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Don’t wait on wage growth—the Fed should cut rates at this week’s meeting

Over the past six months, core inflation has risen exactly in line with the Federal Reserve’s long-run 2% inflation target. When this key measure of…

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Over the past six months, core inflation has risen exactly in line with the Federal Reserve’s long-run 2% inflation target. When this key measure of inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) is neither above nor below this target, this is a good sign that the Fed’s policy should be roughly neutral—aiming to neither increase nor depress economic activity.

Yet Fed interest rate policy today is nowhere near neutral—instead it is putting a stiff drag on potential growth. The Fed’s main policy instrument—the federal funds rate—stands between 5.25 and 5.5%, its highest level since at least the business cycle peak of 2007 (and maybe even the peak of 2000). There are a lot of debates among economists about the correct “neutral” level of interest rates in the economy (and even debates about whether it exists or is a useful guide to policy at all), but nobody thinks today’s rates are even close to neutral. Instead, interest rates closer to 2.5-3% are likely needed to keep monetary policy from continuing to threaten growth. (Rates lower than this would likely start providing some stimulus to the economy, which does not seem needed at the moment.)

Given that inflation has been brought all the way back down to the Fed’s target, further economic cooling is no longer needed, and the Fed should move quickly to a more neutral stance.

The Fed’s own summary of projections predicts that the federal funds rate will be a full percentage point lower by the end of 2024. Some private sector forecasters have predicted more aggressive rate cutting. Nearly all these forecasts assume these cuts could begin at the Fed’s March meeting, not this week. But if we’re already at the inflation target, why wait to cut? Every month with interest rates at elevated levels that cool growth is a month where the Fed flirts with overdoing their fight against inflation and dealing a bad blow to the economic expansion. When inflation was running above the Fed’s target, there was some rationale for this (not very good ones, but some), but this rationale is now gone, and the Fed should act appropriately.

Some have argued that today’s pace of wage growth is too fast to be consistent with the Fed’s price inflation target over the long run, hence the Fed needs to wait until there is further cooling of wage growth before cutting rates. This is a bad diagnosis. Today’s pace of wage growth is perfectly appropriate given the economic context, and the Fed shouldn’t wait for wage growth to return to pre-pandemic levels before pulling rates back down.

Given the Fed’s 2% inflation target, wages can rise by 2% plus the rate of productivity growth without putting any upward pressure on inflation. Productivity growth is a measure of how much workers produce in an hour of work. If it rises by 1%, this means every hour of work is generating 1% more output, and hence the price of this output can fall by 1% even with wages constant. The pace of productivity growth is hard to confidently assess in real-time, but if one assumes a long-run average of 1.5% will hold going forward, then wage growth can be 3.5% annually while putting no upward pressure on a 2% inflation target. In the last quarter of 2023, average hourly earnings for all workers rose at a 3.7% rate.

Besides being already awfully close to an appropriate long-run wage target, the 3.7% growth rate in the fourth quarter is almost a full percentage point slower than the pace of wage growth a year ago. Wage growth is not some rigid outlier that is not adjusting even as the rest of the economy does—it is moving quickly back to the pre-pandemic normal along with prices.

Further, to the degree that we do have some real-time data on productivity growth, it has shown a remarkable surge in the past year. In the third quarter of 2022, measured productivity had shrunk by 1.7% over the previous year. In the third quarter of 2023, it had risen by 2.3% over the past year. This is an enormous positive swing—and preliminary data indicate strongly that productivity growth was also very strong in the last quarter of 2023. This means that even while productivity growth was creating a lot more “room” for wage growth over the past year, wage growth decelerated. This further means that pressure on prices coming from labor market costs (the combined effects of wage growth and productivity growth) has relented a lot in the past year—and that pressure never really was a big deal in the first place, as most price inflation came from influences outside the labor market.

Finally, it is worth noting that the labor share of income in the corporate sector remains significantly lower than it was pre-pandemic (when it is measured properly). Figure A below shows that the labor share dropped from 75.5% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 73.7% today. There is every reason to think that this lost labor share can (and should) eventually claw back if strong labor markets are allowed to continue in a context of normalizing inflation. This also means that firms still have abnormally high profit margins today. If these margins move closer back to their 2019 levels, this could allow continued wage growth without inflationary pressures.

The “shock absorbers” of accelerating productivity growth and a potential rise in the labor share of income should provide the Fed more than enough comfort to start cutting interest rates, even with wage growth running a bit faster than it did pre-pandemic. The job is essentially done on price inflation, and the risks of damaging the expansion rise every month that interest rates remain high. There is no need to wait on wage growth to fully normalize before the Fed starts reducing these recession risks.

Figure A

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One city held a mass passport-getting event

A New Orleans congressman organized a way for people to apply for their passports en masse.

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While the number of Americans who do not have a passport has dropped steadily from more than 80% in 1990 to just over 50% now, a lack of knowledge around passport requirements still keeps a significant portion of the population away from international travel.

Over the four years that passed since the start of covid-19, passport offices have also been dealing with significant backlog due to the high numbers of people who were looking to get a passport post-pandemic. 

