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Don’t Tell Powell, But US Rents Just Tumbled The Most On Record As Economy Craters

Don’t Tell Powell, But US Rents Just Tumbled The Most On Record As Economy Craters

There was a remarkable moment during today’s Jay Powell…

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Don't Tell Powell, But US Rents Just Tumbled The Most On Record As Economy Craters

There was a remarkable moment during today's Jay Powell post-FOMC presser, which revealed once again just how out of touch the Fed is when it comes to correctly evaluating the broader economy. Asked about the ongoing devastation in the housing market in general, and rent inflation in particular, Powell's response was the following:

  • *POWELL: POINT AT WHICH RENT INFLATION SLOWS IS STILL FAR AWAY
  • *POWELL: AT SOME POINT YOU'LL SEE RENTS COMING DOW

Here, Powell is doing two things; i) he is referring to the latest shelter/OER (owner equivalent rent) inflation data as reported by the CPI and which is indeed soaring...

... and ii) is dead wrong by making the exact same mistake that so many economists made last year when they did not realize just how high rent inflation will soar as it tracks real-time rental metrics, something we first explained last summer in ""What Rental Hyperinflation Looks Like: "Soaring Prices. Competition. Desperation", when we showed - without a shadow of a doubt - why inflation was not transitory (we now know that was the correct interpretation).

The bottom line, as we explained in "With Krugman Humiliated, This Is What Goldman Thinks True Rent Inflation Is", is that while the heavily-delayed CPI data is showing runaway inflation, what it is really showing is the state of the rental market 6-9 months ago.

What about the actual state of rents? For the answer we go to the latest monthly report from Apartment List which we have used consistently since early 2021, and where we find something stunning: rents just tumbled by the most on record!

As the AL blog writes in its latest monthly note, "the national index fell by 0.7 percent over the course of October, marking the second straight month-over-month decline, and the largest single month dip in the history of our index, going back to 2017."

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These past two months have marked a rapid cooldown in the market, but the timing of that cooldown is consistent with a seasonal trend that was typical in pre-pandemic years. Going forward it is likely that rents will continue falling in the coming months as we enter the winter slow season for the rental market.

Despite the monthly decline, rent growth over the course of this year continues to outpace the pre-pandemic trend, even as it has slowed significantly from last year’s peaks. So far in 2022 rents are up by a total of 5.9 percent, compared to a record 18 percent at this point in 2021. Year-over-year growth has decelerated rapidly since the start of the year, but it’s still likely that 2022 will end up being the second fastest year of rent growth since the start of our estimates.

The cooldown in rent growth is being mirrored by continued easing on the supply side of the market. Our vacancy index now stands at 5.5 percent, after a full year of gradual increases from a low of 4.1 percent last fall. In the past two months, this easing of the vacancy rate has picked up steam again, after plateauing a bit over the summer. That said, today’s vacancy rate remains below the pre-pandemic norm.

The recent slowdown has been geographically widespread. Rents decreased this month in 89 of the nation’s 100 largest cities in October. Boise, ID – one of the first rental markets to explode in the early phases of the pandemic – saw the sharpest rent decline among the nation’s 100 largest cities this month (-3.5 percent). At the metro level, we are continuing to see an ongoing cooldown in many of the recently booming Sun Belt markets. Las Vegas, Phoenix, Jacksonville, and Riverside have all seen rent growth of more than 30 percent since March 2020, but none of these metros has seen rents increase by more than 2 percent over the past twelve months.

Summarizing the above, Apartment List writes that "the national median rent increased by a record-setting 17.6 percent over the course of 2021. This rapid growth in rent prices is a key contributor to overall inflation, which is currently rising at its fastest pace in 40 years." Furthermore, now that virtually all economists - not just this website - refer to the Apartment list index, the consultance writes that "with inflation top-of-mind for policymakers and everyday Americans alike, Apartment List rent index is particularly relevant, since movements in market rents lead movements in average rents paid. As a result, our index can signal what is likely ahead for the housing component of the official inflation estimates produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

Thankfully, the Apartment List authords write, for the country’s renters, the national rent index has shown month-over-month growth decelerating quickly in recent months. "In fact, for the past two months, our index has actually been declining."

