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Deep-dive into one state’s telehealth use shows key trends and policy opportunities

In just three years, millions of people across Michigan’s two huge peninsulas have taken advantage of their newfound ability to connect with their doctors,…

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In just three years, millions of people across Michigan’s two huge peninsulas have taken advantage of their newfound ability to connect with their doctors, nurses and therapists through a computer or phone, a new report shows.

Credit: University of Michigan

In just three years, millions of people across Michigan’s two huge peninsulas have taken advantage of their newfound ability to connect with their doctors, nurses and therapists through a computer or phone, a new report shows.

Between 11% and 17% of all appointments to evaluate symptoms or discuss treatment now take place virtually, depending on the type of insurance, the analysis shows.

That’s up from less than 1% of such visits before the COVID-19 pandemic suddenly spurred temporary flexibility in health insurance rules for telehealth, according to the report by a team from the University of Michigan Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation.

The team used insurance data to prepare the report for the Michigan Health Endowment Fund and the Ethel and James Flinn Foundation.

Their analysis shows how telehealth has especially helped the 1 in 5 Michiganders who have mental health care needs – most notably those who live in the 38 counties that have few or no behavioral health care providers.

It also reveals lags in telehealth’s use by those living in rural areas, especially areas with lower percentages of homes with broadband Internet access. The team also examined telehealth across state lines, including by ‘snowbirds’ who split their time between Michigan and Florida.

Policy implications

Temporary telehealth rules will expire next year. So the report’s authors make recommendations they hope policymakers and private health insurance companies will note as they plan telehealth coverage for the long-term.

“From the Upper Peninsula to Detroit, and everywhere in between, it’s clear that Michiganders have embraced telehealth for the access and convenience it provides, as well as the original goal of reduced exposure to coronavirus,” said Chad Elllimoottil, M.D., M.S., the U-M researcher and telehealth expert who led the team. “But the future of telehealth in our state and beyond will depend on the decisions policymakers and insurance leaders make in coming months, not just for coverage but also for expansion of Internet access and the supply of mental health providers.”

Ellimoottil directs IHPI’s Telehealth Research Incubator and serves as medical director of Virtual Care for the University of Michigan Medical Group, part of U-M’s academic medical center called Michigan Medicine.

He worked on the report with researchers Ziwei Zhu, Xinwei Hi, Monica Van Til, who together analyzed data on traditional fee-for-service Medicare and some data from patients covered by private managed care plans from Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan, as well as with IHPI member Sarah Clark, M.P.H., who analyzed Medicaid data.

On August 10, Ellimoottil will speak about the findings and more at a webinar hosted by the Michigan Health Endowment Fund; information and a link for registration are here.

“This report highlights how telehealth has transformed the way we think about access to care across Michigan, including dramatic shifts in the delivery of behavioral health care,” said Becky Cienki, director of Behavioral Health and Special Projects at the Michigan Health Endowment Fund. “We’re excited for the valuable insights revealed in the data and the ways they will equip providers and policymakers to make informed, effective decisions that maximize the benefits of telehealth to expand access to care.”

Key findings:

Telehealth visits by insurance source:

In all, 11% of visits by Medicare participants were done via telehealth in 2022, compared with 13% of Medicaid-covered visits and 17% of visits billed to private insurance. In addition, 10% of people with Medicare coverage who sought care at ‘safety net’ clinics were seen via telehealth.

The overall volume of outpatient visits by people covered by both traditional Medicare and private insurance remained steady from mid-2020 through the end of 2022, so Ellimoottil notes that this indicates telehealth substituted for appointments that would otherwise have been in person, rather than adding to the number of visits.

Rural vs. non-rural:

Before the pandemic, Medicare and other insurers had narrow requirements for telehealth, focused on people living in rural areas. But they could only get coverage for such visits if they left home and went to a local clinic to sign on.

The new study finds that in 2019, rural counties in central and northern Michigan had the highest rates of telehealth visits per 1,000 residents. But by 2020 and 2021, the counties with the highest rates of telehealth use were also the most populated counties, especially the five counties of southeast Michigan where nearly half of the state’s population lives.

In all, about 31% of people living in rural counties had a telehealth visit, compared with 46% of those in non-rural counties. The authors note that continued coverage of telehealth from home, rather than reverting to access only from rural clinics, will be important.

