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Dollar’s Bounce: Nearly Over?

Dollar’s Bounce: Nearly Over?

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Often, there seem to be one or two drivers of the foreign exchange market, but now there are several cross-currents.  Sterling's weakness is a phenomenon of its own making.  US-China tensions continue to run high as Washington has ratcheted up pressure on China and is insisting on the September 15 deadline for TikTok to change ownership or be banned.  Beijing would rather see it shuttered than sold.  The high-flying US NASDAQ has pulled back from the record highs set at the start of the month by 10%, but bottom-picker have been met with overhead supply and profit-taking.  Oil prices moved sharply lower for the second consecutive week. November Brent fell around 12%, and October WTI tumbled 14% over the past two weeks to levels not seen in three or four months.  

Then there is the dynamic within the foreign exchange market itself.  On September 1, the euro pushed above $1.20, sterling was approaching $1.35, and the Australian dollar poked above $0.7400.  The greenback push below CAD1.30 for the first time since January.  Comments by the ECB's Lane about the role of the exchange rate as an input into its economic models and forecasts spurred a dollar short-squeeze rally.  We had anticipated that after the ECB meeting was out of the way, the market's attention would turn to the FOMC meeting (September 15-16), where the outcome is likely to reinforce the dovish implications of adopting an average inflation target, around which there is extensive "strategic ambiguity."   Below we fine-tune this scenario.  

Dollar Index:  With a couple of minor even if notable exceptions, the Dollar Index has been confined to a 92.00-94.00 trading range since late July.  It has been trending broadly sideways.  It traded at its highest level in nearly a month in the middle of last week near 93.65, just above the upper Bollinger Band for the first time in several months.  The MACDs are trending higher, and the Slow Stochastic is just below overbought territory.  The 92.70 level seen around last week's ECB meeting corresponds to a (50%) retracement of the rally from September 1.   A move above the 94.00 area would target 94.75-95.50.  

Euro: The euro snapped a six-day slide in the middle of last week, a day before the ECB meeting.  It will begin the new week with a three-day advance in tow.  Lagarde's effort to downplay the euro's strength saw the market bid it a few ticks through the (61.8%) retracement objective of the slide that began after it poked above $1.20 on September 1.  Both the MACD and Slow Stochastics have nearly completely unwound the stretched condition and appear poised to turn higher in the coming days.  We continue to believe the break from this range takes place to the upside, but the range affair can persist a bit longer. 

Japanese Yen:   The dollar has been in an exceptionally narrow trading range against the Japanese yen.  The nearly 60 pip range was among the smallest weekly ranges of the year.  It did not stray more than 30 pips in either direction of JPY106.10.  For the third consecutive week, the dollar recorded lower highs and higher lows.  The momentum indicators do not appear helpful.  More broadly, the dollar is hovering around the middle of a JPY105 to JPY107 trading range.  

Britsh Pound:  Sterling was pounded last week.  It was marked down by almost 3.7%, the most in six months.  Part of it was dollar strength.  After all, the greenback strengthened against most of the major currencies.  However, the real driver was reneging on the Withdrawal Agreement that is seen as making a disorderly exit from the standstill agreement more likely.  The Bank of England meets next week, and some groundwork for additional easing as early as November seems reasonable to expect.  Sterling was pushing toward $1.35 on September 1 and made a low ahead of the weekend just below $1.2765.  The 200-day moving average is near $1.2735, and the (61.8%) retracement of the rally since the end of June is about $1.2710.   The (38.2%) retracement of the rally since the March low is a little below $1.2700.  The next important retracement (50%) is closer to $1.2455.  Initial resistance now is likely around $1.2950.  

Canadian Dollar:  The US dollar rose in four of last week's five sessions to snap an eight-week slide against the Canadian dollar.  It was only the second weekly advance here in Q3.  The bounce faded in the middle of the week near CAD1.3260, a few ticks ahead of the (38.2%) retracement of the decline since the end of June.  The next retracement objective (50%) is around CAD1.3320.  The five-day moving average has crossed above the 20-day for the first time since July, and the momentum indicators are trending higher.  A loss of CAD1.3100 would confirm the correction is over.  