Related: Here is why it is (still) taking forever to get a passport

To deal with these concurrent issues, the U.S. State Department recently held a mass passport-getting event in the city of New Orleans. Called the "Passport Acceptance Event," the gathering was held at a local auditorium and invited residents of Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District to complete a passport application on-site with the help of staff and government workers.

A passport case shows the seal featured on American passports.

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'Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required'

"Hey #LA02," Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr. (D-LA), whose office co-hosted the event alongside the city of New Orleans, wrote to his followers on Instagram  (META) . "My office is providing passport services at our #PassportAcceptance event. Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required."

More Travel:

The event was held on March 14 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. While it was designed for those who are already eligible for U.S. citizenship rather than as a way to help non-citizens with immigration questions, it helped those completing the application for the first time fill out forms and make sure they have the photographs and identity documents they need. The passport offices in New Orleans where one would normally have to bring already-completed forms have also been dealing with lines and would require one to book spots weeks in advance.

These are the countries with the highest-ranking passports in 2024

According to Carter Sr.'s communications team, those who submitted their passport application at the event also received expedited processing of two to three weeks (according to the State Department's website, times for regular processing are currently six to eight weeks).

While Carter Sr.'s office has not released the numbers of people who applied for a passport on March 14, photos from the event show that many took advantage of the opportunity to apply for a passport in a group setting and get expedited processing.

Every couple of months, a new ranking agency puts together a list of the most and least powerful passports in the world based on factors such as visa-free travel and opportunities for cross-border business.

In January, global citizenship and financial advisory firm Arton Capital identified United Arab Emirates as having the most powerful passport in 2024. While the United States topped the list of one such ranking in 2014, worsening relations with a number of countries as well as stricter immigration rules even as other countries have taken strides to create opportunities for investors and digital nomads caused the American passport to slip in recent years.

A UAE passport grants holders visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 180 of the world’s 198 countries (this calculation includes disputed territories such as Kosovo and Western Sahara) while Americans currently have the same access to 151 countries.

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Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Several major fast-food chains recently have struggled to keep restaurants open.

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Competition in the fast-food space has been brutal as operators deal with inflation, consumers who are worried about the economy and their jobs and, in recent months, the falling cost of eating at home. 

Add in that many fast-food chains took on more debt during the covid pandemic and that labor costs are rising, and you have a perfect storm of problems. 

It's a situation where Restaurant Brands International (QSR) has suffered as much as any company.  

Related: Wendy's menu drops a fan favorite item, adds something new

Three major Burger King franchise operators filed for bankruptcy in 2023, and the chain saw hundreds of stores close. It also saw multiple Popeyes franchisees move into bankruptcy, with dozens of locations closing.

RBI also stepped in and purchased one of its key franchisees.

"Carrols is the largest Burger King franchisee in the United States today, operating 1,022 Burger King restaurants in 23 states that generated approximately $1.8 billion of system sales during the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2023," RBI said in a news release. Carrols also owns and operates 60 Popeyes restaurants in six states." 

The multichain company made the move after two of its large franchisees, Premier Kings and Meridian, saw multiple locations not purchased when they reached auction after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. In that case, RBI bought select locations but allowed others to close.

Burger King lost hundreds of restaurants in 2023.

Image source: Chen Jianli/Xinhua via Getty

Another fast-food chain faces bankruptcy problems

Bojangles may not be as big a name as Burger King or Popeye's, but it's a popular chain with more than 800 restaurants in eight states.

"Bojangles is a Carolina-born restaurant chain specializing in craveable Southern chicken, biscuits and tea made fresh daily from real recipes, and with a friendly smile," the chain says on its website. "Founded in 1977 as a single location in Charlotte, our beloved brand continues to grow nationwide."

Like RBI, Bojangles uses a franchise model, which makes it dependent on the financial health of its operators. The company ultimately saw all its Maryland locations close due to the financial situation of one of its franchisees.

Unlike. RBI, Bojangles is not public — it was taken private by Durational Capital Management LP and Jordan Co. in 2018 — which means the company does not disclose its financial information to the public. 

That makes it hard to know whether overall softness for the brand contributed to the chain seeing its five Maryland locations after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

Bojangles has a messy bankruptcy situation

Even though the locations still appear on the Bojangles website, they have been shuttered since late 2023. The locations were operated by Salim Kakakhail and Yavir Akbar Durranni. The partners operated under a variety of LLCs, including ABS Network, according to local news channel WUSA9

The station reported that the owners face a state investigation over complaints of wage theft and fraudulent W2s. In November Durranni and ABS Network filed for bankruptcy in New Jersey, WUSA9 reported.

"Not only do former employees say these men owe them money, WUSA9 learned the former owners owe the state, too, and have over $69,000 in back property taxes."

Former employees also say that the restaurant would regularly purchase fried chicken from Popeyes and Safeway when it ran out in their stores, the station reported. 

Bojangles sent the station a comment on the situation.

"The franchisee is no longer in the Bojangles system," the company said. "However, it is important to note in your coverage that franchisees are independent business owners who are licensed to operate a brand but have autonomy over many aspects of their business, including hiring employees and payroll responsibilities."

Kakakhail and Durranni did not respond to multiple requests for comment from WUSA9.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 p…

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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.3% below the average from 1972 to 2022.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.


Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 102.3. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

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