Mental and behavioral health:

Telehealth has long been seen as a potential option for delivering care for mental health conditions and substance use disorders including drug and alcohol addiction, because it often doesn’t require a “hands on” approach. Plus, patients often feel a stigma against seeking treatment in person, and there is both a shortage and uneven distribution of providers trained to care for patients with these conditions.

Telehealth use: The new report includes an analysis that confirms previous estimates that 1 in 5 people in Michigan have a mental health or behavioral health condition at any given time. Past studies have suggested that 40% of all adults with mental health conditions, and 80% of those with addiction issues, do not receive care.

The report shows that almost half of all visits for mental/behavioral health care now happen by telehealth among Michiganders covered by traditional Medicare, based on two different analyses.

They also determined which counties have patients receiving the most mental and behavioral health care. For people with Medicaid coverage living in these high-demand counties, the percentage having mental and behavioral health care visits by telehealth was much lower than it was for Medicare, at about 17% of such visits.

Provider shortage: The report also shows that half of all Michigan counties have less than 10 mental health specialists, defined as practicing specialists in psychiatry, geriatric psychiatry, neuropsychiatry, psychology, clinical psychology, licensed clinical social work, or addiction medicine. One in 5 Michigan counties have one or no such providers.

The team focused on 38 counties with the most dire shortages. In those counties, 57% of all visits with such providers took part via telehealth, for patients with traditional Medicare.

Getting help outside shortage counties: The researchers drilled further to look at the locations where patients lived compared with the location where their mental/behavioral health provider practiced, to see if the availability of telehealth was making it easier to get care from providers based in areas with a higher supply of providers.

In all, 82% of mental health visits by people living in counties with mental health provider shortages involved providers outside the patient’s home county. Of those, the majority were conducted via telehealth – in fact, out-of-county telehealth made up 47% of all mental health visits for people living in these shortage counties. 

In 13 counties, all mental/behavioral health visits by county residents were with providers in a different county.

These data show that telehealth meant greater access to mental health care for people living in areas that lack providers of such care.

Broadband Internet access:

The higher the percentage of households that have broadband Internet access in a county, the higher the use of telehealth by Medicare participants there.

The authors note that efforts to increase broadband availability statewide, but especially in the 29 counties that fall below the median level of broadband availability (82% of households), could increase the use of telehealth. 

Demographics:

The researchers saw minimal differences in telehealth use along lines of age, gender, race/ethnicity, though women and people under age 65 were slightly more likely to use telehealth. Interestingly, they did see a higher rate of telehealth use among people who are eligible for both Medicaid because of low income and Medicare because of age or disability status; this “dual-eligible” population accounted for 23% of all telehealth users covered by traditional Medicare in 2020.

While the new report did not look at what percentage of telehealth visits were done through a telephone voice connection only, previous research by U-M teams suggests that discontinuation of insurance coverage for phone visits may reduce telehealth access for patients who are older, African-American, need an interpreter, rely on Medicaid, and/or live in areas with limited broadband access.

Snowbirds and other out-of-state telehealth:

The temporary pandemic rules that allowed patients to see providers who are located in a different state led to more appointments of this kind in Michigan. But the percentage of all telehealth visits by Michiganders with Medicare that involved out-of-state providers stayed the same at about 3%.

More than a quarter (28%) of all visits by Michiganders who saw a provider in another state virtually involved providers in Florida. These are likely Michigan “snowbirds” who spend part of their year in Florida and may have appointments with their providers there even when they’re back in Michigan.

Most of the other visits with out-of-state providers involved providers in states that neighbor Michigan. Ellimoottil says this suggests that policymakers should prioritize medical licensing reciprocity agreements with neighboring states and Florida, to give patients continued access to this kind of care.

 

Learn more about telehealth research and policy work at IHPI: https://ihpi.umich.edu/telehealth-research-and-policy

Learn more about the Michigan Health Endowment Fund’s telehealth work: https://mihealthfund.org/issues/telehealth

In addition to the report team, the analysis involved members of the Susan B. Meister Child Health Evaluation and Research (CHEAR) Center who worked on the Medicaid analysis, and data from the Michigan Value Collaborative which provided access to data fromBCBSM Preferred Provider Organization Commercial insurance claims data from 103 acute care hospitals and 40 physician organizations across Michigan.

Telehealth in Michigan: Insights and Data for Effective Policymaking
https://mihealthfund.org/news/publications/telehealth-in-michigan

 

 

 


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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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