Australian Dollar:  The pullback from the high above $0.7400 on (September 1) stopped at the (38.2%) retracement of the leg up from the end of June found near $0.7190.  Initial support is now pegged around $0.7240.  The MACD is still headed lower, but the Slow Stochastic appears to be bottoming.  A move above last week's high near $0.7330 would likely confirm the correction is over, and another run higher has begun. 

Mexican Peso:  The greenback's slide was extended for the fifth consecutive week against the Mexican peso.  In an outside down day on Wednesday, the dollar was pushed below the 200-day moving average (~MXN21.59) for the first time since before the pandemic.  It has not been able to resurface above it.  The next big target is MXN21.00.  The momentum indicators are not helpful here, but it has been fraying the lower Bollinger Band (~MXN21.30).  A modest bounce just to the 20-day moving average (~MXN21.82), the middle of the Bollinger Band,  would be a large move of a couple percentage points. 

Chinese Yuan:   The greenback's downtrend against the redback has now extended for the seventh consecutive week.   It has risen in only one week so far in Q3.  Since the end of June, the dollar has fallen by about 3.5% against the yuan.  Given that it is so highly managed, one must conclude that officials see the modest strength as desirable.  Some benefits cheaper imports from the US may attract international capital, as market-liberalization measures, some of which are part of the US-China trade agreement, are implemented.   It is difficult to know how far officials will allow things to go, but a near-term trading range between roughly CNY6.81 to CNY6.86 may be emerging.  

Gold:  The lower end of the recent trading range around $1900 was successfully tested last Tuesday, and the precious metal recovered to almost $1967 before consolidating ahead of the weekend.  The MACD and Slow Stochastic appear poised to turn higher.  While a gain above $1970 will appear constructive, gold has not been above $2000 for a month now.  

Oil:  October WTI fell for the second week for the first time since April.  However, in recent sessions, a shelf has been carved in the $36.00-$36.60 area, and the Slow Stochastic appears set to turn higher. That area also corresponds to a (38.2%) retracement of the rally since those April lows.  The next retracement target (50%) is around $33.50.  It managed to finish the week above the lower Bollinger Band (~$37.05). The $39-$40 area may offer a formidable cap.  

US Rates:  Both the core PPI and CPI readings were above consensus forecasts, but it did not prevent the 10-year yield from falling five basis points last week to about 66 bp.  In early August, the yield spent a few days south of 60 bp, but since the middle of June, it has mostly held above it.   At the same time, it has not been above 80 bp either, which is well below the current rate of CPI (1.3% and 1.7%, for the headline and core, respectively).  The Treasury re-opens previously sold 20-year bonds and 10-year TIPS in next week's auction.  The 2-10-year yield curve eased to about 54 bp by the end of the week, which captures primarily the softer 10-year yield.  The curve is at its 20-day average.  The market anticipates a dovish Fed, noting downside risks and the lack of fiscal stimulus.   

S&P 500:  An outside down day on Thursday saw follow-through selling ahead of the weekend that took the S&P 500 to a new low since the record high on September 2. The benchmark bounced back after approaching 3300.  It closed slightly higher ahead of the weekend, but not higher than it opened.  The momentum indicators are still pointing lower.  The 3277 area houses the (38.2%) retracement of the gains since the mid-June low.  Pushing through, there could signal another 2% decline.   A move back above 3420 would stabilize the technical tone.  A rally to new record highs was beyond the imagination in the dark days of March, and many have doubted it ever since--the gap between Wall Street and Main Street makes it unsustainable.   The question is whether this pullback marks the end of the rally, or is it a correction?  While we still see it as most likely a correction, it does not mean that a bottom is in place.  




