnings decline, and growth will accelerate into year-end. Again, this is despite the Fed rate hikes and tighter bank lending standards that will act to slow economic growth.

The problem with these expectations is the detachment of earnings estimates above the long-term growth trend.

That deviation from the long-term growth trend is shown more clearly in the following chart. The only two previous periods with similar deviations are the “Financial Crisis” and the “Dot.com” bubble.

Given that earnings are the byproduct of economic growth, the sustainability of record-high earnings and corporate profit margins is problematic. As we discussed in “Capitalism Is Broken:”

“With the economy shut down and an inorganic surge in demand due to “free money,” the selling prices of a restricted supply of goods rose. The basic economic function of supply and demand proves capitalism is functioning properly. Furthermore, as shown, corporate profits surged with labor costs greatly reduced due to the shutdown and higher prices due to artificially stimulated demand.”

Of course, with supply chains functioning and inventories rebuilt, profit margins have started their inevitable reversion.

The Reversion To The Mean

So, what happens next? If we assume the combination of a shuttered economy, no supply, and massive rounds of fiscal stimulus fostered the surge in corporate earnings and profits, can earnings improve without those supports?

Over the next few years, the environment will look different than in the past.

  1. The economy is returning to a slow growth environment with a risk of recession.

  2. Inflation is falling, meaning less pricing power for corporations.

  3. No artificial stimulus to support demand.

  4. Over the last two years, the pull forward of consumption will now drag on future demand.

  5. Interest rates are substantially higher, impacting consumption.

  6. Consumers have sharply reduced savings and higher debt.

  7. Previous inventory droughts are now surpluses.

Notably, this reversion of activity will become exacerbated by the “void” created by pulling forward consumption from future years.

“We have previously noted an inherent problem with ongoing monetary interventions. Notably, the fiscal policies implemented post the pandemic-driven economic shutdown created a surge in demand and unprecedented corporate earnings.”

As shown below, the surge in the M2 money supply is now over. Without further stimulus, earnings should revert to economically sustainable levels.

While the media often states that “stocks are not the economy,” economic activity creates corporate revenues and earnings. As such, stocks can not grow faster than the economy over long periods.

This is important to investors due to the coming impact on “valuations.”

Valuations Remain A Risk

The problem with forward earnings should be obvious. Given that forward earnings estimates are almost always wrong, such means that investors overpay for investments. As should be obvious, overpaying for an investment today leads to lower future returns.

Even if earnings improve, valuations remain historically expensive on both a trailing and forward basis. (Notice the significant divergences in valuations during recessionary periods as adjusted earnings do NOT reflect what is occurring with actual earnings.)

Most companies report “operating” earnings which obfuscate profitability by excluding all the “bad stuff.” A significant divergence exists between operating (or adjusted) and GAAP earnings. When a variation of that magnitude occurs, you must question the “quality” of earnings.

The chart below uses GAAP earnings. If we assume current earnings are correct, then such leaves the market trading above 21x earnings. (That valuation level remains near previous bull market peak valuations.)

Since markets are already trading well above historical valuation ranges, such suggests that outcomes will likely not be as “bullish” as many currently expect.

Market Vs. Profits

It isn’t just the economic data that historically correlates with markets. Earnings and profits also correlate with markets over the long term due to their dependency on economic growth. Earnings can not live in isolation from the economy.

It would be best if you didn’t dismiss the fact markets can and do, deviate from long-term earnings. Historically, such deviations don’t work well for overly “bullish” investors. The correlation is more evident in the market versus corporate profits to GDP ratio.

Why profits? Because “profits” are what gets reported to the IRS for tax purposes and are much less subject to manipulation than “earnings.”

We can see the same excess when comparing cumulative price growth to GAAP earnings growth.

With correlations at 90%, the relationship between economic growth, earnings, and corporate profits should be evident. Hence, neither should the eventual reversion in both series.

Trojan Horses

The hope, as always, is that earnings will rise to justify the market’s overvaluation. However, when earnings are rising, so are the markets.

Most importantly, analysts have a long and sordid history of being overly bullish on expectations of growth which fall well short. Such is particularly the case today. Much of the economic and earnings growth was not organic. Instead, it was from the flood of stimulus into the economy, which is now evaporating.

Overpaying for assets has never worked out well for investors.

With the Federal Reserve intent on slowing economic growth to quell inflation, it is only logical earnings will decline. Prices must accommodate lower earnings by reducing current valuation multiples if such is the case.

When it comes to analysts’ estimates, always remain wary of “Greeks bearing gifts.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/09/2023 - 08:25

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One city held a mass passport-getting event

A New Orleans congressman organized a way for people to apply for their passports en masse.

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While the number of Americans who do not have a passport has dropped steadily from more than 80% in 1990 to just over 50% now, a lack of knowledge around passport requirements still keeps a significant portion of the population away from international travel.

Over the four years that passed since the start of covid-19, passport offices have also been dealing with significant backlog due to the high numbers of people who were looking to get a passport post-pandemic. 