What does this mean for the CPI's OER and, eventually, the Fed which continues to just watch this badly lagging index while ignoring real-time indicators? Here is the answer:

Source: Apartment List

Translation: we are not only two months away from rents not only sliding a record-tying 4 months in a row, but we are also two months away from rent inflation turning flat (or negative) on the year. And the paradox: in two months is precisely when the (6-9 month delayed) OER inflation will peak and the Fed will be hiking with gusto and signaling that the market the terminal rate is 5% or more. This will happen just as the economy goes into freefall. A few months (or weeks) later the Fed will finally be scrambling to undo the biggest mistake it has ever done by pushing the US economy into a quasi-depression. Unfortunately, that particular U-turn won't have a happy ending.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/02/2022 - 18:00

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One more airline cracks down on lounge crowding in a way you won’t like

Qantas Airways is increasing the price of accessing its network of lounges by as much as 17%.

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Over the last two years, multiple airlines have dealt with crowding in their lounges. While they are designed as a luxury experience for a small subset of travelers, high numbers of people taking a trip post-pandemic as well as the different ways they are able to gain access through status or certain credit cards made it difficult for some airlines to keep up with keeping foods stocked, common areas clean and having enough staff to serve bar drinks at the rate that customers expect them.

In the fall of 2023, Delta Air Lines  (DAL)  caught serious traveler outcry after announcing that it was cracking down on crowding by raising how much one needs to spend for lounge access and limiting the number of times one can enter those lounges.

Related: Competitors pushed Delta to backtrack on its lounge and loyalty program changes

Some airlines saw the outcry with Delta as their chance to reassure customers that they would not raise their fees while others waited for the storm to pass to quietly implement their own increases.

A photograph captures a Qantas Airways lounge in Sydney, Australia.

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This is how much more you'll have to pay for Qantas lounge access

Australia's flagship carrier Qantas Airways  (QUBSF)  is the latest airline to announce that it would raise the cost accessing the 24 lounges across the country as well as the 600 international lounges available at airports across the world through partner airlines.

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Unlike other airlines which grant access primarily after reaching frequent flyer status, Qantas also sells it through a membership — starting from April 18, 2024, prices will rise from $600 Australian dollars ($392 USD)  to $699 AUD ($456 USD) for one year, $1,100 ($718 USD) to $1,299 ($848 USD) for two years and $2,000 AUD ($1,304) to lock in the rate for four years.

Those signing up for lounge access for the first time also currently pay a joining fee of $99 AUD ($65 USD) that will rise to $129 AUD ($85 USD).

The airline also allows customers to purchase their membership with Qantas Points they collect through frequent travel; the membership fees are also being raised by the equivalent amount in points in what adds up to as much as 17% — from 308,000 to 399,900 to lock in access for four years.

Airline says hikes will 'cover cost increases passed on from suppliers'

"This is the first time the Qantas Club membership fees have increased in seven years and will help cover cost increases passed on from a range of suppliers over that time," a Qantas spokesperson confirmed to Simple Flying. "This follows a reduction in the membership fees for several years during the pandemic."

The spokesperson said the gains from the increases will go both towards making up for inflation-related costs and keeping existing lounges looking modern by updating features like furniture and décor.

While the price increases also do not apply for those who earned lounge access through frequent flyer status or change what it takes to earn that status, Qantas is also introducing even steeper increases for those renewing a membership or adding additional features such as spouse and partner memberships.

In some cases, the cost of these features will nearly double from what members are paying now.

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Star Wars icon gives his support to Disney, Bob Iger

Disney shareholders have a huge decision to make on April 3.

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Disney's  (DIS)  been facing some headwinds up top, but its leadership just got backing from one of the company's more prominent investors.

Star Wars creator George Lucas put out of statement in support of the company's current leadership team, led by CEO Bob Iger, ahead of the April 3 shareholders meeting which will see investors vote on the company's 12-member board.

"Creating magic is not for amateurs," Lucas said in a statement. "When I sold Lucasfilm just over a decade ago, I was delighted to become a Disney shareholder because of my long-time admiration for its iconic brand and Bob Iger’s leadership. When Bob recently returned to the company during a difficult time, I was relieved. No one knows Disney better. I remain a significant shareholder because I have full faith and confidence in the power of Disney and Bob’s track record of driving long-term value. I have voted all of my shares for Disney’s 12 directors and urge other shareholders to do the same."