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Fighting the Surveillance State Begins with the Individual

It’s a well-known fact at this point that in the United States and most of the so-called free countries that there is a robust surveillance state in…

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It’s a well-known fact at this point that in the United States and most of the so-called free countries that there is a robust surveillance state in place, collecting data on the entire populace. This has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt by people like Edward Snowden, a National Security Agency (NSA) whistleblower who exposed that the NSA was conducting mass surveillance on US citizens and the world as a whole. The NSA used applications like those from Prism Systems to piggyback on corporations and the data collection their users had agreed to in the terms of service. Google would scan all emails sent to a Gmail address to use for personalized advertising. The government then went to these companies and demanded the data, and this is what makes the surveillance state so interesting. Neo-Marxists like Shoshana Zuboff have dubbed this “surveillance capitalism.” In China, the mass surveillance is conducted at a loss. Setting up closed-circuit television cameras and hiring government workers to be a mandatory editorial staff for blogs and social media can get quite expensive. But if you parasitically leech off a profitable business practice it means that the surveillance state will turn a profit, which is a great asset and an even greater weakness for the system. You see, when that is what your surveillance state is predicated on you’ve effectively given your subjects an opt-out button. They stop using services that spy on them. There is software and online services that are called “open source,” which refers to software whose code is publicly available and can be viewed by anyone so that you can see exactly what that software does. The opposite of this, and what you’re likely already familiar with, is proprietary software. Open-source software generally markets itself as privacy respecting and doesn’t participate in data collection. Services like that can really undo the tricky situation we’ve found ourselves in. It’s a simple fact of life that when the government is given a power—whether that be to regulate, surveil, tax, or plunder—it is nigh impossible to wrestle it away from the state outside somehow disposing of the state entirely. This is why the issue of undoing mass surveillance is of the utmost importance. If the government has the power to spy on its populace, it will. There are people, like the creators of The Social Dilemma, who think that the solution to these privacy invasions isn’t less government but more government, arguing that data collection should be taxed to dissuade the practice or that regulation needs to be put into place to actively prevent abuses. This is silly to anyone who understands the effect regulations have and how the internet really works. You see, data collection is necessary. You can’t have email without some elements of data collection because it’s simply how the protocol functions. The issue is how that data is stored and used. A tax on data collection itself will simply become another cost of doing business. A large company like Google can afford to pay a tax. But a company like Proton Mail, a smaller, more privacy-respecting business, likely couldn’t. Proton Mail’s business model is based on paid subscriptions. If there were additional taxes imposed on them, it’s possible that they would not be able to afford the cost and would be forced out of the market. To reiterate, if one really cares about the destruction of the surveillance state, the first step is to personally make changes to how you interact with online services and to whom you choose to give your data.

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Stock Market Today: Stocks turn higher as Treasury yields retreat; big tech earnings up next

A pullback in Treasury yields has stocks moving higher Monday heading into a busy earnings week and a key 2-year bond auction later on Tuesday.