Related: Here is why it is (still) taking forever to get a passport

To deal with these concurrent issues, the U.S. State Department recently held a mass passport-getting event in the city of New Orleans. Called the "Passport Acceptance Event," the gathering was held at a local auditorium and invited residents of Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District to complete a passport application on-site with the help of staff and government workers.

A passport case shows the seal featured on American passports.

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'Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required'

"Hey #LA02," Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr. (D-LA), whose office co-hosted the event alongside the city of New Orleans, wrote to his followers on Instagram  (META) . "My office is providing passport services at our #PassportAcceptance event. Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required."

More Travel:

The event was held on March 14 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. While it was designed for those who are already eligible for U.S. citizenship rather than as a way to help non-citizens with immigration questions, it helped those completing the application for the first time fill out forms and make sure they have the photographs and identity documents they need. The passport offices in New Orleans where one would normally have to bring already-completed forms have also been dealing with lines and would require one to book spots weeks in advance.

These are the countries with the highest-ranking passports in 2024

According to Carter Sr.'s communications team, those who submitted their passport application at the event also received expedited processing of two to three weeks (according to the State Department's website, times for regular processing are currently six to eight weeks).

While Carter Sr.'s office has not released the numbers of people who applied for a passport on March 14, photos from the event show that many took advantage of the opportunity to apply for a passport in a group setting and get expedited processing.

Every couple of months, a new ranking agency puts together a list of the most and least powerful passports in the world based on factors such as visa-free travel and opportunities for cross-border business.

In January, global citizenship and financial advisory firm Arton Capital identified United Arab Emirates as having the most powerful passport in 2024. While the United States topped the list of one such ranking in 2014, worsening relations with a number of countries as well as stricter immigration rules even as other countries have taken strides to create opportunities for investors and digital nomads caused the American passport to slip in recent years.

A UAE passport grants holders visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 180 of the world’s 198 countries (this calculation includes disputed territories such as Kosovo and Western Sahara) while Americans currently have the same access to 151 countries.

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Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Several major fast-food chains recently have struggled to keep restaurants open.

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Competition in the fast-food space has been brutal as operators deal with inflation, consumers who are worried about the economy and their jobs and, in recent months, the falling cost of eating at home. 

Add in that many fast-food chains took on more debt during the covid pandemic and that labor costs are rising, and you have a perfect storm of problems. 

It's a situation where Restaurant Brands International (QSR) has suffered as much as any company.  

Related: Wendy's menu drops a fan favorite item, adds something new

Three major Burger King franchise operators filed for bankruptcy in 2023, and the chain saw hundreds of stores close. It also saw multiple Popeyes franchisees move into bankruptcy, with dozens of locations closing.

RBI also stepped in and purchased one of its key franchisees.

"Carrols is the largest Burger King franchisee in the United States today, operating 1,022 Burger King restaurants in 23 states that generated approximately $1.8 billion of system sales during the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2023," RBI said in a news release. Carrols also owns and operates 60 Popeyes restaurants in six states." 

The multichain company made the move after two of its large franchisees, Premier Kings and Meridian, saw multiple locations not purchased when they reached auction after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. In that case, RBI bought select locations but allowed others to close.

Burger King lost hundreds of restaurants in 2023.

Image source: Chen Jianli/Xinhua via Getty

Another fast-food chain faces bankruptcy problems

Bojangles may not be as big a name as Burger King or Popeye's, but it's a popular chain with more than 800 restaurants in eight states.

"Bojangles is a Carolina-born restaurant chain specializing in craveable Southern chicken, biscuits and tea made fresh daily from real recipes, and with a friendly smile," the chain says on its website. "Founded in 1977 as a single location in Charlotte, our beloved brand continues to grow nationwide."

Like RBI, Bojangles uses a franchise model, which makes it dependent on the financial health of its operators. The company ultimately saw all its Maryland locations close due to the financial situation of one of its franchisees.

Unlike. RBI, Bojangles is not public — it was taken private by Durational Capital Management LP and Jordan Co. in 2018 — which means the company does not disclose its financial information to the public. 

That makes it hard to know whether overall softness for the brand contributed to the chain seeing its five Maryland locations after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

Bojangles has a messy bankruptcy situation

Even though the locations still appear on the Bojangles website, they have been shuttered since late 2023. The locations were operated by Salim Kakakhail and Yavir Akbar Durranni. The partners operated under a variety of LLCs, including ABS Network, according to local news channel WUSA9

The station reported that the owners face a state investigation over complaints of wage theft and fraudulent W2s. In November Durranni and ABS Network filed for bankruptcy in New Jersey, WUSA9 reported.

"Not only do former employees say these men owe them money, WUSA9 learned the former owners owe the state, too, and have over $69,000 in back property taxes."

Former employees also say that the restaurant would regularly purchase fried chicken from Popeyes and Safeway when it ran out in their stores, the station reported. 

Bojangles sent the station a comment on the situation.

"The franchisee is no longer in the Bojangles system," the company said. "However, it is important to note in your coverage that franchisees are independent business owners who are licensed to operate a brand but have autonomy over many aspects of their business, including hiring employees and payroll responsibilities."

Kakakhail and Durranni did not respond to multiple requests for comment from WUSA9.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 p…

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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.3% below the average from 1972 to 2022.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.


Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 102.3. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

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