Related: Disney stands against Nelson Peltz as leadership succession plan heats up

Lucasfilm was acquired by Disney for $4 billion in 2012 — notably under the first term of Iger. He received over 37 million in shares of Disney during the acquisition.

Lucas' statement seems to be an attempt to push investors away from the criticism coming from The Trian Partners investment group, led by Nelson Peltz. The group, owns about $3 million in shares of the media giant, is pushing two candidates for positions on the board, which are Peltz and former Disney CFO Jay Rasulo.

HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 14: George Lucas attends the Los Angeles Premiere of LucasFilms' "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" at Dolby Theatre on June 14, 2023 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic)

Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/Getty Images

Peltz and Co. have called out a pair of Disney directors — Michael Froman and Maria Elena Lagomasino — for their lack of experience in the media space.

Related: Women's basketball is gaining ground, but is March Madness ready to rival the men's game?

Blackwells Capital is also pushing three of its candidates to take seats during the early April shareholder meeting, though Reuters has reported that the firm has been supportive of the company's current direction.

Disney has struggled in recent years amid the changes in media and the effects of the pandemic — which triggered the return of Iger at the helm in late 2022. After going through mass layoffs in the spring of 2023 and focusing on key growth brands, the company has seen a steady recovery with its stock up over 25% year-to-date and around 40% for the last six months.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Another airline is making lounge fees more expensive

Qantas Airways is increasing the price of accessing its network of lounges by as much as 17%.

Published

on

Over the last two years, multiple airlines have dealt with crowding in their lounges. While they are designed as a luxury experience for a small subset of travelers, high numbers of people taking a trip post-pandemic as well as the different ways they are able to gain access through status or certain credit cards made it difficult for some airlines to keep up with keeping foods stocked, common areas clean and having enough staff to serve bar drinks at the rate that customers expect them.

In the fall of 2023, Delta Air Lines  (DAL)  caught serious traveler outcry after announcing that it was cracking down on crowding by raising how much one needs to spend for lounge access and limiting the number of times one can enter those lounges.

Related: Competitors pushed Delta to backtrack on its lounge and loyalty program changes

Some airlines saw the outcry with Delta as their chance to reassure customers that they would not raise their fees while others waited for the storm to pass to quietly implement their own increases.

A photograph captures a Qantas Airways lounge in Sydney, Australia.

Shutterstock

This is how much more you'll have to pay for Qantas lounge access

Australia's flagship carrier Qantas Airways  (QUBSF)  is the latest airline to announce that it would raise the cost accessing the 24 lounges across the country as well as the 600 international lounges available at airports across the world through partner airlines.

More Travel:

Unlike other airlines which grant access primarily after reaching frequent flyer status, Qantas also sells it through a membership — starting from April 18, 2024, prices will rise from $600 Australian dollars ($392 USD)  to $699 AUD ($456 USD) for one year, $1,100 ($718 USD) to $1,299 ($848 USD) for two years and $2,000 AUD ($1,304) to lock in the rate for four years.

Those signing up for lounge access for the first time also currently pay a joining fee of $99 AUD ($65 USD) that will rise to $129 AUD ($85 USD).

The airline also allows customers to purchase their membership with Qantas Points they collect through frequent travel; the membership fees are also being raised by the equivalent amount in points in what adds up to as much as 17% — from 308,000 to 399,900 to lock in access for four years.

Airline says hikes will 'cover cost increases passed on from suppliers'

"This is the first time the Qantas Club membership fees have increased in seven years and will help cover cost increases passed on from a range of suppliers over that time," a Qantas spokesperson confirmed to Simple Flying. "This follows a reduction in the membership fees for several years during the pandemic."

The spokesperson said the gains from the increases will go both towards making up for inflation-related costs and keeping existing lounges looking modern by updating features like furniture and décor.

While the price increases also do not apply for those who earned lounge access through frequent flyer status or change what it takes to earn that status, Qantas is also introducing even steeper increases for those renewing a membership or adding additional features such as spouse and partner memberships.

In some cases, the cost of these features will nearly double from what members are paying now.

Read More

Continue Reading

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