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Updated at 11:52 am EDT U.S. stocks turned higher Monday, heading into the busiest earnings week of the year on Wall Street, amid a pullback in Treasury bond yields that followed the first breach of 5% for 10-year notes since 2007. Investors, however, continue to track developments in Israel's war with Hamas, which launched its deadly attack from Gaza three weeks ago, as leaders around the region, and the wider world, work to contain the fighting and broker at least a form of cease-fire. Humanitarian aid is also making its way into Gaza, through the territory's border with Egypt, as officials continue to work for the release of more than 200 Israelis taken hostage by Hamas during the October 7 attack. Those diplomatic efforts eased some of the market's concern in overnight trading, but the lingering risk that regional adversaries such as Iran, or even Saudi Arabia, could be drawn into the conflict continues to blunt risk appetite. Still, the U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies and acts as the safe-haven benchmark in times of market turmoil, fell 0.37% in early New York trading 105.773, suggesting some modest moves into riskier assets. The Japanese yen, however, eased past the 150 mark in overnight dealing, a level that has some traders awaiting intervention from the Bank of Japan and which may have triggered small amounts of dollar sales and yen purchases. In the bond market, benchmark 10-year note yields breached the 5% mark in overnight trading, after briefly surpassing that level late last week for the first time since 2007, but were last seen trading at 4.867% ahead of $141 billion in 2-year, 5-year and 7-year note auctions later this week. Global oil prices were also lower, following two consecutive weekly gains that has take Brent crude, the global pricing benchmark, firmly past $90 a barrel amid supply disruption concerns tied to the middle east conflict. Brent contracts for December delivery were last seen $1.06 lower on the session at $91.07 per barrel while WTI futures contract for the same month fell $1.36 to $86.72 per barrel. Market volatility gauges were also active, with the CBOE Group's VIX index hitting a fresh seven-month high of $23.08 before easing to $20.18 later in the session. That level suggests traders are expecting ranges on the S&P 500 of around 1.26%, or 53 points, over the next month. A busy earnings week also indicates the likelihood of elevated trading volatility, with 158 S&P 500 companies reporting third quarter earnings over the next five days, including mega cap tech names such as Google parent Alphabet  (GOOGL) - Get Free Report, Microsoft  (MSFT) - Get Free Report, retail and cloud computing giant Amazon  (AMZN) - Get Free Report and Facebook owner Meta Platforms  (META) - Get Free Report. "It’s shaping up to be a big week for the market and it comes as the S&P 500 is testing a key level—the four-month low it set earlier this month," said Chris Larkin, managing director for trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. "How the market responds to that test may hinge on sentiment, which often plays a larger-than-average role around this time of year," he added. "And right now, concerns about rising interest rates and geopolitical turmoil have the potential to exacerbate the market’s swings." Heading into the middle of the trading day on Wall Street, the S&P 500, which is down 8% from its early July peak, the highest of the year, was up 10 points, or 0.25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which slumped into negative territory for the year last week, was marked 10 points lower while the Nasdaq, which fell 4.31% last week, was up 66 points, or 0.51%. In overseas markets, Europe's Stoxx 600 was marked 0.11% lower by the close of Frankfurt trading, with markets largely tracking U.S. stocks as well as the broader conflict in Israel. In Asia, a  slump in China stocks took the benchmark CSI 300 to a fresh 2019 low and pulled the region-wide MSCI ex-Japan 0.72% lower into the close of trading.
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iPhone Maker Foxconn Investigated By Chinese Authorities

Foxconn, the Taiwanese company that manufactures iPhones on behalf of Apple (AAPL), is being investigated by Chinese authorities, according to multiple…

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Foxconn, the Taiwanese company that manufactures iPhones on behalf of Apple (AAPL), is being investigated by Chinese authorities, according to multiple media reports. Foxconn’s business has been searched by Chinese authorities and China’s main tax authority has conducted inspections of Foxconn’s manufacturing operations in the Chinese provinces of Guangdong and Jiangsu. At the same time, China’s natural-resources department has begun onsite investigations into Foxconn’s land use in Henan and Hubei provinces within China. Foxconn has manufacturing facilities focused on Apple products in three of the Chinese provinces where authorities are carrying out searches. While headquartered in Taiwan, Foxconn has a huge manufacturing presence in China and is a large employer in the nation of 1.4 billion people. The investigations suggest that China is ramping up pressure on the company as Foxconn considers major investments in India, and as presidential elections approach in Taiwan. Foxconn founder Terry Gou said in August of this year that he intends to run for the Taiwanese presidency. He has resigned from the company’s board of directors but continues to hold a 12.5% stake in the company. Gou is currently in fourth place in the polls ahead of the election that is scheduled to be held in January 2024. The potential impact on Apple and its iPhone manufacturing comes amid rising political tensions between politicians in Washington, D.C. and Beijing. Apple’s stock has risen 16% over the last 12 months and currently trades at $172.88 U.S. per share.  

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